CAULFIELD : Thousand Guineas 2003 - 15th Oct 2003 Track: Good - Weather: Lovely - Rail: OUT 4M Betting Portfolio ($50): Pretty much used every ounce of our punting talent on Saturday’s blitz, so be prepared for a few hard dry weeks ahead. Thousand Guineas Day is always a great day to go to the races as it’s the one meeting over the Spring Carnival that has yet to suffer from population explosion and the regular punter can still wander around and enjoy some spring racing without the normal push and shove. Today can be a tricky meeting for a punt though - apart from the main race we are mainly looking at midweekers so it’s a bit hard to bet with confidence. There is just about always a distinct racing pattern on Thousand Guineas day - after a full days of racing last weekend the track starts to wear and generally you want to be on those finishing hard and late down the middle of the track. However, in previous years the rail has stayed in the same position from Sat to Weds - this year they have decided to move the rail out. Still think we should see runners on favoured, but just keep an eye on the pattern. BIG THANK YOU FOR ALL THE POSITIVE FEEDBACK AND CONGRATULATIONS FROM THE WEEKEND. Best Each Way: Race 7: 12-ACEE DEECEE $15 EW (this time for sure !!) 2nd (sht 1/2 hd) W=$11.00, P=$3.60 = 15 x 3.60 = $54 Quinella : Race 4 : 11,12,13,15 x $2 = $12 Best Rough : Race 5 12-TULLY BELLOTTO $4 EW Spent : $50 Return : $54 Net : $+4 Results : WOW. If only it was this easy every week - just sit back and watch winner after winner roll in. 6 races - 4 winners and 2 seconds from 6 top picks, 3 quinellas, capture the quaddie and just miss out by a short 1/2 head on tipping $1800 quaddie straight out (and almost made it a huge quaddie when long short ZOLIUS only just gets beaten) The Tips: Race 1: UNRACED 2YOS. TAKE A GUESS Race 2: UNRACED 2YOS. ENI MENI MINI MOE Race 3: 7-CHERUBIM, 2-MR SANDGROPER, 1-MR O’HARA Race 4: 13-TENANCIOUS SPIRIT, 11-CHANCELOT, 12-THE GALWAY ROVER Race 5: 2-SPECIAL HARMONY, 7-SANTISSIMA, 12-TULLY BELLOTTO Race 6: 1-SWEET CORN, 6-NANCY ELEANOR, 17-ZOLIUS(emerg), 16-TAFFETA MISS Race 7: 12-ACEE DEECEE, 7-MISS HELTERSKELTER, 6-GOLD CLASS Race 8: 5-DANCE ON WOOD, 3-BACKSTREET BOY, 17-GALADRIEL(emerg), 1-BOUNTY BEAT RACE 3: RESULTS Tips: 7-CHERUBIM 1st W=$4.10 2-MR SANDGROPER 1-MR O’HARA 2nd W=$7.00 Quinella : $10.30 RACE 4: RESULTS Tips: 13-TENANCIOUS SPIRIT 1st W=$7.20 11-CHANCELOT 12-THE GALWAY ROVER RACE 5: RESULTS Tips: 2-SPECIAL HARMONY 1st W=$4.20 7-SANTISSIMA 12-TULLY BELLOTTO RACE 6: RESULTS Tips: 1-SWEET CORN 1st W=$3.70 **** 4 winners in a row !!! ****** 17-ZOLIUS(emerg) 2nd W=$16.00, P=$7.20 - beaten a nose 16-TAFFETA MISS Quinella : $63.50 RACE 7: RESULTS Tips: 12-ACEE DEECEE 2nd W=$11.00 - beaten a short 1/2 head from $1800 straight quaddie !!! 7-MISS HELTERSKELTER 6-GOLD CLASS 1st W=$4.50 Quinella : $23.80 Quadrella : $322.10 RACE 8: RESULTS Tips: 5-DANCE ON WOOD 2nd W=$5.50 3-BACKSTREET BOY 1-BOUNTY BEAT RACE 5: HUNDREDS N THOUSANDS GUINEAS. 1600M GROUP 1 3YOF Tips: 2-SPECIAL HARMONY 1st W=$4.20 7-SANTISSIMA 12-TULLY BELLOTTO Others: 3-UNEARTHLY, 1-SHAMEKHA , 11-PORTLAND DAMASK Pace: Leaders : 9-BAHAMIAN STAR Handy : 5-ASHENTI, 1-SHAMEKHA, 7-SANTISSIMA, 10-ANNIE LA VIE, 11-PORTLAND DAMASK Back : 2-SPECIAL HARMONY, 12-TULLY BELLOTTO, 3-UNEARTHLY, 4-HINTING, 6-SPURCENT, 8-CHARMVIEW, 13-RIOLAGO, 14-DIAMOND HAILEY Chances: 2-SPECIAL HARMONY is a very consistent honest type and they are exactly the ones you want to be betting on. Good run in Bill Stutt Stakes and then tough work man like effort to win Edward Manifold. Fit and in form and can’t do much better than that. Top chance.1st W=$4.20 3-UNEARTHLY won very impressively last start in Sydney and looks to be after the longer distances. Strong finishing type drawn out wide and should be coming home hard down the middle of the track which is what we want. Genuine chance. 5-ASHENTI is an ultra consistent type who is just about always in the finish. Plenty to like about last 2 runs - got too far back at Caulfield and came flying home, and then tended to over race when restrained sitting on the leader last start at Flemington and went hammer and tong with the (2) to the finish. Did tip (and back her) last 2 starts, so starting to sting a little and she has been up a long time (including a trip to Sydney). Very solid form and cannot leave out, but do get the feeling she is close to the end of her tether this time in and probably not much left in the tank after today. Also think the (2) probably has her measure. Chance with reservations and probably not going to be backing her today. 7-SANTISSIMA is another who ran on well last start and probably right at peak now with the 4 runs in. Well drawn and yet another chance is what is looking a very tough race. 12-TULLY BELLOTTO ran a super race 1st up, a flat race 2nd up (which is always allowed) and a very nice eye catching run 3rd up running on strongly. Looks to be the improver, looking for more ground, running on late and about to peak after 3 runs in. Exactly what we want in this race and in form jockey on board. Might need some give in the ground to show best though. Chance. Place: 1-SHAMEKHA started off spring with a boom and looked to have the world at her feet, before last start shock flop. Did get badly blocked for runs, got a nice corky on the leg, and no luck, but jockey did say he wasn’t sure she could have beaten the winner (3) even with a clear run. Question is whether she has reached her peak early on this preparation and she might be up against plenty here who have improvement in them. Not sure what to do with this one, if she displays her best form she should win this, and is probably going to get a cosy on pace sit with not much speed in this, but punter’s instinct is telling me something is not right. Rough 11-PORTLAND DAMASK is an honest grinding type who plugged on pretty well last start in a race where the winners flew from behind. Just held on start before that and does tend to do a few things wrong in her races - pulling and over racing - seems to still be learning what it is all about. Grinding type though and looks like the extra distance will suit. Not quite sure she is good enough to beat these, but plus with her is that she will race handy and there actually does not seem to be that much pace in this race - looks the value runner for trifectas. Rough Sacking: 4-HINTING has been going along nicely. Powerful finishing bursts to win at Flem and Caulf and then dropped a long way back and made some ground along the inside in the Edward Manifold. Meets all those who finished in front of here there on the same weight terms here and felt after getting a dream run saving ground along the inside she was entitled to get closer the them last start - they seemed to be pulling away from here over the concluding stages - get the impression the distance is a bit of a query. Passing. 2nd W=$13.00 6-SPURCENT made some ground last start in Syd. Racing consistently up there but has been beaten by both the (1) and the (3) last couple of runs and hard to see her turning the tables on them - especially seeing she has been up for a while so probably not much improvement left. Place at very best. 3rd W=$31.00 8-CHARMVIEW does not boast the best strike rate which is just about enough to put us off in a talented field. Did make some ground last start at Flem, but is meeting many of the same opponents who beat her easily last start, so hard to see her improving enough to beat ALL of them. Held by the better Syd 3YOF before that so cannot see her figuring in this. No 9-BAHAMIAN STAR lead and stuck on for a place at amazing odds last start. Always want to be on runners on in this anyway, even if she was any good - which she isn’t . No 10-ANNIE LA VIE is fitter for 4 runs in from a let up. Another who was well held last run - although form from Mornington race before that is starting to look darn impressive through Kempinsky and Noble Red. Looks outclassed in this. 13-RIOLAGO has had just the 3 runs. Fair effort last start at Sandown but looks out of her depth here. No 14-DIAMOND HAILEY is coming into this with a Last and a Last, so she should be due for a rapid improvement to at least 2nd last this week. No Summary: Like the Caulfield Guineas last weekend, stepping up to the 1600M can find a lot of these fillies out and generally want to be on those who are strong finishers and looking for more ground. Track is usually wearing out by this race and almost guarantee the winner will come home hard down the middle of the track. Often today is when the form starts to turn around - the fillies that have been winning the shorter races start to get found out and those who are being set for longer come to the fore. Found this a difficult race to line up - very much a Sydney vs Melbourne match race with 90% of these coming through the same lead up race in each city. Looking through the historical results interesting to note how many good value winners there are in this race, and also how many come from behind the place getters in the lead up races (e.g. 3rd , 4ths, etc). Despite harping on about back markers, have a feeling the pace in this is going to be pretty slow - 9-BAHAMIAN STAR leading and 5-ASHENTI, 1-SHAMEKHA, 11-PORTLAND DAMASK sitting on the speed. Going to stick with 2-SPECIAL HARMONY here - she is flying at the moment and even if the race is slowly run she has a very nice turn of foot to pinch this, 7-SANTISSIMA with improvement still to come our pick of the Sydney lot and 12-TULLY BELLOTTO as the value runner running on late with improvement and looking for the more ground. Tough race. One to risk: 4-HINTING 2nd W=$13.00 Roughie: 11-PORTLAND DAMASK Results : Winner is flying at the moment and very impressive win - probably no improvement left though and suspect something on the up might have her measure in the Oaks. Rest pretty ordinary.

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