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CAULFIELD : Caulfield Guineas - 11th Oct 2003
Track: DEAD - Weather: Clearing - Rail: OUT 1M

Betting Portfolio ($50):
Fair bit of rain forecast, although most of it has not come through yet. Track should be worse side of dead or worse (if the expected rain comes), so you might want to start looking at the wet form. Caulfield has had a bad reputation for leaders bias when the rail drops back to the TRUE position - rail out 1M as it was Dubai Cup day which did not really solve the problem - the racing was a bit more even, but generally the winners raced on pace or close to the fence. With a decent amount of rain though track should be cutting up coming to be later races on the day, evening out any bias.

Please note that the Thousand Guineas Form Guide will be out late Tues evening or early Weds morning.

Been a flat couple of weeks on the tipping front so here goes nothing. We have tipped quite a few value runners on top this week as apart from the main races we think the other races are wide open and there will be a fair share of long shot winners

Best Bet: Race 4: 4-DANTANA $20 WIN 2nd W=$4.40
Best Each Way: Race 6: 8-FACE VALUE $10 EW 2nd W=$17.30, P=$4.20
Best Rough : Race 6 : 10-CANNYOPRA $2.50 EW
Best Rough : Race 2 : 11-RED ZONE $2.50 EW

Spent : $50
Return : $42
Net : $-8

Results : SPOT ON with the track conditions. Leaders were favoured early with the usual front runners bias at Caulfield, and the winners started coming a couple off the fence come the later races. Got most of it back with the Betting Portfolio, so call it a draw - but check out the tips for the rest of the day....LONG SHOT WINNERS EVERYWHERE...

The Tips:

Race 1: 15-TRANSACT, 7-ABSOLUTE TRUTH, 9-OUR EDEN
Race 2: 9-CATCH ME MATE, 2-MARBINE, 10-KING’S ARCH
Race 3: 9-CROWN PRINCESS, 2-FRAGMENTATION, 8-SANSADEE
Race 4: 4-DANTANA, 1-YELL, 3-SUPER ELEGANT
Race 5: 1-GREY SONG, 4-VICKSBURG, 7-YAKAMA
Race 6: 8-FACE VALUE, 1-IN TOP SWING, 4-AMBULANCE
Race 7: 1-LONHRO, 8-PLATINUM SCISSORS, 3-DISTINCTLY SECRET
Race 8: 7-TRUE GLO, 8-AIN’T SEEN NOTHIN’, 17-YVONNE
Race 9: 10-UNGUARDED MOMENT, 6-INFINITE GRACE, 16-DREAM LEICA

RACE 1: RESULTS
Tips:
15-TRANSACT 2nd W=$13.10
7-ABSOLUTE TRUTH 4th - almost a longshot trifecta...
9-OUR EDEN 1st W=$18.40
Quinella : $121.80 ========= HUGE QUINELLA ============

RACE 2: RESULTS
Tips:
9-CATCH ME MATE
2-MARBINE
10-KING’S ARCH

RACE 3: RESULTS
Tips:
9-CROWN PRINCESS 1st W=$12.10 ======== NICE VALUE WINNER ON TOP ========
2-FRAGMENTATION
8-SANSADEE

RACE 4: RESULTS
Tips:
4-DANTANA 2nd W=$4.40
1-YELL
3-SUPER ELEGANT

RACE 5: RESULTS
Tips:
1-GREY SONG
4-VICKSBURG 3rd W=$5.60
7-YAKAMA 1st W=$9.80

RACE 6: RESULTS
Tips:
8-FACE VALUE 2nd W=$17.30
1-IN TOP SWING 1st W=$20.80
4-AMBULANCE
Quinella : $99.60 ========= VERY NICE STRAIGHT QUINELLA !!!! =========

RACE 7: RESULTS
Tips:
1-LONHRO 1st W=$1.50
8-PLATINUM SCISSORS
3-DISTINCTLY SECRET

RACE 8: RESULTS
Tips:
7-TRUE GLO
8-AIN’T SEEN NOTHIN’
17-YVONNE

RACE 9: RESULTS
Tips:
10-UNGUARDED MOMENT 2nd W=$8.70
6-INFINITE GRACE
16-DREAM LEICA 1st W=$17.30
Quinella : $81.70 ======= ANOTHER LONGSHOT WINNER AND LOVELY QUINELLA =======

RACE 6: CAULFIELD GUINEAS GROUP 1 1600M
Tips:
8-FACE VALUE 2nd W=$17.30
1-IN TOP SWING 1st W=$20.80
4-AMBULANCE

Quinella : $99.60 ========= VERY NICE STRAIGHT QUINELLA !!!! =========
Others: 3-EXCEED AND EXCEL , 10-CANNYOPRA

Pace:
Leaders : 3-EXCEED AND EXCEL
Handy : 5-SCAREDEE CAT, 6-LAGO DELIGHT, 13-HASNA, 9-STARDANE (NZ), 12-KEMPINSKY
Back : 1-IN TOP SWING, 2-KUSI, 4-AMBULANCE, 7-ELVSTROEM, 8-FACE VALUE, 10-CANNYOPRA, 11-PENITENTIARY

Chances:
1-IN TOP SWING ran on well in the Guineas Prelude on a track where back markers weren’t really getting into the finish. Very consistent type (placed 8 from 10) and strong finisher which is a big plus for the 3YO’s over the 1600M in the hard run race. Gets a very nice 3.5 kgs weight turnaround on the (7) too which is enough to turn around the margin. Genuine chance. 1st W=$20.80
3-EXCEED AND EXCEL blew them away in the Dubai Cup (and that stung cause we did make him the One To Risk). Did not get much pressure in front that day, but probably was going way too fast for anyone to get close anyway. The 1600M here today is the question mark, but only seriously good 3YOs win the Dubai Cup, and seriously good on pace 3YOs can win this race even if they are a bit of a query at the 1600M. Question is going to be whether there is much pressure applied early or whether he can jump and run and that’s the end of it - after showing his potential last start think they will be keen to stick a bit closer to him today. Regular jockey back on today, but Brown did a pretty darn good job last start. Reported to be a dubious starter because of a virus which just adds to the mystery. With that extra set back probably tending towards taking him on again as just think he will have to be on the very top of his game to win this. Chance, but not keen to get on.
4-AMBULANCE looks to be a star on the rise with flying from last finishes. Gets well back, so wants a genuine pace and the back markers to be figuring in the finishes. Just the 2 runs in from a break and up again 200M here today is a slight concern. Obviously has the talent to win this, just wonder though if coming into this with only 2 runs in he might loom up and just die on his run over the last 50M. Again an obvious chance, but not sure we want to take the odds that are on offer.
8-FACE VALUE has been building up nicely this campaign and looks ready to fire today. At peak now with 3 runs in and a run over the 1600M and the form from the Bill Stutt holds up well with Special Harmony winning last week. Strong finisher who made good ground last start, and was unlucky and eye catching run on in the Ascot Vale. No hype at all about this one and makes a lot of appeal as a great each way chance at some juicy odds. Strong chance.2nd W=$17.30
10-CANNYOPRA is a tough grinding type who always seems to lift just over the last 50M of a race when you think he is going nowhere. Very unlucky last start when had to stop and hook around runners to make a run - and he does need to make a long tough run at them. Class is the test, but should be at peak with 3 runs in and sure to be coming home hard. Genuine rough chance and the outsider to watch out for.

Place:
6-LAGO DELIGHT is a boom horse that has not lived up to the hype yet. Setbacks leading into Ascot Vale when only just beaten, and then effort in the Dubai Cup was pretty good when not beaten far and did draw a wide barrier. Today is D day and probably sets the pace if the favourite gets scratched so gets to dictate the race. Should look the winner at some stage in the straight - again just prefer to be on those finishing hard in this. Place
9-STARDANE (NZ) is over from NZ and ran a very fast time over the 1400M last start on a uncharacteristic Fast track in NZ. On pacer whose job will be made a lot easier if the favourite is SCR taking some of the pressure off up front. Generally we tend to pass on these NZ horses 1st time in AUS - more often than not they did not stack up (especially the last couple of years), but probably best to watch market and see what happens. Rough only.

Sacking:
2-KUSI won the Blue Diamond here simply by being next in line when the winner got disqualified. Runs this time in has just been even - not really enough to get us excited, but probably not enough to trash him either. Fitter for the 4 runs in and the run over the 1600M so should be at peak here today. Been beaten by many going around here in each of his last 3 runs so its hard to see him turning the tables on all of them today. No
5-SCAREDEE CAT started this campaign with a boom and upset winner in the Ascot Vale. On pacer who will go forward in this and even effort in the Dubai Cup. The 1600M here is probably going to be a real test for this one, and this is likely to be a fast run race, so think he will be stopping at the end. Passing.
7-ELVSTROEM is another youngster on the rise who scored a nice win last start when well backed (obviously the word was out). Did get a dream run last run and finished hard against rails which was the place to be - and not in this well at weights at all from last run - meets the (1) 3.5kgs worse off from that run. Backmaker on the way up, but just think he would need absolutely everything to go his way again to win this. Prefer to risk.
11-PENITENTIARY is another NZ visitor and nothing beaten him and the (9) last start. Breeding suggests the extra distance will suit and watch the market again - but assuming the other Nzer has the wraps on this one.
12-KEMPINSKY is facing a huge rise in class, even if he did beat a smart one on the way up last start. Just the 2 runs this time in - was beaten by a smart one 1st up and does look like he will get a good sit on the speed here - might sneak a place at odds, but sure to find one better in this field.3rd W=$32.70
13-HASNA is facing a tough assignment here - filly against the blokes. Above average on pacer who has been beaten by both the (3) and the (4) this time in. Previous winner over 1600M in the Autumn though so you would think she runs out the trip - just did not like the ease with which the others went past her last start - she seemed to stop and not convinced she can mix it over a tough 1600M. Passing.

Summary: Probably our favourite race of the year when all the boom 3YOs go head to head to see who really is the stand out. Not sure there is that much depth to this year’s field though. Generally, do prefer to be on a strong finisher over the 1600M as the extra distance does tend to find a lot of these out and often this race can be run at a frantic pace setting it up for the backmarkers. Obviously important to watch how the track is racing with the always looming danger of a leaders track - but you would think things would be evening out by this race anyway.

Pace here should be genuine - a lot is going to depend if the favourite 3-EXCEED AND EXCEL starts. If he does the pace will be fast as he will make them run along with 5-SCAREDEE CAT, 6-LAGO DELIGHT, 13-HASNA, 9-STARDANE (NZ) all likely to be close up on the speed. If he does not start you might find the pace is just as fast as one of these others tries to take advantage of there being no obvious leader.

Can find little question marks over both the favoured runners - 3-EXCEED AND EXCEL with a set back on trial at the 1600M and 4-AMBULANCE up in distance into what is always a very tough race. So going to go for some value here - 8-FACE VALUE and 1-IN TOP SWING are both strong finishing, race fit and in form and will put in their best - and prefer to put some money on them at nice odds rather than back the obvious pick 4-AMBULANCE. Roughie 10-CANNYOPRA a genuine chance.

One to risk: 7-ELVSTROEM
Roughie: 10-CANNYOPRA

Results : SUMMED UP THE RACE PERFECTLY and some very nice dividends about our two value runners once you ignored all the hype about the two favourites. Got to love the racing media hyping horses and leaving juicy odds for those who do the form !. KEMPINSKY heading for better things and ELVSTROEM very unlucky and is the one to follow out of this.
 
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