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Turf Deli Free Form Guides and Tips - Naturalism Stakes 2015
CAULFIELD: NATURALISM STAKES - 19th Sept 2015
Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: CLOUDY - Rail: OUT 9M

Betting Portfolio ($50):
Fairly clear weather heading into the weekend so this track will probably get to a firm GOOD(3). Last meeting here the rail was OUT 6M and the racing pattern tended to favour those on speed, but it was on a wet track. With the rail well out just see if they are making ground or not, the racing pattern may favour those racing on the speed.

Extremely lack lustre day on the punt with not much interest in these fields so you may want to head to Sydney for you Saturday arvo betting. We seem to have gone with most of the obvious picks, and there doesn’t seem to be much value around today. Quite of few of these are going to start quite short too, but we prefer not to back short priced favourites in the Betting Portfolio, so will try and find some at backable odds.

RESULTS: Track races evenly, but does tend to favour those running on late and there are even a few races where those from the back of the field feature in the finish. The Early Birds get the Early Quad, but the tips tend to falter coming into the tougher races later in the day. Started off well in the Betting Portfolio, but just couldn't find a second collect to slide into profit.


BEST BET: Race 5: 2-GIULIETTA $8 WIN X
Field of lightly raced 3YO fillies so guess something can suddenly improve, but this one seems to be going along the best of these at the moment. Fitter for the 2 runs in, and should have a lot of improvement to come after stepping up from 1100M to 1400M last start. Effort here last run was excellent when led and fought on well behind a smart one, and from a good barrier today she should go forward in a race with not much speed again and looks the one to beat. Straight out at around $3.80, but might start shorter on the day.
RESULTS: Gets a perfect on speed run and looks like she will be right in the finish on the turn, but is disappointing.

BEST WIN: Race 2: 4-GOOD VALUE $6 WIN 1st W=$5.20 = $31.20
QUINELLA: Race 2: 4-GOOD VALUE, 2-RHYTHM TO SPARE x $2 1st 4-GOOD VALUE W=$5.20 / X
QUINELLA: Race 2: 4-GOOD VALUE, 5-LORD DURANTE x $2 1st 4-GOOD VALUE W=$5.20 / X
This one is very consistent and is well and truly overdue for a win. Last preparation he was right in the finish on multiple occasions – looked the winner 2nd up at Flemington when just hit the lead too early, struggled on a heavy track in Sydney, right in the finish of the Winter Championship, and then pretty ordinary ride here last start when dropped well back from a good barrier with a big weight and finished on well. Had a freshen up and normally races on speed and pretty reliable. Happy to back straight out here at around $4.40 and then take a few quinellas with the (2) better suited on a firmer track, and the (5) although dropping sharply in distance who should get a soft lead. Quite keen that this one wins though.
RESULTS: Slowly away again and that wasn't a positive sign but he comes with a good run late, and we were lucky to get the photo finish by an eyelash (even better as it was against the Lay Of The Day).

BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 7-TYCOON TARA $5 EW X
The mares race is one of the better betting races of the day and we are hoping this one will jump and run from an outside barrier and often they can win going to the lead from the 1200M start here. Two times winner at Caulfield, and she did exactly that 2nd up here back at the start of the year over this distance, beating a few who are going around again here. Good win strike rate. 2nd up here, and up 200M isn’t ideal, but was even enough effort 1st up in good open class group race over the 1000M, and this looks more suitable. Each way at around $8.50
RESULTS: Riding tactics are to go forward, however, everyone else did the same and she was unable to cross. Hard run on the speed and faded, forgive this run.

BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 11-LET'S MAKE ADEAL $3 EW X
Doesn’t win that often, but doesn’t get to race in winnable races that often either. Has run some great races here – and also had an awful lot of back luck here. In this race last year she was badly chopped out going for runs about 100M to go. 1st up run doesn’t look that great, but they dropped her well back in the run from an outside barrier, she made a little ground late, not much was making ground that day and the wet track didn’t suit. Good barrier today and expect to see her ridden around mid field. Expect a much better run today. Best of the ducklings in a race with not much form and let’s have something each way at around $15 in one of the few races today with some value in it.
RESULTS: Ran a lot better and wasn't too far off them in the finish, but just isn't a winner - have tipped her a few times now and definitely time to give it up.

BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 4-DEL PIERO $3 EW X
Last race is genuinely wide open with a full field of 3YO’s heading out to the 1600M. We quite liked the run of this one last start, stepping up sharply in distance went wide and early off a slow speed and challenged in the straight but died on the run. Probably not that much between them coming out of that race, but think he might get forgotten in betting and drift out. Good barrier and should be able to settle handy here and put himself into the race at the right time. Little something each way at around $26 and does seem over the odds on his last start effort which was solid.
RESULTS: Handy coming to the home turn, but run over in the straight by many looking for further.

QUINELLA: Race 6: 7-THERMAL CURRENT - 9-JAVA x $2 X
QUINELLA: Race 6: 7-THERMAL CURRENT - 5-FELL SWOOP x $1.50 X / 1st 5-FELL SWOOP W=$2.50
QUINELLA: Race 6: 7-THERMAL CURRENT - 3-THE BOWLER x $1.50 X
This one is normally pretty consistent when in form and last preparation was excellent. Win strike rate isn’t the best, but placed 4 from 6 this track. 1st up run didn’t do much, but suspect the wet track didn’t suit and he spent ages refusing to leave the mounting yard so maybe forgive that run. Not that much speed here and should jump and sit handy and suspect he might improve today and get into the finish at around $12. Might find one better though, so let’s take quinellas with the smart (9) resuming, the (5) who we suspect is due to get beaten and the consistent (3).
RESULTS: Gets perfect lead and was disappointing - appears to be off form at the moment.

LAY OF THE DAY: Race 2: 1-RUGGED CROSS at around $5 2nd W=$8.10
Consistent Sydney galloper transferred to new stable and has run 3 placings from 3 starts here and won 4 times at the distance. But changed stables, had a month off, comes in a top weight here and best form is on wet tracks and this track should come up quite firm. Suspect he may drop back here from an outside barrier off a break in a race without much speed, and prefer to be on others.
RESULTS: Extremely lucky to get away with this one, as he looked the winner as they crossed the line. Phew!

TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet.
QUINELLA: Race 8: 3,11,14,16,17 boxed x $5 = 50% 2nd 17-THE UNITED STATES W=$3.70, 3rd 16-GENUINE LAD W=$25.90
Suspect one or more at odds will get into the finish of the main race with lots of horses likely to improve up in distance. The 17-THE UNITED STATES looks the one to beat, the 14-KAPOUR a solid chance, but let’s throw in the roughies 11-LET'S MAKE ADEAL, 3-TAIYOO and super roughie the 16-GENUINE LAD and try and snare a decent collect.
RESULTS: Found the good value roughie in the finish, but unfortunately missed the winner.

SPENT: $50
RETURN: $31.20
NET: -$18.80


The Tips:

Race 1: 5-KEEN ARRAY, 6-MAWAHIBB, 9-DYNAMIC DAY
Race 2: 4-GOOD VALUE, 2-RHYTHM TO SPARE, 5-LORD DURANTE
Race 3: 11-KAPSET, 6-SO DOES HE, 8-COLLINS STREET
Race 4: 5-SARDAAJ, 13-KAYJAY’S JOY, 7-DANESTROEM
Race 5: 2-GIULIETTA, 3-DON’T DOUBT MAMMA, 11-SACRED EYE
Race 6: 9-JAVA, 7-THERMAL CURRENT, 5-FELL SWOOP
Race 7: 7-TYCOON TARA, 14-VEZALAY, 1-HAZARD
Race 8: 11-LET'S MAKE ADEAL, 17 -THE UNITED STATES , 14-KAPOUR
Race 9: 4-DEL PIERO, 17-ASSERTIVE STAR (emerg), 13-POLISH TIGER, 12-PAY UP BRO



RACE 1: RESULTS
Tips:
5-KEEN ARRAY 2nd W=$1.90
6-MAWAHIBB 3rd W=$6.90
9-DYNAMIC DAY

RACE 2: RESULTS
Tips:
4-GOOD VALUE 1st W=$5.20
2-RHYTHM TO SPARE
5-LORD DURANTE

RACE 3: RESULTS
Tips:
11-KAPSET
6-SO DOES HE 1st W=$5.90
8-COLLINS STREET

RACE 4: RESULTS
Tips:
5-SARDAAJ
13-KAYJAY’S JOY 1st W=$9.90
7-DANESTROEM 2nd W=$16.60

Quinella = $50.50

RACE 5: RESULTS
Tips:
2-GIULIETTA
3-DON’T DOUBT MAMMA 1st W=$3.70
11-SACRED EYE 2nd W=$3.40

Quinella = $7.80
Early Quad = $3101.50

RACE 6: RESULTS
Tips:
9-JAVA
7-THERMAL CURRENT
5-FELL SWOOP 1st W=$2.50

RACE 7: RESULTS
Tips:
7-TYCOON TARA
14-VEZALAY
1-HAZARD

RACE 8: RESULTS
Tips:
11-LET'S MAKE ADEAL
17 -THE UNITED STATES 2nd W=$3.70
14-KAPOUR

RACE 9: RESULTS
Tips:
4-DEL PIERO
17-ASSERTIVE STAR
12-PAY UP BRO




RACE 8: NATURALISM STAKES GROUP 3 2000M
Tips:
11-LET'S MAKE ADEAL
17 -THE UNITED STATES 2nd W=$3.70
14-KAPOUR

Others: 3, 16, 19

Pace: EVEN
Leaders: 14-KAPOUR (wide)
Handy: 2-SERTORIUS, 3-TAIYOO, 7-PRINCE CHERI, 10-CAFE SOCIETY, 15-MAGNAPAL, 16-GENUINE LAD (wide), 20 -LORD DURANTE (emerg)
Back: 1-OUR IVANHOWE, 4-HAWKSPUR, 5-ALMOONQITH, 8-SONNTAG, 9-LA AMISTAD, 11-LET'S MAKE ADEAL, 12-LIKE A CAROUSEL, 13-BOLD SNIPER, 17 -THE UNITED STATES (emerg), 18 -ETHIOPIA (emerg)

Chances:
3-TAIYOO looked like he was going to be a major player this spring with his fast finishing 1st up effort here in the Lawrence, but he hasn’t gone on with it his last 2 starts. Real up and comer who put together a fantastic winning streak over summer, and only just got beaten in the Adelaide Cup carrying a whopping 59kgs in a tight photo finish (and off Sky Channel went to the next obscure greyhound race). Deserves to be set at some good races this spring – if he can just get his form back. 2nd up here he dropped back and did nothing and then last week at Flemington he was set alight early and cleared out to a decent lead, but didn’t really fight on (again under a big weight though). Interesting they are backing him up again a week later. Dry track suits. Better weighted here and should be ready to show something with the 3 runs in. Inside barrier and should race handy in a field of a lot of drop back stayers and make his own luck. Think you have to put him in as a chance, despite disappointing his last two runs – if he gets back on song he has a lot in his favour today. Rough.

11-LET'S MAKE ADEAL is a super consistent staying mare who often doesn’t have the best of luck in her races (remember how she almost fell here in the Herbert Power?), but also doesn’t win that often. She has been set unrealistic tasks quite a few times though and is better suited back in grade here. Dry track suits. She has always shown a bit of ability. Seemed to finally step up over winter in Adelaide when dropped back to mare’s class. Her Caulfield form line doesn’t look the best, 7 starts for only 1 placing, but she wasn’t beaten far at all here in the Herbert Power last spring, and finished 4th when almost fell out of the straight the first time in that race in 2013. Got totally chopped out for a run 100M from home here in this race last year too. Made some ground when well beaten here last start on an unsuitable wet track from a bad barrier. 2nd up and up 300M, but think she is a chance here. Like the weight, drawn a nice barrier, she has raced in Group 1 class for so much of her career and liked her mid year campaign so suspect she might improve rapidly here. Just more genuine than most of these. Chance.

14-KAPOUR is another import who has been going along OK Down Under, and you would think now into his 3rd preparation he might really start to put it all together. Lightly raced, good win strike rate, and mid year form is good enough for this race. Had a let up and good again in 1st run back, so probably one of the few runners in this field who are race fit and currently in any sort of form. Although form lines do look like he wants a wet track, think that is misleading. Can go forward too and make his own luck and Oliver on board. Question mark here is what they do from barrier (20)?, so listen out for riding tactics. There isn’t that much speed here so assume the slowly move forward inch by inch. Think he has to go in despite the barrier – so many of these have no form, and this one actually seems to be on the improve. Chance.

17 -THE UNITED STATES (emerg) is one that is finding a bit of form after a long lay off and definitely gets into this field now with the scratching of the (6). Which is going to be a bit of a strange way to qualify for the Caulfield Cup if he wins this race - only after getting into the field after another horse died. Does have a lot of ability and been raced sparingly in the last year as obviously has issues. Strong win 1st up at MV this time in and then was a drifter in the market who looked the winner last start but turned it up a bit in the straight. Interesting that there are no gear changes today. Drawn OK, the extra distance should suit, the bigger track definitely should suit and one of the few runners here going places. Suspect he might get well backed though so not sure he will represent much value, but looks the one to beat. Strong chance. 2nd W=$3.70

Place:
2-SERTORIUS is a tough, capable stayer who has performed well at WFA level before, and often been around the placings. Better suited at this level and doesn’t seem too badly weighted against these carrying 57kgs. Dry track suits. Caulfield form is actually pretty good, with 3 wins and 2 placings from 8 starts. Placed 6 from 7 2nd up too. 2nd up here, and up 600M is a big step in distance early in his campaign, but he did win 2nd up here mid year at this trip. Probably has a bit of class on most of these too. Didn’t come up last spring, so the question mark is will he this spring? He is normally not too bad fresh and his run in the Memsie wasn’t overly impressive, though guess it was a bunched finish. On his best form he probably wins this – not quite convinced how he is going at the moment though. Rough only.

5-ALMOONQITH is an import in his first preparation in Australia and seems to be coming along OK. Hayes stable and group winner overseas. Had the 2 runs this preparation – wasn’t far off at all 1st up at MV when got up on the rails, and then faded in probably a weaker race last start. Blinkers go on here. Think the bigger track here at Caulfield is probably a big plus. Was less than < 1L from the (17) 2 starts back so guess that puts him around the finish here. These imports can suddenly improve too. Rough place.

13-BOLD SNIPER is another import having his first campaign in Australia and is owned by Her Majesty The Queen , who is about the only person in the world who can afford to own a horse outright. Having just broken the record for longest reigning Monarch, she is looking to add the Naturalism Stakes to her winning week. 2nd up here and was supported 1st up when wasn’t too far off but again, no idea why these horses get backed 1st start in Australia – wait and see how they go! Watch market again here. Really hasn’t got much in the way of opposition or form horses in this so might be a factor here. Hard to judge if last start was any good, but rough. Rough chance. 4th W=$20.50

15-MAGNAPAL is the only last start winner in this field, which pretty much makes him a good thing. He has had 35 starts, but seems to have suddenly gone up a level recently, which is unusual. Won twice here at Caulfield, but the 8 starts at the 2000M for only the 1 second has to ring a few alarm bells, and yet to win past 1800M. Actually looking closely the distance is a major issue, although he has been tried over further, a few of his 2000M runs he was well in the market. Obviously racing in career best form and the 2nd place getter from last start won last week at Flemington. Fitter for the 2 runs in. Also beat several of these home last start here too. Should race handy and well drawn. Hard to believe this – but the only last start winner in this field – and we want to take him on! Race fit, and in form and will sit on the speed here and be in the finish – but just think out to the 2000M here, in a field with lot of stayers looking for more ground, with him suspect at the trip means he will find one better today. Place only.1st W=$5.10

16-GENUINE LAD is a boring old Tassie runner in a field of fancy imports. Excellent win strike rate. Before this campaign had placed in last 12 starts. Transferred to a new stable for a shot at something bigger for this spring. Got suitable wet track 1st up here, but had no support and dropped out last in a race where nothing much made any ground. 2nd up and up 600M is a big step up, but also out to a more suitable trip. Hard to have on 1st up run, but that run may be better than it looks so just be wary. Another who may go forward from an outside barrier. Probably not a winning chance, but put in your trifectas and first fours as a value runner as suspect will run better today than odds suggest. Place. 3rd W=$25.90

19 -OUR VOODOO PRINCE (emerg) was mixing his form for a while, but seems to be back on song. Two times winner here and solid record this distance. Well drawn and last 2 runs have both been good. Race fit and in form – unlike many of these. This is probably a fair bit harder and he is unlikely to make the field, but if he does would be a solid place chance. Place. SCR

20 -LORD DURANTE (emerg) is a super consistent on pacer, who seems to be coping with the 2000M trip, although we always thought he was suspect at the distance. 3 times winner here. Super fit and reliable and has been around the finish 4 of his last 5 starts. Was in the lead just before the finishing post last start at MV. Think he is much better on a dry track and he always gets the perfect run on the speed. He won’t be far away, but think the 2000M is just as far as he wants, and he will get found out by a more solid stayer in this. Place only. SCR

Sacking:
1-OUR IVANHOWE was entered to run last week in the Makybe Diva, but has been kept for this race over further – but with a big weight. Lightly raced import with a good win strike rate who has been country shopping through Germany, France and Japan before landing in Australia. Only had the one preparation in Australia when he was sent out $3.50 favourite with 60kgs in Adelaide – and was well beaten Goodness knows who has the spare money to throw away on bets like that! Let them run and see how they go before jumping on, instead of believing the media and stable spruiking. Multiple Group 1 winner overseas. Blinkers first time. Won a recent barrier trial beating umm….18-ETHIOPIA, which is hardly anything to jump up and down about. Watch betting moves – but couldn’t go anywhere near this one till we see some Australian form. No

4-HAWKSPUR is a former top liner who has been dropped down a notch. Started favourite here in the 2013 Caulfield Cup and the buzz has well and truly gone off this one. Sydney sider coming into this with the 2 runs in, and a consistent 11th and 11th – which is probably as good as form as half of these today. Tends to drop back in the run and does have a history of finding trouble. Lots of form queries, the 9 starts at the 2000M for 2 x 3rds is a worry, as is the 0-0-0 from 3 runs at Caulfield. Yet to even place in 7 runs the Melbourne way of going too. Does seem to prefer some sting out of the ground and despite winning over 2400M as a 3YO his last 2 wins have both been over 1600M. Another who on best form would be a factor, but think he is better off over a mile in Sydney. No

6-BANCA MO SCR. Unfortunately died from a heart attack on Thursday morning. Condolences to the trainer, strapper and connections.

7-PRINCE CHERI is lightly raced with a good win strike rate and is coming along OK, without setting the world on fire. On pacer is a plus as can make his own luck, and wasn’t beaten far in the 2013 Metropolitan. Had a long lay off in 2014, with close to a year off the scene. 1st run back at Scone was good to lead after such a long break, but then tipped out again can’t be a positive sign. Was well in the market 1st up last start at MV, which was surprising, but showed little and reported lame after the race. Blinkers go on today. Likely to go forward here from an inside barrier, and maybe just watch the betting market after getting good support last start. Bit worried about a firm track here and a horse with issues from last start so prefer to see. No

8-SONNTAG is a genuine stayer who won the Group 1 QLD Derby as a 3YO. Had a light spring last year and then raced in all the top level Autumn races, and struggled, but found form when dropped back in class and stepped up in distance. Seems to be a real genuine staying type who needs time, distance and racing. 2nd up here and no support 1st up and wait till later for this one. No

9-LA AMISTAD is well bred and has great relations she can name drop and gets to wear the “I am Makybe Diva’s sister” t-shirt to the races. Hasn’t set the world on fire with her form, but she might be taking time to mature, and does seem to want big tracks and distance. 2nd up here and no support 1st up. Likely to drop well back here and wait till she has had a few runs in and gets to 2400M plus. No

10-CAFE SOCIETY sounds so very, very sophisticated. Lightly raced import in the Waterhouse stable whose overseas form isn’t as at a high level as some of those who come over. Had a stupid number of barrier trials leading into this preparation. Did nothing on a heavy track 1st up in Sydney, when was well in the market (again, who backs these horses? Isn’t it just like betting on Trackside?) and then showed speed but faded at Wyong. Should be fitter for the 2 runs in, but hard to have on form and another we want to wait and see some form in Australia before getting on. No

12-LIKE A CAROUSEL is a tough stayer when in form and can race handy or go back. Doesn’t win out of turn and had a famous campaign when kept running placings without winning. Only won 2 from 28 starts. Ran a great race to run 3rd in the Sydney Cup mid year. Takes a few runs to run into form, drawn an outside barrier here and didn’t do much last week. Backing up here but likely to need this run too. No

18 -ETHIOPIA (emerg) won his maiden in the AJC Derby in 2012, and hasn’t won another race since. Hasn’t shown any form for years now, and pulled up with a irregular heart beat last start. Wasn’t far off in some good races in Spring 2013, but hasn’t placed in last 16 starts now, or for the last 3 years. Training from the couch but he should have been retired long, long ago. No

Summary: Normally this is a tough, competitive contest as horses try to qualify for the Caulfield Cup. But normally there are at least some horses with form racing! This year we need to try and work out which duckling (those with a duck egg next to their name) is the best?

So in a field of 20:
- 1 last start winner
- 3 last start place getters
- 1 last start 4th
- 5 last start 8ths or 9ths
- 9 last start 0's

The only horses with any form are the emergencies!

The speed here should be even, there are a few who can race handy, but in a field of stayers warming up for spring not sure they will go that quickly. Probably 14-KAPOUR (wide) from an outside barrier moving across gradually, from 3-TAIYOO, 7-PRINCE CHERI, 16-GENUINE LAD (wide), and 20 -LORD DURANTE (emerg).

With not much form in this race suspect something at odds stepping up in distance is going to suddenly improve. Just be wary here of the ones who are suspect at the 2000M – think in a big field of stayers something will inevitably outstay them the last 50M.

We have to try and find some value in a big field, so going to put the 11-LET'S MAKE ADEAL on top. Been unlucky here a few times at Caulfield, she is better suited in these sort of races and forget last start when just dropped out the back from an outside barrier – she can improve rapidly. The
17 -THE UNITED STATES will be sure to get a lot of interest and looks hard to beat, and the 14-KAPOUR the other obvious fit, in form on pace pick. Suspect something at odds is going to pop up though, so not a race to have a serious bet in and will probably just go a wide quinella with these and a few roughies like the 16-GENUINE LAD, 3-TAIYOO, 19 -OUR VOODOO PRINCE

One to risk: 15-MAGNAPAL 1st W=$5.10
Roughie: 16-GENUINE LAD 3rd W=$25.90

The Key: Which Duck Egg is the best?

RESULTS: Well, the only last start winner in the field, the one we didn't like, 15-MAGNAPAL continues on his winning way against a field of ducklings. We did find the value roughie though 16-GENUINE LAD 3rd W=$25.90, who was really good coming from an outside barrier and racing on the speed and think he is worth following. Stack of good run on runs behind them, with horses looking for further ground, but let's wait till they actually get into a finish before getting too excited about them.


 
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