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Turf Deli Free Form Guides and Tips - Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes 2015
MOONEE VALLEY: DATO TAN CHIN NAM STAKES - 5th Sept 2015
Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: CLOUDY - Rail: TRUE
Betting Portfolio ($50):
Weather looks clear, but cloudy heading into the weekend, with little rain forecast, so this track should remain relatively firm and be improving. Last meeting here the rail was OUT 4M and the racing pattern strongly favoured those racing on speed, but generally when the rail is TRUE at MV, as it is today, it tends to favour those running on late. Some big fields should ensure genuine speed in most races too. Every horse should have its chance today, but keep an eye out to see how the on pacers are going and if most of the races are being won by those swooping late.

Really interesting program here with lots of horses resuming and we start to put the picture together as to who is going to step up this spring. Seems to be a lot of quite even betting races too with plenty of chances so we should get a good mix of results and don’t be afraid to steer away from the favoured runners. In the sprint races with big fields the barrier is crucial, and look to those with nice middle barriers with clear room to make a run.

RESULTS: Awesome day on the tips and we were spot on in quite a few races, including finding some big value winners. Track favoured those running on in most races as expected. We have included the tips as originally posted below. However, please note, Race 4 THE UNITED STATES is number (4) not the incorrect number (3) as posted. However, it was a fortuitous typo for some Turf Deli punters who put the wrong number in and collected a percentage of the massive 9-12-3-6 Early Quaddie which paid $115,000 with the 3-CHANCE TO DANCE upsetting his stable mate in the 3rd leg. That is one very lucky typo!

BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 5-THE CLEANER $5 EW 1st W=$5.30, P=$1.70 = $35
Tough as, front runner who has an excellent record here at MV and is always hard to run down. 1st up effort at Caulfield was really good when jumped and led, got headed and fought back to nearly pinch it again on the line. Won this race last year, beating several of the same horses. Up against a short priced favourite here in the (4), but think we would prefer to back this one and that he is a genuine chance of beating the shortie in this. This also means we are going against our pin up horse the 3-MOURINHO - and that takes a bit of doing. Pretty keen he can win this, but to be safe we will go each way at around $6.50.
RESULTS: Spot on and we were quite confident here - even going against one of our favourite horses!

BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 2-LETMEDOWNGENTLY $5 EW X
QUINELLA: 2-LETMEDOWNGENTLY#6,9,12,14 x $4 X / 1st 9-BOOGIELICIOUS W=$40.50, 3rd 12-SPANISH LOVE W=$25.60
We are following this one this spring and think she might go places. Excellent win/place strike rate, mainly in much weaker grade, but is lightly raced and every time she steps up in class she is meeting the challenge. Should be fitter for the 2 runs in, both of which has been excellent, sticking on really well when leading at Flemington, and last start here where she led and was pressured a long way from home but was still leading in the last 50M. Drawn out, and there are a few other on pacers here, but she doesn’t have to lead and hopefully can sit just off them. Is at the top of the weights, but think she is one going places. Back each way at around $6.50 and in an open race there is going to be a lot of value in the quinella, we have found two roughies in the selections the 9-BOOGIELICIOUS, 12-SPANISH LOVE, and the other fit on pacers the (6) and (14).
RESULTS: The one we liked the 2-LETMEDOWNGENTLY was very disappointing, but wasn't the best ride - pushed forward from a wide barrier on a fast speed on a track favouring those running on...Forgive that run and keep following her. Which was a shame because we were all over the finish, finding the super roughie 1st 9-BOOGIELICIOUS W=$40.50 and 3rd 12-SPANISH LOVE W=$25.60 as the main dangers. The trifecta paid a whopping $6375 with the favourite running 2nd - we did the hard work - you fill in the rest!

BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 8-DON’T DOUBT MARLEY $5 EW X
Plenty of class fillies resuming in this race and there are plenty of winning chances, but most of them drop back in the run - so thinking we should look at something with a nice middle barrier that might settle not too far off them in a race without a huge amount of speed. This one was really good last start at Caulfield when got beaten for speed early but made a wide run and was finishing really hard. Extra 100M suits, won both starts before that and should settle more forward today. Race fit and in form so we know where she sits against plenty having their 1st up run. Each way at around $8.50
RESULTS: Not far off them and right in the finish but just outclassed by some pretty smart fillies.

BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 12-TANSY $3 EW X
We have been following this one the last few starts and happy to get on today despite the rise in class. Both runs at Flemington were excellent when chased hard late and just seemed to take a little while to wind up. Really wasn’t suited dropping back to the 1000M here with an inside barrier last start and did take a tight inside run towards the finish but faded. Much better suited here out to the 1200M and running in space with an outside barrier and some time to settle down and go for home. Think he is a great rough chance today in an open field outside the favourite at around $35.
RESULTS: Funny run, was wide and struggling around the home turn, but then switched back to the inside and ran really fast sectionals the last bit. Give this one another chance, but maybe away from Moonee Valley as think he needs a big track to stretch out and run on.

QUINELLA: Race 3: 3,11,12,13,18(scr) x $5 boxed = 50% 1st 12-BON ROCKET W=$11.40, 3rd 6-MASTER RESET W=$10.20
Big field and two of the favoured runners the (4) and the (9) have drawn inside barriers and think that might bring them undone if they drop back in the field. Which means there is plenty of value around the rest of them and good chance something at odds is going to pop up here. Box up the selections (12), (3), (18), (13), which includes some nice value runners, and throw in another roughie the (11) from a good barrier. Note that the (18) is 4th emergency so if he doesn’t get into the field put in number (6) instead.
RESULTS: Unlucky not to get a collect here, found the value winner on top and correctly took on the short priced favourite.

LAY OF THE DAY: Race 3: 4-STRONG HAND at around $3.20 11th W=$2.50
Happy to take this one on today, even though he has won his last four starts. Excellent ride won the race here last start when he was ridden forward to sit outside the leader and put the pressure on a long way out to just run down the front runner – but the tactics worked. Different jockey today, onto a firmer track, drawn an inside barrier and will get caught behind a lot of on pace runners here, and just think in a big field we are likely to get a value winner. Not sure how much improvement is left either as surely must being coming to end of first preparation? Happy to risk.
RESULTS: Took on the short priced favourite here - and never looked like winning, trapped inside and struggling to keep up a long way out. Easy lay of a very well fancied runner.

TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet.
$5 ALL UP:
PLACE Race 4: 11-PACIFIC HEIGHTS X
PLACE Race 6: 6-SOLSAY 4th W=$25.00
PLACE Race 7: 5-THE CLEANER 1st W=$5.30, P=$1.70
PLACE Race 9: 7-LORD DURANTE 2nd W=$5.80, P=$2.40
Will try a Poor Man’s Quaddie today – four placegetters instead of four winners. Let’s kick off with 11-PACIFIC HEIGHTS in Race 4 who is fitter for the 3 runs in, will get a perfect on speed sit here in a race with not much speed, down in weights and blinkers on. Cross your fingers and hope in the 2nd leg where we try and inject some value with the 6-SOLSAY at huge odds, who is up in class, but has placed 10 from 11 here at MV, fitter for the 3 runs in and gets a perfect middle barrier. The front running 5-THE CLEANER should be a pretty safe way to go in the feature race, which leaves us coming home on the 7-LORD DURANTE in the last who is race fit and racing well and think he is going to be better back on a dry track today. Might get outstayed, but in a field with little form or pace, think he should be in the finish somewhere rolling on the speed. Should be looking at a very healthy return pushing $500 if we manage to land this one.
RESULTS: Got really badly let down in the first leg when the 11-PACIFIC HEIGHTS ran up on the rails around the turn and looked like he was going to be in the finish for sure - but faded badly. The 6-SOLSAY only just got bobbed out of a photo for 3rd, and the last two runners were never not going to be in the finish, so wasn't too far off a collect here.

SPENT: $50
RETURN: $35
NET: $-15


The Tips:

Race 1: 1-DEL PIERO, 8-EUSTON ROAD, 6-VALTIMOR
Race 2: 2-LETMEDOWNGENTLY, 9-BOOGIELICIOUS, 12-SPANISH LOVE
Race 3: 12-BON ROCKET, 3-LEVERACTION, 18-COLLINS STREET (emerg), 13-RAZZLE DAZZLE ROCK
Race 4: 3-THE UNITED STATES, 13-BARON ARCHER, 11-PACIFIC HEIGHTS,
Race 5: 8-DON’T DOUBT MARLEY, 6-STAY WITH ME, 1-PASADENA GIRL
Race 6: 12-TANSY, 9-FELL SWOOP, 6-SOLSAY
Race 7: 5-THE CLEANER, 4-CONTRIBUTER, 3-MOURINHO
Race 8: 14-FURNACES, 1-CHAUTAUQUA, 4-KURO
Race 9: 7-LORD DURANTE, 3-IHTSAHYMN, 15-ALBONETTI (emerg), 10-SHENZHOU STEEDS



RACE 1: RESULTS
Tips:
1-DEL PIERO
8-EUSTON ROAD
6-VALTIMOR

RACE 2: RESULTS
Tips:
2-LETMEDOWNGENTLY
9-BOOGIELICIOUS 1st W=$40.50 **** LONG SHOT WINNER!! ***
12-SPANISH LOVE 3rd W=$25.60

RACE 3: RESULTS
Tips:
12-BON ROCKET 1st W=$11.40
3-LEVERACTION
13-RAZZLE DAZZLE ROCK

RACE 4: RESULTS
Tips:
3-THE UNITED STATES 2nd W=$4.20
13-BARON ARCHER
11-PACIFIC HEIGHTS

RACE 5: RESULTS
Tips:
8-DON’T DOUBT MARLEY
6-STAY WITH ME 1st W=$4.20
1-PASADENA GIRL 2nd W=$5.10

RACE 6: RESULTS
Tips:
12-TANSY
9-FELL SWOOP 1st W=$2.20
6-SOLSAY

RACE 7: RESULTS
Tips:
5-THE CLEANER 1st W=$5.30
4-CONTRIBUTER
3-MOURINHO

RACE 8: RESULTS
Tips:
14-FURNACES 3rd W=$4.80
1-CHAUTAUQUA 1st W=$2.70
4-KURO

RACE 9: RESULTS
Tips:
7-LORD DURANTE 2nd W=$5.80
3-IHTSAHYMN
15-ALBONETTI



RACE 7: DATO TAN CHIN NAM STAKES GROUP 2 WFA
Tips:
5-THE CLEANER 1st W=$5.30
4-CONTRIBUTER
3-MOURINHO

Others: 7

Pace: GENUINE – SET BY LEADER
Leaders: 5-THE CLEANER
Handy: 3-MOURINHO, 11-KENJORWOOD
Back: 1-FORETELLER, 2-ETHIOPIA. 4-CONTRIBUTER, 6-BANCA MO, 7-DIBAYANI, 8-BAGMAN, 9-BIG MEMORY, 10-GALLANTE, 12-NO TRICKS

Chances:
3-MOURINHO is one of our favourite horses and much under rated as a rolling on pacer. Keeps starting at good odds – and winning! Has an excellent MV record with 5 wins from 11 starts here. Good win 1st up when he box seated on the rails behind the leader the (5), and came out and looked to go straight past him – but that one fought back and really he was probably lucky to hold on, on the line. Meeting largely the same field here and beat most of these last start. 2nd up in this race last year he was coming on late to get beaten behind the (5). We have a lot of time for this one, but suspect 5-THE CLEANER might just be his nemesis – they have met 3 times so far, with the record 2-1 in THE CLEANER’s favour and really this one only just got the bob in last start at Caulfield. Main issue here is where they settle in the run. 3-MOURINHO often box seats on the rails and he does tend to scramble a bit in his action when going for a run, so needs some room and time to get out (see last start at Caulfield and again the run here last year in the JRA Cup where he has been held up for runs behind the (5)). Just looking at the barriers it looks like there is a pretty good chance that might happen again today. Would much prefer he was drawn out to sit outside runners and take his time to go after the leader. Still, in winning form, under rated, perfect on speed sit, will be hard to beat. Chance.

4-CONTRIBUTER is one of the best WFA horses going around at the moment and does stand out from the crowd a bit in a time where there aren’t that many high quality WFA horses around. Impressive win strike rate. Overseas horses who put the writing on the wall with a devastating 1st run in Australia win in the Coogny Stakes last spring. Unbeaten in Sydney Autumn campaign and probably still improving as he gets used to life Down Under. Deserves to be a clear favourite here in a race with not much depth. Given two warm up trials for this. Interesting to see where he settles in the run from the barrier (2), as he normally drops back a little so he might get stuck on the inside going for runs. 1st up, 1600M, 1st time at MV, and meeting some tough old campaigners so think he is maybe a touch under the odds, so don’t get sucked in taking silly odds - but he still looks the one to beat. Strong chance.

5-THE CLEANER is a super tough rolling on pacer who didn’t really have much punting love 1st up in the Lawrence and started at good odds - but jumped to the lead, got headed, fought back strongly and probably would have won again in a few strides – super tough effort. Leading and railing around MV he is incredibly hard to get past, and won this race last year. 4 times winner at MV, and 8 times over the 1600M. Found the pressure of the Cox Plate a bit too much last year, but still managed to stick on for 3rd in the Emirates at the top of the weights. Autumn campaign not quite as good – but still he was hardly far away. Was really impressed with the 1st up run and think leading, in the small field here, back to MV he can pinch this. Top pick. 1st W=$5.30

7-DIBAYANI is a highly rated Hong Kong horse racing now for the Hayes stable. Had support 1st up in the Lawrence when was a sound 3rd behind the (3) and the (5). Settled more forward that day but normal racing pattern is to drop back in the run. Loomed up nicely on the home turn 1st up and looked like he might run past them, but just seemed to die on this run – still he stuck it out to the line well. Should still have plenty of improvement to come – and maybe even enough improvement to beat the two here who finished in front of him last start. Stack of gear changes. Keep an eye on the market with this one as he might get backed. On natural improvement from the last run he has to be a chance here – and like that he is drawn middle so he can get a clear run at them. Chance. 3rd W=$8.50

Place:
1-FORETELLER is a proven WFA performer and has been around for years now – but still think he is rather under rated. Huge run to finish 5th beaten < 1 length in a high quality Cox Plate here last year. Strangely didn’t really come up over Autumn and the last campaign was below his best. Even effort 1st up when dropped back to last and had to go very wide to make his run and stuck on OK. He does normally take a few runs to run into form each time in, mainly because he tends to drop back and give them all such a big start over these shorter distances. But he did win the Maykbe Diva 2nd up in 2013 off a similar 1st up effort. Ran in this race last year against many of the same horse and was given no chance, dropped well back to last and stormed home late – but his 1st up run last year was much better. On his best form, and if the track is favouring those running on late he would be a chance of an upset here. Poor recent campaign is a concern, but he could surprise as the proven WFA horse in a field with not much depth. Rough.

8-BAGMAN is a super tough 9YO who loves a bit of distance and a tough grind to the finish. Won his last two and comes into this probably fitter than the rest of the field. Unbeaten in 2 starts here. Last 2 wins have been really good, last start here he was struggling coming to the home turn, but really responded late to hard riding, and the start before at Flemington he was ridden more forward to suit the racing pattern and really fought it out to the finish when challenged. Out to WFA company – but he has been lumping big weights in handicaps and still winning. Sitting out the back here he is probably the best rough chance in this race – race fit, in form and tough as. The races against 5-THE CLEANER normally turn into hard slogs and that might suit this one. Drop back in distance is the main concern - he has taken hard riding to get into the race last few runs and might get left a little too flat footed here. Rough. 2nd W=$21.20

11-KENJORWOOD is a pretty talented performer when right, but has been costly to punters a few times now at short odds (reference defeats as favourite W=$3.20, W=$2.70 and W=$1.75, 3 of last 4 starts…). Put together some smashing wins – and looking back over his form he hasn’t finished further back then 4th in his last 14 starts now – which is pretty impressive. He really should be able to step up to this level and be competitive. Been racing through most of winter. He has normally been ridden forward in his races, but just wonder if they might try riding him a bit quieter as he does seem to not quite finish his races off. Last start here he was probably a little disappointing – sat just off the leader and put the pressure on a fair way out – but he came unstuck – not the leader! Many of his wins have been when down in the weights too. Not quite sure about him – he does have a stack of ability, but just doesn’t seem to always show it. Place at best. 4th W=$12.60

Sacking:
2-ETHIOPIA was a boom 3YO who won the AJC Derby at only his 4th start and as a maiden – but that is still his only career win. He has been really struggling with injury for several years now and been having short, well spaced campaigns. Really has shown no form for some time now, and training from the couch we are a bit surprised he is still going around – thought he would have been retired by now. No.

6-BANCA MO is a handicapper stayer resuming for the spring and not suited at WFA here. Showed really good form in Winter 2013, including a 5 length win in the Warrnambool Cup and had a lot of potential but didn’t quite go on with it after having a long injury lay off. Was thereabouts in a few QLD staying races over winter. Amazingly placed 6 from 7 tries this distance. Probably better on wet ground and looks outclassed here 1st up at WFA. No

9-BIG MEMORY is a quality handicapper stayer who had a surprising amount of support 1st up at Caulfield and ran on well for 4th. Firm track suits. He is probably going to get stuck on the rails at the back of the field here from barrier (1). Better over more distance and find it hard to see him turning the tables on the three runners here who beat him home last start. Passing.

10-GALLANTE is a lightly raced Irish import who didn’t have much support at his 1st up run in Australia at Caulfield in April. Probably looking for more distance and a bigger track. Likely to drop back here. Stable struck form at the last MV meeting with their imports so do keep an eye on the market with this one, but prefer to see some Australian form before getting on. No

12-NO TRICKS is the youngest by far in the field of oldies – and the only female. 4YO mare who seemed to be set a task 1st up in the Lawrence, but actually wasn’t that far off them. NZ import who went OK during the QLD Winter campaign. Class here is still the test – and she is meeting 4 runners here who all beat her home last start, so hard to see her turning the tables on those. Passing.

Summary: This does look a pretty straight forward race with only a few winning chances. This is mainly going to come down to tactics here, and the trick is going to be NOT being the runner caught on the rails behind the 5-THE CLEANER, who invariably sticks close to the rails and is always hard to run down at MV.

The speed here is dominated by 5-THE CLEANER, who leads and probably 3-MOURINHO sitting behind him on the rails, and 11-KENJORWOOD outside them.

We are going to put the 5-THE CLEANER on top here, 1st up run was excellent and would have fought back and won again in another few metres. Leading here think he is going to be very hard to run down, especially with no pressure up front. 4-CONTRIBUTER the obvious one to beat and looks to be the class WFA horse on the rise, but is going to start pretty short and may get cluttered up for runs if they drop back from an inside barrier. 3-MOURINHO the other on speed chance, but would like to see him sitting outside runners, rather than on the fence behind the leader. Wouldn’t write off the chances of 7-DIBAYANI either who does seem over the odds with natural improvement. Whilst the favourite is definitely the one to beat think he is too short and will probably look at win bets around the other 3 chances.

One to risk: 9-BIG MEMORY SCR
Roughie: 8-BAGMAN 2nd W=$21.20

The Key: The MV 1600M – can you get past 5-THE CLEANER?

RESULTS: Totally spot on with the form preview here - finding the winner as clear top pick, questioning the short priced favourite and spotting the Best Roughie who got up for third. 5-THE CLEANER leads and runs away from them again. Forgive 3-MOURINHO - he got stuck on the rails which was EXACTLY where he didn't want to be. 7-DIBAYANI and 4-CONTRIBUTER just fair.

 
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