Stakes Day Form Guide (10/11/2001)

Flemington 10/11/2001

Track: Dead (ended up staying good)
Weather: Showers
Rail: Out 7M

Likely Racing Pattern: Here's a hint. If you want to have a BBQ, don't have it on Stakes Day. It must have rained seriously for 5 years in a row now. Weather is the key here and there is a fair bit of rain forecast, its just a matter of when it comes through. We are assuming that although the weather is good now the rain is going to come. Probably looking at a dead track which may worsen as the day progresses. If the rain starts coming down it can make it harder for the runners on. They will swing wide off the home turn, so want to be on those sitting just off the pace who can make a wide run.

Results : Rain did not come till late in the day, but they were off the track for most of teh later races.

Betting Tip: Expect lots of scratchings to rip this meeting apart yet again. Be careful betting here - most of these are at the end of their preparations and looking for some consolations prizes at the end of the spring. Prefer to go with those that are earlier on in their preparations and fresh on the scene. As a result expect a few value winners - just looking at the tips we have really gone out on a limb and away from the norm in most races.

Quaddie Attack : Huge value quaddie here, but you are going to have to spend big if you want to get it. 1^st leg is totally impossible and put in as many as you can afford, go wide for value in the tough feature mile, happy to go narrow with our 2 top picks in the 3^rd leg, and come home on our 3 best. Confident with last 2 legs - trick is get the first two.

Race 5 : 2,14,16                     1st 14 - Little Dozer W=$22.60
Race 6 : 1(scr),6,12,19(scr)
Race 7 : 4,9                             1st 4 - Burleigh W=$10.30
Race 8 : 3,6,7
= 3 x 2 x 2 x 3 = $18

Results : A huge quaddie indeed - around the $50,000 mark - and quite happy with our effort to get two legs (and the longest of the winners) for just a $18 outlay.

Betting Portfolio ($100):
Again, Stakes day is a better betting day so playing the joker and outlaying more.

Best Each Way: Race 3 : No 13-Slyvaner $5EW 4th
                              Race 7 No 4 Burleigh $15 EW 1st W=$10.30, P=$3.00 = $199.50
                               Race 9 No 2 Super Impressive $15 EW
                               (entered for race 6 as well, put bet on whichever race he starts in ).

Best Rough : Race 4 : No 11 Prosecution and No 14 - Orin $2.50 EW
                          Race 9 No 9 Nutcracker $5EW.

Quinella : Race 3 : 1,5,7,11(scr),13 x $1 = $10 $4 for scratching
(unlucky here with No 5 Piper Star winning at $21 and getting 3rd and 4th).

Spents : $100
Return : $203.50
Net : $+103.50

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RACE 2: 1000M Group 2 Maribyrnong Plate 2YO
Selections:
4 - Nessuno 2nd W=$10.30
2 - Bel Esprit 1st W=$1.70
8 - Emitella

Quinella : $8.10

Summary: We don’t usually bet in the early 2 year olds, but we did like the run of the 4-Nessuno first up, who worked home hard like a genuine race horse. 2 - Bel Espirit blitzed them at MV and you can pick who you want out of the rest.
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RACE 3: Matriarch Stakes 2000M
Selections:
13 - Slyvaner
11 - La Zoffany SCR
5 - Piper Star 1st W=$21.00

Others : 1,7

Pace:
Leaders : 11 - La Zoffany
Handy : 2 - Alterio, 7 - Oregon Seal, 8 - Regal Touch, 13 - Slyvaner, 15 - Gone
Back : 1 - Tickle My, 4 - Miss Zoe, 3 - Calm Smyzter, 5 - Piper Star, 6 - Umaline, 9 - Tyrolean, 10 - Andrella, 17 - Deaconess, 18 - Call Me Lily, 19 - Shally's Magic

Chances:
1 - Tickle My : Talented mare who has overcome the outside barrier before. Loves to get back and run over the top of them. Right in finish last week when made ground against pattern. Does look the one to beat here given enough luck in running to get clear and come home. Have to admit Beadman on board has put us off though - he is not familiar with the horse and think she does need to have her run timed to win (and he has not been doing it for us.). Does not seem to be much pace here which is against here. Chance and capable if wet. 3rd W=$6.50
5 - Piper Star : Fitter for 3 runs in. Good strong win finishing hard at Caulfield. Does meet the (13) 2.5 kgs worse off for that run. Not far off them at Werribee and will be fitter for that run. Lightly raced with potential. Good chance. 1st W=$21.00
7 - Oregon Seal : Drawn out. Small mare who flew home at MV. Have to respect that run coming into this and good chance.
11 - La Zoffany : Fitter for 4 runs in. Saves best form for Flem. Does look very well weighted here - not that far away last week and meets the (1)3kgs better and the (3) 4kgs better. Races on pace and there does not seem to be much pace here at all. Only query is the 2000M, but expect her to be at peak with the 4 runs in and good rough chance here.SCR
13 - Slyvaner : OK, you may have noticed we are a bit of a fan of this horse. But she races on pace and just keeps putting herself into the finish. Capable on wet ground. At peak now with 4 runs in - meets the (5) 1.5kgs better on weights from Caulfield which is enough to turn around the margin (and she got the harder on pace run there). Leader dominated race last start and she just could not run down leader with soft lead. Does meet the (11) worse off on weights from that race for narrow margin. Good chance here with not much pace.

Place:
2 - Alterio : Drawn out. Lightly raced with good win strike rate. Has had a very long spring though is a bit of a put off. Usually races on pace, but change of tactics at Werribee saw her back off speed and win. If she goes forward here she gets caught out wide from barrier. Just a bit concerned that might happen and how long she has been up. Prefer place.
6 - Umaline : Hard to catch, but good on day. Best when drawn out with some room in running on big track, with pace. Although has not shown much this time in expect a big improvement if she strikes a firm track. Rough 2nd W=$27.60
14 - Be My Princess : Another very over rated mare who is hard to catch on her day. Good run last start and should be near peak with 4 runs in. Twice winner over the 2000M and think last run was a sign she is about to show some form. Capable in wet. Rough chance.
15 - Gone : Lightly raced and has shown a bit. Freshened since run in the Herbert Power and just would prefer to let her run here with the 6 weeks off. But she will race handy with not much speed so maybe a rough chance.

Sacking:
3 - Calm Smyzter : Proving a bit costly for punters - she really has had every chance most runs this time in and get herself into the finish, but can't get her nose over the line. Actually meets the (1) 1kg worse off from last week, as well at the (11) Loves Flem and loves some give in the ground, but very costly to follow - started well supported in Sydney runs last preparation and failed to salute. They decided then to keep her to shorter distances, and back up to the 2000M here. Probably places again, but not well weighted here and prefer to get on a better betting proposition.
4 - Miss Zoe : Drawn out. Up to the 2000M here, but does have good distance form. Disappointing here last wee, but probably looking for the distance here. Bit of an unknown quantity stepping up to 2000M first time this preparation and prefer to see her go around.
8 - Regal Touch : 3^rd up and up 400M and would prefer with one more run. Excellent 2000M record and expect her to race a lot more handy here from good barrier. Maybe a rough place chance with not much pace here.
9 - Tyrolean : Looked a likely contender at the start of the spring, but form has tapered off (even if she has been running in much harder company). Pretty sure she has had enough this time in and not keen.
10 - Andrella : Nzer who has done nothing in two runs here this time in. No
12 - Dame Cath : Over rated stayer who has had plenty of chances. Dropping back in class, but find her hard to catch and prefer to risk.
16 - Its Not Easy : Fitter for the 3 runs in and not that far off them at Caulfield. Had time off since then and had a month off run before that so probably going to need the run here.
17 - Deaconess : Adel stayer who find some of these too smart over the shorter distances. Strike rate is nothing flash. No
18 - Call Me Lily : Drawn wide and had way too many chances. Struggles to find the wining post and 1^st time at 2000M. No
19 - Shally's Magic : Went around Tuesday and form not good enough.

Summary: Good solid betting race where we know these ones pretty well so can bet with confidence. Most of these can handle a bit of rain, but key to this race seems to the lack of pace - just 11 - La Zoffany leading with 2 - Alterio, 13 - Slyvaner, and 15 - Gone sitting off her. Think this will make it tough for the runners on so keen to get on with some value about the top two picks with 13 - Slyvaner and 11 - La Zoffany at good each way odds. 5 - Piper Star and 1 - Tickle My the main dangers running on, but just got the feeling Tickle My might not get things to suit today.

Results : Nice result race. Get the value winner, and track stays firm and we give a good chance to Umaline under those conditions at huge odds. A very gettable $4400 trifecta awaits. Calm Smyzter starts favourite and is badly held up for runs, but she is just getting too costly to follow anyway.

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RACE 4: 1400M 3YO
Selections:
11 - Prosecution
13 - Mutli Bonza
14 - Orin

Others: 2, 15,16,7

Chances:
2 - Magic Hatter : Likely leader well drawn. Been up for a while, and just get the feeling this is the tail end of spring send them around once more run. Fought on well last run and plus is that he did not go around last week. Best chance if allowed to sit off the speed here. Bit of rain would be a plus. Chance.
7 - Time Deposit : Good strong win 1^st up at MV. Faces a huge task 2^nd up here and up 400M, but with only the 3 starts sometimes the lightly raced ones on the way up can do it. Rough chance and doubt we will get the odds we want. 2nd W=$3.40
11 - Prosecution : Maiden who is showing ability. Ran on well at Caulfield and that is strong form race. Pace is going to be on here to suit. Trick is getting into clear from barrier 1, but at the odds happy to put him in here. Chance.
13 - Mutli Bonza : Off the top of our head Ellerton has a very good record in this race with up and coming country gallopers - Desert Eagle winning this last year and Black Bean a couple of years before that. Don't know much about this one but willing to put it in on spec based on that and that we want the up and coming 3 year old. Chance.
14 - Orin : Drawn out. Capable middle distance galloper who will probably be suited with fast pace on here and might do something fresh. Throw in as a bolter.
15 - Skill : 2^nd up. Good win with big weight 1^st up. Has been therabouts at last 4 runs and is another done in the weights who could surprise. Rough
16 - Tell Someone : Fitter for the 2 runs in here and not that far off them last start in what is proving to be a strong from race. Another who could pop up at odds.

Sacking:
1 - Chong Tong : Strong win last sat on hard track. Worth nothing that North Boy fell apart on Thurs. Enter for WFA race Thurs, but gone the easier option here - which to us says lesser confidence in the horse. Drawn out, top weight and likely top drift back over the 1400M here. 1^st try at 1400M too - races like it will suit. Needs a firm track. Risking him here. 1st W=$5.60
3 - Kolase : Drawn out. Does look to have ability, but on pacer who faces tough task from outside barrier with a fair bit of speed here. No 2nd W=$29.90
4 - Tellson : Well drawn. QLD form is excellent, but will get well back here from inside barrier and 2^nd up and up 300M faces a task. Risking
5 - Finbarr : Too disappointing last Sat. No
6 - Run Just Run : Honest performer who usually finds one better. Going to get caught on fast pace here. Good run last Sat and does get a 2kgs weight adv. from the top weight for that run. Inside draw a negative as winner will probably come out wide. Rough chance.
8 - Twigum : Needs it really really wet. No
9 - Bourverie's Jest : Best over sprint distances and been safely held last couple. No
10 - Presently : Lead last week with on pacers dominating, but just don’t think he runs out a strong 1600M. Back to 1400M here suits, lightly weighted and will lead - just a matter of if he gets pressured or not. If he does he is a goner, if he does not then he could just about pinch this. Rough.
12 - Fine and Dapper : Consistent performer drawn out and does like to race handy so will get caught out here. Some of these do look too smart. Passing.

Summary: Brief form on main chances. Up and coming 3 year olds can be hard to follow so not a race we can bet on with confidence. Pace is potentially quite fast here with 2 - Magic Hatter., 5 - Finbarr, 10 -Presently leaders and 3 - Kolase , 6 - Run Just Run camping on speed. Should set it up for a runner on. Prefer to get on an up and comer here rather than a 3 year old at the end of the their preparation. Been stung a couple of times in this race by the well performed spring galloper coming to the end of their preparation getting bloused by the up and comer at good odds. So going a bit out of the ordinary and expecting one of the bottom 6 runners to blow most punters out of the water here. Play with the roughies for some fun.

Results : Oh well..we took a bit of a punt and blew it. Dry track meant Chong Tong was right back in the equation. Proescution, Tellson and Run Just Run all hopelessly held up for runs.
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RACE 5: 1100M Listed
Selections:
14 - Little Dozer 1st W=$22.60
2 - Pembleton 3rd W=$5.40
16 - Kashkii

Others (in order) : 9, 11,17,13,12,3

Chances:
2 - Pembleton : Good middle draw. Good win strike rate and kept fresh for this. Chance. 3rd W=$5.40
3 - Delirious : Good middle draw. Does have a very good 1^st up record and we think he is best over sprint distances. Will suit the pattern of coming hard and late down the middle of the track so some chance. Capable in wet. Just not sure if he will go as well fresh now he is a bit older. Rough
9 - Straight Ace : Smart performer who is another yet to win past 1000M. Badly baulked for run at Werribee and very well weighted against those coming through that race. Put in as rough chance despite distance query.
11 - Slipstream : Fitter for 3 runs in. He is capable of winning this on his best form. Run 1^st up was good, the slightly disappointing last 2 - chance if he gets a genuine dry track cause think that is what he is looking for.
12 - Suit : Well drawn to middle of track. Best form is over the 1100Mand he should be ready to do something with the 3 runs in. Placed 3 from 5 this track and distance. Worry is that he has not won a race now since Feb 00. Wants a firm track to be any chance.
13 - Ulricho : Good outside draw. Did not do much 1^st up when WGA probably did not suit. Capable with a bit of give in the ground and will be a runner on. Put in as a rough chance with improvement back to handicap here.SCR
14 - Little Dozer : Drawn out. Needs it really wet. He is a runner on and drawn to get down middle of track here. Huge run 1^st up at WFA, then did not do much last start (but was 2^nd up). Top chance if we get a wet track, back to handicap conditions.1st W=$22.60
16 - Kashkii : Flew home over the top in impressive win last start. Barrier 1 is a tough ask, but he will drop back and come home hard. Pluses with him are that he is actually in form and improver on the way up. Hopelessly weighted here against the (9) is a negative, but he does seem to have scope for improvement. Good chance.
17 - Grey Regent : Twice winner down the straight, and well weighted here against the (16). Probably going to start huge odds if he gets a run, but does seem to have recaptured his best form and drawn to sit off the pace here. Rough chance if runs. 2nd W=$42.80

Sacking:
1 - Regal Shot : Very smart, very fast and stack of potential - but he has failed every time he has stepped past 1000M. Better on wet ground. Keen to risk with top weight here and down the straight is not an easy 1100M (especially when drawn inside barrier and likes to lead). Headed Mistegic last start and then he went past him again. No
4 - Pittance : Slaughtered by riderless horse in this race last year. Tough ask from inside barrier, and although this is easier than last 2 runs, his form is nothing special. Passing
5 - Mr Royston : Drawn outside and can go forward (thereby avoiding crunch). Really have to watch market 1^st up - but sure something will pressure it in the lead here and prefer to be on something coming home late and hard. No
6 - Schubert ; Funny to see ex star 3 year old back in town. Ran in a Caulfield Guineas and Cox Plate ??. No idea what he could do fresh and prefer to leave out just as an unknown anyway. Can't imagine what the aim would be for him after this either. Passing
7 - Ateates : Drawn out and get outside rail. Been very disappointing this time in and can't have.
8 - Strabane : Drawn out. 2^nd up. Good win strike rate. But pretty much an unknown for us - coming off a track record over the prestigious 870M course at Randwick. Prefer to see.
10 - Matter of Honour : Speedster who has not quite been putting it all together this time in. Faces a tough task here from inside barrier as is best ridden on the speed.
15 - Pastime : Dead heater in the 870M race at Rand last start. Meets the (8) on same weight terms here, but he is lightly raced with a bit more scope for potential. He is a speedster though and get the feeling that they are going to undo each other here. No
18 - The Little Tacker : Leader who will buckle under the pressure here. No

Summary: Brief form. Wide open affair and not one you can bet in with confidence. Outside rail is definitely faster, but the good old days when you could just box up the outside barriers are long gone - those who get closest to the outside rail usually get pretty cramped for runs these days and you want to be on the one getting the clear run back towards the middle of the track. Pace is very fast with 5 - Mr Royston, 7 - Ateates, 10 - Matter of Honour, 15 - Pastime. Awful lot of distance doubts and out of form sprinters here so looks a no bet race. Trying to pick the runners on - so just guessing with 14 - Little Dozer, 2 - Pembleton and 16 - Kashkii

Results : The speedsters and the distance doubts all fall in a hole and our long shot pick comes running over the top of them for a very nice result.
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RACE 6: Emirates Stakes 1600M Group 1
Selections:
6 - Le Zagaletta
1 - Show a Heart SCR
12 - Aka Bilk

Others ( in order) : 13, 16, 10

Pace:
Leaders : 9 - La Bella Dama
Handy : 2 - Umrum , 3 - Mr Murphy , 12 - Aka Bilk , 14 - Flavour , 15 - Lord Essex, 19 - Super Impressive, 18 - Desert Eagle
Back : 1 - Show a Heart , 4 - Crawl , 6 - Le Zagaletta , 7 - Weasel Will , 8 - Final Fantasy , 10 - Emission , 11 - Market Price , 13 - Defeir ,16 - Mr Bureaucrat , 17 - Brave Prince

Chances:
1 - Show a Heart : Flew home to win Toorak when pace set the race up for him. Drawn out, but means the can do the same again (drawn out in Toorak as well). Good effort on Sat in the sprint, and just loves a bit of give in the ground. Lack of pace here is the thing that could see him undone, so would like to see him ridden a bit more forward. Plus is you know he handles it wet, so you can back him no matter what the track conditions are. Top chance in this. SCR
6 - Le Zagaletta : Racing as well as ever- usually his form does taper off pretty quickly after a few runs each preparation, but seems to be holding form. Hit lead early and on the inside at MV, which always means you are going to get run down. Loves it wet. Meet Weasel Will 2kgs better off here. Wide draw suits. Strong chance.
10 - Emission : Busting to win, with good run in MacKinnon. Gets a very nice 3kgs here from La Bella Dama back to handicap conditions, which is enough to turn around the margin (and no leaders track bias here). Well drawn and another who will come around them and swing wide in straight. Not that far off them in Waterford Crystal either - and meets Weasel Will 1kgs better, Le Zagaletta 0.5kgs worse and Mr Bureaucrat 1kgs worse from that run. Problem again is a wet track - good chance on a dry track (better side of dead), passing over on a track that is worsening. 2nd W=$5.70
12 - Aka Bilk : Good run in this race last year. Disqualified from 1600M win here during winter, but apart from that in 7 starts at the 1600M he just got the one 2nd - get the feeling he just struggles at 1600M in top company. The pluses with him though are that he is fresher than most of these, ran a good race last week (and he used the same race as a lead up last year), he will be better for that run coming off a break, and he does seem to save his best for wet tracks. Lack of pace here suits him cause he can sit handy and sprint quickly. Just get the feeling something will run him down, but put in as a rough chance.
13 - Defeir : Sacked him at MV because of MV and he did not run on till it was all over. Hopelessly unlucky in Toorak before that. Drawn out is his go, cause he seems to struggle to get runs when drawn inside. Hooked wide for a clear run he is a chance. Drops 2kgs into this (meeting Weasel Will 1.5kgs better, Le Zagaletta 0.5kgs better and Mr Bureaucrat =). Capable on dead ground, query if it gets worse than that. Chance.
16 - Mr Bureaucrat : Been right in the finish last 2 runs on in the feature miles. Drawn out is probably a plus here as best ground will be wide in the straight. Gets a very nice 2.5kgs from Weasel Will (for 1.4L - so should beat him home), and 0.5 kgs from Le Zagaletta. He has been up a while, but more capable than most of these in the wet and rates a strong chance.
19 - Super Impressive : Very well drawn and fits the criteria of being a fresh horse just about to peak in his preparation. Nice light weight in this, and very unlucky last start when struggled to get a clear run for most of the straight. He can sit forward here from good barrier. Right in this if he got a start - but only if the track is dry (better side of dead) - bit of a query in the wet - but weight will assist. Great chance if gets a run. SCR

Place:
2 - Umrum : Has not had the best of luck this time in, being drawn wide or striking wet tracks. Well drawn and will race handy on slow speed here, but he will get stuck on the inside from barrier 2 which will not be the place to be. OK (but not great) in wet ground (as opposed to most of these who are useless in it), and deserves a change of luck. Ran a close up 4^th with 58kgs in this race last year. Rough chance - promote to good chance if track stays firmish.
4 - Crawl : Drawn very wide - but OK on track they will be swinging wide on. Just handles it wet and is best on top of the ground. Always runs on in these feature miles, but it is worth noting his 1600M is now 7 starts for 2 thirds. He does fit the criteria of being the fresh horse - should be at peak now with 3 runs in. Would actually like to see him ridden a little forward, cause he does tend to run on when the race is all over, and slow pace here is not going to help him. Ran 3^rd in this race last year with 51.5kgs, so far hike in weight here. We have gone off him a bit - probably runs on into the placings again.
7 - Weasel Will : Finally bounced back to form in Waterford Crystal. Placed in this race last year after winning that race, so right in this. Only just handles it wet and wide draw is a plus on a track when they are swinging wide. Meets Mr Bureaucrat 2kgs worse off from MV, and Le Zagaletta 1.5kgs worse off which is enough to turn around both margins. Puts him into the finish, but probably tending towards those with the weight pulls. Downgrading to place chance on the weights.
11 - Market Price : Hard mare to follow, but on her day she has a super fast finish. She would need the pace on here though, which she is not going to get, and definitely needs a firmish track (better side of dead). Got a dream rails run here last Saturday - wide barrier a plus cause she needs a clear crack at them. Excellent record at Flem 4 wins from 9 starts. Don't think the slow pace here will suit. Rough if the track stays firm (better side of dead)
17 - Brave Prince : Well drawn. Old timer who has been well held last 2, but showed with his 1^st up win he can handle the wet ground. Struggled to get in the clear at MV and bigger track here probably suits. He will be finishing on hard out wide if there is any pace. Nice light weight and the bolter to throw in if he gets a run. Rough chance.SCR

Sacking:
3 - Mr Murphy : Well drawn and he can race handy here on slow pace and sprint away from them (and around them from outside barrier). Used up from outside barrier in Toorak, and then drop back to 1200M not his go last week. On a dry track would just rate him a good chance. On wet track (even dead track) he really struggles. Rough only if the rain comes.
5 - Hire : Just failed to grab the leader here last week. Has been kept fresh for this race with races over shorter distances. Very costly to follow and many have had enough (and far enough). Wet track is a problem with him and he did fail badly in this race last year. Probably runs a little better with a different fresher preparation this year, but just not one you can ever back with confidence. He is up 400M coming off 1 run and a 6 week break. No
8 - Final Fantasy : Surprise winner in Epsom, then flopped at MV, but bigger track here should suit. Capable in wet ground where most of these are not. Find him a bit hard to follow, probably a rough chance here, but prefer to be on others that are a bit more consistent.
9 - La Bella Dama : Surprise packet who won at long odds at MV (and that was a strong win cause she could have got run down), then lapped up the soft lead and on pace bias in the Mackinnon. Into open handicap here means she is not as well off - meeting Emission 3kgs worse off. However, she is more capable on the wet than most of these, and there is not much pace here again, so that puts her back in the equation. Difference here is that best ground is going to be off rails and think the lead and having to swing wide will set her up for something to run her down. Prepared to take a sit against her today. 3rd W=$11.40
14 - Flavour : Grand old timer who is quite capable in the wet. Flopped on Sat, but the really hard track could have been against him here. Probably races a bit more forward here from good barrier, but dubious about backing him at 1400M, yet alone 1600M so leaving out.
15 - Lord Essex : OK in the wet. Will race handy here on a soft pace. But think he has shown last 2 starts that he is a huge distance query at the 1600M. No
18 - Desert Eagle : Excellent runs last 2 to be right in finish and he can race forward. Can handle the track as far as dead, but once worse than that he struggles. Has also struggled at the 1600M before so yet another to leave out. 1st W=$18.90

Summary: Really not that much in the way of speed here, but usually in this feature races one or more will go early to apply the pressure up front. Many of these do not go in the wet (even a genuine dead), so the weather is going to be the key factor here - on a wet track there are very few chances here. Many of these went around in this last year. With not much pace on - just 9 - La Bella Dama leading with 2 - Umrum , 3 - Mr Murphy 15 - Lord Essex sitting off her think we want to be on something sitting forward that can sprint quickly around them and pinch this, whilst all the get back and run on milers are coming home hard, but too late. We are doing a bit of creative tipping here - keen to get on the emergency 19 - Super Impressive with the light weight and the fresh horse on the scene - but realise he is probably not going to get a start, so tipping 4 to make up for it. Wide open race here - assuming with a bit of rain we want to be on 6 - Le Zagaletta, 1 - Show a Heart, 12 - Aka Bilk.

Results : Oh boy....summed up the race perfectly - just could not find the winner. Soft lead to La Bella Dama, who like we said, coming out wide in the straight leaves her a sitting duck for one to sprint past her (Desert Eagle), whilst all the feature milers run on when its too late...We searched high and low to come up with one to meet the pattern of how we saw the race to be run, and the winner was staring us in the face all the time.
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RACE 7: 2000M Welter
Selections:
4 - Burleigh 1st W=$10.30
9 - The A Train
8 - Merlin's Law

Others (in order): 17, 14,3

Pace:
Leaders : 1 - The Collector, 17 - Power and Fame (emerg)
Handy : 2 - Adolescence, 5 - Kreisler Mirage, 9 - The A Train, 10 - Viva La Vie, 11 - Imax, 12 - Jade Prince, 13 - Manzeal, 15 - Comforts
Back : 3 - Collins Street, 4 - Burleigh, 6 - Lawyer, 7 - Make Me A Miracle, 8 - Merlin's Law, 14 - Varsilayos, 16 - Currency Rep, 18 - Rainbows for Me, 19 - Ringleader

Chances:
4 - Burleigh : Drawn out. Another who is talented on his day, but you need to get that day right. Fitter for 3 runs in and should be right at peak with 2000M run in Coogny. He does get back in run, but wide barrier and clear crack at them looks a good bet here. Expect further improvement from last run. Best with give in ground as well. Keen to get on at each way odds. 1st W=$10.30
8 - Merlin's Law : Drawn very wide. Right at peak now with 4 runs in. Aimed way too high in Mackinnon, but 3 runs before that were excellent. Does need a firm track to show best (better side of dead), but he is one on the way up here and keen to get on despite wide barrier. Good chance.
9 - The A Train : Strong win at Caulfield and form has held up with Evenspalm winning on Thursday. Showing a bit of potential and should improve further from that run over the 2000M. Plus with him is that he is quite capable if it gets wet and he can sit close to speed from good barrier. One to beat here.
17 - Power and Fame : Good barrier draw. Just loves it wet and the wetter the better. Should be fitter for the 3 runs in, especially the run over 2000M. Problem is that he is yet another on pacer, and there are plenty here. However, may be worth throwing in as a rough chance as he will be at good odds and expecting improvement here. Rough
18 - Rainbows for Me : Drawn out. Non winner who is getting costly to follow. Capable in wet ground and just beaten at Yarra Glen last start in small field when pace would not have been to suit. Forget run before that at Caulfield when went for inside runs when that was not the best going. Best form is at the 2000M and should be ready to produce now with 4 runs in. Hard to back with confidence, but with good pace on here he should be running on. Good rough chance if he gets a start. SCR

Place:
2 - Adolescence : Well drawn. Been mixing form a little this time in. Badly bauked for run at Caulfield, so you can forget that run, then right in the finish in Werribee Cup. Capable if it gets wet. He will sit handy here. Do find him a bit hard to catch and although he looks ready to produce, his form this time in has not been as good as previous preparations. Rough 2nd W=$5.70
3 - Collins Street : Drawn out. Very talented on day, but needs things to suit - dry track and fast pace. Best form is fresh and 3^rd up and up 400M here is does perform best first couple of runs in each time. Made good ground 1^st up at Caulfield. Put in as rough chance if track stays firm enough for him.
10 - Viva La Vie : Well drawn. Best with just a little bit of give in the ground which he will probably get here. Actually quite well weighted here from Coogny (meeting Burleigh 1.5kgs better and Merlin's Law 0.5kgs better). Has been right in the finish most runs this time in and good place chance here.
14 - Varsilayos : Well drawn. Fitter for the 2 runs in and fits the criteria of being the fresh horse on the scene. 3^rd up and up 500M is an ask and might just need the one more run. Speed on here will suit. Rough chance, but probably just needs this run.

Sacking:
1 - The Collector : Poor guy just can't strike a dry track. Lumped with 59kgs here. Won this race last year on dead track with 56.5 when led all the way. Should be just about to peak with 3 runs in this time. Expect improvement, but just get the feeling he is going to need one more to strike best (form was much better coming into this last year). No
5 - Kreisler Mirage : Drawn out a little. He has been up for absolute forever which is pretty off putting. He can race handy out wide here. Dropping back to the 2000M. Just can't imagine he has much left this spring so leaving out.
6 - Lawyer : Rarely wins. Even effort last 3 runs. Best form is at the 2000M. Best going will be off rails so barrier 1 no plus. Probably can run into a place at his favourite distance, but a dubious betting proposition there days so leaving out.
7 - Make Me A Miracle : Well drawn. Did not do much on super hard track last week. Gets back and flies home, but yet to win past 1400M is a worry and 2000M on a potentially wet track won't be easy. Passing.
11 - Imax : Wide draw. Even effort in Werribee Cup where there was a fair bit of speed. Does seem to be a bit of speed here and likely to get caught out wide from the barrier. Passing.
12 - Jade Prince : Inside draw no plus if they are swinging wide. Shocking run here on Tues, yet to win past 1600M and really done nothing in Melb this time in. No
13 - Manzeal : Drawn out. Melbourne form has been poor. Caught very wide on speed in fast run race at Flem, but really did nothing at Caulfield. Yet another on pacer and prefer to be on the runners on in this with a bit of pace. No
15 - Comforts : 3^rd up and fitter for those runs. Stepping up in class a bit from restricted Adel win. Last win was first for a while and whilst he is racing consistently, win strike rate suggests that he is nothing special. Prefer to let run here. 3rd W=$24.20
16 - Currency Rep : Drawn very wide. Lightly raced with pretty good win/strike rate. Can race on pace, but probably has to drop back from barrier. Up in class a bit here and prefer to be on others.
19 - Ringleader : Lightly raced and better in wet ground. Does get well back and run on so suited by fast pace here. Stepping up in class without any real weight relief. Trained by Bart so likely to start unders. Rough chance if he gets a start which is unlikely.

Summary: Once again, assuming there will be a bit of rain around. Pace here actually looks quite fast - 1 - The Collector, 17 - Power and Fame (emerg), but even if the emergency does not get a run there are plenty here who race forward and should apply pressure - 2 - Adolescence, 10 - Viva La Vie, 11 - Imax, 13 - Manzeal. Want to be on the runners on coming out wide here. Keen to get on the 4 - Burleigh ready to win, coming home hard and late if we get some rain, from 9 - The A Train who looks to be a genuine horse on the improve. Good rough chance to 18 - Rainbows for Me (emerg) if he gets a run. Keen to bet as even field should leave us with some value. Tipped four again because of the emergency.

Results : Burleigh comes home hard and late to give us another good result. Get on Varsilayos next start who is ready to win.
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RACE 8: Queen Elizabeth Stakes 2500M Group 2
Selections:
3 - Danyon
7 - Padfoot Charlie
6 - Touch The Groom

Others : 11

Pace:
Leaders : 4 - Hatha Anna, 5 - Primrose Sands
Handy : 1 - Magneto, 3 - Danyon, 9 - Ascana, 10 - Tiger's Eye, 12 - Matriculate, 15 - Break the Bank, 18 - Our Le Bleu
Back : 2 - Sale of Century, 6 - Touch The Groom, 7 - Padfoot Charlie, 11 - Just Honour, 13 - Indian Ridge, 14 - Fraar Magic, 16 - Green Raider, 17 - Big Hustler, 19 - Teddy Bear

Chances:
3 - Danyon : Good win strike race. Great run in Metropolitan after 6 weeks off and ready to hit peak with extra run to tidy him up. Capable in all going and does look to have some ability. Trainer decided not to try for Melbourne Cup and set him for this instead. New horse on the scene and put in as good chance.
6 - Touch The Groom : Probably been the unlucky horse of the spring - hopelessly held up for runs in Geelong Cup, then got too far back in SAAB last week and good effort to get into finish against on pace bias. OK with a bit of give in the ground. Difference here is that he has finally drawn out a bit, cause he can find trouble in the run. With good pace here and ability to hook wide for clear run looks right in the finish here. Good chance.
7 - Padfoot Charlie : The fresh horse on the scene and just reaching peak now with 4 runs in and run over 2500M. Good win strike right and capable on all going. Drawn out and that’s probably a plus as he does get back and need a clear run at them. Held up for runs from inside barrier at MV (as we predicted), but ready to fire here. Go well.
11 - Just Honour : Just faded on run here last week when ridden a bit more forward than usual. That was only 4^th run in and can expect further improvement on that run. Better if allowed to drift back and run home, and bit of give in the ground here would be a plus. Good chance with improvement on last run.

Place:
8 - Steel Phoenix : Fitter for the 4 runs in. He can mix form a little, but is a very capable stayer on his day. Looked ready for a big spring with 1^st two runs in, but been disappointing last 2 runs. Capable of being in this on best and handles all going, so rough chance if he returns to some form. Bigger track here might make some difference.
9 - Ascana : Very lightly raced and showing a lot of potential. Tackling the 2500M for the first time here, and likely to take a forward position. Just get the feeling that the rise in class here is going to find him out against some more seasoned stayers. Place. 2nd W=$10.80
14 - Fraar Magic : Well drawn. Been racing very well and made good ground out wide in slowly run Geelong Cup. OK in all going and should be running home late here. Just might be aiming a bit high in this and has been up for a while, so rough chance at very best.

Sacking:
1 - Magneto : Seeking revenge after being booted out of Melbourne Cup. Drawn out. Loves it wet. Seemed to be just running into form. Best ridden a bit closer to the lead which means he might get caught out a little wide here. Just has not won for a while (Sept 2000), and just get the feeling his best his behind him. Prefer to be on one of the up and coming stayers with less weight
2 - Sale of Century : Drawn out. Has really done nothing down here this time in. Does need a firm track to show best, but really one dimensional and too costly to follow. No
4 - Hatha Anna : International raider who did not get a run in the Cup, so has to go around here to try and earn enough money to get back home (else he will have to go fruit picking with all the other back packers). A little bit of rain around will help him and he is a pace setter - and that does seem to be the key to the internationals - the only ones that do any good as those that race forward, get some space and run their own race. Still a total unknown, and if they do ride him back in the field then he probably won't win. Prefer to let run. 1st W=$6.40
5 - Primrose Sands : Bit surprised to see her going around here after packing it in (even though there was an on pace bias) last Sat. Drawn well to lead again here, but you got to have the feeling after last 2 runs that she has had enough this time in and passing.
10 - Tiger's Eye : Huge wraps going into spring and he has flopped badly. Best with a little give in the ground and best when ridden up on the pace - which would be good here cause want the on pacers to knock each other over. Can't have on form. 3rd W=$10.10
12 - Matriculate : Extremely overrated Cummings stayer who has drawn a shocker and needs the track to be super firm to show best. No
13 - Indian Ridge : Drawn out. Loves Flem (5 placings from 8 starts) and OK effort at 1^st try past 2000M last week. Another who does need a genuinely firm track to show best, and although should be improved with 2500M run just get the inkling he was not running out the longer distance. No
15 - Break the Bank : Oldie who has had the 3 runs in from a spell, but 6 weeks since last run suggest he will need this. No
16 - Green Raider : Pretty ordinary plodder who needs a wet track to show best. Aiming too high here.
17 - Big Hustler : Form is shocking. No
18 - Our Le Bleu : Loves it wet and can race handy here, so another who looks outclassed here.
19 - Teddy Bear : Only won the one race - the Group 3 St Ledger. Cost us a stack that day and good to see that it was just a total fluke. No

Summary: Expect a hard run race with a fair bit of pace - especially if the import 4 - Hatha Anna runs to the lead (which he should if they want to win). If he doesn't, 5 - Primrose Sands or 10 - Tiger's Eye will make it a genuinely run race. That should set it up for some hard honest stayers to run over the top of him - only slight problem is that most of these are either leaders, or get well back - would prefer to see some of our picks ridden a bit closer (else it could be too late by the time they hook out and run on). As such rating the 3 - Danyon on top as he will race closer to the lead than most of the other main chance, from the fresh horse 7 - Padfoot Charlie and the super unlucky 6 - Touch The Groom.

Results : Local jockey shows how to ride international horses - he did only just get there though. Great runs from Danyon in worse part of track and from Fraars Magic running on. Touch The Groom's spring campaign finish at about the 100M mark.
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RACE 9: 1400M Welter
Selections:
2 - Super Impressive
7 - The Pumper 1st W=$14.00
9 - Nutcracker

Others: 1,3

Chances:
1 - Debrief : Absolutely flying this time in. Bit hard to tell where he is going to run - has dropped out last 2, but they have been from outside barriers. Better draw here and not much pace means he might go forward - so chance if he goes forward, risking if he goes back. Handles wet well. Realise we won't know that before the run, so have to put him in with a chance. 2nd W=$5.40
2 - Super Impressive : Read comment in Emirates Stakes. Keen to get on here if he runs, would prefer him drawn out a bit cause inside barrier got him stuck last start (especially with slow pace). Sits on pace on right in this and jockey change is a big positive. Needs room in running, but assuming Oliver can get him into clear where jockey could not last week.
3 - One Under : Had the 2 runs in and love to get on them, 3^rd up after the run over the 1400M. Inside barrier in slowly run race is no plus here as she can drift back in the run. Really depends if they are coming off the fence (giving running room) or not coming into this. Drawn out would just about rate her on top, but reservations drawn in.
7 - The Pumper : Drawn a nice barrier to sit on speed but get clear run. Fitter for 2 runs in and good runs first up and even run 2^nd up when ridden forward. Putting him in here on the basis that he will be ridden forward a little again. Unknown in wet ground - but only time he got anywhere near a wet track was Flem run, so its inconclusive. Good chance. 1st W=$14.00
9 - Nutcracker : Honest 1400M runner who is well drawn and will race handy. Think some of these are smarter than him, but think he is a rough chance with the right run here. Looks better suited back to the 1400M here and right in this if some rain comes. Form through last run holds up. Rough.

Sacking:
4 - Arrabeaa : Well drawn. Will improve if gets back on firm ground, but can't have on 2 runs down here and potential wet track again.
5 - Dynamic Love : Will probably get a cosy lead so rough place chance, but had every opportunity here last week. No 3rd W=$22.40
6 - Forest Jim : Think the bubble had burst on this guy. Drawn out is a plus cause better with room in running and does go well fresh but prefer to see how he comes up this time in. No
8 - Mr Gold Flyer : Well drawn to get soft on pace run and handles it wet if the rain comes. Disappointing at Cranbourne and gone off him a bit since he threw that race away at Caulfield. Had a freshen, so may have had a problem, but prefer to let him run.
10 - Panaromic Lad : Well drawn. 2^nd up and up 200M and will get well back from inside barrier here. No
11 - Court of Jewels : Nice run 1^st up. 2^nd up here, up 200M, drawn out and likely to drift back in slowly run race does not appeal. Needs it firm too.
12 - FlyingPig : Largely unknown Nzer who was in the market first up but did nothing. Watch market, but want to wait till we see some form. No
13 - Gunnel : Drawn a tricky barrier 1 and likely to drift back here - sydney form nothing flash and leaving out here.
14 - Siri Nelg : Never wins. Last win was Dec 200, before that Nov 97. Nov 97 was the last time we had anything on him, and not going to change that now.
15 - Typhoon Barney : Loves the Flem 1400M 9 starts and 6 placings. Should be fitter for the 3 runs in and did run home OK at Geelong. Outside draw and will drift back, so maybe rough place chance at very best.

Summary: Good 1400M welter with horses we know and can bet with confidence. Flem 1400M and want to get on on pacers well drawn. There is no genuine leader here, so one of the on pacers, probably 5-Dynamic Love or 8-Mr Gold Flyer will set the tempo, but it is going to be a slowly run race suiting those racing handy. A lot again is going to depend on when the rain comes and if they are spreading wide in the straight (allowing for clear runs). We have tipped 4 - just in case 2 - Super Impressive gets the run in the Emirates so we can elevate the others - keen to be on him in either race, 7 - The Pumper the main danger, and the value runner here with the on pace sit is 9-Nutcracker. Very keen to bet in these sort of races.

Results : Another good value winner in the last, just to show off. Super Impressive still worth folllwing, opened too short and had to be used up from inside barrier to try and get to better part of track.

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Stakes Day Tips (10/11/2001)

Race 2 4 - Nessuno 2 - Bel Esprit 8 - Emitella	Race 6 6 - Le Zagaletta 1 - Show a Heart SCR 12 - Aka Bilk
Race 3 13 - Slyvaner 11 - La Zoffany SCR 5 - Piper Star	Race 7 4 - Burleigh 9 - The A Train 8 - Merlin's Law
Race 4 11 - Prosecution 13 - Mutli Bonza 14 - Orin	Race 8 3 - Danyon 7 - Padfoot Charlie 6 - Touch The Groom
Race 5 14 - Little Dozer 2 - Pembleton 16 - Kashkii	Race 9 2 - Super Impressive 7 - The Pumper 9 - Nutcracker

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Stakes Day Results (10/11/2001)

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Stakes Day Preview (10/11/2001)

Stakes Day is great because it marks the return of the seasoned punter who can return and claim the race track as their own from the thronging masses. Melbourne Cup week has just got too big for its own boots and those who ventured to Oaks Day would have quite enjoyed the time they spent lining up to get in, lining up to get a drink, lining up to use the bathroom, lining up to get some food, lining up to place a bet, lining up to get the phone number of the girl in the red dress and lining up to go home again. Which is always good practice for any time you need to go to the bank, but still does make for a hard day's work.

Cup Day saw 90,000 people willing to fork out $30+ to sit on damp grass, in continuing drizzle, under some flimsy plastic sheeting in their Sunday finest. You really don't need much in the way of marketing when you have an event that promotes itself like that. The breakdown of Cup figures has just come through :

Crowd Breakdown :500 nuns (up 21 on last year)
34 gorillas (down 19 on last year)
10 fairys,
23 guys in drag,
3 arabs,
2 Two Person Horse Costumes,
8 Big Brother Housemates,
1 Tim Webster

Although it was good to see more nuns returning to the races, the drop off in gorillas is a real concern and the VRC really needs to look at incentive programs to get more gorillas back to the races. As for Tim Webster, well, he just seems to turn up and there is not much that can be done about it.

The Tips :
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Its been a lean hard week for Turf Deli's tips. The Betting Portfolio got back around $20 on an each way bet on Thursday, but with just 2 weeks to go we need to get a move on if we are going to keep the scoreboard clicking over. For the record our form before Cup week was actually quite good, all this rain must be dulling the sixth sense (being the punting nose for value).

Stakes (main race)
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19-Super Impressive(emerg),
6-Le Zagaletta,
1- Show a Heart,
12 - Aka Bilk