Fine sunny weather heading into post Grand Final Sunday and we should be looking at a GOOD track which might see some form reversals. Great that Sandown gets to be part of the Spring Carnival though it probably deserves to have the Zipping Classic run here as well seeing it was a feature of the race getting that name. Just compare the size of the fields and the depth of racing and the racing patterns between the two feature meetings this weekend, Moonee Valley Friday night and Sandown Sunday to see why we need to keep Sandown for racing. Sandown Hillside, rail TRUE and every horse should get its chance, especially strong finishers down the long straight.
Seriously tough punting program with capacity fields for most of the day and then coming home with a stack of good horses running in the last few races. All of these suggested bets are at odds of around $10 or better so we don’t need to have that much on them and there should be some value wide quinellas in big fields.
Small field for the feature Underwood Stakes and the only speed is the 3-ALLIGATOR BLOOD who controls the tempo here.
Runner by runner comments:
1-ZAAKI is obviously the one to beat, he is probably more susceptible these days then this time last year and the gloss has gone off a bit, but still a very hard horse to beat. Best runs are when he gets to control the tempo, so will be interesting to see if they go forward and challenge 3-ALLIGATOR BLOOD as think this one is bit vulnerable in a sit sprint race.
2-I’M THUNDERSTRUCK has put in two outstanding runs this time in and was a super effort to run down the leader who had effectively pinched the race last start. Only run past 1600M was 2000M on a heavy track so hard to decide if he runs out the distance, he does need a solid tempo though in his races and not sure he gets it here. Sandown long straight might even that out though?
3-ALLIGATOR BLOOD is the clear leader here, firm track suits and was unlucky not to hold on last start. Another out to 1800M for the first time, and twice over 1600M he has looked the winner and been nailed on the post (but also by two extraordinary runs). Probably wants to sit and slow them up here and control the tempo, question is what the racing pattern is and if the others will let him do that. Just that concern that 1600M is as far as he wants and he might be vulnerable at the end of the race.
4-MR BRIGHTSIDE just seems to be a top line horse on the way up and think you always want to jump on these and follow them through. Mixed it with these in the Blamey and the All Star Mile and wasn’t beaten far and think he may have improved further since then. Sensational win in the Feehan, and although out to the 1800M for the first time, just think he is the one who is most versatile when it comes to race tempo. The others probably are slightly better on form, but instinct is this is the one to follow today.
5-MO’UNGA is a very smart miler who returned to form last start and suited on dry ground. Runs past 1600M in the Mackinnon and Cox Plate have been even and he has fought hard to the line. He is probably over the odds here at $20 onto a dry track with a long straight, but does seem held by the top four on recent form.
6-NONCONFORMIST is doing warm-ups for the Caulfield Cup, but the step up in distance and dry track suits. Can maybe go forward, will probably end up beating a runner home, but unlikely to be in the finish against these at WFA.
Summary
Very little between the top three here 4-MR BRIGHTSIDE, 2-I’M THUNDERSTRUCK, 1-ZAAKI and not sure this is a race we really want to bet into, but will be a great tactical race to watch. We are going to stick with the 4-MR BRIGHTSIDE, just think he is more versatile and adaptable to whatever racing tempo evolves and he looks like he could be an extremely good horse on the way up.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 1: 13-PICARONES $3 EW
QUINELLA: Race 1: 1,4,10,13,16 boxed x $5 = 50%
Open first race but this one has been racing extremely well and should be ready to win now with the two runs this time in. First up she ran on well hard against the inside here which was the worse ground and last start was battling the finish right out and lunging again on the line. Firm track suits, and although only won 1 from 10 normally contests higher grade races in her previous preparations. Each way at around $10 and there is likely to be a value quinella dividend in the first as there are a few roughies with good chances, the 10-DELICIOUS TYCOON has had a freshen up off good Sandown wet track form, the 1-RUMBLED AGAIN is one we are following and has ability and may go on this preparation, she is top weight but this is a compressed weight scale, ran on well here last start and ready to do something now at $51, the 16-INDENTED HEAD normally isn’t far away and the leader 4-SAVONIA.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 8-YUKON $4 EW
Recent Sydney form is sound and best form is over the longer distance here, and most importantly he can go forward here from an inside barrier in a big field of stayers where luck may come into it. Might just be a little query late over the distance down the long Sandown straight, but should get a good run for your money at around $13.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 15-PRINCE OF HELENA $4 EW
Another capacity field, but this one is just about always around the money (placed 21/26 starts) and is just as good on top of the ground. Well drawn and can go forward and make his own luck and like that he is at the bottom of the weights with the additional plus of an apprentice claim. Wide open race, but worth something each way at around $16.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 8-TYPHOON TITMUS $3 EW
QUINELLA: Race 6: 1,4,7,8,10 boxed x $5 = 50%
Wide open field of 3YO fillies and there are a stack of long shot roughies in this race. This one was a black booker from a blanket finish at Flemington, was held up for a run at a crucial stage and had to slide across runners into the clear and hit the line really well and probably should have won. Well drawn today and out to the 1400M for the first time should suit, have to say think she is probably a little under the odds at $7 in a 20 horse field though. Back each way and box up a wide quinella with the classy 4-WALTZ ON BY who looks hard to beat, the strong finishing 1-REVOLUTIONARY MISS who has been scratched a few times waiting for a dry track and has run in better races than most of these, and two crazy roughies, the 7-STREET DELIGHT at $70 whose Adelaide form is good and led and kicked clear early here last start before finishing on the run and will have improvement to come and yes, even the rank outsider of the field the 10-ZOE’S PROMISE at $100 who will go forward here and has run some tough races on-speed in town last preparation.
BEST ROUGH: Race 2: 2-BEEHUNTER $1.50 EW
Perpetually unlucky horse who keeps dropping back and running into trouble whilst running on late but he gets a lot of ticks today, Sandown, big track, dry ground, 1400M and a big field with a strong speed. The 1000M last start was way too short and much better suited here. Could today actually be his day? We normally steer well clear of this one but could see him running a race today at around $20
BEST ROUGH: Race 4: 12-THE WIZARD KING $2 EW
Awful lot of fun backing this one, last two starts he has run out to a long lead and fought on really well including last week at Flemington. Probably better suited on a wet track and hard to lead over the Sandown Hillside 1400M, but in a smaller field here with lots of scratchings he should get an clear and easy lead and might give them a bit of a scare early on in the straight. Little roughie bet at $31 and outsider of the field.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 1: 5-CAP DE JOIE at around $3.50
Import who has been impressive in two wet track wins in Australia, but now goes onto a dry track, dropping back in distance and drawn barrier 20. Might be good enough to overcome all that, but in a field this size would much rather back something at odds than back a favourite at $3.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into enough to buy Sandown and keep it for racing.
$5 ALL UP
PLACE: Race 2: 15-SANDY PRINCE
PLACE: Race 3: 8-YUKON
PLACE: Race 5: 15-PRINCE OF HELENA
PLACE: Race 9: 6-OPEN MINDED
Pretty tough day for an All UP Place bet in big fields, but basically we really want to be on the Race 9: 6-OPEN MINDED to place in the last leg up against some smart ones. Fitter for the two runs in, onto a dry track and leading for the first time this preparation. So we just need to find our way into the last leg with the consistent Race 2 15-SANDY PRINCE to kick off the bet and Race 3 8-YUKON, Race 5 5-PRINCE OF HELENA being around the finish someone to score $500 for a $5 outlay.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 6,7,8,9: 1,4,6,7,8,10,14 / 1,2,4 / 5,11,12 / 1,4,6 x $20 = 10.5%
This is an extremely lopsided quaddie, really there are three class horses who will fight out the finish in the last three legs, and are very hard to split. So best we can do is load up the first leg with the likes of roughies 6-BERRY BUBBLY, 7-STREET DELIGHT, 10-ZOE’S PROMISE and hope for a result else the dividend is unlikely to be worth it.
Race 1: 13-PICARONES, 10-DELICIOUS TYCOON, 1-RUMBLED AGAIN
Race 2: 15-SANDY PRINCE, 2-BEEHUNTER, 12-CHARTRES
Race 3: 8-YUKON, 12-GROOVY KINDA LOVE, 4-GLOBAL GIFT
Race 4: 12-THE WIZARD KING, 7-BANK MAUR, 13-WHO DARES
Race 5: 15-PRINCE OF HELENA, 16-LUCKY DECISION, 11-THOUGHT OF THAT
Race 6: 8-TYPHOON TITMUS, 4-WALTZ ON BY, 1-REVOLUTIONARY MISS
Race 7: 4-MR BRIGHTSIDE, 2-I’M THUNDERSTRUCK, 1-ZAAKI
Race 8: 11-PINSTRIPED, 12-GENTLEMAN ROY, 5-DRAGON LEAP
Race 9: 1-AYRTON, 6-OPEN MINDED, 4-I WISH I WIN
