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Turf Deli Free Form Guides and Tips - Lawrence (Liston) Stakes Day 2015

CAULFIELD: LAWRENCE (LISTON) STAKES - 15th August 2015
Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: CLOUDY - Rail: OUT 3M
Betting Portfolio ($50):
And We Are Off on yet another Spring Campaign.

Little bit of rain about during the week and just a few light showers heading into Saturday, so there should only be a little bit of give in the ground, but not much to report and probably heading towards a GOOD(3). Caulfield tends to race very evenly these days. Last meeting here the rail was TRUE and the racing pattern did just tend towards on pacers, so maybe just keep that in mind, but with the rail out a bit here we should get pretty even racing.

Despite being early in the spring quite keen to have a bet today. Doubt there will be many surprises, but there are plenty of each way chances worth having something on.

RESULTS: Track races very evenly, they can win running on or leading and horses can make good ground late. Plenty of good horses to follow coming out of today's meeting. We kicked off spring nicely with a nice profit in the Betting Portfolio.


BEST WIN: Race 7: 3-MOURINHO $10 WIN 1st W=$7.80 = $78
Quite happy to go with the proven WFA performer in the feature race. Although he is 1st up and might not be fully wound up, his recent fresh form is excellent and think he has a class edge on most of his rivals here. Should sit handy and give himself every chance and he is still very under rated. Think he is over the odds at around $6 and happy to back straight out.
RESULTS: Amazed by the odds on offer about this one, especially considering his WFA and 1st up form. Gets a perfect sit behind the speed and always looks the winner, but 2-THE CLEANER makes him earn it. Nice kick off to spring with a good collect on a Best Bet at nice odds.


BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 4-GRIANTE $4 WIN X
QUINELLA: Race 8: 4-GRIANTE#9,10 x $4 = 300% X / 3rd 10-YESTERDAY'S SONGS W=$5.10
QUINELLA: Race 8: 4-GRIANTE#5,6,8 x $3 = 100% X / 2nd 6-PLATINUM ROCKER W=$12.60
Really consistent mare who is 1st up here and does need to give a bit of weight to some up and comers down towards the bottom of the field. Won 3 from 6 here at Caulfield and put in a great run in a Group 1 sprint during the Autumn. Drawn out a little but think she can go forward and sit wide and in clear room in a race with not a huge amount of speed. Big even field here with lots of chances, but think she looks the safest way to go and should go well fresh. Back her straight out at around $8 and anchor her in a quinella with some of the other chances, the main danger being the 10-YESTERDAYíS SONGS (and think one of those two probably wins), and the value runner here being the consistent 9-PAGO ROCK back on a firm track from a good barrier.
RESULTS: Races forward and kicks to the lead in the straight and looks very promising, but fades badly towards the line. Usually a pretty genuine mare so run was a bit unusual.

BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 2-STREETS AWAY $5 EW 4th W=$13.10
Despite being labelled as roughie on his odds, we actually think he is one of the better each way bets of the day. Previously a very consistent on pacer, he has had some time off in the last two years, and one poor preparation. Had the 2 runs back, both of which have been excellent and he has been hitting the line well. Should be much fitter for those 2 runs and plenty of improvement to come. On his best form would go close to winning this even with the 60kgs. Just think he is about to return to form. He will sit handy here in a race with close to no speed and against a lot of drop back, run on horses and think he is going to do something today at very nice odds of around $17.
RESULTS: Drops far too far back in a race with little speed and we wanted him up near the front. Works to the line OK, but not the best ride by the jockey.

BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 5-TOP ME UP $4 EW 2nd W=$9.10, P=$2.50 = $10
This one led last start at MV and showed some kick early in the straight before fading on the line. Think that run may be better than it looks, the rails were off that day and they were winning swooping out wide. Ran a good race here earlier in the year in a Blue Diamond Prelude. Doesnít look to be much pressure up front here so might get a soft lead on a track that may tend towards on pacers so think he is worth something each way at around $9.50
RESULTS: They go really slowly in front and he is in the firing line most of the way down the straight, but finds one better over the last 100M.

BEST ROUGH: Race 4: 9-ROLL THE IGNITION $3 EW X
This one has been racing well and has a good win/place strike rate. Had the 2 runs back from a spell which have both been excellent and gets in with a light weight here. Drawn out and does like to go forward so might get caught out wide here in a race with a bit of speed. But in form, race fit and rolling along near the front think she is going to run a lot better than her $21 odds suggest and worth a little something each way.
RESULTS: Goes forward but is quickly beaten.

LAY OF THE DAY: Race 3: 2-SPIRIT OF HEAVEN at around $5.50 3rd W=$5.70
This one does seem to be running into form and wasnít beaten very far last start, but gets stuck at the top of the weights these days. Her best form is on wet ground and looks like this track is going to be drying out. Having said that it will probably start pouring down and she will romp in. Just prefer her on wet ground despite good recent form and the (3) from last start should have her measure today.
RESULTS: Racing consistently, but getting a little costly to follow and the 3-DIG A PONY has her measure today.

TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet.
QUINELLA: Race 4: 5,7,9,10,12 boxed x $5 = 50% 1st 10-VEZALAY W=$2.10, 2nd 7-MORE RADIANT W=$7.20, 3rd 12-I'M A FLYING STAR W=$31.80
Quinella = $7.00 x 0.5 = $3.50
There is a short priced favourite in this race, the (10), who is going to be hard to beat, but looks under the odds to us. Which means there are a lot of solid chances at good odds as a result, particularly the 5-SOOSA RAMA and 7-MORE RADIANT. So take a box quinella including our best rough, 9-ROLL THE IGNITION and if the favourite happens to bomb out the dividend should be OK.
RESULTS: Well there was something truly Wonderful there -we managed to turn $5 into $3.50! Summed up the race perfectly, finding the value runners but the punting hindsight is telling us we should have gone for the trifecta and been a bit more ambitious.

SPENT: $50
RETURN: $91.50
NET: $+41.50



The Tips:

Race 1: 9-GINGERBOY, 3-DIAMETRIC, 7-FRESHWATER STORM
Race 2: 2-STREETS AWAY, 6-IGGIMACOOL, 9-BARON ARCHER
Race 3: 3-DIG A PONY, 7-MAGNUS SLIPPER, 4-STYLISH MISS
Race 4: 5-SOOSA RAMA, 9-ROLL THE IGNITION, 7-MORE RADIANT
Race 5: 5-TOP ME UP, 7-GOLD SYMPHONY, 2-DEMONSTRATE
Race 6: 3-JALAN JALAN, 5-PETITS FILOUS, 12-STREAM AHEAD
Race 7: 3-MOURINHO, 1-SMOKIN' JOEY, 7-EXCESS KNOWLEDGE
Race 8: 4-GRIANTE, 10-YESTERDAYíS SONGS, 9-PAGO ROCK
Race 9: 12-HARADAFULL, 11-LANNISTER, 2-RAPOSO



RACE 1: RESULTS
Tips:
9-GINGERBOY
3-DIAMETRIC 3rd W=$2.90
7-FRESHWATER STORM

RACE 2: RESULTS
Tips:
2-STREETS AWAY
6-IGGIMACOOL 2nd W=$2.60
9-BARON ARCHER

RACE 3: RESULTS
Tips:
3-DIG A PONY 1st W=$4.00
7-MAGNUS SLIPPER
4-STYLISH MISS

RACE 4: RESULTS
Tips:
5-SOOSA RAMA
9-ROLL THE IGNITION
7-MORE RADIANT 2nd W=$7.20

RACE 5: RESULTS
Tips:
5-TOP ME UP 2nd W=$9.10
7-GOLD SYMPHONY 1st W=$6.50
2-DEMONSTRATE

Quinella: $25.60

RACE 6: RESULTS
Tips:
3-JALAN JALAN 2nd W=$5.20
5-PETITS FILOUS 1st W=$1.90
12-STREAM AHEAD SCR

Quinella: $3.70

RACE 7: RESULTS
Tips:
3-MOURINHO 1st W=$7.80 *** Best Win Bet Of The Day ***
1-SMOKIN' JOEY
7-EXCESS KNOWLEDGE

RACE 8: RESULTS
Tips:
4-GRIANTE
10-YESTERDAYíS SONGS 3rd W=$5.10
9-PAGO ROCK

RACE 9: RESULTS
Tips:
12-HARADAFULL SCR
11-LANNISTER
2-RAPOSO



RACE 7: LAWRENCE (LISTON) STAKES GROUP 2 1400M WFA
Tips:
3-MOURINHO 1st W=$7.80
1-SMOKIN' JOEY
7-EXCESS KNOWLEDGE

Others: 2

Pace: GOOD
Leaders: 2-THE CLEANER
Handy: 3-MOURINHO, 5-BIG MEMORY, 6-TAIYOO, 7-EXCESS KNOWLEDGE
Back: 1-SMOKIN' JOEY, 4-DIBAYANI, 8-PETROLOGY , 9-NO TRICKS

Chances:
1-SMOKIN' JOEY is an old marvel who has really gone up a notch over the last 18 months since the new stable sorted him out. Firmer track suits him and he has won 4 times here. He has been really competitive at the top level in quite a few races and this field isnít strong. Noted backmarker who does like the speed on and likes to drop back and run on. But he has a very distinctive racing style in that he can make a long sustained run and quite often they set him alight wide and early which means he can be competitive over shorter distances and in races with not much speed also. Fitness edge on his rivals here and he is in winning form against a field that doesnít have much WFA form. Probably better suited to small fields like these, as he can take off early without being used up too much. Looks hard to beat here.

2-THE CLEANER is well known for his tough front running antics and is well placed in these early WFA races. Should get a pretty clear lead here in a small field with lots of 1st up and drop back horses. Was a sensation last spring when the Cox Plate was just a bit too much, but effort in the Emirates to stick on for 3rd was pretty solid. Didnít quite set the world on fire during the Autumn and his last run here over 2000M was probably pretty disappointing. Maybe a slight query over him if he is feeling the effects after several pretty solid campaigns. Is going to start pretty decent odds today on his best form. His fresh form is pretty solid. Maybe just watch the market on him to see how much confidence there is. Chance, but actually prefer to see him again before getting on. 2nd W=$9.20

3-MOURINHO is one of our favourite horses and continually under rated, having now won a Cranbourne Cup, Australia Stakes and Peter Young (St George). He definitely wants the firmer track which he should get here. His big plus is that he camps on the speed and just keeps on going and puts himself into the race. His recent 1st up form is actually really good, he won 1st up this time last year at MV over 1500M, and then won the Australia Stakes over 1200M at MV 1st up in January. Maybe the question mark here is going to be how forward he is fresh, as sure the stable has a spring major in mind and it is early days still, so maybe just watch the market and listen out for the trainer interviews. But he is a proven on pace WFA performer in a race where there arenít many and think he will be right in the finish here regardless. Go well. 1st W=$7.80

7-EXCESS KNOWLEDGE is a lightly raced Waterhouse stable runner with a good win strike rate. Import who has had a few preparations here now and seems to be improving with each start and should have further improved over the break. Another who can race handy and there is a surprising amount of speed in this race this year. Lightly raced and you would think would go well fresh, but is going up in grade again here. Will probably run OK and sure there will be money for this one. Chance.

Place:
6-TAIYOO is simply a winner Ė 13 wins from 27 starts Ė nice work! Won 7 of his last 9 starts and was then was beaten a whisker in the Adelaide Cup in a super tight photo finish - not that those watching Sky Channel would have known because as soon as they hit the line it was straight off to the next dog race. Definitely on the way up and be interesting to see where he gets to this spring. Firm track suits. Not a WFA horse but was winning with big weights last campaign and he can go forward and sit just off he speed here. You would think he may just need a run or two to find his best, but will race more forward than many of these and the speed should be OK here with the (2) leading so think he will show something 1st up. Rough chance and worth throwing into the 1st 4 to blow the dividend out..

8-PETROLOGY is a lightly raced Hayes runner and the stable have a huge opinion of this one, but he hasnít quite worked it all out yet. Didnít live up to the hype in the Autumn, but put the writing on the wall with his two impressive wins at the end of last spring. Ran home really well here 1st up over 1200M and much better suited out to 1400M here with the speed on as a dead set drop back and run on horse. Capable of an upset here if they are running on well today, but he is one that it is a bit hard to back with any real confidence. Prefer place.

Sacking:
4-DIBAYANI is an import with solid Group 1 form overseas in Hong Kong and having his first start down under for an Australian stable. Sure to be lots of interest, but the 2 wins from 13 starts strike rate is a bit concerning, but guess he has been racing in the top company. Likely to drop back here and will probably want some distance to show his best. Never a huge fan of jumping on these imports 1st up in Australia, so many of them are spruiked and so often donít preform. So yes, he may jump out and win and he may get solid support, but from a punting point of view happy to let him go around. Risking 3rd W=$6.30

5-BIG MEMORY is a pretty solid stayer who we donít think we have not seen the best of yet. Ran some really good staying races last spring, and didnít disappoint too much during the Autumn though couldnít win one. 1st up today. Last few 1st up runs have been OK too, 4th beaten < 1L back here in the Autumn and 2nd at Flem last spring, but note those races were over 1600M and 1700M and we are over 1400M today. Not a real WFA horse and heading for bigger targets in the spring so probably wonít be too forward and will work home OK to be towards the minor placings. No 4th W=$9.10

9-NO TRICKS is a Mt Gambier trained, NZ import who has raced mainly in QLD Ė who says racing is not multicultural! Only lightly raced but does seem to prefer wet ground and this looks just like a warm up run for further distances later in the spring. No.

Summary: Actually quite an interesting little race to kick of the spring, even if there isnít much in the way of WFA form going into this. This race is usually won by horses 1st up, but fit on pace horses can pinch these early WFA races, especially in fields with lots of drop back horses doing spring warm up jogs.

The speed here actually looks quite solid, which is surprising for these early WFA races, with 2-THE CLEANER running along in front, and 3-MOURINHO, 7-EXCESS KNOWLEDGE sitting behind him, with the likelihood that 1-SMOKIN' JOEY makes a run early and wide on the home turn as he often does.

Actually happy to back the 3-MOURINHO here on trust 1st up, recent 1st up form has been excellent and even if he isnít fully wound up, he is the genuine proven WFA performer here and will sit just off the speed, which might mean he has more kick when the 1-SMOKIN' JOEY comes around them, who is the main danger. 7-EXCESS KNOWLEDGE the other chance sitting on the speed, but quite happy to just back 3-MOURINHO who we think is over the odds at around $7.

One to risk: 4-DIBAYANI 3rd W=$6.30
Roughie: 6-TAIYOO

The Key: Forward enough to win over 1400M.

RESULTS: We were quite keen on the top pick here, the 3-MOURINHO 1st W=$7.80 who has solid WFA form and excellent fresh form and he got a perfect run behind the speed to only just edge out that tough bastard 2-THE CLEANER. Lots of promising spring runs behind them but the 6-TAIYOO was definitely the eye catcher and the one to follow back to a handicap.

 
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