FLEMINGTON : Craiglee / Ascot Vale Stakes - 4th Sept 2004 Track: Slow - Weather: Fine - Rail: OUT 2M Betting Portfolio ($50): Big fields this week means the spring horses are coming back with a rush. Most of the races on the first ½ of the program have obvious standout picks and then a big drop to the rest of the field to fill the placings, the last few races are wide open. Be sure to be plenty of value in the multiples (especially trifectas) and recommendation is to go wider than normal as there are sure to be lots of long priced horses in the finish and big dividends. Bit of rain around this week, but probably only a few showers over the next couple of days , and weather is currently fine, so track should be on the better side of slow, maybe even getting to dead. Rail has been moved back in for the first time in a while so don’t be surprised if the on pacers are favoured especially in the first half of the program. Expect there to be not much between the inside / outside rail down the straight, probably tending towards the inside early on. Results : Best ground was down middle of the track. Doing something a little different this week with the bets. There are two standout bets today, being Race 4: 1-AMTRAK and Race 6: 10-ELVSTROEM. Both are probably going to start short though (< $3.00) and seeing they are both racing in big fields where anything could run a place we are going to have a shot at some multiple trifectas for big collects (wish us luck !) Trifecta : Race 4 : 1 / 4,5,6,7,9,10,16 / 4,5,6(scr),7(scr),9,10,16 = $21 $11 back for SCR Trifecta : Race 6 : 10 / 1,2,3,8,9,14,16 / 1,2,3,8,9,14,16(scr) = $21 $6 back for SCR Best Each Way: Race 9 : 11-ENCOSTA LEGEND $4 EW Spent : $50 Return : $17 Net : $-33 Results : Turf Deli manages to jinx both short priced favourites who both go down for narrow 2nds. In fact, if you look back through the form guides at the Best Bets, you will see they more often than not run 2nd. The seasoned punter knows the true meaning of Irony and laughs in its face - then turns and runs before he can catch up. Even more ironic - after trying all sorts of twists and turns and fancy stuff to get the Craiglee Stakes trifecta - we box it in our tips for a lousy $3 anyway ! The Tips: Race 1: 7-UNBATED, 6-SHARP AUNTY, 1-ALIZES Race 2: 2-SCHUMPETER, 6-FLAG RAISER, 7-RUN AND JUMP Race 3: 13-GRANMA GERTY, 7-LADY OF THE DESERT, 4-CHUT Race 4: 1-AMTRAK, 9-SURE BET, 5-GRUNDY’S CROSSING Race 5: 5-WILDLY, 7-ALINGHI , 4-ELTONJON Race 6: 10-ELVSTROEM, 3-HUGS DANCER, 14-ZAGALIA Race 7: 10-LADY SOPHIA, 18-LIGHTNING COMMAND (emerg), 7-CARLTON SPIRIT, 14-RED SILK Race 8: 5-PARACA, 12-LORD VOLKSRAAD, 18-VIA DE LAGO (emerg), 4-TRUE GLO Race 9 : 11-ENCOSTA LEGEND, 15-KORCULA, 7-CONFECTIONER RACE 1: RESULTS Tips: 7-UNBATED 1st W=$5.5 6-SHARP AUNTY 2nd W=$4.90 1-ALIZES SCR Quinella : $16.10 RACE 2: RESULTS Tips: 2-SCHUMPETER 1st W=$3.90 6-FLAG RAISER 7-RUN AND JUMP RACE 3: RESULTS Tips: 13-GRANMA GERTY 3rd W=$3.20 7-LADY OF THE DESERT 1st W=$3.20 4-CHUT 2nd W=$4.70 Quinella : $8.00 Trifecta : $35.30 RACE 4: RESULTS Tips: 1-AMTRAK 2nd W=$1.90 9-SURE BET 5-GRUNDY’S CROSSING RACE 5: RESULTS Tips: 5-WILDLY 7-ALINGHI 1st W=$1.90 4-ELTONJON RACE 6: RESULTS Tips: 10-ELVSTROEM 2nd W=$2.60 3-HUGS DANCER 1st W=$42.70 ********* LONG SHOT WINNER *********** 14-ZAGALIA 3rd W=$7.30 Quinella : $53.90 Trifecta : $891.70 ************* NICE VALUE TRIFECTA *************** RACE 7: RESULTS Tips: 10-LADY SOPHIA 18-LIGHTNING COMMAND 14-RED SILK RACE 8 RESULTS Tips: 5-PARACA 12-LORD VOLKSRAAD SCR 18-VIA DE LAGO 2nd W=$25.70 RACE 9 RESULTS Tips: 11-ENCOSTA LEGEND 15-KORCULA 7-CONFECTIONER 1st W=$3.40 RACE 5: ASCOT VALE STAKES 1200M GROUP 2 3YO Tips: 5-WILDLY 7-ALINGHI 1st W=$1.90 4-ELTONJON Others: 3, 1 Pace: Leaders :5-WILDLY Handy : 2-SANZIRO, 4-ELTONJON Back : 1-BARELY A MOMENT, 3-TIRADE, 6-ATAPI, 8-STAR SHIRAZ, 9-ONE WORLD Chances: 3-TIRADE put in a huge run 1st up on a dead set bog track, and was making good ground at the end of the race. 2nd up and up 200M here. Is likely to drift back and another who might not be suited if there is not enough pace, but another who has shown enough to be capable of winning this. Chance. 3rd W=$15.50 4-ELTONJON is a Sydney sider who has shown a fair bit of ability, but was showing a few very nasty habits. Potential that the switch in direction of racing is going to solve some of these problems, and he was super impressive in winning a recent barrier trial. Has the big plus over these of having had 3 runs this time in so has a big edge in race fitness. Does get back in the run and think if they pushed forward in this with very little pace would be very hard to beat indeed. Genuine chance. 5-WILDLY has been racing through winter and showing plenty of ability - only beaten the 0.5L at MV in only defeat. Absolutely bolted in last start at Caulfield and two horses behind him quinellaed good quality race soon after so form line is extremely strong. Question is whether he is just a wet tracker - but a genuine slow track today should be more than enough. Big plus for him is that he is race fit and there is no speed in this race at all, so he will get to dictate terms, hard against the rail which should be the best going. Worry is that he has to give 2.5kgs to a Group 1 winner in ALINGHI, but think he has an awful lot in his favour today. Very strong chance. 7-ALINGHI needs no introduction. Watched her last win from the old grandstand at Caulfield and when she revved up she was never going to beaten. Astounding performance. Could be an absolute freak. She is going to start very short in this and should win on her class - so she goes in the tips - but if she a good thing from a punting point of view? Probably not. One thing bothers us about the way she has been racing - she does tend to be tardy early and switch off - and has shown this trait in most of her runs since the Blue Diamond. Which is OK - she has shown with her amazing talent she can still win racing like this. BUT it means she needs to pull out an amazing performance every single start in order to win and is setting herself a challenge. Just get the feeling that one week (and will even say that if it does not happen today it will happen next start if she goes into open company), she will strike a track with an on pace bias that she cannot overcome, or give too much of a head start to a good horse that she cannot run down, or struggle to get a clear run till its too late. Small field today suits as means she will be able to get into the clear, and you would think the Flem 1200M will suit a strong finisher like herself. Class should see her through, so no surprise to see her win, just not going to be shocked if she gets beaten either. 1st W=$1.90 Place: 1-BARELY A MOMENT ran on very well 1st up, out wide and carrying weight. Yet to finish further back than 4th in 5 starts and improving track will probably suit him. Definitely going to be better as the races get longer, but would not write him off in this. Backmarker, who probably needs them to set a decent pace, which may not be the case. Rough chance. 2nd W=$16.70 2-SANZIRO started off last Autumn with a bang, then totally burst his bubble when the main races came around. Plus with him is that he has performed well down the straight before. Won barrier trial before today and that means he should be ready to show something here today. Capable of racing forward and there is not going to be much pace in this race, so he should put himself into the finish. Query is that he gave in pretty quickly once the races started to get a little longer last time in (although he might have been going off the boil) and whether he might just struggle to finish off a strong 1200M straight race 1st up. Rough chance. 9-ONE WORLD ran pretty well 1st up on a pretty wet track and firmer track here will suit. Strong finisher who has won before down the straight which is a big plus. Place chance. Sacking: 6-ATAPI has only fair NZ form and did nothing 1st up at Caulfield (and more importantly had no market support). Outclassed here. 8-STAR SHIRAZ is a QLD filly with solid winter form. Stepping into a pretty hot race here and another who gets back which is unlikely to help. Passing Summary: Always a great race, but not necessarily a great race to bet on as always lots of 3YOs on the improve and it can be a little difficult to line them up. Always a lot of buzz around the rising 3YOs (although this year 7-ALINGHI actually deserves the hype), but also means you can get upsets as the hyped runner starts under the odds. Set weights will favour those who have been carrying big weights in their lead up races. This race is normally split into two types of horses - the more speedy sprinter types who have been winning in the lead up races and the horses with bigger spring targets in mind that are still below their peak and looking for more ground. Generally, prefer to get on the on pace horses in this, and the run on horses will be starring in a few short weeks. Quite a few with enough ability in this to cause an upset, but the lack of pace in this race really does stick out. 5-WILDLY the only one who goes forward and there is a good chance he will be able to run this race to suit, and sprint for home making it hard for those running on. Just really a matter if he sprints and catches the favourite napping or not. Get the feeling 7-ALINGHI is going to start very short- especially on the tote (don’t be surprised if she comes up around $1.60 or under), and we are not keen on backing short priced favourites - especially not going into a race with lots of up and coming 3YOs who could suddenly improve without notice. She has the class to keep on winning, but we are approaching this from a punting point of view. 4-ELTONJON and 3-TIRADE both potential blow out chances. One to risk: 7-ALINGHI - if she starts under $1.80 she is poor value. 1st W=$1.90 Roughie: 3-TIRADE 3rd W=$15.50 Results : Well got that incredibly wrong. WILDLY flops badly and never in the race. ALINGHI settles this week and sits off them like the cat waiting to pounce, playing with her prey all the way to the finishing line. Great runs from BARELY A MOMENT and TIRADE who will be the ones to follow over further.

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