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Turf Deli Free Form Guides and Tips - Makybe Diva Stakes 2015

FLEMINGTON: MAKYBE DIVA STAKES - 12th Sept 2015
Track: GOOD (4) - Weather: FINE - Rail: TRUE
Betting Portfolio ($50):
The sun has finally come out in Melbourne this spring and the weather is looking most pleasant indeed for Saturday. No sign of rain and this track should probably get to a firm GOOD (3) with a bit of drying wind around. Last meeting here the rail was out 8M so there should be lots of fresh ground to race on back along the inside. Just be aware a few times with this meeting the racing pattern has favoured those running on late if there is a bit of wind around, and there should be genuine speed in these races with big fields. So every horse should have its chance, but just keep an eye out if they are mainly winning running on late.

Found this meeting a bit tricky from a betting point of view, there were a few races where we were tossing and turning about which way to go. Most of these races have a bit of depth to them, but 2-3 clear winning chances – you just have to work out how to split them. We have managed to find plenty of $10 chances on top though so a each way bet on the top pick should see you nicely through the punting day. Having quite a few smaller bets today with some interest in most races.

RESULTS: Even racing, but they did some work on the track out wider so in all the races the jockeys stick very close to the rails. This leads to quite a few very bunched finishes and the racing does tend to favour those racing on speed. Not much makes ground from well back in the field.

BEST BET: Race 5: 9-YESTERDAY’S SONGS $7 WIN X
Lightly raced one with a good win strike rate who should have won at Caulfield when he was kept boxed in by one on his outside most of the way down the straight and got a knock inwards at a crucial point about 50M to go when was about to unleash. 2nd up, up 200M and hasn’t raced for few weeks is a little concern and he will sit back off them a bit here in a race with not a huge amount of speed. Has a great finishing burst though. There doesn’t look to be many winning chances in this at all, and given clear running he should just about win this. Back straight out at around $4.
RESULTS: Over races during the run and pulls out in the straight - but does nothing. Very disappointing.

BEST WIN: Race 4: 2-READY FOR VICTORY $5 WIN 3rd W=$2.90
Smart youngster who ran really well in his first preparation, and you just get the impression the major races came around a bit too soon as he was still working it all out. Solid win here at 1st start, and then excellent effort in the Golden Slipper when was on the wrong leg down the straight. 1st up was held up for runs early in the straight and finished on well to only just get beaten. This race seems to have come up a bit weak this year, normally there are a few class horses from interstate who come down, so think he has a class edge on these. Proven down the straight and should be too good for these at around $3.60.
RESULTS: Opens up at silly odds. Gets caught on the rails and blocked for runs a few times and still making ground on the line. Worth following but no value at the moment.

BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 11-CHURCHILL DANCER $5 EW 1st W=$8.50, P=$2.50 = $55
Just keeps performing well and continually under rated. Absolutely thrashed them last start at MV and should even have further improvement to come as that was only 2nd run back from a spell. Flemington straight form is fantastic and has won 3 from 5 this track and distance, and placed 6 from 10 here. Keeps bobbing up at good odds in these straight races, but seems to have come back even better this time in. Should be able to sit just behind the speed here, and comes in at the bottom of the weight scale here so looks a good each way bet at around $7.50
RESULTS: Sits right on the speed and he always looks the winner, but only just sticks his head out on the line and only just holds off a fast finisher. Phew! Great straight track horse in form though.

BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 2-HAPPY TRAILS $4 EW 5th W=$11.00
Really consistent type when he strikes form, which is normally after 2-3 runs in each campaign, so think today might be the day. Won the Mackinnon, Turnbull and Emirates here, all tough feature races. Had no luck last start when he looked to have plenty to give in the Memsie and didn’t get clear running for most of the straight. Might need some luck from the inside barrier, but happy to back each way at around $11.
RESULTS: Tight, bunched finish and he is fighting away in the thick of things, beaten < 1 length. Maybe he ust needed that run still and likely to be a factor in the spring majors.

BEST PLACE: Race 9: 2-EXTRA ZERO $2 WIN, $5 PLACE 4th W=$16.60
We are actually pretty keen on this one as top pick in the last race, but he is a bit a non winner. Has only won once in the last 3 years - so let’s have more the place. Fitter for the 2 runs in, ran on well to run 2nd 1st up (and he is pretty good at running 2nd), and then soft track didn’t suit at all at Caulfield when was still fair. Doesn’t handle it wet at all. Still can’t believe he didn’t get the photo in the Australian Cup here in March. Most of these are going nowhere fast, he will be fitter for the 2 runs in, back to a dry track, placed 14 from 29 here and placed 13 of this last 16 runs since this time last year. 60kgs is the question mark, but got lots of queries over his opposition here. Come home on him as a value place bet in your all ups. Looks a solid place bet at around $4.50, and happy to back him each way if you are looking to get out in the last race.
RESULTS: Honest effort again, making ground on the line and maybe he just wants it a bit further. Think he is just struggling under the big weights at the moment, but just watch out when he gets into a race with some weight relief.

BEST ROUGH: Race 3: 8-LIZARD ISLAND $2 EW 2nd W=$11.30, P=$3.40 = $6.80
This is one of the more open races of the day and likely to be a value winner. This one has been coming along well, fitter for the 2 runs in and was working to the line nicely last start. Step up to the 1400M here should suit, and drawn out is OK for one that will probably drop back and run on. Currently around $11, which doesn’t quite make him a “roughie” as such, but suspect will drift out to better odds on the tote before they jump.
RESULTS: Perfect on pace sit and fights the finish right out to only narrowly go down.

QUINELLA: Race 2: 7-KAREEMING - 6-AT FIRST SIGHT x $2 X
QUINELLA: Race 2: 7-KAREEMING - 9-ALBONETTI x $1 X / 1st 9-ALBONETTI W=$7.80
QUINELLA: Race 2: 7-KAREEMING - 1-CRAFTY CRUISER x $1 X / 3rd 1-CRAFTY CRUISER W=$9.40
The staying race is incredibly even and there is very little between most of these. However, the one most likely to be in the finish is the (7), who is tough and will race on speed so take him in quinellas with the (6), who we think might finally win at race in Australia back at Flemington, the always running on (9) and the (1) who often wins at long odds here.
RESULTS: Drops back a bit further than expected and finds several better in the run home.

LAY OF THE DAY: Race 8: 6-NOBLE PROTECTOR at around $3.50 13th W=$2.90
Class import who has been running really well in Australia at only 2 preparations and has won easily in this sort of grade before. Slightly nervous about taking her on, but 1st up here, over 1400M (and has never raced below 1600M), and drawn barrier 1. Awful lot of speed in this race and quite a few who can sit handy so suspect she might end up back in the field here from an inside barrier over the shorter trip. On her best form and with a clear run she probably wins, but there are lots of winning chances here and just prefer to back something at a bit more value. Wary about taking on class horses though as the Lay of the Day. Most unconvincing argument ever.
RESULTS: Probably the most unconvincing argument ever - but she does get stuck on the rails behind several runners and is very disappointing.

TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet.
EARLY QUAD: Races 2,3,4,5 : 1,6,7,9 / 5,8,13,19 / 2,5 / 4,9 x $5 = 7.81%
1st 9-9-ALBONETTI W=$7.80 / 2nd 8-LIZARD ISLAND W=$11.30 / 3rd 2-READY FOR VICTORY W=$2.90 / X
After going so close last week to a substantial 5 figure collect in the tips with the early quad, we have to give it a try this week. The Early Quad seems to blow out quite easily if there is a result away from the norm. First leg let’s go wide and try to make sure to get on the board at least. The 2nd leg is where the value will come, so take the best roughie 8-LIZARD ISLAND with the other selections (with plenty of value), 5,19,13. If the (19) who is an emergency does not make the field, swap in the (11). Our best bets are in the next legs, but we have already backed them to win, so put an extra runner in each leg as that is where the value will come if they get rolled. Add the (5) into the 3rd leg who was good leading and winning last start (and RICH ENUFF did the same last year), and the (9) in the last leg who can be hard to run down leading.
RESULTS: Starts off well, but gets progressively worse..

SPENT:$ 50
RETURN: $61.80
NET: $+11.80


The Tips:

Race 1: 4-MY POPPETTE, 2-PETITS FILOUS, 12-PARCEL
Race 2: 6-AT FIRST SIGHT, 7-KAREEMING, 9-ALBONETTI
Race 3: 8-LIZARD ISLAND, 5-EL GRECO, 19-ASSERTIVE STAR (emerg), 13-RED ALTO
Race 4: 2-READY FOR VICTORY, 5-WELL SPRUNG, 12-REEMAH
Race 5: 9-YESTERDAY’S SONGS, 4-JACQUINOT BAY, 11-ZEBRINZ
Race 6: 11-CHURCHILL DANCER, 4-RICH ENUFF, 5-UNDER THE LOURVE
Race 7: 2-HAPPY TRAILS, 14-ALPINE EAGLE, 3-BOBAN
Race 8: 9-PLATINUM ROCKER, 15-VEZALAY, 2-MAY’S DREAM
Race 9: 2-EXTRA ZERO, 5-SET SQUARE, 20-ABBASSO (emerg), 14-DON DOREMO


RACE 1: RESULTS
Tips:
4-MY POPPETTE
2-PETITS FILOUS 1st W=$1.90
12-PARCEL

RACE 2: RESULTS
Tips:
6-AT FIRST SIGHT
7-KAREEMING
9-ALBONETTI 1st W=$7.80

RACE 3: RESULTS
Tips:
8-LIZARD ISLAND 2nd W=$11.30
5-EL GRECO 3rd W=$7.10
13-RED ALTO

RACE 4: RESULTS
Tips:
2-READY FOR VICTORY 3rd W=$2.90
5-WELL SPRUNG
12-REEMAH

RACE 5: RESULTS
Tips:
9-YESTERDAY’S SONGS
4-JACQUINOT BAY
11-ZEBRINZ

RACE 6: RESULTS
Tips:
11-CHURCHILL DANCER 1st W=$8.50 *** Best Each Way Bet ***
4-RICH ENUFF
5-UNDER THE LOURVE 2nd W=$9.10

Quinella: $36.20

RACE 7: RESULTS
Tips:
2-HAPPY TRAILS
14-ALPINE EAGLE
3-BOBAN

RACE 8: RESULTS
Tips:
9-PLATINUM ROCKER
15-VEZALAY
2-MAY’S DREAM 3rd W=$10.80

RACE 9: RESULTS
Tips:
2-EXTRA ZERO
5-SET SQUARE
20-ABBASSO



RACE 7: MAKYBE DIVA STAKES 1600M GROUP 1 WFA

Tips:
2-HAPPY TRAILS
14-ALPINE EAGLE
3-BOBAN

Others: 15,10,1

Pace: GENUINE
Leaders: 9-ENTIRELY PLATINUM
Handy: 3-BOBAN, 6-WEARY (wide), 10-MONGOLIAN KHAN, 11-VOLKSTOK'N'BARRELL (wide), 13-HI WORLD (wide), 15-RISING ROMANCE
Back: 1-FAWKNER, 2-HAPPY TRAILS, 4-DANDINO, 5-SMOKIN' JOEY, 7-PRINCE OF PENZANCE, 8-OUR IVANHOWE, 12-MAGICOOL, 14-ALPINE EAGLE, 16-GUST OF WIND, 17-AWESOME ROCK (emerg)

Chances:
2-HAPPY TRAILS is a genuine consistent WFA performer and the beauty of him is that he is like clockwork – runs pretty much the same campaign every year so you know when he is ready to win. And today is that day. Normally takes 2-3 runs to find best every preparation. 1st up this year he ran on OK in Adelaide, and then go and double check his run in the Memsie which we thought was excellent – even though he finished 12th he wasn’t beaten that far at all and struggled to get a clear run at them for most of the straight. Went to the line under a hold. Slightly wary of the inside barrier here, he was badly held up for runs here in the Turnbull last year in a similar big field. Would be good to see him ridden a bit closer to the speed just in case. Fitter for the 2 runs in, out to the 1600M suits, firm track is a big, big plus – think he is right in this. He has won an Emirates, Turnbull and McKinnon here, so let’s add the Makybe Diva to the list today. Strong chance.

3-BOBAN is one of the best milers in the country and stung us last start at Caulfield when we were keen to take him on. Guess that means he is back to his best – and he is very hard to beat when he is. Superior miler who didn’t come up this time last year, and then disappointed for form earlier this year in Sydney – but they seem to have sorted him all out now – and you can hardly knock his last 3 starts, 1-2-1 form line, all in Group 1s. There are 10 horses from the Memsie going around here, and he beat them all home last time so that automatically puts him in the finish in this. Has drawn inside again today, and liked last start how the jockey had him up and running mid field and they will probably do the same thing again today. Seems to have a knack for taking inside rails runs – main danger would be if he dropped too far back here along the inside in a big field and got blocked for runs. Strong chance. 4th W=$4.50

10-MONGOLIAN KHAN was given one bloody scary and imposing name at birth, so his parents were rather disappointed when the ballet career never eventuated. Classic winning 3YO and always a competition every spring to see which of these rise to the occasion the next year in the big league. Has beaten home the (11) in 3 of their last 4 meetings – but we can also use that to line him up in this – and the (11) was even without being overly impressive in the Memsie 1st up. Drawn an nice middle barrier and NZ jockey has come across to ride him. Has won 7 from 9 and every chance he will go on this spring. Most importantly he has drawn a middle barrier – and can race handy – so give himself every chance. Watch the market to see how forward he is 1st up, but he does also represent a new form line to the grouped finish in the Memsie Stakes, which is important. Not many horses win this race 1st up. Probably want to keep him safe in this. Chance.

14-ALPINE EAGLE is one that should step up this spring, and we are lacking a really exciting new prospect in racing at the moment – and he looks most likely to get the job. Yet to be unplaced in 7 starts. Still does plenty wrong in his races and his win at Caulfield last February when he was going nowhere back in the field and then suddenly unleashed some sort of rocket booster finish was extraordinary. Just failed here this track and distance in the Australian Guineas. Been sparingly raced and given plenty of time and has big expectations this spring. Beaten 1st up at $1.70, but probably not that unexpected, on a wet track and over 1400M. Big Flemington spaces suit, a steady speed suits and drawn in space to unleash and run on late. Sure to be well supported and would be good to see him add a bit a buzz to the spring. Strong chance.

15-RISING ROMANCE is a very consistent NZ stayer who has transferred to the Hayes stable. Has been consistent in a few campaigns over here now. Looked the winner in the Caulfield Cup last year when the jockey cut the corner and went for home. Consistent again through her Autumn campaign when only just failed on a wet track with a big weight. Even enough effort 1st up against so many of these in the Memsie – but all of them will improve on that run. Dropped back last start at Caulfield but she often races handy or forward and having drawn barrier 1 suspect they will go forward here. She is going to get a very cosy run just behind the speed here with plenty working to come across from outside barriers, and plenty dropping well back, so don’t be surprised if she scoots into the finish early in the straight and looks the winner. Rough chance. 2nd W=$15.20


Place:
1-FAWKNER is one of the best horses in the country, but unfortunately we only see him sparingly. 5 times winner this track, 4 times winner and placed 7 from 8 this distance – you can’t get much better than that. Strung together a streak of dry track Flemington wins in Spring 2012, before stepping up to bigger and better things, including the Caulfield Cup. Was entered to run in the Memsie (as were most of this field), but scratched when drew an outside barrier. Excellent 2nd in last year’s Cox Plate when was left sitting for a group of them running on late. 1st up in this race last year was only narrowly defeated – but the race this year is probably a bit stronger. Has had close to a full year off too which means he may need a run or two to get back to best. Drawn out here suits, and will probably drop back and run on. Has the class to win this definitely. Should be around the finish, but just preferring place. Place. 1st W=$5.00

6-WEARY is an import who has had a few good campaigns Down Under. Form this time in has been excellent, and fitter for the 2 runs in. Not far behind these at all last start when he just missed the start slightly from a wide barrier which meant he had to be ridden back, instead of going forward as intended. Made really good ground in the straight in the Memsie. Drawn wide here, but assume they will try and go forward again? Few slight concerns in the form – best form does appear to be on wet ground and think this track will be firming up, and has yet to win past 1500M (despite placing over further). The speed should be even here, but not overly fast, so he should be able to go forward and sit just off them. On form looks a winning chance, just pushing down towards place with a wide barrier and firm track. Place.

9-ENTIRELY PLATINUM has never quite lived up to his early potential and has made a bit of a habit of going forward and kicking on well in these early races – but then failing when he steps up in distance. Suspect that 1600M is about as far as he wants – despite some good runs over further. Excellent run 1st up in the Memsie when led and was only just grabbed on the line to be beaten by a short head only. He has ability – just he often seems to find one better. Best form does seem to be fresh. Drawn an outside barrier here which does mean he will need to work to go forward –but there doesn’t seem to be a huge amount of speed in this. Just suspect he will find one better again though – so prefer place. Place. 3rd W=$15.50

11-VOLKSTOK'N'BARRELL is another classic wining 3YO trying out the 4YO scene. Very consistent type who is normally in the finish, and has only missed the place once in 11 starts now. Normally finds his NZ arch rival the (10) has his measure though. Made good ground late in the Memsie, but so did many of these. 2nd up and up in distance and you would think would race more forward here – but has drawn an outside barrier, so just listen out for riding tactics. Just not sure the Memsie run was good enough to consider again in this. Prefer place.


Sacking:
4-DANDINO is an overseas stayer having an Australian preparation. Solid runs in the Melbourne and Caulfield Cups in 2013. Had almost a full year off before 1st up run in the Memsie – and there was next to no support for him and he finished last. Hard to see him (well, impossible to see him) improving enough in two weeks to beat home the ten or so horses going around here that beat him home last start. Looks to be just having a few warm up runs for longer distances, so wait till he strikes some form. No.

5-SMOKIN' JOEY is pretty tricky to catch and has a nasty habit of popping up at long odds. When in form though he has ran some excellent races, and his run in the Emirates here 2 years ago when he finished 2nd after going wide and early was one of those. Looked to have come back for a good spring with fresh win in the Bletchingly, then ran below par when found to have a bleed in the Lawrence, and was a late scratching in the Memsie after kicking the gate. Which just means his spring campaign has been thrown around all over the place. Has only won 1 from 12 over the 1600M, but not too far off a few times. The firm track here today is a big plus, and being drawn middle suits him as he likes to go for home early and wide. He might show up early in the straight, but just think will find others better today. No

7-PRINCE OF PENZANCE is an handicapper stayer with a solid win/place strike rate. Dry track here suits, and wasn’t that far away in a very bunched field in the Memsie against most of these. Solid Flemington record. Took a few runs in to find best form last spring, and has only had the 1 run back from a full year spell. Likely to drop well back in this. Hard to see him beating these at WFA. Later.

8-OUR IVANHOWE is a lightly raced import with a good win strike rate who has been country shopping through Germany, France and Japan before landing in Australia. Only had the one preparation in Australia when he was sent out $3.50 favourite with 60kgs in Adelaide – and was well beaten Goodness knows who has the spare money to throw away on bets like that! Let them run and see how they go before jumping on, instead of believing the media spruiking. Multiple Group 1 winner overseas and interesting that they have gone to this race and not something easier, so stable must think he is going along OK. Blinkers first time. Watch betting moves – but couldn’t go anywhere near this one till we see some Australian form. No

12-MAGICOOL has been just plain darn annoying for most of his career and has definitely had an issue with the C word – consistency. Managed to run into form late last campaign with two wins at odds, which was surprising because he had a fairly tough campaign across 3 states. Firm track suits better and has won twice here. Did nothing 1st up and likely to drop well back from an inside barrier here. No

13-HI WORLD is a lightly raced 4YO with a good win strike rate.. Strung together 3 wins in a row in Sydney at the end of Autumn, and can go forward and make his own luck. Ran an excellent 4th in the Carbine Club on Derby Day here last year. Didn’t lead in the Memsie, but dropped behind them and fought it out pretty well most of the straight. Has drawn an outside barrier here – and interesting the 3 on pacers in this have all drawn outside – and his best form is racing forward so listen out for riding tactics. If he does go forward it does look like there is going to be a fair bit of pressure early on. He did run a good race 1st up here in the Autumn dropping back. The 1600M is as far as he wants though – so he would be a rough chance drawn well and racing forward on a slow speed, but think he will get outlasted by those looking for longer here. Happy to risk.

16-GUST OF WIND is a very lightly raced 4YO mare being set for bigger things this spring. Classic winning 3YO form, and has a massive finishing burst when unleashed. Didn’t show much 1st up against the Sydney WFA scene, and didn’t have much support either. Big track here and extra distance suits. Sure she will get some support at odds – but can see her right at the back of the field here from the barrier and think she will need an awful lot of luck. No

17-AWESOME ROCK (emerg) is a lightly raced 4YO who has only won 1 from 14 starts. Always drops well back in the run. Really good run in the Caulfield Guinea Prelude last spring, and fair enough form in short winter campaign this year. Settled handy and stuck on OK 1st up in a race where nothing really made ground. Lightly raced and has ability, but hard to see him being a factor against these. No

Summary: At first glance this looks a really tricky race, but if you sit down and walk through each runner think we can sort it all out. Ten of these runners have come through the Memsie, with another two who were entered but scratched, and it was a pretty bunched field there so suspect there is a good chance the winner will come from one outside that form line. 1-FAWKNER, 10-MONGOLIAN KHAN ,14-ALPINE EAGLE the most likely ones ticking that box. Else you have to make a case for who is going to improve the most from the Memsie, and really all of them will improve and there wasn’t much between them.

Think luck in running is going to be a huge factor today in a big field and suspect we might see one or more hard luck stories. Interestingly, all the speed is drawn out wide, with 9-ENTIRELY PLATINUM, 6-WEARY, 13-HI WORLD all having to work early if they want to go forward and the 15-RISING ROMANCE slotting in very nicely behind them. Listen out for riding tactic changes, they are going to be crucial.

We are going to put the 2-HAPPY TRAILS on top here, despite coming through the Memsie and think he represents the value in this race. Fitter for the 2 runs in, ready to win and should have finished much closer last start. Plus he is normally extremely reliable – just concerned a bit about the barrier and him getting blocked for runs, so would be good to see him ridden more forward today. The 14-ALPINE EAGLE if he steps up to his best form is going to be the one to beat, and the barrier, big track and genuine speed really means he has everything going his way today. 3-BOBAN beat most of these home last start so has to go in, and will probably get a dream rails run yet again (how does he do that?). Outside that, 15-RISING ROMANCE getting a good run behind the speed, and the two new form lines the 1-FAWKNER, 10-MONGOLIAN KHAN the other chances in a wide open race. Happy to go each way on the top pick 2-HAPPY TRAILS though who looks ready to produce though.


One to risk: 13-HI WORLD 13th W=$13.30
Roughie: 15-RISING ROMANCE 2nd W=$15.20

The Key: Bunched finish in the Memsie – look to others?


RESULTS: All the usual suspects in a very bunched finish, but the well backed 1-FAWKNER was too good. His Flemington and fresh record is astounding. The rest all seem to be ticking along OK, so it is going to be very hard to split them in later spring races.
 
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