Turf Deli - Free Form Guides Melbourne Spring Racing Carnival

Passionate about the punt

about us race menu turf articles track guides subscribe
Turf Deli Free Form Guides and Tips - Moonee Valley 22/08/2015


MOONEE VALLEY: MOONEE VALLEY - 22nd Aug 2015
Track: SLOW (5) - Weather: CLOUDY - Rail: OUT 4M

Betting Portfolio ($50):
Track is currently rated a SLOW(5), but it is windy and clearing heading into the weekend with not much more rain coming so this track should be improving rapidly come race day. Assuming we are going to be looking more towards a GOOD(4), but keep a close eye on the track rating. Rail goes OUT 4M and generally the more they move the rail away from the TRUE position at MV the more chance it will favour on pacers. Think you will want to tend towards those racing on the speed today.

Not sure why they have started putting the staying races on as the last race of the day. They are normally not that interesting and not the best betting races. Punters want a solid 1200M to 1600M race with a good sized field to give some odds and variety as you chase an end of day get out.

Today is also Redemption Day with a whole stack of overseas imports either coming back from injury or with poor form trying to re-ignite their racing careers. Hello to you, COUNT OF LIMONADE, FOUNDRY, THE UNITED STATES and especially AT FIRST SIGHT, who we actually tipped to win the 2011 Melbourne Cup. Seems like just yesterday.

RESULTS: Track gets upgraded to a GOOD(4) and the track strongly favours on pacers. Most of the winners either lead or have an inside barrier and towards the later races they start to put the pressure on up front. Those swooping around the field have no chance and quickly die on their runs. We have a frustrating day on the punt, getting into most finishes, but just getting nabbed on the line.

BEST BET: Race 3: 9-ALBONETTI $8 WIN 4th W=$4.00
This one was a bit of a surprise packet last spring when she came across from Adelaide and ran some great races in some quality staying events. Had a solid break and fitter for the two runs back and both of them have been promising and she was making good ground late last start at Flemington. Lots of improvement to come, up in distance suits. Blinkers go on first time today is a positive sign as well and maybe that will see her settle a bit closer to the speed? She does normally drop back and there isnít much speed in this race, but she is at the bottom of the weights, on the up and most of these are going nowhere fast. Looks the one to beat at around $3.60 and happy to have a confident win bet on her.
RESULTS: Track is strongly favouring on pacers and it is well known that this one drops out last so was facing a task before they even jumped. Made a long hard run around them to finish 4th - still a pretty solid effort and would keep following her.

BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 4-EL GRECO $4 EW 4th W=$2.70
QUINELLA: Race 6: 4-EL GRECO#2,3,7 (SCR),9 x $4 = 100% 4th 4-EL GFECO W=$2.70 / X SCR = $1
This one has yet to miss a place in 5 career starts and showed a lot of promise mid year in his first campaign. Had a freshen up since then. He started to pay for his consistency as he got to the top of the weights, and was still in the finish most starts, but suspect the weight has having its toll. Suited under these weight conditions and would want to see him sitting handy from a good barrier in a race with not a huge amount of speed. Looks a safe each way bet at around $4.60, back each way and suspect he will be in the finish so also take quinellas with the likely leaders, the (2) and the (7), who are at good odds, and the best of the back markers the (3) and (9).
RESULTS: Starts far too short and winner leads all the way in this race. Just seemed to struggle to keep up with the pressure and needed to go forward to be a chance given the racing pattern.

BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 6-IL CAVALLO $5 EW 3rd W=$8.30, P=$2.60 = $13
The feature race is pretty tough with lots of chances, and sure to be a keen betting race. The safest way to go though might be with the one we know is race fit and in form, who will go forward and sit just on speed around the MV 1000M, and think that means he will be in the finish. Probably better if the track just holds a little give. Seems to have been largely forgotten in the betting with lots of fresh horses being spruiked so think he represents a nice each way bet at around $11.
RESULTS: Gets in the perfect spot but also gets caught up in a furious pace and was dropping out on the line - so was very lucky to hold onto 3rd.

BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 11-LETMEDOWNGENTLY $4 EW 3rd W=$11.30, P=$3.10 = $12.40
QUINELLA: Race 8: 11-LETMEDOWNGENTLY, 2-KENJORWOOD x $2 3rd 11-LETMEDOWNGENTLY W=$12.40, 4th 2-KENJORWOOD W=$3.00
This is a bit of a tricky race with the overseas horses seeking redemption, so hard to know if they will step up or bomb out. However, small field, lots and lots of drop back horses and think the way to go is with the race fit on speed ones. This one may be under rated, lightly raced with an excellent win strike rate mainly from running in weaker country Victoria and SA races. However, when stepped up in class last 3 runs she has really excelled, winning here, placing in the Terang Cup and then was really good 1st up at Flemington last start when leading and sticking on. May be one on the up, and likely to go forward here in a race where a lot of them are under a cloud and cause a bit of an upset at around $10. Quite keen on this one each way today and take the quinella with the main danger the (2).
RESULTS: Super effort by this one, and she was right in the finish till the last 50M. Unfortunately these two put the pressure on each other a long way out and it was set it up for something running on late, but 11-LETMEDOWNGENTLY did really well to stick on. Keep following her she is lightly raced and should go onto better things this spring.

BEST ROUGH: Race 2: 2-LEVERACTION $2.50 EW 2nd W=$8.40, P=$2.40 = $6
Tough on pacer who can be hard to run down in his day, and did win here at odds last October. Last two runs have been pretty good, led here 2 starts back on a day when the rails were really, seriously off and then showed a bit of a kick at Sandown last start when leading - and it is pretty darn hard to lead all the way down the Sandown straight. If the track is favouring on pacers and he can get to the lead without too much trouble he may prove hard to run down today. Slight concern is a few other leaders in this race, the (6) and the (8) so wouldnít mind some fortuitous scratchings to increase the confidence levels. But worth a little something each way at around $13.
RESULTS: Starts a bit shorter than we would have liked, but perfectly ridden to the lead and only just headed in the last 20M. Excellent ride by the winner who put the pressure on 2-LEVERACTION a fair way from home which bought him unstuck at the end of the race.

LAY OF THE DAY: Race 3: 5-SHENZHOU STEEDS at around $4.40 1st W=$6.50
This one finally won another race last start Ė his first win in over 3 years after showing a lot of early staying promise. Best form is on wet tracks and think this track will be drying out nicely and stats at the track and distance are pretty ordinary. The new stable may have worked him out and he can probably go forward here with not much pressure up front, but would prefer to take him on considering his inconsistent form as second favourite at around $4.40
RESULTS: The Lay of the Day gets up and stings us - on protest. Which is so totally unfair!

TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet.
QUINELLA: Race 5: 1,2,6,7,12 boxed x $5 = 50% 1st 6-CHURCHILL DANCER W=$6.80, 3rd 2-SOLSAY W=$21.20, 4th 12-JUST FOR STARTERS W=$20.40
Amazingly, we managed to turn $5 into $3.50 with this bet last week, but happy to give another 5 horse box quinella a try. This is one of the more open races of the day and the 7-VALIANT WARRIOR was excellent here last start and clear top pick, but there are plenty of chances at double figure odds like the 12-JUST FOR STARTERS and the 1-MIGHTY LIKE so will be some value in the quinella if they get into the finish.
RESULTS: Like the rest of our bets today we were all over this and looking at a nice collect till the last 20M when our runners just got nabbed for 2nd.

SPENT:$50
RETURN: $32.40
NET:$-17.60


The Tips:

Race 1: 1-STRYKUM, 5-CATCH A FIRE, 3-JUST ONE MOMENT
Race 2: 2-LEVERACTION, 5-SO DOES HE, 9-STRONG HAND
Race 3: 9-ALBONETTI, 8-TRY FOUR, 7-PRIZUM
Race 4: 2-TAWTEEN, 1-PRECIOUS GEM, 10-COBBLESTONES
Race 5: 7-VALIANT WARRIOR, 12-JUST FOR STARTERS, 1-MIGHTY LIKE
Race 6: 4-EL GRECO, 2-GOLD BUSKER, 9-VICIOUS
Race 7: 6-IL CAVALLO, 1-GREGERS, 8-TANSY
Race 8: 11-LETMEDOWNGENTLY, 2-KENJORWOOD, 12-VOLONTIERS
Race 9: 4-KAREEMING, 3-AT FIRST SIGHT, 13-CUBAN FIGHTER

RACE 1: RESULTS
Tips:
1-STRYKUM 1st W=$3.40
5-CATCH A FIRE
3-JUST ONE MOMENT 2nd W=$2.80

Quinella: $3.50

RACE 2: RESULTS
Tips:
2-LEVERACTION 2nd W=$8.40
5-SO DOES HE
9-STRONG HAND 1st W=$2.80

Quinella: $13.00

RACE 3: RESULTS
Tips:
9-ALBONETTI
8-TRY FOUR
7-PRIZUM 3rd W=$5.20

RACE 4: RESULTS
Tips:
2-TAWTEEN 1st W=$2.80
1-PRECIOUS GEM
10-COBBLESTONES

RACE 5: RESULTS
Tips:
7-VALIANT WARRIOR
12-JUST FOR STARTERS
1-MIGHTY LIKE

RACE 6: RESULTS
Tips:
4-EL GRECO
2-GOLD BUSKER
9-VICIOUS

RACE 7: RESULTS
Tips:
6-IL CAVALLO 2nd W=$8.30
1-GREGERS
8-TANSY

RACE 8: RESULTS
Tips:
11-LETMEDOWNGENTLY 3rd W=$11.30
2-KENJORWOOD
12-VOLONTIERS

RACE 9: RESULTS
Tips:
4-KAREEMING 2nd W=$6.40
3-AT FIRST SIGHT
13-CUBAN FIGHTER





RACE 7: CARLYON STAKES 1000M LISTED
Tips:
6-IL CAVALLO 3rd W=$8.30
1-GREGERS
8-TANSY

Others: 3,2,11

Pace: EVEN
Leaders: 6-IL CAVALLO, 11-SWEET EMILY, 13-SHE'S ELLIE
Handy: 1-GREGERS, 2-LE BONSIR, 4 -MR MAKE BELIEVE, 9- JUST MAGICAL, 10-BEACH FRONT
Back: 3-ECLAIR CHOICE, 5-OUR NKWAZI , 7-FAST CASH, 8-TANSY, 12-KLISHINA

Chances:
1-GREGERS is a classy sprinting mare who looks well suited against this lot under this weight scale. Excellent MV form Ė 3 wins, 2 placings from 6 starts and won 2 from 3 this track and distance. Excellent fresh form too. She ran 2nd here 1st up last time in. Struggled for form a little towards the end of last spring but really not far away in all of her Autumn runs this year, including a narrow Group 1 defeat. She tends to sit handy these days rather than go to the lead, but like that she has drawn the (11) here and can sit on speed and in clear running over the 1000M dash. Looks the one to beat on weights and class against these. Go well.

2-LE BONSIR is a super consistent sprinter when right and 3 times winners at MV. Despite putting in some good performance on wet tracks his form line does say he is better on top of the ground and would want this track to be improving towards a GOOD(4) (which looks likely). The 1000M is the query here, surprisingly has never even had a start over the distance. Being drawn out in space is a big plus, as think he might settle a bit off the speed, and want clear running into the straight. Often gets stuck at the top of the weights too, so this weight scale suits. Has been 2 years now since his last win which is a bit of a concern, but does look suited in this race. Chance, and elevate if the track driest out. 1st W=$8.80

3-ECLAIR CHOICE is an Adelaide visitor and the stable has had a lot of success with the …clair horses and bringing them to Melbourne. Shame the MV racing club has missed a great opportunity of free ťclairs for all patrons if this one wins. Lightly raced with excellent win strike rate and only missed the place twice in 12 starts. Was placed 10 starts in a row, and right in the finish in most races before finding the wet track and Group 2 class a bit too much last start. Winner here at MV. 1st up, but won recent barrier trial easily beating some very good horses. Does race on speed normally, but did drop back in the run last few and that would be a bit of a worry if he did that today from barrier 2 around the MV 1000M.Blinkers first time today is important Ė and might fire him up to go forward. Just keep an eye on this one in the betting. Fresh, if he jumps and leads from the barrier he probably wins this, dropping back would need some luck in the run. Chance.

6-IL CAVALLO is a talented sprinter on his day and form lines point towards 1000M and wet tracks being his go. Just held off the (8) at Flemington 2 starts back, and they did go hard in front here last start and he did get left exposed for the two running on late who nabbed him on the line (just). Drawn well and will go forward here and be in the running, and if they donít go fast in front again he is going to be hard to beat again today. Like the odds on offer about him and he is the best of the race fit on speed horses and will be in the right place at the right time to win this. Strong chance. 3rd W=$8.30

8-TANSY has been racing really well recently. Really liked the way he chased hard against the (6) last start at Flemington and was gradually wearing him down on the line and solid run again last start when was chasing hard and one just got a kick on him. Really liked both his last two runs and he is probably the horse we want to back today on form. Concern is a drop back sprinter though, who does seem to take a while to wind up, around the tight MV 1000M circuit from an inside barrier. Likely to drop back and will need an awful lot of luck. Would be great if they could get him to jump and settle handy? Think he is going really well though, so if the luck comes, he should just about win. Strong chance.

11-SWEET EMILY has a impressive win strike rate and has won 3 from 6 here and 5 from 13 at the distance. Firmer track is very important to her chances and the wet track was blamed for a poor showing here last start. Normally burns along in the lead and that is what you want over the MV 1000M with the rail out, and there actually isnít a huge amount of pressure up front here for a 1000M race. Just keep an eye on her, she has drawn the inside barrier, she can jump and run and if there were genuine excuses for last start then she is probably a rough chance here. Rough.

Place:
5-OUR NKWAZI is one we have a bit of time for and he often goes around at good odds, but the trick with him is he likes MV, on a wet track and on a track that favours those running on late. Not sure if this track is going to dry out too much for him, and not sure if the racing pattern will suit runners on today. Excellent 1000M record. Recent form has been really good, he was noticeable poking up on the inside at Flemington and then finished with a fantastic finishing burst from well back to win here last start. Drawn out is a plus as will drop back and want clear running room. Is racing really well, just suspect he might give too much of a head start to one racing on the speed today, but solid place chance. Likely to go around at good odds again too. Place.

10-BEACH FRONT has a lot of ticks for this track and distance, placed 9 from 11 at MV is a pretty impressive record, and placed 5 from 7 this track and distance. Would definitely want the track to head towards the firmer side. Didnít do much 1st up at Sandown and was a noticeable drifter in the betting, but also note that was on a slow track, which might not have suited. Will settle midfield and wide here in clear running and likely to start pretty long odds, but given her excellent MV form she is probably worth a value place chance for a big trifecta. Place.

Sacking:
4 -MR MAKE BELIEVE hasnít shown his best form for quite some time now, and hasnít won a race for over 2 years. Best form in early career was as a front running mudlark. He tends to mix up his racing pattern these days, sometimes going forward and sometimes dropping back so hard to know where he will settle today. You would think probably going forward from the barrier. Last run here was actually pretty good, but he is extremely badly weighted against those horses coming into this race with no apprentice claim today. Canít have on form.

7-FAST CASH does have a fair bit of ability, but probably hasnít lived up to some of his early runs when he looked liked he was going to be pretty darn good (particularly his 2nd behind RICH ENUFF here on this day last year). 1st up today and won 1st up here back in Jan over the 1200M. May be better as a sprinter, and form did taper off towards the end of last preparation. Likely to drop well back here over the 1000M and just think he might need a fair bit of luck to catch those he is giving a head start to. Will finish on, but suspect he will find one better and happy to risk him today. Prefer to risk.

9- JUST MAGICAL is lightly raced and 1st up here. Speedy type who does have a good record at this track and at this distance. Had a barrier trial to get him ready for this too. Should settle midfield from the barrier. This race has actually come up fairly strong this year and not sure his form is good enough against these. Passing. 2nd W=$38.80

12-KLISHINA has been racing OK recently without actually doing anything to get excited about. Ran on really well in a Group 3 race at Caulfield 3 starts back, and wasnít too far off them last week. Best form is over the 1000M too. Drawn out probably drops back here and finding it a bit hard to get enthused about the form. No 4th W=$25.00

13-SHE'S ELLIE doesnít win out of turn and is coming into this off a freshen up, and last few runs in weaker company are hard to get excited about. Did win fresh at the start of last campaign, and is often not far away here at MV, but donít think form is good enough for this. Main interest is that she will add to the speed up front if she goes forward, but think she is safely held in this. No.

Summary: Found this a bit of a tricky race to line up, but the key here is going to be the weight scale and as always around the MV 1000M, running in clear room as there isnít any time to wait for a run.

Speed here looks genuine, but not overly fast, 11-SWEET EMILY, 13-SHE'S ELLIE likely to go forward here with the race fit 6-IL CAVALLO sitting just off them, then back to 1-GREGERS, 2-LE BONSIR sitting wide.

Actually think there are quite a few winning chances here and found it hard to separate the three main chances, the 1-GREGERS, the 3-ECLAIR CHOICE and the 6-IL CAVALLO and suspect this is going to be a very keen betting race. Going to put the 6-IL CAVALLO on top here though as think he represents value at around $11, and he will be the one sitting just off the speed and in the perfect position to win the race. The classy 1-GREGERS is the main danger sitting on speed out wide, but she does look a little short on the odds on offer, but is extremely well weighted in this. The one we would really like to back though is the 8-TANSY who we think is going really well and has tried extremely hard the last 2 runs, but have a lot of concern about the inside barrier and dropping back (which is a shame, else he would have been clear top pick). The 3-ECLAIR CHOICE the other danger, watch the market and a lot will depend if he jumps and goes forward here 1st up. But safest way to go is probably the 6-IL CAVALLO each way and in quinellas.

One to risk: 7-FAST CASH #RED X W=$9.70
Roughie: 11-SWEET EMILY

The Key: 1000M MV, get a clear run around the bend.

RESULTS: This is always such a tricky race and they always go really fast, especially today with a leaders track. The favourite the 1-GREGERS next to no chance caught wide from an outside barrier with the leaders winning. Good run from the 3-ECLAIR CHOICE who lost all chance when he dropped back in the field.
 
Home -  Form Guides -  Articles -  Subscribe  -  Unsubscribe
Disclaimer & Copyright © TurfDeli 2010 -  Last Update Friday, 16 November 2018