CAULFIELD : Dubai Racing Cup - 19th Sept 2004 Track: DEAD - Weather: Fine - Rail: TRUE Betting Portfolio ($50): The track is currently rated SLOW, but this meeting is not until Sunday as the MRC know this meeting is always really hard on the form students, so gives them an extra day to study up. The weather is looking pretty good for the next couple of days, so we are expecting an improvement to a genuine dead by race day. Caulfield has been racing evenly the last couple of meetings after having a horror run as a leader’s track. Rail is back to the TRUE position today for the 1st time in a while, so just keep an eye on things in case the best ground is against the rails. On a very tough card with big fields which should ensure genuine speed in most races it might be an idea to tend towards those well drawn and who will sit just behind the speed. Always a great meeting and wide open fields means plenty of value and a super tough program to spend hours pondering over. Betting suggestion to spread win bets over several horses in each race as there are plenty of chances and you will get good odds about anything you like. Very tough program indeed. Best Win: Race 7: 11-DELZAO and 5-HUGS DANCER $10 WIN Best Each Way : Race 1: 5-COUNTRY LODGE $5 EW No hope from outside barrier on leader's track - get on next start again. Quinella : Race 4 : Box 4,14,15 x $5 = $15 1st 15-HOLLOW BULLET W=$19.70 but the others let us down.. Best Rough : Race 5: 13-TENACIOUS SPIRIT $2.50 EW 4th W=$91.60 !!!!- ALMOST ! Spent : $50 Return : $0 Net : $-50 Results : Betting portfolio bombs out again, but was unlucky. Picked the track bias correctly with on pacers dominating and it shows with a stack of winners in the selections. The Tips: Race 1: 5-COUNTRY LODGE, 4-NIAGARA FALLS, 12-LOYAL LAUREN Race 2: 15-SHIVIRGO, 5-BLESSUM, 18-DIAMONDS AND CHALK (emerg), 14-BUSHIDO Race 3: 3-BARELY A MOMENT, 2-FASTNET ROCK, 6-CLASSICONI Race 4: 14-GRANMA GERTEY, 15-HOLLOW BULLET, 4-LADY OF THE DESERT Race 5: 11-ALINGHI, 3-REGAL ROLLER, 13-TENACIOUS SPIRIT Race 6: 8-CONFECTIONER, 12-FREE AT LAST, 17-SUBTLE IRONY (emerg), 15-ZINGAM Race 7: 11-DELZAO, 5-HUGS DANCER, 14-ZAGALIA Race 8: 6-STRIKELINE, 19-ZAKURO (emerg), 9-ZAKYNTHOS STAR, 7-CARLTON SPIRIT RACE 1: RESULTS Tips: 5-COUNTRY LODGE 4-NIAGARA FALLS SCR 12-LOYAL LAUREN 1st W=$10.30 RACE 2: RESULTS Tips: 15-SHIVIRGO 1st W=$12.30 ******* NICE PRICED WINNER ON TOP *********** 5-BLESSUM 18-DIAMONDS AND CHALK RACE 3: RESULTS Tips: 3-BARELY A MOMENT 2-FASTNET ROCK 2nd W=$1.60 (very silly odds) 6-CLASSICONI 3rd W=$10.10 RACE 4: RESULTS Tips: 14-GRANMA GERTEY 15-HOLLOW BULLET 1st W=$19.70 ******** very nice thank you ! ********* 4-LADY OF THE DESERT RACE 5: RESULTS Tips: 11-ALINGHI 3rd W=$2.40 3-REGAL ROLLER 1st W=$4.20 13-TENACIOUS SPIRIT 4th W=$91.60 !!!! RACE 6: RESULTS Tips: 8-CONFECTIONER 1st W=$4.70 12-FREE AT LAST 17-SUBTLE IRONY RACE 7: RESULTS Tips: 11-DELZAO 3rd W=$5.00 5-HUGS DANCER 14-ZAGALIA RACE 8: RESULTS Tips: 6-STRIKELINE 1st W=$3.30 9-ZAKYNTHOS STAR 7-CARLTON SPIRIT RACE 5: DUBAI RACING CLUB CUP 1400M GROUP 1 Tips: 11-ALINGHI 3rd W=$2.40 3-REGAL ROLLER 1st W=$4.20 13-TENACIOUS SPIRIT 4th W=$91.60 !!!! Others: 8, 6 Pace: Leaders : 3-REGAL ROLLER Handy : 1-YELL, 4-OUR EGYPTIAN RAINE, 6-DILLY DALLY, 7-SCAREDEE CAT, 8-REACTIVE, 13-TENACIOUS SPIRIT Back : 2-TITANIC JACK, 5-CHARMING CITY, 9-CHARGE FORWARD, 11-ALINGHI, 12-SARAH VEE Chances: 3-REGAL ROLLER pretty much owns the Caulfield 1400M (five times winner). Wonderful horse to watch who sets the speed and just flattens and runs away from them in the straight. Likely to be a bit more pressure in the lead here today - 1-YELL in particular is pretty good at sitting outside leaders and pressuring them out of it. Then again, the same tactic was tried last start by VOCABULARY and it didn’t make any difference at all. Just going way too well to leave out, and especially watch out if leaders are shown to be advantaged. Chance 1st W=$4.20 6-DILLY DALLY has been racing very consistently and is fitter for the 2 runs in and ready to fire. Don’t think she has been really handling the wet tracks and think she will improve rapidly once she gets a genuinely firm surface. Very talented and capable of winning this race - query is whether she can finish it off over 1400M. Ran 5th here as a 3YO in only try over the distance. Rough chance. 8-REACTIVE is well drawn and should be fitter for the 2 runs in. She ran 2nd in this race last year at her 3rd run in as well. Does have a liking for this track and does seem very well weighed in this considering she on the Oakleigh Plate here during the Autumn. She should be able to sit right on the speed here and put herself into the finish. Strong chance. 11-ALINGHI is an absolute freak. High class 3YOs can win this race and always appeal down at the bottom of the weights (although you need to check what they are carrying compared to WFA - she has to carry over WFA). Like we said last time, our major concern with her is that she had been a bit tardy early on in her races and setting herself a major challenge every time she raced - which she was capable of meeting, but eventually it would bring her undone. So it was good to see her sitting just off them last start and absolutely destroying them. She faces a few challenges here - 1400M 1st time, open company 1st time, but does love Caulfield. Worth noting that she has dropped out badly in her recent Caulfield runs and she would not want to do that today against some better than average on pacers. Should have the class to win this - but if you are going to back her you do want to get the odds that reflect that she is stepping up another level again today. One to beat. 3rd W=$2.40 13-TENACIOUS SPIRIT is racing extremely well and has drawn perfectly to box seat again here behind the speed (like she did last time). Fitter for the 2 runs in and does go well here. Had no weight last start when won in Listed company, so has to face a big rise in class into the Group 1. Just think she is going to get a race run to suit here, she can sit with cover off the leader and she will hook out in the straight and run right into the finish of this at good odds. Genuine rough chance. Place: 1-YELL seems to be back to close to his best form this time in. Should be fitter for the 2 runs this time in and right at peak today. 1400M is as far as he wants, but capable of mixing it with the best over this distance. Came out from behind leader last run and pulled a little ground off him in the straight. Best runs are when he can sit on the leader and pressure them, and he is drawn to do that today. Think he will be right in the finish, only problem is that he has to give 6kgs here to lots of up and comers at the bottom of the weights - and get the feeling that at least one of them will be good enough to put that advantage to good use. Meets the (6) 1.5kgs worse off from last run. Placed 7 from 8 this track and almost certainly in the finish, but prefer place. 12-SARAH VEE is aiming pretty high here, but good run 1st up here when she made ground and always forgive a flat 2nd up effort (she did go forward from an outside barrier). Fitter for the 2 runs in and especially the 1400M run and probably worth a rough place chance with no weight. Sacking: 2-TITANIC JACK is well drawn and should be fitter for 2 runs this time in. Up 200M again here. Floundered badly last start when did not handle the going, but has never been happy on wet ground. Important to watch track conditions here as this is one who definitely needs to better side of dead. Did run 3rd in this race last year, but that was when he won the Bobbie Lewis in the lead up, and ran miserably in that race this year. Have to leave out. 4-OUR EGYPTIAN RAINE is 1st up and does have a very impressive 1st up record - won 3 from 6 and placed 6 from 6 - these have all been at 1200M and under though. High class sprinting mare, who has yet to win past 1200M (although she has placed 3 from 5 at the 1400M and gone within a neck in a Group 1 1400M race). Drawn well and should get a perfect run just behind the speed here. Probably best to watch market cause she is the type that will attract a lot of support if she is right. Went well in recent trial, but 1st up over 1400M is a big ask, especially in Group 1 company and that if anything means we will leave her out today in a talented field. 2nd W=$9.20 5-CHARMING CITY is an 8YO OS visitor who surprised all when he ploughed through a very wet track to score easily last start coming off a 10 month break. 2nd up, up 300M here and up into Group1 class (although he was won in group 1 class OS) should find him out. Would need to see him win again to be really convinced. No 7-SCAREDEE CAT ran a solid race 1st up at Flem and does meet the (10) 1.5kgs better off today for a narrow defeat. Was a straight out speedster early on in his career and won last years Ascot Vale at big odds. More recently he has been ridden back in the field, but surely the lure of barrier 1 will see him racing close to the speed. Again 1400M is the query here, although he was not beaten too far in the Stradbroke. Think he needs a bit of give in the ground to show best. Passing with a few things against him here today. 9-CHARGE FORWARD is a Sydney 3YO who only just got beaten in the Golden Slipper and has been racing well up there - although it is a bit hard to judge the lead up form in such small fields. Sure to be plenty of Sydney money around, just a bit put off that they choose to run his main Sydney rival FASTNET ROCK (who beat him easily last start) in the Guineas Prelude rather than this - think the other one is much better and think you need to be the dominant 3YO to win this. 1400M 1st time, open company 1st time - but then again EXCEED AND EXCEL did the same thing in this race last year. Not quite convinced about this guy yet. Just a few unknowns and prefer to stick to the ones we can line up at the moment. Risking. 10-FACE VALUE is a very consistent type who won well 1st up down the straight. Not well weighted from that win against the (7). Probably drifts back a little here and you might find 2nd up and up 200M he races a little flat. Prefer to risk. Summary: Always a highly competitive (and sometimes quite rough race). Pace should be genuine with 3-REGAL ROLLER leading - again the question is who and what is going to put pressure on him. Suspect 1-YELL will push forward and sit outside the leader and 7-SCAREDEE CAT might go forward from the inside, with 4-OUR EGYPTIAN RAINE and 13-TENACIOUS SPIRIT sitting just behind them. 3-REGAL ROLLER has shown before though he is pretty darn tough and it takes a lot to throw him off his game. Tipping 11-ALINGHI on top, on the rise with no weight is the obvious one to beat - today will tell whether she is freak sprinter or just a total freak. Even if she is just a sprinter this race can be won by class sprinters. She does have hype written all over here though (although its deserved), but it means she will always start very short on the tote ( < $2.50?) and doesn’t represent a betting proposition for us as we don’t back short priced favourites. If you do take the short odds just hope she jumps and runs, cause suspect if she labours towards the back of the field she might be in trouble today. With a short priced favourite though there will be plenty of value about the others, so from a betting point of view we will probably just play with the value runners 13-TENACIOUS SPIRIT and 8-REACTIVE. One to risk: 10-FACE VALUE Roughie: 13-TENACIOUS SPIRIT 4th W=$91.60 !!!! Results: REGAL ROLLER goes on his winning way and kills them yet again. Racing in amazing form and what is even more amazing is that he keep starting around the $4.00 mark despite his decisive winners - he if was from a major stable with some hype around him and won like that he would be even money every start. Results : Summed up the race well with YELL sitting off the winner, but still making no difference to the result and bolter TENACIOUS SPIRIT putting in a huge run sitting just off the speed and only just missing the placing. Watch out for TITANIC JACK who seems ready to get back to some form.

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