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Turf Deli Free Form Guides and Tips - Derby Day 2015
FLEMINGTON: DERBY DAY - 31st Oct 2015
Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: STORMS - Rail: TRUE
Betting Portfolio ($100):
It is a bit tricky trying to work out what the weather is going to do heading into the weekend. It has been bone dry in Melbourne for weeks and it is worth nothing that both Caulfield Cup day and Cox Plate day favoured those racing on the speed (Cox Plate day ridiculously so). So if the weather stays fine and we get a good firm track suspect that you will find the racing pattern tends towards on pacers again. However, there are thunder storms forecast and it is unclear how severe they are going to be and when they will come through so keep a very close eye on the weather.

We are going to assume that we will stay on a fairly firm track for most of the day, with maybe a bit of wind and rain later in the day, but not enough to effect the track in any great way. It has been so dry in Melbourne for ages we would really need a pretty sustained storm to change the track rating significantly (queue the dark clouds and torrential rain). If the strong winds and storms do come through the racing pattern will probably switch to favour those with cover and running on late.

This is always a great day to have a bet. We have been following these horses all spring, so you can line them up and bet with confidence. So doubling up in the Betting Portfolio to $100. Although there are plenty of well supported favourites in these races just remember that these fields have a lot of depth, so think it is best to back a few runners in each race and spread your money around. We are going to do something a bit different this week and back a few runners in some of these races.

RESULTS: We punt rain, hail or shine. Thunderstorms and heavy rain in the morning - and a perfect sunny afternoon! Track gets downgraded to a SLOW(5) and there is a super fast lane along the rails with most winners leading. We managed to just do enough on the tips for Day One of a long, long week.

BEST BET: Race 1: 3-BASSETT $14 WIN 3rd W=$3.40
TRIFECTA: Race 1: 3 / 7,10 / 4,5,7,9,10 x $3 = 37.50% 3rd 3-BASSETT W=$3.40 / X / X
TRIFECTA: Race 1: 3 / 4,5,7,9,10 / 7,10 x $3 = 37.50% 3rd 3-BASSETT W=$3.40 / X / X
Best bet of the day is in the first race, which either means a great kick off, or a flashing red siren that it all goes downhill from here. This one is very lightly raced and attempted a near impossible feat, to step up, 2nd up from 1100M to 1600M in the Caulfield Guineas – and he did pretty well too to run 6th. He has beaten some pretty good horses in his wins too, so his form holds up. Should sit right on the speed here and put himself into the race at the right time, and his 1st up win was very professional. Back straight out at around $3.30, and maybe be a little wary he doesn’t get much shorter than that as the first favourite of the day with lots of keen Cup week punters. Let’s also try and kick a little extra into the collect and take a small trifecta, standing out the (3) to win, and rotating the value place chances the 10-FLYING LIGHT, 7-HE’S OUR ROKKII through the placings.
RESULTS: Gets the perfect sit on the lead and looked like this was going to be a great kick off to the week. But the jockey seems to be overly worried about him running out the 1600M and decides to cuddle him instead of just going for home. But the time he gets going again they have gone past him - really poor ride.

BEST WIN: Race 5: 3-EXCESS KNOWLEDGE $15 WIN 1st W=$4.00 = 15 x 4 = $60
BEST WIN: Race 5: 7-RULING DYNASTY $5 WIN X
This one has been racing really well the last two starts and has come out and chased hard and was only beaten by one that looks pretty smart last start at Caulfield. Finally showing some good staying form and living up to his potential. Solid staying type and the extra 100M and the bigger Flemington track should suit. Looks the main winning chance at around $6, but let’s also save on a win bet on the main danger, the (7) who is a Cummings horses trying to get into the Cup and looks to be showing staying promise on the way up. Odds around $5.50 but might start shorter on the tote with the stable name.
RESULTS: Gets very well backed so is a bit shorter than we had hoped for and really makes hard work of it. Hard run out wide, only just gets the photo - and then we need to survive a protest as well! All for a $4 winner - that's tough going.

BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 8- GET THE PICTURE $5 EW X
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 1- LIZARD ISLAND $4 EW X
We are pretty keen to back our top two picks in the feature race, and we are actually going to back both of them each way. Finding it hard to split them, so let’s back both. We think the favourite the (7), although a great winning chance is way under the odds and that means we get tasty double figure odds about horses who are racing well and have the right form lines to win this race. The (8) has been really good his last 2 starts, going wide and early at MV, and coming home late at Caulfield, and the trick here might be if Oliver can get him racing closer to the speed from a good barrier. The (1) has been super consistent all spring, will jump and sit handy and make his own luck and has beaten most of these home in his previous runs- but starts longer odds today. Happy to back both each way at around $11 and $10 respectively.
RESULTS: Furious speed set in this race and both of these were gone on the home turn.

BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 3-MAY’S DREAM $5 EW 4th W=$13.40
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 4-MISS ROSE DE LAGO $4 EW X
Here is another race where we are struggling to split two runners we like, but they are both at double figure odds so we can back both of them. The (3) is fitter for the 3 runs in, and was unlucky not to win here 2 starts back when she didn’t get the clearest run, and then had to go forward early at MV against her normal racing pattern when she was only just beaten. She is a solid dry track, 1600M Flemington horse running on if the racing pattern suits and looks very well suited here. The (4) is a little beauty, she keeps stepping up in class and racing well and was not far behind most of these 1st up here 2 starts back before leading all the way and giving nothing else a chance at Caulfield. There isn’t much speed here again and she has drawn inside, so if she jumps and runs and the leaders are sticking on she is going to be very hard to beat – don’t underestimate her. Backing both of these each way at around $13 and $10 and keen to bet.
RESULTS: The (3) looks to be comfortably holding onto 3rd till one flies out the ground to knock her out. Forget the run of the (4) she knocked herself in the barrier before hand and probably shouldn't have run and ran well below best.

BEST ROUGH: Race 2: 9-BANNATYNE $3 EW X
This one was really good last start when she was supposed to be ridden quieter, but rushed forward from an outside barrier and ran along in the front, and gave a kick on the home turn before fading. She had been stepping up in her classes OK before that and seems to have a bit more scope than a few of the drop back staying types here. Listen out for riding tactics, but can’t see why they wouldn’t just go forward again, and the key will be to try and get her to settle instead of tear along in front. There doesn’t seem to be a lot of speed in this race so if she box seats on the speed and the leaders are sticking on early in the day think she will probably do something at tasty odds of around $21.
RESULTS: Gets caught wide going forward again and does nothing.

BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 10-ECUADOR $3 EW X
This is a bit of a messy race most years, lots of well beaten Cox Plate runners backing up again for a consolation prize (albeit a million dollar Group 1), a few doing warm up laps for the Melbourne Cup and a few racing well and stepping up in class. One thing that often happens though – is the leader wins this race. This one is almost certainly going to lead and his effort in the Epsom was good, beaten only by the eventual super impressive Cox Plate winner. The 2000M here is probably a slight distance query, but elevate his chances if those on pace are sticking on well today and definitely worth a little something at around $26.
RESULTS: We picked the wrong leader! A horse leads all the way to win the Mackinnon - yet again - but not the one we tipped.

QUINELLA: Race 9: 12-BRING ME THE MAID, 5-UNDER THE LOUVRE x $2.50 X
QUINELLA: Race 9: 12-BRING ME THE MAID, 9-ÉCLAIR CHOICE x $2.50 X, 1st 9-ÉCLAIR CHOICE  W=$14.60
QUINELLA: Race 9: 12-BRING ME THE MAID, 13-COUNTRYMAN x $1 X
QUINELLA: Race 9: 12-BRING ME THE MAID, 14-KAPERNICK (scr) x $1 $1
The last race is a bit tricky to line up at the moment because we don’t know what the racing pattern will be, or how much rain and storms are going to come through. But one thing that sticks out is that there isn’t much speed in this race at all for a sprint race and a lot of the favoured runners are drop back horses drawn inside barriers which could make things tough (including our top pick 5-UNDER THE LOUVRE). Safest way to go might be with quinellas around the (12), who has a bit of ability but has mixed her form sometimes, but she raced really well 1st up and has straight track form, no weight here and should run along to the front from an inside barrier if they decide to go forward. Any rain is a bonus for her –and any quinellas in the last race – a huge bonus for us. Stand her out in quinellas with the main dangers the (5) and the (9), and maybe a roughie the (13) and the consistent (14). Her odds are around $9, but the quinella should pay $20+ in a pretty even field.
RESULTS: Ridden more quietly then she should have been - especially on the leaders track and our value 3rd pick runs to the lead and wins at nice odds.

LAY OF THE DAY: Race 2: 4-AMBIENCE at around $4.40 1st W=$4.30
We are really struggling to find a Lay of the Day this week (we always want it to be something under $5), so let’s pick on this one again just because we laid her at short odds last start and it worked. She is racing OK and will get a good sit on the speed here, but just got the feeling she got outstayed last start and same scenario as last race we suspect something at odds probably suddenly improves in this so prefer to back a few roughies.
RESULTS: Never looks like getting beaten. Oops. Not the best way to start Cup Week.

TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet.
RUNNING DOUBLE: Races 7,8: 1,8 / 2,3,4,13,14 x $5 = 50% X / 3rd 14-AZKADELLIA W=$10.90
We have gone for two double figure runners in the feature race the Derby so there is going to be plenty of value in the running double – especially seeing we also like some runners at double figure odds in the Myer Classic. So if we get the Derby right and the short priced favourite gets beaten there is likely to be a pretty nice running double dividend into a wide open 2nd leg with lots of value chances – we have already backed the (3) and the (4) (so we are doubling up on bets a little), but also give chances to the 14-AZKADELLIA, 13-SLIGHTLY SWEET and the 2-SOLICIT at odds.
RESULTS: Never get warm in either leg.

SPENT: $100
RETURN: $61
NET: $-39


The Tips:

Race 1: 3-BASSETT, 10-FLYING LIGHT, 7-HE’S OUR ROKKII
Race 2: 9-BANNATYNE, 1-MY POPPETTE, 11-RITZY
Race 3: 3-DISPOSITION, 7-CHARMED HARMONY, 2-MESSENE
Race 4: 1-EXOSPHERE, 11-HELLBENT, 8-SEBRING SUN
Race 5: 3-EXCESS KNOWLEDGE, 7-RULING DYNASTY, 9-THUNDER LADY
Race 6: 13-STRATUM STAR, 10-ECUADOR, 9-MAGIC HURRICANE
Race 7: 8- GET THE PICTURE, 1- LIZARD ISLAND, 7- TARZINO
Race 8: 3-MAY’S DREAM, 4-MISS ROSE DE LAGO, 14-AZKADELLIA
Race 9: 5-UNDER THE LOUVRE, 12-BRING ME THE MAID, 9-ÉCLAIR CHOICE


RACE 1: RESULTS
Tips:
3-BASSETT 3rd W=$3.40
10-FLYING LIGHT
7-HE’S OUR ROKKII

RACE 2: RESULTS
Tips:
9-BANNATYNE
1-MY POPPETTE
11-RITZY

RACE 3: RESULTS
Tips:
3-DISPOSITION 1st W=$2.80
7-CHARMED HARMONY
2-MESSENE

RACE 4: RESULTS
Tips:
1-EXOSPHERE
11-HELLBENT
8-SEBRING SUN

RACE 5: RESULTS
Tips:
3-EXCESS KNOWLEDGE 1st W=$4.00
7-RULING DYNASTY
9-THUNDER LADY

RACE 6: RESULTS
Tips:
13-STRATUM STAR
10-ECUADOR
9-MAGIC HURRICANE SCR

RACE 7: RESULTS
Tips:
8- GET THE PICTURE
1- LIZARD ISLAND
7- TARZINO 1st W=$2.90

RACE 8: RESULTS
Tips:
3-MAY’S DREAM
4-MISS ROSE DE LAGO
14-AZKADELLIA 3rd W=$10.90

RACE 9: RESULTS
Tips:
5-UNDER THE LOUVRE
12-BRING ME THE MAID
9-ÉCLAIR CHOICE 1st W=$14.60



RACE 7: VRC DERBY 2500M GROUP 1 3YO C+G
Tips:
8- GET THE PICTURE
1- LIZARD ISLAND
7- TARZINO 1st W=$2.90

Others: 9, 2,5

Pace: SOLID
Leaders: 2- SHARDS, 4- AYERS ROCK, 10- JADEER
Handy: 1- LIZARD ISLAND, 3- KIA ORA KOUTOU, 8- GET THE PICTURE, 11- PALACE TYCOON
Back: 5- MAN OF CHOICE, 6- EXTRA CHOICE, 7- TARZINO, 9- ETYMOLOGY, 12- SCADDEN'S RUN, 13- PAY UP BRO, 14- COLONEL CUSTER, 15- RED ALTO, 16- IRON BOSS, 17- BULLISH STOCK (emerg)

Chances:
1- LIZARD ISLAND is a super consistent type who has been doing everything right this spring. He has only missed the place once now in 8 career starts and has been competitive in everything he has contested. He has had the 6 runs in this preparation, which is quite a long spring for a Derby runner, but he seems to be holding his form pretty well. Tough rolling type who likes to sit on the speed and roll along and he should be perfectly suited here from barrier 3 to go forward and make his own luck, whilst all the staying types allow him a big head start. Run in the Caulfield Guineas was excellent as he was making ground along the inside which was not the place to be that day. In the Caulfield Classic he worked a little bit early, but got the perfect run and hit the lead early in the straight, but did appear to be fading on the line. Guess he has beaten home many of these the last two starts though – and he is going to start longer odds than most of them. First three home from the Caulfield Classic and MV Vase are always the way to go here. He just seems a really honest, reliable type, and if the track is suiting on pacers he is right in this. Really he should be in the finish, and will probably look the winner half way down the straight, the question might just be if something comes out and out stays him over the last little bit. Tough, fit, in form, on speed – and double figure odds. Strong chance.

2- SHARDS is a Sydney 3YO who ran them along in the MV Vase and almost pinched the race, really kicking clear on the home turn and scooting away from them. Guess the track was strongly favouring on pacers that day, but still, it was a really good performance and the right form for this race. Consistent form throughout career in Sydney and he is one that can go forward and make his own luck, and think that is always a big plus in a big field of stayers. In form jockey on board who is flying at the moment, and he is particularly good in staying events. Drawn out a little, and there is a few that can go forward here, so there will be more pressure up front here. Has to go in as a winning chance based on the last run which was excellent. Chance.

7- TARZINO is the favourite for this race and probably deservedly so, but reckon he is way under the odds and represents no value at all. He is a real solid staying type who will drop back, but will run out the 2500M and has looked all spring like he just wants the long straight and the 2500M here. If the rain and wind comes and the racing pattern favours those running on, his chances go up again. Solid tempo here should suit. Really solid staying win at Caulfield when he stormed home down the middle of the track and then was doing his best form late in the Caulfield Guineas when he didn’t get clear running room for the last 200M or so and was finishing off his race really well. Run in the MV Vase was excellent, it was a dynamite leader’s track and nothing made ground out wide all day, but he came wide and ran on well. Place getter in the right race, looking for more distance, unlucky last 2 runs, awful lot to like about him and he is a great chance in this. The one thing we don’t like – his odds. They are ridiculous! He has finished 7th and 3rd his last two starts – and he is going around at about $2.50 here? He would be those odds if he had WON his last two starts impressively. Suspect he is going to drift come race day. Strong chance – and he goes in the tips, but not interested in the odds on offer which look shocking value. 1st W=$2.90

8- GET THE PICTURE has been progressing really well this spring and looks a live chance in this race. Only missed the place once in his 5 career starts – and that was a strong finishing 4th last start at Caulfield. Still in his first preparation, but seems to be handling each step up in class and distance really well. Run in the Stutt States was excellent, it was a strong leader’s track that night (at MV? Never!) and he had to make a very hard run wide on the turn and stuck on well. Dropped out to last at Caulfield, and the track was favouring those on speed again that day and he ran home really well for a close up 4th. Normally you want a place getter in your lead up run in this race but guess you can cheat with him and take out the filly from the last start and he qualifies for that condition. Really liked the last run and think he is right in the finish here. Question mark might be how far he drops back, but he has drawn a fantastic barrier and Oliver goes on board and he knows how to win this race. If they position him up handy think he is going to burst through in the straight here and might pinch this. Just seems to be perfectly set to win this. Strong chance.

9- ETYMOLOGY is another who has been making the right noises (i.e. back me, back me, back me) in the right lead up races so has to be considered in this. Another who has only missed the place once in 5 careers starts. Ran on really well 2nd up at Caulfield behind the (7), was fair enough at Flemington in a race where the two on speed fought out the finish and was strong at Caulfield winding up late to run 3rd. Another who appears to be a solid staying type looking for a genuinely run Flemington 2500M. Actually don’t think there is that much between him and the favourite the (7) here – except that he is 5 times the odds! He does look like he will drop well back in the run so might be giving most of these a head start. But really nothing wrong with his form here and goes in as a good wining chance. Chance. 2nd W=$12.90

Place:
3- KIA ORA KOUTOU is a total unknown and represents a new form line to this bunch, all of whom have been racing against each other all spring. Unbeaten in four starts in WA and coming across to take on a Derby here. Not sure who the last VRC Derby winner was that kicked off their preparation at Pinjarra? Not a very traditional form line to say the least. He has been winning easily, but it has been in very small fields – he has only competed against 4 to 6 runners in all his races, and today he comes up against a full field of 16 – and he has drawn the inside barrier. He should be able to sit pretty handy here too. Have to watch the market on this one and see how much support he gets, but in reality they all have to lose sometime* (*BLACK CAVIAR exception asterisk), and it is quite difficult to win a Derby in your first preparation. A hard firm track would probably suit. We can’t get overly enthused here, but guess he is in winning form so you need to pay attention to that. Place only. 3rd W=$5.90

5- MAN OF CHOICE is a Sydney visitor who has been racing well up there and importantly he has been placed in his lead up run – it is so important to have form leading into these feature races. He has been stepping up in distance each start and racing well, though guess he has been beaten a fair distance at most of his runs. Last run was really good, he was held up for runs for ages at the back of the field and had to take a very narrow gap and burst through and showed some dash. Liked the turn of foot he showed there and that can be important in this race. Outside barrier is a bit of a concern here as can see him dropping well back in the run – and think he looks the type best ridden with a sit and a dash. Probably not a winning chance, but represents a new form line and looks a good value place chance for those wanting a nice dividend. Place.

13- PAY UP BRO is a real slogging staying type who will want the wind and storms and a genuine tempo and a hard, tough battle to the finish – and it is not impossible that he may get just that. He has had a long hard tough preparation with 6 starts. Excellent run at Flemington when the on pacers dominated and he was an eye catcher working home late out wide. Then at Geelong he was very one paced and had to go very, very wide on the home turn, but was sticking on really well for 3rd. That was a pretty good run – and probably prefer him to the winner of that race. The distance and the space here should suit him. He is drawn wide though and you can see him dropping well back and giving most of this field a big head start – and he just grinds away, he doesn’t flash home. Actually thought he was a good rough chance in this – but the $13 seems way under the odds – would have thought more like $25 – he is coming off a 3rd, 4th and 7th – it is hardly impressive form lines. Prefer place.

Sacking:
4- AYERS ROCK is a tough front runner and it would be great to see D.Gauci pop up and win a feature race over the spring – he barely gets rides, let alone winning chances on feature days. He is a bit more seasoned than many of these, getting up to 2000M back in August and then having a freshen up and being set for this race. Win here 2 starts back was excellent when he led and was under pressure at the top of the straight, but fought back really strongly the length of the straight to hold off his rivals. Really tough win. Then he was probably a bit disappointing in the Caulfield Classic and the track was favouring on pacers that day. Hard to see him improving enough to beat home the 3-4 runners who finished in front of him last start. Drawn wide and likely to be the leader here so will have to work to cross and go forward. Looks held on form though. No

6- EXTRA CHOICE is the Geelong Classic winner and even though the winner of this race last year came through that race in general it has been a pretty bad form line for the Derby. Mainly because all of the better horses go through the Caulfield Classic or the MV Vase – and so the Geelong Classic horses are the next tier along. He wasn’t really competitive in the Guineas Prelude or the Guineas, but then the blinkers went on and he burst through the pack nicely at Geelong. Guess he has winning form going into this race which is important, but there have been plenty of more impressive winners come through that race that have not measured up here. Stable is in flying form and it may pay to follow Hayes this week. Drawn very wide too, so likely to be well back and giving most of these a really big start. We have to take him on today – just don’t think the Geelong Classic is the strongest lead up race, despite the winning form. No

10- JADEER has had a very solid staying preparation for this, with the 3 x 2000M runs so he will be suited if this turns into a really tough staying slog fest. Likes to go forward too, and there are quite a few possible leaders here, so it could turn into a very solid staying contest, particularly if the wind and storms have come through by this race. Presented at the right time in the Geelong Classic but found the (6) too good. Drawn a nice inside barrier and will go forward here – just suspect those on the speed are going to bring each other undone. Probably is a rough place chance racing on the speed and sticking on if you want to collect a big dividend, but suspect he will be safely held by one or more here. No.

11- PALACE TYCOON is coming through much weaker races than most of these, but guess he is a last start winner and represents a new form line, so maybe he is worth some thought. Won his last two starts over 2000M+, something none of his rivals have done. Another who has drawn well and can race handy so he should have every chance in the run. Just hard to see him going from a Seymour benchmark 64 to a Flemington feature Group 1. No

12- SCADDEN'S RUN is a drop back and run on type who has been struggling to get into the right races. Had 10 career starts and his win/place strike rate is vastly inferior to many of these. Was a real eye catching run to finish 3rd flashing home at MV 4 starts back, then made some good ground late at Flemington in an on pacer dominated race. Outclassed in the Caulfield Classic and meets many of those who beat him home there again today. Went back to open company at Sale and ran home really well again – but the track was favouring those running on late that day. Has a bit of ability and a nice barrier, but likely to drop well back here and doubt he can give these a big head start and reel them in. Might win a nice race sometime though so watch out for him. No

14- COLONEL CUSTER is an Adelaide visitor who has been rising very sharply in distance his last few runs, going 1300M/1800M/2200M, and is still in his first preparation. Adelaide form is solid and the Hill Smith Stakes is normally a pretty good form line. Had a lot of support in the Geelong Classic and was slowly away and struggled from there, but guess you could probably forgive the run. Normally races on speed but guess they will probably go back again from the wide barrier here. Hard to see him being a factor in this, especially if he drops back. No

15- RED ALTO is the rank outsider of the field, and probably deserves the title. Still a maiden and although maidens have won this race before, it ain’t easy to do. Had a very long preparation with 7 starts – and he is still in his first preparation too. Was racing mainly around the 1400M distance and it is a bit strange for him to suddenly jump up to the 2000M in his last 2 runs – and he hasn’t been competitive against many of these. Looks safely held. 4th W=$107.30

16- IRON BOSS hasn’t been competitive in many of his lead up runs against these. Sent out well supported at Flemington 2 starts back and wasn’t beaten too far, but seemed to have every chance. Then never a factor in the Caulfield Classic. Drawn a nice barrier and the blinkers do go on for the first time so guess that might make some difference but hard to see him being a factor here. No.

17- BULLISH STOCK (emerg) is going to go around a rank outsider here at about $100. Only in his first preparation and only had the 4 career starts. Nice win at Benalla when won by a distance and then didn’t get the clearest of runs in the Geelong Classic. Drawn wide and likely to drop well back. This race looks to have come a little too early for this one and unlikely to be a factor. No.

Summary: The very traditional VRC Derby and this is one race where the traditional form lines are all the rage. Look back over the last 20 years of winners. 9 were last start winners, and it is unusual this year in that the Caulfield Classic and MV Vase which are the normal traditional lead up races were both won by fillies – so the winners of those races don’t go around today. All twenty winners in the last twenty years finished in the first 3 in their lead up run – that is one astounding record! 16 of the winners have come through the Caulfield Classic or the MV Vase. This is one of the most traditional and most consistent form lines in racing, these horses have all run against each other this spring and most of them in the same races - and the results simply don’t change that much. You normally don’t have to look any further than the first 3 home in each of those races.

The speed here does look quite genuine and this could be a true staying contest with quite a few who can go forward. The 4- AYERS ROCK should cross and lead with the 2- SHARDS, 10- JADEER sitting up close and handy and the 1- LIZARD ISLAND getting the perfect trail on the rails behind them.

We are quite keen on one here, the 8- GET THE PICTURE who has been doing everything right in his lead up runs, seems to have a good turn of foot and crucially has drawn a good barrier here and we are hoping Oliver will ride him more forward and just behind the speed. The main issue – is that he finished 4th and not 3rd in his lead up run, which would break the 20 year run on last start place getters! But we are going to cheat and take out the filly from last start, and the Caulfield Classic has only been going the last few years and normally the fillies wouldn’t run in these lead up races. The 1- LIZARD ISLAND looks perfectly placed here, perfect on speed sit, will shoot through early in the straight and look the winner – just a matter if he gets outstayed, but has form in all the right races. The 7- TARZINO the obvious pick and strong chance, but really we think the odds on offer are just plain awful, and he will be giving many of these a big start in the straight. The 9- ETYMOLOGY the only other winning chance with the right form lines of a last start placing in the right races. Really keen on the top two picks here though, they are both at double figure odds and intend backing both of them to win with inflated odds on offer with the short priced favourite.

One to risk: 7-TARZINO (winning chance, but poor value) 1st W=$2.90
Roughie: 9-ETYMOLOGY 2nd W=$12.90

The Key: Last start form.

RESULTS: They really run along in front here which one cutting loose and setting a furious speed and most of these are finished well before the home turn. Huge staying performance by the 7- TARZINO who still looked poor odds based on his lead up form - it was all based on speculation, but he sure lived up to it, and never looked like getting beaten. Solid effort from the 2nd horse 9-ETYMOLOGY chasing hard .
 
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