Tips, feature race preview and suggested bets for Caulfield Underwood Stakes 21/09/2024.
Bit of rain around Friday and a few showers Saturday but this track has still came up as a GOOD(4). Regardless, expecting they will probably be coming off the rails here, especially later in the day and more so if solid rain comes. We seem to have a lot more short priced favourites this spring than usual and this program is really missing the Rupert Clarke Stakes as a wide-open and interesting betting race. Some small fields early in the day but should be some value later on in the feature races.
For Spring Campaign 2024 we will be posting tips around 10am on a Saturday morning (earlier if time allows for feature meetings). Feature race preview at the bottom of this post.
BEST WIN: Race 3: 1-SASSY BOOM $5 WIN
Mare with a class turn of foot who was disappointing here first-up, but she did need to work hard and early there to take the lead. Was a windy day and was hard to jump and lead so entirely a forgive run. Small field suits her for a sit and sprint and drop them type and happy to back again today at around $5 straight out.
BEST EACH WAY Race 4: 6-DECLICHY BOULEVARD $4 EW
Taking this one on-spec a bit off Sydney form, but she has been a strong finisher in her runs and like that with many of these out the 1400M for the first time. Took off early and mid-race last start and left vulnerable late, but looks to have some ability and may run over the top of them late here at around $10.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 12-REY MAGNERIO $4 EW, QUINELLA 12-REY MAGNERIO#7,10,11 x $3 = 100%
We love Rey and happy to keep following him as looks a progressive sprinter on the rise. Form was tapering off end of last campaign, but he should be nice and ready to do something first-up today off a break. Strong finishing sprinter with a great turn of foot, like that he has drawn wide here to get a clear run into the race and just needs the speed to be fast enough and the track allowing them to run on and win. Back each way at around $6 and anchor in a quinella with the leader the 10-JUNGLE JIM who looks value and may control the speed in this, the favourite the 11-COMMEMORATIVE and the value runner in the 7-CROSSHAVEN who is better back on firm ground.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 10-DUKE DE SESSA $3 EW
Fit and in-form runner in the feature race, who probably does need to put an Australian win on the board, but has struck a winnable race today. Can go forward and should get a perfect sit here and race fitness may make the difference in a big field of early spring stayers. Each way at around $18.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 12-SERGEANT MAJOR $4 EW
Hard to line up the 3YOs on the rise and most of these are some winning chance, but really liked the run of this one last start. Got a solid whack from another runner just before the home turn, but still came out and looped around them and hit the line really strongly. Out to the 1400M looks ideal today and should be strong at the end of the distance. Each way at around $9.
BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 11-FUTURE HISTORY $2 EW
Always a plus to be up on the speed in these big fields of early spring stayers, and this one may be getting back to his best form this spring. Likely to control the speed here with the 9-GEAR UP whilst the rest of the field are trying to build momentum, and like the way he railed through here last start when looked the winner but just seemed to run out of fitness late. Good value on-speed roughie at around $16 and box up a quinella in the Turf Deli Wonder bet below in a big even field. on the hardest to beat the improving 16-IMMEDIACY and the 9-GEAR UP as the other on-speed runner.
BEST ROUGH: Race 10: 1-SENONEE $1.50 EW
There is a bit of depth to this field but the betting market seems very focussed on the first few in betting. This one is a drop back strong finishing type who prefers further than 1200M, but did run third this track and distance 1st up last time in and like that she has drawn wide to swoop end of the day if they go fast enough up front. Rough at around $20.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 4: 1-SILMARILLION at around $3
Coming off a good win at Moonee Valley, but really got the perfect run there and not sure he was that impressive winning as a short priced favourite. This field is probably stronger and goes out to the 1400M which he has yet to prove himself at. Suspect one of the others here steps up and wins out to the distance. Risking
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 10: 4-RED CARD at around $5
Going to double up with the Lay of the Day here, just because we can’t believe punters are coming for this one again. Beaten favourite here in both Caulfield 1200M runs at $1.40 and $3.90 (when we laid him both times), and 1200M is a real distance query for this one. Probably leads here but likely to fade late and happy to take him on again.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a new couch for the Rupert Clarke Stand.
QUINELLA Race 7: 5, 9,11,14,16 boxed x $5 = 50%
Wide open staying race and plenty of value around so lets try and box up a quinella with the two on-speed chances the 11-FUTURE HISTORY and 9-GEAR UP, the promising 16-IMMEDIACY, the 14-POSIVITY looking to go on this spring and the 5-BANKERS CHOICE who has been good both starts this time in.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 7,8,9,10: 1,5,9,11,14,16 / 2,10,11 / 3,5,6,12 / 1,6,8 x $20 = 9.3%
Going wide in an open first leg and hoping for value kick off, just the selections in the second leg, worthy putting some value runners in the third leg and probably either the 6-A LITTLE DEEP, 8-EXTRATWO wins the last, but should be some double figure winners there somewhere to make it worthwhile.
Feature Race Preview:
For the Underwood Stakes, outside of the two favourites it’s a pretty even field and there isn’t much between these so an unlikely result is entirely possible. The speed here should be genuine, the 12-DENY KNOWLEDGE loves to burn out to a long lead, question is how hard they will want to go first-up today. The 8-BUCKEROO should also push forward, and the 2-PERICLES, 6-BOIS D’ARGENT and 10-DUKE DE SESSA should settle in right behind them and most of the rest of the field are drop back types earlier in their preparation so might not pressure the speed much. Maybe 1-VOW AND DECLARE can also go forward here from an outside barrier if they are serious about winning today. Something sitting up on the speed can probably pinch this given the race tempo.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-VOW AND DECLARE is a grand old campaigner who keeps his best form for dry tracks and also for Flemington. Coming off a successful QLD campaign which showed he still had what it takes and he worked home pretty well here last start given the leaders a long head-start. If the track comes up better side of SOFT he is a genuine chance at odds here, he is the proven WFA stayer, he can roll forward if they want and settle 3rd or 4th and probably has some residual fitness off the winter. Interesting to note he ran 2nd in the Peter Young here this track and distance in the Autumn. May still need one more for peak, but likely to run in the first few and elevate him on a dry track. Rough.
2-PERICLES looks the one to beat on form, and never looked in danger at MV coming off a good first-up run here. Likely to go forward and settle handy and give himself every chance and has form and race fitness over most of the field here and looking to go on this spring. Has been kept to 1600M and under since this 3YO season and can question if those are his best distances. Interesting to note he is not nominated for the Caulfield Cup (unlike most of these), but he is for the Cox Plate. So needs to stamp himself today as a genuine contender past 1600M. Has the class to win given the right run, but wouldn’t want a solid staying test.
3-MUNHAMEK seems to have been racing most weekends this year without a break (this is start 14 and been in work since February). Continues to be competitive in everything he contests and got into the wrong spot last start and came home well late. Does want the track to stay on the firmer side and past 1600M is a query for him. Worth noting he did loom into the race like the winner here two starts back, and like he was going to run over the top of them - and didn’t finish it off. Run on track would suit, but barrier 1 and dropping back might be an issue, and think those proven over more ground probably run over him today.
4-HUETOR is a tough proven WFA performer who normally needs a few runs to show his best. Rarely comes to Melbourne and best form is over 2000M and more. Hard to see him being a factor here, heading towards the Caulfield Cup and having a warm up run today. No
5-KOVALICA SCRATCHED
6-BOIS D’ARGENT might be a little under-rated and has a pretty good win and place strike rate. Thrived on a tough staying campaign last time in and would appreciate if we got a wet track here today. Ran an excellent race at $100 in the Caulfield Cup last year. Well drawn and will go forward and race handy so probably won’t be that far off in the finish, but likely to need a run or two and more distance. Rough place only.
7-FAWKNER PARK is a stayer with class who is a genuine chance for the Caulfield Cup. Does drop back but can make a long sustained run at them and has a pretty good turn of foot from back in the field normally. Drawn inside barrier though is probably an issue here and this is his first time at Caulfield too. Has the dash to win this if ready, maybe watch the market but suspect prefer to be on him later on in this spring. Risking.
8-BUCKAROO is race fit and in winning form which is a big plus here. Went aggressively forward last start and is normally ridden quieter back in the field, but apart from the leader there isn’t much speed in this so you would think they go forward and get the perfect sit into the race. Worth noting it was a strong leader bias last start when won in Sydney and was ridden to the racing pattern. Would need to step up a bit, but might be ready now and would need to prove the form from last start. Winnable race today and chance.
9-KNIGHT’S CHOICE is a tough QLD stayer who was right in the finish of everything he contested over winter. Another who will probably need the run and will be better over more ground, but think he might be a horse on the career improve and might run a race at odds today. Rough chance, good roughie for exotics.
10-DUKE DE SESSA is fit and has been racing well, and he should be ready to win now with the four runs in from a spell. Got involved in a two horse war here last start and buckled late, but he can go forward here and get a perfect run here with race fitness on his side. Was held up for runs at MV the start before so form is better than it looks. Bit of give in the ground suits and he ran some useful races last spring. Probably hasn’t lived up to his reputation in Australia, but he strikes a very winnable race here today and like that he will go forward and has race fitness over most of these. Strong chance.
11-PLACE DU CARROUSEL sounds like a novelty French restaurant, but is apparently a serious Caulfield Cup chance. Apparently cost $6 million to come down under. Given one campaign here and showed some form and would think will come back even better. Looks forward with the jump out and isn’t meeting much here. Normally we are happy to take these types on and let them run so we can see how they go, but market money is there and might have the class here. Strong chance.
12-DENY KNOWLEDGE knows only one speed and that is full throttle to the lead and sometimes she can over race and really run away from them. She is best on dry ground and always think it is hard for leaders to jump and win over distance when they are 1st up, they normally need a few runs to get race fitness. Would probably need a leaders track to be a factor here and that is unlikely. Passing.
13-COCO SUN is a good staying 4YO mare who worked home well here last start. 2nd up and up 400M in distance and do wonder if she will need this one as well. Well drawn and should be able to settle in just behind them and should get every chance. Quite capable of winning this, but not sure we want to back her, although she is the runner with upside here.
Summary:
This is basically a Caulfield Cup warm-up, with 1-VOW AND DECLARE, 4-HUETOR, 7-FAWKNER PARK, 8-BUCKAROO, 6-BOIS D’ARGENT, 9-KNIGHT’S CHOICE, 10-DUKE DE SESSA, 11-PLACE DU CARROUSEL,12-DENY KNOWLEDGE, 13-COCO SUN all entered and most of them well into the final field. Which leaves 2-PERICLES and 3-MUNHAMEK as the odd two out today. This does raise the question how forward some of these will be as they kick off their spring campaigns. We are going to push for an upset here with the 10-DUKE DE SESSA with race fitness on his side and getting a perfect on-speed sit into the race, will need the right run but can win this. Respect for the well favoured international 11-PLACE DU CARROUSEL who might have the class to come over the top of them and 2-PERICLES with a winning form edge. Value runner here is the 9-KNIGHT’S CHOICE at long odds, who might be a horse that continues to go on this spring. Happy to have something each-way on the top pick.
Race 1: 14-FLAMIN’ ROMANS, 12-CORONA LAD, 15-WHISKY ON THE HILL
Race 2: 5-LE ZEBRA, 11-FEDERER, 4-REGAL ZEUS
Race 3: 1-SASSY BOOM, 3-POIFECT, 2-LOVAZOU
Race 4: 6-DECLICHY BOULEVARD, 4-TOO DARN LIZZIE, 9-HURRICANE GEORGIE
Race 5: 3-ANOTHER WILL, 7-JIMMY THE BEAR, 1-BUFFALO RIVER
Race 6: 12-REY MAGNERIO, 10-JUNGLE JIM, 11-COMMEMORATIVE
Race 7: 11-FUTURE HISTORY, 16-IMMEDIACY, 9-GEAR UP
Race 8: 10-DUKE DE SESSA, 11-PLACE DU CARROUSEL, 2-PERICLES
Race 9: 12-SERGEANT MAJOR, 5-WANARUAH, 3-EPIMELES
Race 10: 6-A LITTLE DEEP, 8-EXTRATWO, 1-SENONEE
