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Turf Deli Free Form Guides and Tips - Rupert Clarke Stakes 2015

CAULFIELD: SIR RUPERT CLARKE STAKES - 26th Sept 2015
Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: FINE - Rail: TRUE

Betting Portfolio ($50):
Bumper meeting at Caulfield and this is normally one of our favourite meetings of the year. Or at least it was...The Underwood + Rupert Clarke + Guineas Preludes + Naturalism was one of the best meetings on the racing calendar until the MRC split it up a few years back. Since then, the Guineas Preludes have been added back and now the Underwood has been added back, and well, we are pretty much back to where we started regardless.

Fine weather and a firm track and the rail goes back to TRUE here. Last week here the rail was OUT 9M and the racing pattern did tend to favour those finishing on late, but back to TRUE here for the first time in 3 meetings the best ground should be along the fence. Expect the racing pattern to tend towards those racing on speed and close to the rails, so inside barriers might be important. Note that we are racing at Caulfield next Saturday too, on Grand Final day, and again the week after for the Caulfield Guineas, so that is going to be 4 Saturdays in a row at Caulfield. So you might as well buy up one of those new apartments now and save on the travel time.

Some really good racing today and the spring stars should start to step up. Most of the races have very clear one or two stand out horses in the betting, but not sure there arenít more chances with a bit of depth in most of these fields. However, plenty of solid $4 chances who should win so will be mainly betting straight out today.

RESULTS: Even racing and they can win running on late, but the later races do tend to favour on pacers on a sunny drying day. We are frustratingly close in the Betting Portfolio with lots of narrow 2nds, but couldn't score a decent collect.

BEST BET: Race 7: 1-FAWKNER $7 WIN 2nd W=$3.50
Pretty much the best WFA horse in Australia at the moment and has been consistently at the top of his game for a few years now. Won in a bunched finish 1st up, beating many of these and he probably has the most improvement to come out of all of them. Really just a matter of whether the (6) gets back to his best form after a poor run last start to issue a challenge, and as long as he doesnít get stuck back on the rails from the inside barrier here he should be the one to beat. Think the $3.60 odds look pretty good for a horse that seems to have his rivals covered here and happy to back straight out.
RESULTS: Took a little while to get moving in the straight, but was hitting the line hard to only just miss. Maybe he was just a little flat 2nd up but you would think he has more improvement to come and will beat these next start.

BEST WIN: Race 4: 7-ALBONETTI $7 WIN X
Got stung a few times following this one as she dropped too far back in the run and ran on late, but too late. Last start she was ridden more forward Ė and guess what happened Ė she won! Fancy that! Liked the way she extended away from them last start and she ran some good races last spring and most of these are going nowhere fast. Now she is out to the 2400M and in winning form, and letís hope they go forward again she should be the one to beat at around $4.
RESULTS: Gets an absolutely torrid run, caught 3 wide, had to go forward early, then another runner took off early and around them. Was holding down a placing till the last 50 metres - forgive the run.

BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 9-HE OR SHE $5 EW 4th W=$4.90
Well performed WA galloper who is having a spring preparation and win strike rate suggests he has a fair bit of ability. Fitter for the 2 runs in and both have looked promising, particularly last start when he finished very strongly to not quite grab the (6), who he meets a handy 2kgs better off here today. Just looks ready to win based on last 2 runs, and may be going places this spring, and this field isnít overly strong. Each way at around $5.
RESULTS: Loomed on the home turn like he was going to be in the finish, but the on pacers kicked. Had every chance.

BEST EACH WAY: Race 1: 9-JAPHILS $5 WIN 2nd W=$8.20
QUINELLA: Race 1: 9-JAPHILS, 11-MATILIJA x $2 2nd 9-JAPHILS=$8.20, X
QUINELLA: Race 1: 9-JAPHILS, 10-CATCH THAT CAT x $2 2nd 9-JAPHILS=$8.20, X
QUINELLA: Race 1: 9-JAPHILS, 6-PITTSBURGH FLYER x $1 2nd 9-JAPHILS=$8.20, X
This one seems to race best at Caulfield, and drawn well, with an apprentice claim, and first use of the track with the rail TRUE might scoot to the lead here and prove hard to run down. Was a beaten short priced favourite last start at Sandown, but wasnít beaten that far, and that was first run for 6 weeks, and better suited at this track. Letís back her straight out, and instead of taking an each way bet, take some quinellas with the (6), (10), (11) and look for a bigger collect as suspect she will be in the finish regardless at around $12, which looks very appealing odds.
RESULTS: Got very well backed, and did exactly what we hoped, ran to the lead and kicked and just got bobbed out in the finsh...Darn it.

BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 15-STRIKE FORCE $3 EW X
Going very left of centre in the Guineas Prelude, but not just sure how well most of the main contenders are going and often one with just a few starts steps up in this race coming off a maiden start (watch out for the (14) and (16) too). Quite liked the win of this one last start, didnít beat much, but sat handy and really extended away towards the line. Has been competitive in town against some of these previously as well in mid week company. Hopefully they will race handy again today from a wide barrier. Happy to have a little something at rough odds of around $21 and watch for betting moves in this race amongst the lightly raced ones.
RESULTS: Tough competitive race and didn't do much.

BEST ROUGH: Race 2: 5-GLORYLAND $2.50 EW 2nd W=$30.60, P=$5.50 = $13.75
This is mainly a protest vote against many of the pretenders going around in this race, in particular the 2-FIREHOUSE ROCK (looked the winner in both the Caulfield Classic and Autumn Classic here, and stopped) and the 12-KANSAS SUNFLOWER (who has often looked home in her races and not finished them off). Really ordinary field, but just canít go backing either of them again so letís give someone new a chance. This one is lightly raced with an OK record and should be fitter for the 4 runs in and the 1st try over the 2000M and should go to the lead here and may just stick on against a group that arenít that genuine. Happy to give it a try at around $26. Why not.
RESULTS: Found one totally out of the blue here, and he was pretty unlucky not to win. Led, but had to make two runs when one went early around him and was coming again on the line after being headed.

LAY OF THE DAY: Race 4: 1-EXCESS KNOWLEDGE at around $3.80 2nd W=$3.80
We have made this the Lay of the Day twice so far and been successful both times, so letís keep picking on him. Nasty Turf Deli. Really been pretty disappointing in all 3 Melbourne runs so far, last start here battled away but was hardly inspiring. Extra distance should suit and should race on the speed in a race with not that many in form chances, but top weight, coming off a only passable run, up in distance 700M and with a 4 week break happy to look to others again.
RESULTS: Bit lucky to get away with this one, loomed on the home turn like the winner and just didn't quite get there. Won't be taking this one on again and looks ready to win now.

TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet.
TRIFECTA: Race 8: 8,9 / 1,2,5,7,8,9,11,12,13,20 / 8,9,11,12,13 x $5 = 7.81% 3rd 8-UNDER THE LOURVE W=$5.30 / 1st 11-STRATUM STAR W=$9.60 / 2nd 12-DISPOSITION W=$3.70
Should be a good dividend in the feature race with a big field, so letís go a wide trifecta with our two main picks the 8-UNDER THE LOUVRE, 9-AMICUS to win from a stack of chances, from the main ones likely to be around the placings, and hope our best roughie the 13-FAST 'N' ROCKING gets into the finish somewhere. Trifecta pays if the favourite the 12-DISPOSITION misses the place in this. Note the (20) is an emergency and unlikely to get a run, but just let the bet run for the increased percentage if he doesnít get into the field.
RESULTS: Not far off a collect here, but the trifecta pay nothing so 8% of nothing is even less.

SPENT:$50
RETURN:$13.75
NET: $-36.25


The Tips:

Race 1: 9-JAPHILS, 11-MATILIJA, 10-CATCH THAT CAT
Race 2: 5-GLORYLAND, 4-MURAQABA, 12-KANSAS SUNFLOWER
Race 3: 9-SABATINI, 5-CRAFTINESS, 3-HARD STRIDE
Race 4: 7-ALBONETTI, 14-HARADAFULL, 9-SHENZHOU STEEDS
Race 5: 1-PASADENA GIRL, 7-MISS GUNPOWDER, 4-STAY WITH ME
Race 6: 15-STRIKE FORCE, 3-READY FOR VICTORY, 14-PURITAN
Race 7: 1-FAWKNER, 4-THE CLEANER, 5-MOURINHO
Race 8: 8-UNDER THE LOUVRE, 9-AMICUS, 12-DISPOSITION
Race 9: 9-HE OR SHE, 13-TAKENJA, 3-KENJORWOOD


RACE 1: RESULTS
Tips:
9-JAPHILS 2nd W=$8.20
11-MATILIJA
10-CATCH THAT CAT

RACE 2: RESULTS
Tips:
5-GLORYLAND 2nd W=$30.60 *** Best Rough of the Day ***
4-MURAQABA
12-KANSAS SUNFLOWER

RACE 3: RESULTS
Tips:
9-SABATINI 1st W=$5.30
5-CRAFTINESS
3-HARD STRIDE

RACE 4: RESULTS
Tips:
7-ALBONETTI
14-HARADAFULL SCR
9-SHENZHOU STEEDS

RACE 5: RESULTS
Tips:
1-PASADENA GIRL
7-MISS GUNPOWDER 1st W=$3.90
4-STAY WITH ME

RACE 6: RESULTS
Tips:
15-STRIKE FORCE
3-READY FOR VICTORY
14-PURITAN

RACE 7: RESULTS
Tips:
1-FAWKNER 2nd W=$3.50
4-THE CLEANER 3rd W=$6.90
5-MOURINHO 1st W=$19.60

Quinella=$31.00
Trifecta=$233.40

RACE 8: RESULTS
Tips:
8-UNDER THE LOUVRE 3rd W=$5.30
9-AMICUS
12-DISPOSITION 2nd W=$3.70

RACE 9: RESULTS
Tips:
9-HE OR SHE
13-TAKENJA
3-KENJORWOOD 1st W=$8.60





RACE 7: UNDERWOOD STAKES GROUP 1 1800M WFA
Tips:
1-FAWKNER 2nd W=$3.50
4-THE CLEANER 3rd W=$6.90
5-MOURINHO 1st W=$19.60

Quinella=$31.00
Trifecta=$233.40

Others: 6

Pace: LEADER DICTATES
Leaders: 4-THE CLEANER, 12-HI WORLD
Handy: 1-FAWKNER, 5-MOURINHO, 6-CONTRIBUTER, 7-WEARY, 9-MONGOLIAN KHAN, 10-VOLKSTOK'N'BARRELL
Back: 2-DANDINO, 3-SERTORIUS, 8-DIBAYANI, 11-MAGICOOL

Chances:
1-FAWKNER is pretty much the best WFA horse in Australia at the moment and it is amazing the level he has got to since previously being a dry track Flemington miler a few years back. Sparingly raced, but just seems to be all class and has produced for a few spring in a row now. Won the Caulfield Stakes 2nd up here last year off a 2nd in the Makybe Diva, so looks the one to beat in the Underwood this year coming off a win in that race this year. Firm track suits. Big plus is that he can race handy. Was a very bunched finish last start and most of them are going around again here, but he beat them all there so he should do it again. Main danger here is actually the barrier (2), and he may get stuck on the rails behind the 4-THE CLEANER, who rarely budges, so jockey might have to be aware to get him out into clear running. Definitely the one to beat. One to beat.2nd W=$3.50

4-THE CLEANER needs no introduction as the tough as anything front running stayer. Had a break out spring last year when he just kept leading and winning, but found the Cox Plate a bit too much, but still managed to back up again for a placing in the Emirates. Difference this spring is that he is specifically targeting the feature races, rather than them coming at the end of his preparation. Disappointed here back in April and there is some talk of him not being his best at Caulfield, but his 1st up run here in the Lawrence here was excellent when led, was headed and was coming back again on the line and probably would have won in a few more strides. Back to MV 2nd up in the Dato Tan he did what he normally does Ė jumps, leads and wins. Too easy. Interesting that they have gone to this race this year instead of the JRA Cup. Drawn barrier 1, good chance the track will favour on pacers, and unlikely to get much pressure up front. Think he is a genuine danger of beating the favourite here, and just keep an eye out if the racing pattern is towards on pacers as think that would push him up to top pick. Strong chance. 3rd W=$6.90

5-MOURINHO is a tough on pacer who we have a lot of time for, mainly because we have tipped him a few times and he has won for us. Solid win here 1st up when he was probably lucky to beat the (4) who was coming back at him on the line, and then was a bit disappointing at MV. Prepared to forgive that run though, he got stuck in exactly the wrong spot, on the rails behind 4-THE CLEANER and he has got stuck there a few times, which doesnít suit him as he canít make a rapid run and takes time to wind up. Rails wasnít the place to be that day either. Fitter for the 2 runs in and drawn so he can go forward and sit outside the leader today, which suits much better. Won the Peter Young here this track and distance in the Autumn and placed 5 from 8 at Caulfield. Think he is the value runner here, and if he gets back to his best form he is a winning chance at odds. Rough. 1st W=$19.60

6-CONTRIBUTER was a short priced favourite in the Dato Tan and the inside barrier didnít seem to suit and he was disappointing in the straight. Seemed to be rising the rapid ranks to WFA star mid year and there is a lack of a stand out WFA horse in Australia at the moment. Drawn out here is better, and he was dominant winning in his only start here last spring. Expect a much improved run as really didnít think he was suited in that race at MV 1st up. Excellent win strike rate, and can sit back and middle here in a small field off a genuine tempo. Watch the market to see if they are game to back him again Ė he did let some much lesser horses go past him last start. Hard to be too confident coming off a bad run, so wouldnít want to go taking too short odds again, but back to his best he can win this. Chance.

Place:
7-WEARY has actually been racing really well this time in. Fitter for the 3 runs in and mucked up the start at Caulfield in the Memsie, when the intention was to go forward from an outside barrier and still finished on quite well. Ridden cold last start and was making good ground out wide in the bunched finish. Actually quite liked those last 2 runs and there should be a good race for him this spring. Best form does appear to be on wet ground though and we get a dry track today. Not really proven over these longer trips. Should race a lot closer today in a smaller field. Think his last few runs have been pretty good so goes in as a solid place chance. Place.

8-DIBAYANI is an import having his first Australian preparation and seems to be coming along OK. Fitter for the 2 runs in and both runs have been full of merit, settling just off the speed, looming into the race at the right time Ė and finding one too good. You would think he will continue to improve as the distances increase, but the (4) has beaten him home the last 2 starts and suspect will do so again here. Place only.

9-MONGOLIAN KHAN is the classic staying 3YO trying his hand at this 4YO caper. Sensational win strike rate, but not a fan of running a place Ė it is victory Ė or nothing for this one. Not fully wound up for the 1st up run in the Makybe Diva where he was fair, but then so was most of the field. Didnít have a huge amount of support in that race. Sat up handy there and fought on well, but they were going past him the last 50M. May need this run as well. Place only. 4th W=$14.20

Sacking:
2-DANDINO is an import having an Australian preparation, and he ran pretty well at $100 in the bunched finished of the Makybe Diva, when he didnít have a great deal of running room. Only had the 6 starts in 2 years since his good spring preparation in 2013 when he ran 2nd in a Caulfield Cup behind the (1). Extra distance should suit, as should the more genuine tempo here. Still prefer to wait till he gets into a finish before getting on though. No

3-SERTORIUS is a pretty decent handicapper stayer who can been thereabouts in these WFA lead ins. Normally he can race pretty well fresh, but he was probably a little disappointing 1st up in the Memsie when he didnít finish his race off, even though he was still only beaten < 3L. Had a 4 week freshen since then too which suggests there have probably been some issues. Placed 5 from 8 at Caulfield and would be a place chance here on his best form, but have to pass on today as not quite clear how he is going at the moment. No

10-VOLKSTOK'N'BARRELL is the arch rival of the (9), though that one seems to have his measure on most occasions. Fitter for the 2 runs in, was just fair in the Memsie, and then was about the only one to drop out in the Makybe Diva when raced handy on the turn, but was the first horse beaten. Though the jockey reported he got tightened for room and had nowhere to go and his horse still had more to give. Guess he probably knows better. Nice barrier and will sit handy, but has been covered against this lot the last few races and canít see him improving to be a factor in this today. No

11-MAGICOOL is a horribly frustrating horse who has ability but stuffed if we can work out which days he is going to show it. Mixes his form badly. Which just isnít cool. Seemed to thrive on hard racing last time in and didnít find his best form till the end of the preparation. Fitter for the 2 runs in, in the normal lead up races, but nothing to recommend him here. No

12-HI WORLD is an on pacer miler who has a fair bit of ability, but thought they would have gone to the Rupert Clarke Ė not quite sure where he is heading this spring? Not far off them 1st up here in the Memsie when raced handy and fought on well, and then got quite worked up in the mounting yard before the Makybe Diva, led and fought on just OK. Does seem to prefer wet ground and yet to be tried past a mile. Normally goes forward, but doubt he will take the (4) on here. A wet track mile handicap Ė sure, get on, a WFA 1800M race just doesnít seem to be the go. No

Summary: Looks a pretty straight forward WFA race here with not that many winning chances, and unlikely that one outside the main picks will win. Often you can get good backable odds about the WFA horse that keeps on winning through the spring and really most of these have raced against each other so you should be able to bet with confidence.

The 4-THE CLEANER goes to the lead as always, be interesting to see what they do with the 12-HI WORLD who normally leads, but suspect out to 1800M for the first time they might ride him a bit quieter here. Behind them the 1-FAWKNER, 5-MOURINHO, 10-VOLKSTOK'N'BARRELL
sitting handy.

Really the class horse the 1-FAWKNER should go on his winning way here, just be a little wary of the inside barrier if he drops back midfield on the rails. 4-THE CLEANER the main danger and if the track is favouring on pacers probably challenges for top pick in this. Value runner here is the 5-MOURINHO who is better suited from this barrier and suspect will get forgotten in the betting and has a good record here at Caulfield. Bet with confidence around these three once we get a feel for the racing pattern today.

One to risk: 8-DIBAYANI 9th W=$13.50
Roughie: 7-WEARY

The Key: Same horse beats the bunched finish Ė who is the new form line?

RESULTS: Spot on in the tips here, tipping the trifecta and our old favourite 5-MOURINHO 1st W=$19.60 gets up at long odds - yet again! Still so under rated, but key to him is being drawn so he can race outside horses as he makes long grinding runs. Still think the 1-FAWKNER will beat all these home next time they meet with improvement. The 9-MONGOLIAN KHAN coming along nicely for the Cups.


RACE 8: SIR RUPERT CLARKE STAKES GROUP 1 1400M
Tips:
8-UNDER THE LOUVRE 3rd W=$5.30
9-AMICUS
12-DISPOSITION 2nd W=$3.70

Others: 13, 20, 11, 2

Pace: FAST
Leaders: 5-STRAWBERRY BOY (wide), 7-RICH ENUFF (wide), 10-CHARMED HARMONY
Handy: 2-COSMIC ENDEAVOUR , 4-LEEBAZ (wide), 9-AMICUS , 11-STRATUM STAR, 12-DISPOSITION, 15-GREGERS , 20-MOONOVERMANHATTAN (emerg)
Back: 1-LUCKY HUSSLER, 3-AMORINO, 8-UNDER THE LOUVRE , 13-FAST 'N' ROCKING, 14-HOPFGARTEN, 16-ABIDEWITHME , 17-BULL POINT, 18-WE'RE GONNA ROCK, 19-PETROLOGY (emerg), 21-YESTERDAY'S SONGS (emerg), 22-WORTHY CAUSE (emerg)

Chances:
2-COSMIC ENDEAVOUR is a smart Sydney miler with an excellent win strike rate. Best form is over the 1400M though. Fitter for the 2 runs in and should be at peak for this race, and loomed like the winner last start in a very tight blanket finish, when wasnít beaten that far at all. Good middle barrier will allow a clean run into the race off a fast speed. Like the way she loomed up last start, think that says she is ready to win. Only concern again may be the weight of 56.5kgs, even with the limit rising over the years those towards the top of the weights do seem to struggle to win this race. Chance.

8-UNDER THE LOUVRE is one of our favourite horses and he has an absolutely sensational finishing burst. Seems to have been set for this race and is coming into this with perfect form. Fitter for the 2 runs in and ran a close 2nd after a fast finishing burst in the Bobbie Lewis. 1st up here was slightly disappointing, but he jumped OK and the jockey let him slide further and further back for no good reason. Run down the straight at Flemington was excellent as he came from last and was mowing them down at a great rate to only just be beaten. Dry track suits. Placed 5 from 6 here at Caulfield. Fast speed here will suit too. Just needs to get a clear run at them, as he has the class to win this. Excellent run here in the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate back in Feb. He has been beaten last two tries at the Caulfield 1400M, so suspect it is as far as he wants, and maybe not quite as effective over this distance. But fit, in form, has the class and drawn well definitely looks the one to beat in this. Go well. 3rd W=$5.30

9-AMICUS won the Thousand Guineas here last spring as a 3YO, and then was only fair in the Sydney autumn, but suspect that the soft tracks didnít suit. She has come back in scintillating form, winning two from two. Has placed all 3 starts this track. Really liked the last start win at Flemington, as it was a total blanket finish and they were all going hammer and tong, but she swooped over them late to win clearly. Think that was a class win. Note she meets the (2) 1kgs better for beating her home in that race. Dry track suits. Drawn out and they might just ride her a bit quieter today from an outside barrier. Having winning form going into these feature Group 1ís is really important. Not too fussed about the wide barrier as think she drops back a bit, but at least gets a clear crack at them in the straight. She is winning and may be on the up. Strong chance.

11-STRATUM STAR is a super consistent type, though he is starting to get a bit of a reputation for being a non winner. He keeps getting the perfect sit in his races, looming up like the winner Ė and not winning. Which is what he did in the Memsie here, he definitely looked the winner when he pulled out for his run. Was very consistent through his 3YO Autumn campaign, but found one better every start after having every chance. Fitter for the 2 runs in, and 1st up run was much better than it looked after he was dropped back to last and given no hope, and really only beaten a fraction in the Group 1 Memsie. Fit, in form Group 1 place getter going into another Group 1 race is a good sign. Has drawn out here, and his normal pattern is to race forward, so listen for riding instructions and he may get caught wide. He is much better suited back to a handicap here. Should be in the finish again. Chance. 1st W=$9.60

12-DISPOSITION is a highly rated WA horse now trained in Victoria. Put in an excellent 1st up run in the Autumn, before being beaten here this track and distance when a short priced favourite. Very well supported 1st up and looked the winner a long way out, looming up to the field under a hold. That was an impressive win. Only missed the place once in 9 career starts. Looks well suited under these weight conditions. Nice inside barrier and should sit just behind the three on pacers here. 2nd up, but stays at the 1400M, but note that most winners of this race have had 2-3 runs in. Definitely looks the one to beat, just maybe want to look for something at a bit more value in a big field but canít really knock his form at all. Strong chance. 2nd W=$3.70

13-FAST 'N' ROCKING is a smart sprinter on his day, and that day normally means he needs a dry track and a fast speed and a track where they are running on well. Unfortunately those days donít come around very often. Fitter for the 2 runs in and his last start run at MV was actually pretty good, he went out about 10 wide on the home turn, and was still making really good ground late under a big weight. Gets a nice weight drop into this. Drawn well and the speed on here is going to suit Ė likely to drop well back in the field though so might need some luck weaving through for a run. Actually donít think he is hopeless in this. Ran a good placing here in the Group 1 Oakleigh in the Autumn. The main issue here is the 1400M and his form over this distance isnít the best. But dry track, fast speed will suit, and ridden quietly back in the field think he is a real chance here. Best Rough chance.

20-MOONOVERMANHATTAN (emerg) is a classic staying 3YO who looks like he is about to run into form this spring. Took a bit of time and distance to find his form last spring, and didnít get into the finish in his Autumn campaign. Fitter for the 2 runs back and looks well suited going into this 3rd up at the 1400M. Big plus with this one is that he can race handy, and has a good barrier so will get a perfect sit here. Poked up on the rails here last week and hit the lead early in the straight to be not beaten that far at all. Think he has a fair bit of upside, so could easily pinch a race like this. Seems to be a bit more effective over the shorter trips this time in too. Main challenge is going to be getting into the field as the 2nd emergency, but if he does put him in as a chance. Rough. SCR

Place:
1-LUCKY HUSSLER is a super honest performer who is probably still under rated and had a breakout spring last year for a new stable, where he went from strength to strength to only just be beaten in the Emirates, over the 1600M which is a distance he only just gets. Impressive 1st up win in a Group 1 sprint over 1200M at MV in summer stamped him as a top liner Ė and the effort that night was super impressive, he had drawn an inside barrier but when he let loose he stormed past them. Can forgive the Sydney soft track run and then fair in the Goodwood. Promising run 1st when he loomed up on the rails down the straight and the Bobbie Lewis is normally the best form guide for this race. 2nd up and up 200M, firm track suits, and he has a strong finishing burst so will be suited by the speed here. There has been not much between him and the (8) a few times, but the issue is now he was won that Group 1 he has to carry more weight. Top weights in this race donít have the best record, as often there are a lot of fit, in form up and comers at the bottom of the field. Inside barrier 2 might be an issue too as he is likely to be out the back of the field here. He has the class and the finishing burst to win this, and should be around the finish, but just suspect the weight might restrict him to a placing. Place.

5-STRAWBERRY BOY has managed to win 9 from 25, but all we can remember is a few times when he has started short priced favourite in Melbourne, led in the straight and been beaten. Failed in this race in 2013, when was well supported and was racing in peak form. He picked up a few good wins over the QLD winter carrying big weights and might appreciate a bit of a weight drop in this. 2nd up and 1st up effort in Sydney was solid. Drawn a wide barrier here and plenty of speed means he may have to work to go forward. Really, despite a few flops at short odds his form is pretty consistent and he is just about always in the finish. Probably looks over the odds to us for one that has placed 17 from 25 career starts. If they can get him rolling OK from the barrier think he is going to stick on pretty well here, may find one better, but think will run in the first few so put him in your trifectas and first fours. Place. 4th W=$23.30

7-RICH ENUFF is a former boom 3YO returning from a long injury lay off and his two runs since he has been back have probably been a bit under whelming. Led, but was easily over taken 1st up here and then in the Bobbie Lewis he was probably the first horse beaten Ė but once beaten he actually fought it out really well and wasnít beaten that far on the line. Get the impression they have been easing him back into racing, so he has plenty of improvement to come and do like the way he stuck on last start. Was actually all ready to give him a bit of a push today Ė until that barrier came out Ė 22 Ė urgh. That make things tough. Quite a few leaders here and his best form is running along in the lead so he is likely to get caught wide in this. Suspect he will put in a bit of a run though and may look the winner half way down the straight but prefer place chance today. Expect a much better run though. Place.

10-CHARMED HARMONY has been flying, winning his last 4 starts in a row, and doing it easily too, running along in the lead. Super impressive win strike rate. Has only been racing in open handicaps and never started in a Group or Listed race, but getting thrown in the deep end today into a feature Group 1. Won 7 from 11 over the 1400M and that probably as far as he wants, he is a bit more vulnerable past this distance. He is probably better with just a bit of give in the ground, but really there isnít much difference between his good track and wet track form. Not convinced of the quality of what he has been beating, and he does normally get his own way in the lead without much pressure. Drawn well in barrier 9 to take the rails and lead here, and good chance this track will favour those racing on speed. Most of the other speed is drawn out, and those ones will have to work to get across, but he will get a lot more pressure up front here than in previous runs. Was entered for the Memsie a few weeks back but was an emergency and didnít get into the field. Main concern is that he has been up since April and surely there canít be that much more improvement left to come Ė and he would probably still have to improve to win this. Most of these are fresher, and set for this race, whereas this race is coming at the end of a preparation for him. Still he is a winner and he has been winning clearly so you canít knock winning form going into a Group 1 race. Prefer place.

19-PETROLOGY is one the stable have always had an high opinion of, but has yet to put it all together on the track. Looked like he was going places with an impressive end to last spring, but didnít really do much in the feature races over Autumn. Looked set for a good spring with a solid 1st up finishing on run in the Bletchingly, but again he hasnít gone on from there. Probably not suited by the slow speed last start and didnít finish too far away in a bunched finish Ė though he presented on the home turn and was going backwards towards the line. Much better suited here with only 52kgs in a handicap, Drawn OK, to drop back and the speed on here is going to suit. Not sure we can write him off here, despite his form not looking the best - note that he took a few runs to find his best form last spring, and just looks so much better suited at the bottom of weights in an handicap. Rough place chance.

Sacking:
3-AMORINO is one we struggle to catch and he does seem to fly under the radar a bit and keep winning at double figure odds. Last 3 wins have all been over the 1400M trip. Firm track suits. Solid return down the straight 1st up when not far away from many of these Ė but probably prefer to be on those who finished in front of him. 2nd up and up 200M and horses donít often win this race 2nd up. He seems to struggle in races at the Group level. Inside barrier might be an issue here as can see him trapped back on the rails in a big field with the speed on. He is consistently around the money though and will start at good odds and his 1st up run was solid. Just concern is against this Group 1 class so prefer to risk. No.

4-LEEBAZ is a smart Sydney miler who had no luck in a race here last spring before running a solid 4th in the Emirates. Picked up a good race on the Gold Coast over the winter and maintains an excellent win strike rate. Normally races handy and led and was very disappointing 1st up the other week at Flemington Ė and worth noting he didnít have that much support in the market that day either. Did have to lump 60kgs that day so might appreciate the drop in weight in this. Drawn an wide barrier and does like to go forward and there does seem to be a fair bit of speed here, so suspect he is going to be caught wide. On his best form he could be a factor here, but hard to have him off the 1st up run and prefer to wait till we see some form. No

6-NINTH LEGION SCRATCHED

14-HOPFGARTEN is a QLD visitor with a good win strike rate, but is coming into this race 1st up and winning a Group 1 feature 1400M race 1st up is a very tough ask. Best form is over further, but has won his last 2 1st up runs over this distance so worth a crack at this race. Stable tend to know what they are doing when they bring a horse down for these races. Likely to drop back here from an wide barrier. Just too tough an ask though 1st up. Passing.

15-GREGERS is a speed mare who looks better suited when down in the weights in these sort of races. Three times winner at the track is an impressive stat. 3rd up and forget the 1st up run at MV when was caught wide with a big weight on a dynamite leaders track when short priced favourite. Really solid effort down the straight last start when led most of the way and only just headed in the last 50M or so Ė and that race is normally the best form line for this one. Likely to go forward here, but there is just so much pressure up front in this race and donít think she is going to get a very easy run on the speed. The 1400M here is as far as she wants. Not sure about her, no weight, in form and racing on speed puts her in the finish, and she has the right form lines, but just suspect the 1400M in a pressure race may bring her undone here. Risking.

16-ABIDEWITHME is a NZ transfer having her first preparation for a local stable and impressed first up when she came from well back to win. 2nd up ,but staying at the 1400M. Won 4 from 7 this distance, but does look like she will want further. Blinkers on first time. Fast speed on here should assist, but drawn a horror barrier 20. No weight and last start winner means she is worthy of respect, but think she will struggle giving some class ones a head start in this. No

17-BULL POINT has a bit of ability when right ,but hasnít shown his best form for a while. Fitter for the 2 runs back for a new stable, but hasnít shown anything at all this time in. Ran 3rd in this race last year, but that was coming off a last start placing. Hasnít won for about 18 months now and win strike rate is starting to look a bit ordinary. Best form does appear to be on wet tracks. Nice barrier. No

18-WE'RE GONNA ROCK is a former top liner who even when he was at this peak struggled at the 1400M. Ran 2nd in this race in 2012, but that was coming off a win in the Bobbie Lewis at Flemington. Placed in a Toorak here too, but yet to win past 1200M and 1400M stats donít look the best. Firm track suits. Likely to drop back here from bad barrier. Has struggled to beat a runner home since changing stables, 2nd up and up 200M and canít have in this race where you need to be fit and in form for a class Group 1. No

21-YESTERDAY'S SONGS (emerg) is a very smart sprinter who has a sensational finishing burst, but does has a history of striking trouble a few times if he gets caught up behind runners. This race is well known for horses getting blocked for runs too and he has drawn inside today. Should have won 1st up here when he was trapped inside another runner for the length of the straight, and got knocked sideways just as he was unleashing a finishing burst about 50M from home. Given 4 weeks between runs and stepped up in distance and failed to do anything at Flemington when he was very disappointing. (the fact that we made him the Best Bet of the Day had no impact, what so ever). Good win strike rate and the 1400M suits Ė donít think he wants it much further than this. Guess you can always forgive them one bad run and he does have the ability to win this. Quite a few gear changes. Unlikely to make the field anyway, and just a bit cautious if there isnít a clear reason for the poor last run. Prefer to risk.

22-WORTHY CAUSE (emerg) is the token fourth emergency which basically means he has no chance of getting a run, but gets a nice certificate to take home to mum for his efforts. Lightly raced Brisbane galloper with a good win strike rate, who had a classic staying preparation over the QLD winter which was not too bad. Won 1st up as a short priced favourite Wasnít disgraced down the straight last start against many of these when he loomed about 200M from home and stuck it out OK. That race is normally the best guide to this race too. Drawn a shocking barrier here is probably the end of his hopes though, and would have to drop back and hope for luck. Seems to be going along OK, so watch out for him in whatever race he pops up in next Ė that Flemington run wasnít too bad. Later on.

Summary: This always looks a super tough race on paper, but if you sit down carefully and sort through the form think you can narrow the winning chances right down. In a tough feature Group1 you normally need to be right in peak form to win, and looking back out of the last 20 winners of this race, 9 were last start winners and 15 finished in the first three in their lead up run. 7 winners in that time have come through the Bobbie Lewis as their lead up run. Only 3 winners have carried 56kgs or more in the last 20 years, bearing in mind weights have been gradually going up over that time. Also note that horses donít win this race 1st up, and most winners have had 2-3 runs in. So you want a fit, in form horse that has run in the first 3 at its last run, and preferably down in the weights.

Speed here looks quite fast, especially with several having to cross from outside barriers. 10-CHARMED HARMONY should cross and lead here, but 5-STRAWBERRY BOY (wide), 7-RICH ENUFF (wide) will be working across from outside barriers. 11-STRATUM STAR, 12-DISPOSITION, 15-GREGERS , 20-MOONOVERMANHATTAN (emerg) should be in the pack just behind these and we should get quite a genuine tempo with lots of pressure up front.

Putting the 8-UNDER THE LOUVRE on top here, ready to peak with the 2 runs in, last run down the straight in the Bobbie Lewis was excellent and will be suited by the fast speed, so ticks a lot of those form boxes. Nice barrier and given a clear run should come out and unleash his powerful finish, maybe just the 1400M the only query. The 9-AMICUS the clear danger, in winning form and really like the way she went past the finishing bunch last start to win, and the 12-DISPOSITION the obvious pick, in winning form and sitting on the speed, but is 2nd up and not sure he represents value in this race. Plenty of value around and watch for two great value roughies here the 13-FAST 'N' ROCKING, 20-MOONOVERMANHATTAN (emerg). In a wide race normally a good bet is for a wide trifecta so will taking bets around these runners with the top two picks to win.

One to risk: -
Roughie: 13-FAST 'N' ROCKING, 20-MOONOVERMANHATTAN (emerg)

The Key: Fit, in form for a feature Group 1

RESULTS: Yet another close finish in a feature race this spring and really nothing between the first three home here. 8-UNDER THE LOUVRE looms like the winner, suspect he is just a slight query at the 1400M. 1-LUCKY HUSSLER the one to follow going forward, fitter for the 2 runs in and ran out of room towards the line.
 
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