Turnbull Stakes Form Guide (06/10/2001)

Flemington 06/10/2001

Track: Slow (actually rating Dead)
Weather: Fine
Rail: Out 10M

Likely Racing Pattern: Dodgy. This meeting last year was marred by a shocking worn out track, and might find a similar scenario here. Raced here just last Monday and the rail was out 15M on a dead track, the outside rail was fastest (as always), but most winners were coming down the middle of track. Probably find with the rail in just a couple of meters and big fields that they are going to be coming off the fence again before the main races - which will give plenty of room for runners on. Assume outside rail is faster as usually is. Rating form on a slow track, maybe just better side of slow, but any showers (and there are some forecast for tomorrow) and the track will start cutting up pretty quickly.

Results : Fairly even racing - slightly towards on pacers early and easy to run on as day progressed. Outside rail fastest as usual.

Betting Tip: Huge day for value - extremely tough program and all races wide open. Back your judgement, chase those multiples, cause they will pay big time. Trifectas, running doubles, and those of you with NSW TAB accounts can hit the Pick 4 in all races with a Flexibet. If you manage to read all of this form guide, then you seriously need to look at getting a social life.

*** Note : By popular demand this week we are going to stick out heads out (or into the sand, whichever description you prefer), and start declaring Dud Bets again. Dud Bets are either poor value at the odds, or likely to get beaten (we are not saying they cannot run the place). Use them wisely - either follow our suggestions, or , take them as one out in your quaddies cause eventually we are going to get it very very wrong and the Dud Bet will stroll in.***

Quaddie Attack: Going to be a huge value quaddie here. Wide open fields and can't take them all - so have to bite the bullet and go narrow in the Turnbull - based on Sunline getting beaten. Stack of value in 1^st leg and just keep fingers crossed, 3^rd leg is just as tough, but stick your head out and go narrow, and come home as wide as possible on those drawn outside barriers down the straight.

Race 5 : 4, 9,12,14,18 (scr)   3rd 6 - Hot Beat W=$21.70
Race 6 : 4,7                               2nd 4 - Universal Prince W=$5.70
Race 7 : 2,15                             1st 2 - TIckle My W=$15.70,  3rd 15 - Calm Smyzter W=$3.00
Race 8 : 3,11,12,14,15,16      3rd 16 - Gold Class W=$3.10
= 4 x 2 x 2 x 6 = $48

Results : Ok...so we messed up leaving Sunline out - but very confident with the value winner in the 3rd leg.

Betting Portfolio ($100):
Wide open day, so we can go each way and spend a little extra

Best Each Way: Race 5 : No 9 Special Grange $10 EW
                               Race 7 : No 2 Tickle My $10 EW 1st W-$15.70, P=$4.30
                                                                                            = (10 x15.70 + 10x4.30) = $200
                               Race 9: No 9 Storm Edition $20 EW 2nd W=$11.90, P=$4.00
                                                                                            = (20 x4.00 ) = $80
Best Rough : Race 1 : No 7 National Chase $5EW  2nd W=$24.00, P=$5.40
                                                                                            = 5 x 5.40 = $27
                          Race 3 : No 8 Perliffic $5 EW

Spent : $100
Return : $307
Net : $+207

Results : Double up for the first time - and come away with the goodies..One very good value winner, and 2 very nice value each way bets that only just get beaten. Good work !!

_________________________________________________________________________
RACE 1: 1800M 3YO
Selections:
13 - Hillsgrove
11 - Foxborough
7 - National Chase W=$24.00, P=$5.40

Others: 8,9,2,14

Summary: Brief form -just those worth talking about. 3 year olds stepping up to the 1800M for the 1^st time spells danger, so just sit back and watch this for derby guide. Pace is good from 3 - Arlington Road, 4 - Saturday Fever, 7 - National Chase. Lots of up 'n' comers - especially the 11 - Foxborough and 13 - Hillsgrove and tending towards them with improvement. 7 - National Chase the roughie if it’s a slogging finish.

1- Grey Song absolutely flew home 1^st up and handles it wet - just 2^nd up, up 400M, topweight and with a month between runs not keen to get on here. Risking.
2 - Tarcoola Midnight : Had every chance last start, but all 4 runs have been full of merit. Drawn very wide here and does like to race handy, so that’s a negative. Just wonder how long he can stay up in his first preparation too. Paying the penalty having to give weight to lots of up and comers. Chance, with reservations.
3 - Arlington Road : 3^rd up. On pace win in small field last start, when got everything his own way. Has to give 1kgs to the (13) from last win. Drawn 1 and 1^st use of track should seem him in the finish, but guessing he will be run down. Chance.
4 - Saturday Fever : Run down at MV last start but the race was dominated by the runners on. Was beaten home by the (2) and meets him 1kgs worse off. Does look held on that basis.
5 - Mustaagel : Looked like going to be a real contender in the spring, but yet to really show up to the promise. Obviously wants distance and a dry track (which is not going to get here), and was safely held last start. Want him to do something more substantial before getting on.
6 - Sha Alma : Done nothing in 2 runs in. No
7 - National Chase : Well drawn. Good run last start when fought on very strongly after being headed. Does handle it wet and has the big plus of having the 1800M run when most of these are stepping up to the distance. Looks to be a little bit of pace here, but rough chance. W=$24.00, P=$5.40
8 - Tully Zeal : Well drawn. Disappointing when short priced fav last week (we did pot him). Previous 2 runs excellent and probably looking for distance. Guess we give him one more chance.
9 - Ashley Kate : Well drawn. Bit disappointing when well support and well beaten last start. Did come home well 1^st up and will be better for last run. Chance
10 - Belushi : Maiden who looks out of it here.
11 - Foxborough : Well drawn and this guy does have ability. Probably better on top of the ground and does get an extra 2kgs off the (2) from their last meeting here. Still improving and learning - can take a nice position here from good barrier. Go well.
12 - Gold Lottey : Never though staying was going to be her caper. 3^rd up and up 400M. Pinched break on short priced fav last start for good win. This is a bit tougher and distance the query. No 3rd W=$17.00
13 - Hillsgrove : Drawn out. Still learning, but really hitting straps. Very unlucky last start at MV when had to squeeze through narrow gap on home turn and was just winding up at the end. Will get well back, but big track and distance is going to suit. Go well.
14 - Manang : Drawn out. Finished off race full of running last week. 3 runs in have all been good and does handle it wet. Does meet the (8) a whopping 5.5 kgs worse and the (16) 5 kgs worse off from last run though, so not very well weighted here. Probably has a better turn of foot than most of these, so rough chance (weights are a bit off putting). 1st W=$9.70
15 - The Bax Factor : Maiden winner well held in town on previous runs. No
16 - Zarek : Maiden who has been up for a while and has had plenty of chances. Nup.
17 - Darehill : Well drawn Maiden, very outclassed here.

Results : Plenty of flops here = Arlington Road very disappointing, Tarcoola Midnight and Tully Zeal had enough. Follow up on Grey Song - needed the run up in distance after a break and come down the middle of the track where it was hard to make ground. We give a good push to roughie National Chase who almost grabs the bickies at juicy odds.

_________________________________________________________________________
RACE 2: Sports Stakes 1420M Listed 3YO C+G
Selections:
7 - Royal Code 1st W=$3.00
4 - Sir Chuckle SCR
8 - Pentathlon 3rd W=$7.70

Others : 1,5

Summary: Pace should just be OK with 4 - Sir Chuckle dictating as he likes, like last start, with 3-All Courage and 8-Pentathlon sitting handy. Should be easy to line these up and think the winner will come through the Sandown race - so just do the form and line up the weights. Putting 7 - Royal Code on top, even though he gets back, 4 - Sir Chuckle the one to run down and 8 - Pentathlon the unknown from Sydney. Keen to bet in value race where we are potting the likely favourite.

1 - Tully Dane : Blotted copybook last start, as 1^st 3 runs were excellent, Handles it wet and can race on speed, which is a big plus here over 1400M. Even effort in Guineas Prelude and this is obviously easier. Concern is this is his 1^st preparation and not sure how long he can stay up for. Probably has class over these, but also has the 58kgs. Chance, with reservations.
2 - Ustinov : 4^th up and fitter. Bit disappointing in Guineas Prelude when did strike some trouble, and does meet the (1) 3kgs worse off from that race when beaten home. Likely to get well back and this is weaker. Pretty unknown on wet ground. Runs each side of the Ascot Vale when he got the advantage of the outside rail has been ordinary. Ready to risk him here and look for value. 2nd W=$6.10
3 - All Courage : 2^nd up. Well drawn. Rising from a Sale Class 2, but good win at Caulf last autumn. Yet to strike wet ground, and would have to say up 200M 2^nd up and up in class would probably find him out. Rough
4 - Sir Chuckle : Leader. Good win last start when had his opposition covered easily. Does meet the (5) a whopping 5kgs worse off from last start, which just about accounts for the 3 length winning margin. Unknown on wet ground, but early race, small field, Flem 1400M you want to be on the on pacers so he is still the one to beat. SCR
5 - Mr Trickster : 2^nd up. Did have some support 1^st up, when got back, and does usually race a bit more forward. Well weighted here and expect improvement. Chance.
6 - Neiwand : 4^th up. Gets well back and shown nothing this time in - costly to follow during the Autumn and leaving alone till he finally wins one.
7 - Royal Code : Came home hard at Sandown against tear away leader. Gets a huge 4.5 kgs off the (4) here for a 2.75 length defeat which will even them out nicely. Wet track winner and does look like distance will suit. Go well. 1st W=$3.00
8 - Pentathlon : Hawkes runner with fair Sydney form. Got back last start and struck trouble, but usually sits close to the speed. Have to watch market to see how he lines up, but some chance. 3rd W=$7.70

Dud Bet : Ready to dud on the 2-Ustinov here. Probably going to start a well supported favourite, but wet track is a query, and not convinced of form this time in. Will get back over the Flem 1400M which is always tough. Prefer to take some odds about his opposition. 2nd W=$6.10

Results : We tip the winner and he looks like has has some ability. Ustinov starts a lot longer than we thought it would, but as predicted gets too far back and runs on when its too late.
_________________________________________________________________________
RACE 3: 2500M
Selections:
8 - Perliffic
5 - Manzeal
16-Maranello

Others: 2,14,9

Summary: Usually do not mind staying races - find them quite easy to line up. Like them to have had 2 x 2000M runs or a 2400M run before backing them at the 2500M so that leaves very few chances here. Pace here just OK - from 1-Casino Heights, 4-Yuppie, 11-Prince Standaan, 14-Etoile Polair. 1-Casino Heights has weight and barrier against him, 2 - Kreisler Mirage has the staying fitness, as does 4-Yuppie, but he is not a wet tracker, 3 - Touch The Groom will need the run up in distance, 5 - Manzeal is drawn out but has the greatest scop for improvement out of the Sydney horses. 8 - Perliffic did come home well last start, up in distance again so rough chance, 9 - Scrumptious is a horse on the way up, 12 - All Tanked Up needs it dry, 14-Etoile Polair has had plenty of chances, but rough chance on fitness and 16-Maranello is the one to watch, needs it wet, but very fit and been lumping big weights.

Results : Super fast run race. Follow up on 4-Maythehorsebewithu who will improve from the run.

_________________________________________________________________________
RACE 4: 1400M 4YO +
Selections:
9 - Defier 1st W=$5.00
5 - Lord Essex 2nd W=$5.80
14-Desert Eagle

Quinella : $9.70

Others: 7,11,

Summary: Flem 1400M again - preference towards on pacers.1 - Yammer and 2-Emission will still need the runs.3 -Scenic Peak put up a huge effort from an outside barrier in Eat Well Cup and fitter for 2 runs in, problem is has drawn outside again and unknown on wet ground - passing. 4 - Scenic Warrior has had way too many chances. 5 - Lord Essex is a good chance, good win strike rate, well drawn, handles wet and fitter for 2 runs in. Have to watch market on 6 - Play Station 1^st up. 7 - Matter of Honour should be able to lead easily here - 1^st 2 runs in were excellent then probably too short last start. 8 - Neptune's Journey was too disappointing last start. 9 - Defier is fitter for 2 runs in lightly raced and came home hard over the 1400M last time - strong chance. 10 - Kennett is drawn very wide and will get well back. 11 -Mr Gold Flyer looked the winner last start about 100M out then just did not finish it off - sting from ground will suit. 12 -As You Do will need the run as will 13 - Conference. 14-Desert Eagle is ready to do something after 2 runs in - will race handy from inside barrier. 15 - The Pumper is an unknown 1^st up, 16 -Inspire has not won since 100-1 win derby day last year, 17 - Kosta Zoff is good on his day and will improve here, but probably still needs the run based on 2 runs in so far.18 -Tears Royal is smart enough and on pacer, but probably aiming a little high here 2^nd up. 19 - Collins Street gets a mile back and needs them to go super fast.

Pace here is from 7-Matter of Honour, with 3-Scenic Peak crossing from outside barrier, a couple of other race handy, but pace will just be OK. Tending toward the 2 sydney siders on the way up - 9 - Defier and 5 - Lord Essex, dangers are 14-Desert Eagle 7 - Matter of Honour, 11 -Mr Gold Flyer,

Results : Another winner !! Even better a quinella !! Follow up on Yammer who came home well.

_________________________________________________________________________
RACE 5: Edward Manifold 1620 M Group 2 3YOF
Selections:
9 - Special Grange
14 - Liberty Rose
4 - Haste Ye Back
18 - Quays (emerg) SCR

Others: 12, 8, 2

Pace:
Leaders : 5 - Li Lo Lill
Handy : 1 - True Jewels, 4 - Haste Ye Back, 6 - Hot Beat, 8 - Vickers, 12 - Palias, 13 - Tully Thunder, 14 - Liberty Rose, 19 - Karla Keys
Back : 2 - Malagra Miss, 3 - Juanmo, 9 - Special Grange, 11 - Edging Out, 15 - Ugachaka, 16 - Magical Miss, 17 - Sha Alma

Chances:
2 - Malagra Miss : 2 runs in have been excellent. Drawn out, which is not too bad as she does get well back, but getting back is a big no no at the Flem 1400M. Gets a good weight drop here as well (1 =, 4: 1.5kgs, 6: 2.5kgs , 9: 2.5kgs ). Yet to miss a place here Again 3^rd up and up 200M means she might just die on her run at the end of the race. Rough.
4 - Haste Ye Back : Drawn out. Surprise winner last start, when did get perfect run and quickly sprinted away from them. All runs this time in have been even. Has to give 1: 1.5kgs, 2 : 1.5kgs but gets 1 kgs from 6,9, and was going away from them last start. Weights not really enough to turn around the margin from last time. Seems to be OK on wet ground. Will be a bit closer this time - perfect run meant the win did flatter a bit last time, and weights should even it out a little here, plus improvement from those that finished behind her, but she did have them nicely covered. Likes to go forward so maybe going to be caught out from wide barrier. Good chance, especially as meeting most of the same field here and many might treat last start as a fluke so she might go around at OK odds.
8 - Vickers : Solid filly who is always strong at the end of her races. Did get a bit further back than usual last time and did have to switch out to try and get a clear run. She can sit handy, and plus with her is she probably has a fitness edge on many of these going up to the 1600M, having had the 2 x 1400M runs this time in. Again, does meet all those in front of her from Caulf at same or worse weight terms. As long as track is not too wet, she is going to be a good chance at odds.
9 - Special Grange : Well drawn. Filly with ability who flew home late at Caulf when had to make a very wide run, after very soft MV win. No problem with the wet ground. She does get back (hope they ride her a bit more forward here), but another who might have a fitness edge at 1600M. Go well.
12 - Palias : Well drawn. Have to try and line up the Syd fillies against the Melb fillies here. Does seem to excel on wet tracks, and should be able to take a nice position here from a good barrier. Have to put in, just because she represents the new form line, and because she can get the perfect on pace run here. Chance
14 - Liberty Rose : Well drawn. 3^rd up and fitter. She represents a new form line here, and does look well suited here - with the 1600M run under her belt and well drawn to take on pace sit. Keep safe.
18 - Quays : Drawn out a little. Super impressive at 2 wins this time in, when has won under tight hold and probably not even at best on wet ground. Contested and competitive in top grade races during winter and she is the unknown here. Keep her safe if she gets the run. SCR

Place:
6 - Hot Beat : Well drawn. Fitter for 2 runs in, but up 200M again here. Ran on well last start when searching for a run and had to switch back to the inside. Meets all of those who finished in front of her on worse or same weight terms which means she is unlikely to beat them home here. Plus is she can handle it wet and can sit here on speed from OK barrier. Rough chance, but good one for trifectas. 3rd W=$21.70
16 - Magical Miss : Drawn way out. Flew home 1^st up in impressive performance, then could not run down leader at Ballarat when short price fav. Up 200M 3^rd up here and again rising to the 1600M could find her out against others who are one run ahead of her. Going to have to drop back from outside barrier as well. No surprise to see her running on into a place, but not a winning chance for us.

Sacking:
1 - True Jewels : Well drawn. Ultra consistent during autumn, but yet to show her best this time in. Suited by the set weights here, and gets good weight pull from many from last start (4 : 1.5kgs, 2: =, 6: 2.5kgs , 9: 2.5kgs). 3^rd up and up 200M means she could still need this run - she did seem to die on her run last time when she was right up there till about 100M out. Needs a firm track to show best. Just get the feeling she is one run behind most of these. Place chance at very best with weight pull.
3 - Juanmo : Well drawn. 3^rd up and up 200M. Winner of Group 1 1600M during winter, but really have to improve on 2 run this time in - although has nice weight drop, does seem well held by many who finished in front of her last time and going around again here. No
5 - Li Lo Lill : Drawn out. Done nothing in 2 runs in, and did give in quickly last start on fast speed. Does seem to like to go forward, which is going to be tough here from barrier. No 2nd W=$52.60
7 - Palidamah : Shocking draw. QLDer who has done nothing in 3 runs down here. No
10 - Franjelica : Shocking draw. Fitter for 3 runs in. Disappointing at Caulf, but run before that here was excellent. Not much between these though and hard to see how she could beat home all those that finished in front of her. Throw in as a rough place if the pace is on and she recaptures form from 2 starts ago.
11 - Edging Out : Well drawn. Fitter for 4 runs in. Ordinary effort last start against the males, but does handle wet ground. Does seem to be getting well back this preparation and that, and the opposition here should her safely held
13 - Tully Thunder : Well drawn. 4^th up. Done nothing so far and can't have.
15 - Ugachaka : Looks like the boom is finally off her. Just has not lived up to the expectations. Should be fitter for the 3 runs in and should be ready to show something here with more ground. Main problem is she just does not seem to like racing inside other horses - she was not that far off last time, but sure she did not want to take the run between horses. Problem is she has drawn 2 here again, so likely to be a repeat of last run and does meet all those in front of her on same or worse weight terms. Leaving out yet again. Would have put her in if she drew out a bit. 1st W=$4.50
17 - Sha Alma : 3^rd up. Tough draw (barrier 1) for a filly that will drop back - no clear run. Done nothing so far. No
19 - Karla Keys : SCR MV Thurs night for this, which is a bit ambitious. Does have the 1600M run under her belt and she can race handy, class here is the test, but place chance if she gets a run.

Dud Bet : 1 - True Jewels : Which is a bit of gamble, seeing she is probably the class horse here and does have the weight drop. But she was on pace last time and stopped horribly in the last 100M with plenty finishing over the top of there - just get the feeling she is going to need one more run, especially stepping up in distance.

Summary: Should be a great betting value race - just line them up from the Tranquil at Caulfield last start. Remember usually want to be on on pacer runners at Flem 1400M. Absolutely nothing between many of these, a lot will come down to luck in running and track conditions. Despite big field, actually do not see speed being all that fast, with 5 - Li Lo Lill trying to cross from outside barrier and 4 - Haste Ye Back (wide),12 - Palias, 14 - Liberty Rose racing on the speed. In a tough race look towards the safest options - on pacers, well drawn - err…..except we have gone for 9 - Special Grange who will get back, 14 - Liberty Rose the danger at odds with the on pace run, and 4 -Haste Ye Back - have to respect winning form in the lead up races. 18 - Quays (emerg) the one to follow later in the spring. Happy to just go the each way on 9 -Special Grange.

Results : Ooops....we missed that Ugachaka was in blinkers for the 1st time, which made a big difference when she does not like being inside horses. We dud True Jewels and she does very little. Good runs from Magical Miss and Tully Thunder to follow.

_________________________________________________________________________
RACE 6: Turnbull Stakes 2000M Group 2
Selections:
4 - Universal Prince 2nd W=$5.70
7 - Inaflury
13 - Rum

Others: 9,6,15

Pace:
Leaders : 6 - Sunline, 12 - Primrose Sands
Handy : 8 - Hit The Roof, 10 - Sir Clive
Back : 1 - Sky Heights, 2 - Freemason, 3 - Pasta Express, 4 - Universal Prince, 5 - Big Pat, 7 - Inaflury, 9 - Kaapstad Way, 11 - Sale of Century, 13 - Rum, 14 - Lolita Star, 15 - Tyrolean

Chances:
4 - Universal Prince : Done everything right so far this spring (except win a race that is…) Fitter for 3 runs in and continually threatening. Should get enough pace here to run on, and the 2000M and the big track will suit. Gets an 05.kg pull from Sky Heights, but has to give Kaapstad Way 2.5kgs from narrow margin last start. Probably best  on dry ground, but looks main chance here. 2nd W=$5.70
6 - Sunline : Drawn out, but sure to push forward to lead without much trouble. Got beaten in this race last year by Fairway, and no doubt the 2000M on big tracks with long straight are a question mark with her. Last year they got the scare after this race and put the extra work in to get her ready for the Cox Plate. This year they have already got the scare with her being beaten twice this time in, so the extra work will have already gone in. Obviously a better wet tracker than these, but she does seem more vulnerable this time in and can see her getting beaten here. Lack of pace here will suit as she can dictate - remember that Brave Chief and Desert Sky has set scorching pace in the lead up runs. Has not missed running a place in Australia in a very long time. Main chance, but not one we will be backing. 1st W=$2.00
7 - Inaflury : Moody mare who seems to be back to best. Well drawn here and record here is excellent as is wet track form. Should be enough pace here for her running on, and she is a good chance in this. Probably prefers dry tracks these days, but nothing wrong with wet track form. Big plus is that she has had the 2000M run, and the others have not. Strong chance.
9 - Kaapstad Way : 4^th up and fitter. Ran on well in this race last year. Wet tracks not really his go (hence the effort last year was so good). Is starting to get a bit costly to follow and getting a bit of a reputation of a non winner. However, he does get the best of the weights here on the set weights scale from the Underwood (Sky Heights +3kgs, Universal Prince +2.5kgs) Has drawn inside barrier which will not be a plus. We have to put him in as a chance, but does need track dead or better.
13 - Rum : 4^th up. 3 runs in have been excellent, but has a huge reputation as a non winner, only having won 1 from 17 so far. Has the big plus of having the 2000M run this time in and should be greatly improved for this. Sting out of ground suits, and does get 3 kgs off Sunline from Memsie. Put in as a rough chance flashing home.
15 - Tyrolean : Big rise in class here, but well suited under this weight scale. Been running on very well, and a little unlucky last start when had to try for a couple of different runs. Lightly raced and still on the improve. Had the 2000M run this time in is a plus. Meets Inaflury on same weight terms from Naturalism, so hard to see her turning the tables, even accounting for luck in running. Worth considering as a roughie though.

Place:
1 - Sky Heights : 4^th up here and does usually take a few runs to find best, and showed last start when flying home that he was ready to produce. Well drawn. Still a bit hit and miss, after mixed form last spring, and won easy races during the autumn. Want to see him perform once more just to know he is back to best. Sting out of ground definitely suits, as does the 2000M and Flem where he has an excellent record, but main problem here is the weights, he has to give weights (Universal Prince 0.5kgs, Kaapstad Way 3kgs) to many that have been beating him home in the lead up runs. Watching, but leaving him out today.

Sacking:
2 - Freemason : 4^th up and fitter. Wet OK, but no time at all for this guy. Hardly every wins and he is just kidding us. Last win - July 2000
3 - Pasta Express : Probably aiming a bit high here. 4^th up and fitter. 3 runs in have been very ordinary, and does need a dry track for very best. No
5 - Big Pat : Cups plodder whose last run was pretty good. Extra distance suits, but lacks to brilliance to figure here, especially under this weight scale and does prefer it dry.
8 - Hit The Roof : 3^rd up. Wet track here suits and just about ready to show something. Up 200M and one run behind most of these is the concern, probably just needs this to hit peak. Caught up in shuffling when Northerly shifted in last start. Barrier 1 means will sit handy, but also means will probably be in worse part of the track. Let him go around today.
10 - Sir Clive : Finally showed some form last time. Loves it wet, and maybe is racing a bit more dour this time in - looking for distance. Having said that, not at all convinced when well beaten last start that that represents form. Going to sit on pace. Passing
11 - Sale of Century : One of the usual cup suspects, running on in the perpetual good cup trial . Does get well back and really needs a super fast run race, which probably does not get here. Best on top of the ground too, so leaving out.
12 - Primrose Sands : 3^rd up and up 300M is a tough ask, especially with 4 weeks off since last run. Probably still yet to strike top form this time in, but huge effort last start when taking on in lead, facing breeze and 2^nd up and still clung on to dead heat. She is our current speculative pick (dependant on getting a start) for the Caulfield Cup. Will sit on speed here, which is probably not a plus having to go up against Sunline. She will win a good race this time in, but willing to let her go around today - but will be on next time. 3rd W=$16.80
14 - Lolita Star : Mare who is best on top of the ground. Good run 1^st up and could be heading back to form after disappointing autumn. 3^rd up here and up 200M suggests she still will need the run to strike best. No

Summary: Always a great race to bet on - mainly because the weights all turn around from the WFA races to the set special weights here, and most of these have been running against each other, so easy to line them up. Seems to be a very strong field this year. Pace should be OK, but not over fast with 6 - Sunline, 12 - Primrose Sands dictating from 8 - Hit The Roof and 10 - Sir Clive - Sunline should get an easy run here than previous runs where other on pacers set a fast pace. Probably going to get the best odds about 6-Sunline for quite some time ($3 ??) and think the bookies will let you get on. This race was her undoing last year, and ready to take her on again here (which is a big statement, cause we are pretty pro Sunline). Looking towards the runners on, with a track that will probably be cutting up. Theory that what distinguishes all those perpetual good cup runners on from genuine cup chances if that the genuine cup chances actually WIN a lead up race. So, its time for 4 - Universal Prince to show his best form in Melbourne, 7-Inaflury seems to be rejuvenated, 9 - Kaapstad Way is the one on weights (elevate if dry track), and 13 - Rum as the improver. Which means we have left Sunline out of the place, which is highly unlikely considering she has only missed the place 3 times in 38 starts - but pretty sure she gets beaten here and putting in the dangers, but if you do like her, go for it, cause you are going to get good odds. Expect better than expected run from 12 - Primrose Sands and you'll be backing her next start.

Results : Ok..We took a stance against Sunline and it did not come off, but you are not going to get rich backing $2 winners. Think Universal Prince is kidding us - not worth backing horses that are going to get back and run on 'unlucky' each run. Primose Sands as predicted shows she is a chance in the Caulfield Cup - just wish she had one more run this time in.

_________________________________________________________________________
RACE 7: The Time Honoured Jayco Caravan 1420M Group 3 4YO+ M
Selections:
2 - Tickle My 1st W=$15.70
15 - Calm Smytzer 2nd W=$3.00
11 - Shelbourne Lass

Others : 4, 8,13

Pace:
Leaders : 3 - Lady Marion, 9 - Ramano's Star, 12 - Typhoon Billie, 17 - Spice Doll (emerg)
Handy : 6 - Hula Wonder, 8 - Super Sequel, 11 - Shelbourne Lass, 13 - Miss Power Bird, 16 - Life Is Beautiful, 19 - Wyndham Special
Back : 1 - Dynamic Love, 2 - Tickle My, 4 - Arrabeea, 5 - Noircir, 7 - Rain Dance Lady, 10 - Sorrento, 14 - Bumbelina, 15 - Calm Smytzer

Chances:
2 - Tickle My : Drawn out badly, but she does get back. Excellent record here and does go well on wet ground. Should be fitter for 2 runs in and just felt she died on her run 2^nd up and up 400M last time. This does seem to suit and as long the runners on are figuring (again, getting back over Flem 1400M not a plus), she will be in the finish. Does meet 3-Lady Marion on same weight terms, but with expected improvement should be able to beat her home here. 1st W=$15.70
3 - Lady Marion : Honest on pacer, who does need it dry to show best. Good win last start when actually won on the insider at MV (that’s a feat). For some reason Flem has never really been her track, but fit, in form, well drawn, on pace at Flem 1400M have to respect. Is a fair bit of pace here though which might find her out.
4 - Arrabeea : 4^th up and fitter. Ready to win over 1400M. Yet to strike wet ground. Did strike trouble last time in. Hard to line up Sydney form here. Main concern here is how far back she gets - have to watch market to see if she has support. Rough
8 - Super Sequel :Well drawn. Still lightly raced and usually close up in these races. Not sure what happened last run, but won 1^st up in very fast time. Will get good on pace sit from barrier here, and does go well in wet. Watch market, but keep her safe.
11 - Shelbourne Lass : Drawn very wide. Should be much fitter for 2 runs in, 1^st up did run on well, then fair effort 2^nd up. She should be ready to show best here and capable on wet ground. Better off over these shorter distances. Will be caught wide as she does race handy from outside barrier, but just get the feeling she is about to do something. Chance.
13 - Miss Power Bird : Well drawn. Had race won a mile out last time. Does have to give weight to the (1 -1.5kgs). Again, on pacer, over the 1400M here is a plus. She is still a slight query at the 1400M, and this could be a pretty genuine 1400M. Chance, but today might not be her day.
15 - Calm Smytzer : Well drawn. Fitter for 2 runs in and ready to produce here. Unbeaten in 3 starts this track and distance. 2 runs in have been excellent, and made good ground in Group 1 Open company last start. String from ground suits and she will be the one to beat here - should be enough pace to drag her through from a good barrier. Go well. 2nd W=$3.00

Place:
5 - Noircir : Poor old Noircir. Just can't strike the right race. Well drawn and 4 times winner this track. BUT really needs a dry track, a fast pace to run on. Compressed weight scale does benefit as she does usually get lumped at top of weights. Really good run 2^nd up when came home hard, but drifting back here from inside barrier is a worry. Place
6 - Hula Wonder : Drawn out. 3 times winner here and loves the 1400M - 5 wins from 19. Had a long winter campaign, but is usually there abouts in the finish and always has to carry big weights, so laughing here with only 1.5kgs on limit. She does like to go forward, so barrier 15 does seem to pose a problem here. Rough at best. 3rd W=$13.70

Sacking:
1 - Dynamic Love : 2^nd up and up 200M. Come home hard 1^st up. Drawn out. Gets 1.5kgs here from Miss Powerbird from last run which pretty much evens them out. Does usually go well fresh. Despite being well in at weights here, just seems to have task from barrier. Rough.
7 - Rain Dance Lady : A bit costly to follow. Well drawn. Does need a dry track so show best. Definite distance query at the 1400M. Does get 1.5kgs from Miss Powerbird here, but hard to see her improving enough to figure here. No
9 - Ramano's Star : Drawn out badly. Does like to lead too, so if wants to go forward is going to have to cross field. Won this race last year. Last run from 1^st back from a year, and she did go quickly, but did stop just a quickly. 2^nd up and up 200M and think she will need the run here.
10 - Sorrento : Hard horse to follow, but needs a dry track, a fast run race and lots of room in running. Even run 1^st up, then did not do much 2^nd up (but that often happens). Needs to get clear and run on, she just about always strikes trouble when caught in fields. Best runs seem to be when carrying light weights (yep, we know she is only 1.5kgs on limit here). In tough race there are more genuine types to put our money on.
12 - Typhoon Billie : 2^nd up. Drawn out. Bit disappointing 1^st up when did not get much room from inside barrier over 1000M dash. She is very classy, but best when goes forward, and 2^nd up, up 400M, coming off poor 1^st up run prefer to let her go around.
14 - Bumbelina : Well drawn. Hard mare to catch. Does get back and run on - does need it dry though. Good run here 2 starts back , but she is too hard to catch for us. No
16 - Life Is Beautiful :Well drawn. 2^nd up and up 200M. Well supported 1^st up and struck trouble. Can go forward from inside barrier, but there does seem to be a bit of pace in this race. Very even field here and just think she might has the task with the other having race fitness on her. Will start in the market, but we are ready to risk
17 - Spice Doll : Well drawn. Seems to be a definite distance query here and very disappointing last start. No
18 - Kaemess : Another on pacer. Good effort last start. She is probably not quite up to this and does need a dry track to show best. Passing.
19 - Wyndham Special : Now shown to be not quite as special as we all though she was going to be. Should be ready to win here after 2 runs in, but drawn out and does like to go forward and lots of pace here, so going to be caught out. Yet to win past 1200M and happy to let her go around if she gets a run. No

Summary: Another great value race. Compressed weight scale will benefit those who have been carrying big weights. Seems to be a stack of pace here - possible leaders are 3 - Lady Marion, 9 - Ramano's Star, 12 - Typhoon Billie, 17 - Spice Doll - expect at least on of these to really try to burn away, and plenty who sit handy. Obviously, Flem 1400M you want to be on on pacers, but considering how much pace there is here and that the track should be cutting up favouring runners on by now we are happy to pick those drawn out and getting back. Outside barriers might not be such a big disadvantage here, as at least you will get a clear run at them with plenty of bunched on pacers. 2 - Tickle My storming home down the middle of the track out wide, 15 - Calm Smytzer the obvious pick and 11 - Shelbourne Lass ready to show her best. Stack of chances, but happy to just go straight out on the top 2 picks.

Results : Well, we got that pretty much spot on. Fast pace meant Tickle My could get back and run on - and could not believe the juicy odds on offer (thanks to Calm Smytzer who started way too short). Sorrento unlucky, what's new ?

_________________________________________________________________________
RACE 8: Gilgai Stakes 1200M Group 3
Selections:
12 - Rokztar
15 - Look for a Star
11 - Ceffyl

Others: 14,3,16, 7

Pace:
Leaders : 12 - Rokztar, 16 : Gold Class
Handy : 1 - Umrum, 3 - Bomber Bill, 4 - Ruthless Tycoon, 9 - Citchy, 15 - Look for a Star
Back : 2 - Marstic, 5 - Sedation, 6 - Point Danger, 7 - Belle Du Jour, 8 - Slipsteam, 10 - Treviscay, 11 - Ceffyl, 13 - West Express, 14 - Thong Classic

Chances:
3 - Bomber Bill : Drawn middle. Loves the straight - but seems to prefer the 1100M for some reason. Finally showed some form last run and there was not much room, so he was not really ridden out to the line. Looks ready to show something - main problem is that he is hopeless on wet ground, so if the track is good side of dead he goes in, else we will just have to wait for another day. Did win this race last year on a track that was rated good, but was a bit cut up.
7 - Belle Du Jour : Quickly backing up from Epsom last week. Drawn wrong side of track, but is a strong finisher which means the straight will probably suit. Done nothing wrong at 3 runs in. Dead track form is OK, unknown on wet ground. Goes in on her class, and chance if she gets some luck from inside barrier. 1st W=$7.70
11 - Ceffyl : Good win strike rate and placed both runs here. Drops 3 kgs on limit rising in class here. Is a strong finisher who is suited by this draw allowing him to come to the middle of the track. Good chance.
12 - Rokztar : Leader. Drawn outside rail and will get lead easily hard up against outside. 5 times winner over 1200M and is a little under rated, 1^st 2 runs this time in were excellent, then did nothing, but caught out 6 wide all the way last start in fast run race. Hard to know what to do here, as sometimes those who do go really well fresh suddenly loose their form. But if last run was an aberration then he should be in the finish here.
14 - Thong Classic : Have a lot of time for this horse - still yet to miss a place after 12 runs. Handles all track conditions and does have a very strong finishing burst. Been waiting for them to put him into a good race, and does look not too badly suited here - as long as he can sprint well fresh. Chance at odds
15 - Look for a Star : Drawn out (good). Lightly raced with good winning strike rate. Still a horse on the way up, and don't want to go taking too short odds, but drawn wide, not much pace here and he does go forward so looks pretty suited here. Go well.
16 : Gold Class : Easy winner at MV last week. Another drawn wide, and an up and comer. Really did not beat all that much last start though, and probably going to start unders here. On pace horse, but not sure the straight would be his cup of tea. Chance. 3rd W=$3.10

Place:
6 - Point Danger : Drawn middle. 2 runs in have been OK - did flash home 1^st up, then caught wide all of the way 2^nd up. 8 times winner at the 1200M, but never really shown best down straight. Expect him to be coming home hard down the middle of the track and some rough chance. Wet form is just OK, probably better chance if firmer. 2nd W=$39.50
8 - Slipsteam : 2^nd up. Not far off them at MV, and very consistent during the Autumn. 2^nd up here and up 200M is a negative, but does have a strong finish. Probably not at best on wet ground, so preferring place at this stage.
10 - Treviscay : Drawn out (good). Stablemate to the 9 so watch market. Does get well back, but is a strong finisher so suited here. Fresh form if fair and market is going to be best guide, but put in on barrier alone. Just the class is the test here.

Sacking:
1 - Umrum : 4 runs in have been huge and he is really ready to win. Huge run in Eat Well Cup when caught 3 wide all the way. Following the same lead up to the Toorak he has had for the last 2 years - running in this race before attempting the mile next week. That's his goal - and he has not really fired in this race last 2 attempts so keep it for next week.
2 - Marstic : Ultra consistent. Loves the 1200M and been competitive lumping big weights. Seems to be a bit better around a bend (straight form only fair), but wet track here will suit. Major problem is the barrier 1 - just about impossible to win from there when the outside rail is quicker, so that’s enough to leave him out.
4 - Ruthless Tycoon : 2^nd up. Leader who has won down the straight before. Lots of speed in that MV race 1^st up, so drifted back , but again problem here is barrier 3, especially on a horse that likes to go forward. Passing.
5 - Sedation : Drawn outside - which is good. Raced handy 1^st up, but then died quickly on run. OK with a little bit of give in the ground (but not too much), but he was waiting 3 years for that last win in March, and not convinced he is a genuine betting proposition here. No
9 - Citchy : Drawn inside. QLDer with smart win strike rate. Group 3 winner during the winter and probably to this and they have put Prebble on board. 1^st time in Melb, 1^st time down straight, and barrier 2 are all big negatives, but does seem to handle it wet. Have to watch market.
13 - West Express : Drawn out (good). Dropping back from 1600M and though form is consistent in QLD, is just a Class 6 horse. Likely to get well back here and going to let run.

Summary: Only straight race of the day, but safe to assume the outside rail will be faster - so you narrow it down just on barrier position. Expect you might have some rain falling by this race - and a lot of these are queries on slow ground or worse. All of the pace is down the outside - 12 - Rokztar, 16 : Gold Class, but don’t actually expect them to go all that quickly. Bit of a head scratcher especially with lots of unknowns down towards the bottom of the weights - a lot will depend on how much rain we get during the afternoon. Forgiving 12 - Rokztar for the last run as think he will get easy run down outside fence - if he recaptures his previous form he will be in this, 15 - Look for a Star the other outside rail on pacer and improver and 11 - Ceffyl coming home late. 14 - Thong Classic the roughie for the multiples. Watch the betting on all the visitors though. Bit hard to bet with confidence.

Results : Very tricky race and always a bit of a raffle when they all come to the outside like that. Follow up on Thong Classic who made hard run too early.

_________________________________________________________________________
RACE 9: 1700M 4YO +
Selections:
9 - Storm Edition 2nd W=$11.90, P=$4.00
5 - Classic Benbara
8 - Indian Ridge 3rd W=$12.30

Others : 3

Summary: Brief form. Going to get some good value here as a lot of these are early in their preparations and might be found wanting at the end of 1700M on a (presuming) wet track. Pace will be just fair with 14 - Specular or 2 - The Collector leading, and 3 - Adolesence, 5 - Classic Benbara sitting handy. Pretty keen on 9 - Storm Edition here, with claim, race fitness on his side, drawn out should suit by the last with them coming wide and handles all track conditions. Safest each way bet here, 5 - Classic Benbara the danger if we get rain, else 8 - Indian Ridge if it stays dry. Gone away from the norm and expecting lots of value so keen to bet.

1 - Typhoon : Fitter for 2 runs in. Does usually take a few runs to find best and up in distance again here. No
2 - The Collector : 2ndu p and up 300M. Smart win strike rate and very good on day. Does need track dead or better to show up. Leader and well drawn, but was disappointing 1^st up and want to let run here.
3 - Adolesence : Well drawn. On pace stayer who handles all track conditions. Should be fitter for 2 runs in and probably gets run of race here from barrier. Likely to burst through, but probably get run down stepping up in distance - rough chance.
4 - Citra's Prince : Well drawn. Loves it wet. Made good ground 1^st up in race where pace was on. He can race handy, but yet to win in over a year and 2^nd up and up in distance want to see him go around. No 1st W=$14.90
5 - Classic Benbara : Drawn out. Needs it seriously wet to be a genuine chance, but by this time of day he should be just about right. Drawn out should be OK too as they will probably be coming off the rails. Just about always in the finish, has race fitness on most of these and strong chance if the rain comes.
6 - Ekalaka : Well drawn. 2^nd up and up 100M. Can't tell anything from 1^st up run in the Feehan. He does like to get back and run on and not sure the pace here is going to be anything special. Passing.
7 - Lawyer : Has not really lived up to his 3 year old spring season. 3^rd up, but up 300M here and 2 runs in just fair, and does need it dry. Can go forward. No
8 - Indian Ridge : Well drawn. Good win when came late last start. Should be fitter for 2 runs in (and both have been good), and ready for the 1700M off a 1400/1600M lead up. Place 4 times here. Another who does seem to need a firm track to show best though. Chance 3rd W=$12.30
9 - Storm Edition : Drawn out. 4^th up and fitter. Handles all track conditions. Seems to be getting a bit further back in his races these days. Gets in well here with 3kgs claim. Go well. 2nd W=$11.90, P=$4.00
10 - Betta Watch it : Well drawn. 2^nd up and up 300M, but strong form race last start. Very good win strike rate and in smart stable, so sure to be spruiked. Did not have all that much support 1^st up though, so maybe just let him run here.
11 - Iron Horse : Indeed. He has been everywhere and done everything. Winner in ACT,QLD, NSW, WA. Million dollars in stakes. Caulfield Cup place getter. Epsom winner. Raced Overseas (can't remember where). Hurdles. Such a multitude of talents. Only won the one race since Oct 98. PLEASE RETIRE HIM.
12 - Lesvos Ruler : Drawn out. 2^nd up and up 300M here. Old timer and hurdler and looks out of his depth here.
13 - Merlin's Law : 2^nd up and up 300M. Handy on his day, but does need a dry track to show best. Probably still need the run 2^nd up.
14 - Specular : Well drawn. Very consistent on pacer who loves it really really wet. Shocker in last start when even money fav - not sure what happened - maybe he just did not run out the 2000M. Becoming a bit costly to follow and this is harder, so place preferred.

Results : Lots of value here and our each way bet of the day just gets nabbed on the line at very good odds. Follow up on Merlins Law who came home very well.

---

Turnbull Stakes Tips (06/10/2001)

Race 1 13 - Hillsgrove 11 - Foxborough 7 - National Chase	Race 6 4 - Universal Prince 7 - Inaflury 13 - Rum
Race 2 7 - Royal Code 4 - Sir Chuckle SCR 8 - Pentathlon	Race 7 2 - Tickle My 15 - Calm Smytzer 11 - Shelbourne Lass
Race 3 8 - Perliffic 5 - Manzeal 16-Maranello	Race 8 12 - Rokztar 15 - Look for a Star 11 - Ceffyl
Race 4 9 - Defier 5 - Lord Essex 14-Desert Eagle	Race 9 9 - Storm Edition 5 - Classic Benbara 8 - Indian Ridge
Race 5 9 - Special Grange 14 - Liberty Rose 4 - Haste Ye Back

---

Turnbull Stakes Results (06/10/2001)