Warm weather during the week but the rain forecast Friday night didn’t come through and they had to water the track. Forecast was for rain and a wet track race day, no sign of that at the moment, so hastily adjusting form for a firmer track, even if the rain does come it doesn’t look like it is going to be as substantial as anticipated. Really hard to read where we are going to land with the track conditions. Rail out 9M means they will be coming off the fence in the straight if we got a wet track and runners on would get their chance, but if track stays firm they should stay closer to the rails. Outside rail will be fastest down the straight though probably not that much difference on a dry track. This looks a good betting program (once we short out what is happening with the bloody rain) we should see the horses starting to step up for spring today and some good quality horses going around.
Fair bit to bet on today so doubling the Betting Portfolio up to $100. For Spring Campaign 2024 we will be posting tips around 10am on Saturday morning (earlier if time allows). Feature race preview at the bottom of this post.
BEST BET: Race 4: 3-DECLICHY BOULEVARD
QUINELLA: Race 4: 3-DECLICHY BOULEVARD, 7-TOO DARN DISCREET x $5 = 500%
QUINELLA: Race 4: 3-DECLICHY BOULEVARD, 6-COMANCHE MISS x $5 = 500%
We tipped this one last time and she stormed home late to just miss, but she looks to be a good filly on the way up. Up to 1600M should suit and just really liked the turn of foot she showed last start and with only 5 starts she seems to be improving with each run. Odds of $2 is way too short though for a bet, so instead take a quinella with the 7-TOO DARN DISCREET who has talent but still does a few things wrong and the 6-COMANCHE MISS who was good late here last start.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 1: 13-ZEBELLA $5 EW, QUINELLA 5,8,12,13 boxed x $6 = 100%
The favourite the 5-MOBY DICK was very impressive winning last start flying through late along the inside and is going to be pretty hard to beat here, but liking the each way odds about this Adelaide visitor. Been racing really well over there and big plus is that she jumps and goes forward and there doesn’t seem to be that much speed down the straight here. If the middle to outside is faster, she can probably control the speed here at around $9. Good value quinella with the other leader the straight and dry track specialist the 8-PRINZERRO and there is a good roughie here at massive odds the 12-TITAN OF CHOICE who ran on well down the straight last start and is capable of getting into the finish running on late.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 3-GIDDY UP WARRIOR $7.50 EW
This is always a tricky race with the 3YOs stepping out to distance and lots of form lines and horses on the improve as they get out to the right distance. Most of the field are coming off country wins or maidens, where as this one has been racing in town last few starts and been very competitive. Hit the lead about 200M out here last start and swamped by swoopers late (which was the racing pattern that day). Can sit on-speed and run into the race at the right time, some of these others probably have more staying potential but think they won’t go that fast here and this one can pinch this race. Each way at around $10.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 9-MOSTLY CLOUDY $5 EW
Consistent stayer who is usually thereabouts, but doesn’t win as often as he should. Does tend to drop back and come home a bit too late. Firm track is a big plus for this one. Fitter for the two runs in which have both been competitive and was strong late on unsuitable wet ground here last start. Probably needs to settle mid-field or better in such a big field, because dropping back will probably be asking for trouble. Looks set for this race and ready to do something. Each way at around $9.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 14-RIGHT TO PARTY $10 EW, QUINELLA 9,11,12,14 boxed x $6 = 100%
This one seems to absolutely love the straight and has been launching late in three most recent wins here. Was in the finish last start but just didn’t show her normal pounce, suspect the heavy track was a factor there and she didn’t totally let down. Looks well suited here and happy to back each way at around $5. Nice value quinella with the main danger the 12-JOHNNY ROCKER who has talent and looks ready to do something here third-up, the 9-CROSSHAVEN at big odds who has good Flemington form but just needs to get a dry track and the 11-STRETAN ANGEL who would be right in this on her best form. This is the main bet of the day.
BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 10-YOUNG WERTHER $3 EW
We honestly never, ever, ever back this one (including when he started favourite in the VRC Derby), but he is a dry track and Flemington horse and he may get everything he desires today. Seems to have got more consistent in recent preparations and was contesting the top tier races for a while, but seems to have found a nice niche. Meets a very beatable field today, big plus is that he can jump and sit handy in a big field of stayers and as long as the track stays dry he should be completive here at around $11 (was a $20 roughie when we wrote this up Friday night, but with a firm track odds have halved).
BEST ROUGH: Race 10: 11-FORTUNATE KISS $3 EW, QUINELLA 4,5,10,11 boxed x $6 = 100%
Very even mares feature race, and this one is constantly around the finish in these sorts of races but she just doesn’t have the best luck a lot of the time. Competitive at this level, and fitter for the 3 runs in and like that she is drawn out in a bit of space as she knows how to find trouble. Was strong late here last start and worth noting all those around her fought out the MV mares black type race last Friday night, so the form has held up. Back each way at around $20 and box up a quinella with the strong finishing 4-SKYBIRD, the 10-RUNNING BY who will improve back on a dry track and the consistent on-speed 5-WROTE TO ARATAKI.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 3: 2-SERGEANT MAJOR at around $3.20
We tipped this one last start in the Guineas Prelude and thought he was pretty plain, coming off a promising and unlucky run at MV the start prior. Yes punters, you should always forgive them one bad run, but this is always a tricky race with lots of improving 3YOs up in distance and normally want to take on the favourite here regardless.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a new outfit for Cup Week.
TRIFECTA: Race 8: 3.6 / 3,6,8,10,13 / 3,6,7,8,10,13,14 x $5 = 12.5%
Behind the favourite runners in the feature race it’s a wide open field and good chance one or more at odds will lob into the finish and make for a healthy trifecta dividend.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 7,8,9,10: 6,9,10,15,16 / 3,6,8 / 12,14 / 4,5,9,10,11 x $20 = 13.33%
Pretty keen to have a crack at the quaddie today, although you probably want to go as wide as you can in an open first leg. Narrow it down to the main chances in the feature race, and pretty confident we can anchor the 14-RIGHT TO PARTY, 12-JOHNNY ROCKER in third leg which means we can come home on a few value runners in the last leg.
Feature Race Preview:
Below par field for the Turnbull Stakes with most runners being stayers doing warm-up laps and a real shortage of fit and in form runners. In a big field with a lot of muddling stayers being on-speed and having a turn of foot should be a real advantage. Speed should be the 14-DUKE DE SESSA going forward again, the 6-ELIYASS should be able to cross from an outside barrier without too much fuss, the 2-BOIS D’ARGENT will settle handy and looks like the 10-YOUNG WERTHER is going to get a pretty good run here on-speed and just behind them. Most of the rest don’t show much speed so we are unlikely to get much pressure up front in this.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-CIRCLE OF FIRE is an international import doing warm-up laps for the Melbourne Cup. Had a breakout first Australian season (and so many of these imports don’t live up to their form) winning a Chairman’s and a Sydney Cup. Did nothing first-up here in the Makybe Diva, but really wasn’t expected to. Almost certainly will need a few runs and distance to strike form. No.
2-BOIS D’ARGENT is an under-rated stayer who ran 4th at $100 in the Caulfield Cup last year and caused a boil over in the Doomben Cup. Was consistently around the money last time in work and big plus with this one is that he can jump and sit on speed and make his own luck. Did little first-up, but give in the ground today will suit and not sure there is that much speed here so he actually may run better than the $100 odds suggest. Rough place chance.
3-BUCKAROO comes into this race with fitness and form, something most of this field do not have. Had a couple of preparations in Australia without really doing much. Wasn’t sure the Sydney win meant that much two starts back as he was ridden forward to suit the track pattern, but he came out last start and totally thrashed them and looks like he may go on to better things this spring. Gets a pretty similar setup here to the Underwood, drawn to settle midfield and just off them, coming off rails and drawn middle to get out to the middle of the track and he may be going better than most of these. Looks the one to beat.
4-VIA SISTINA has a big reputation but seems to be racking up the excuses. PRIDE OF JENNI went too fast for her in the Queen Elizabeth, and track was too wet here last start when she was a well beaten favourite. Tough win 1st up this time in when she surprised at $11 (worth noting she has also been beaten at $1.85 and $2.60 previously). Jockey has said she has very little early speed so likely to end up out the back here caught up in between runners. Substantial rain would be an issue. Maybe watch the market to see if punters are game to get involved. She does have the class to beat these, not sure she is a punting proposition till we see a dominant win to really frank her form, so prefer to risk her today.
5-WARMONGER could be one of the stars of the spring and was really strong chasing to the line here last start. Took a few runs last time in to really hit form and has probably matured and likely to improve further this spring. Suited getting out to the middle of the track and running on late. Main question may be if they go fast enough here, big field and not sure there is that much speed so he may be giving a few a big head start here. Have to respect talent and ability though and has more upside than these. Chance.
6-ELIYASS is an in-form Sydney stayer who has the big plus of race fitness and winning form against most of these. Drawn wide here and does like to go forward and settle handle, but can’t imagine they will have that much difficulty doing that here. Has won all three Australian starts and may be a little under rated. Won 7/7 over the 2000M too and dry or wet track doesn’t seem to really matter. Up in class but looks very competitive against these.
7-ATISHU is a Flemington specialist who did nothing last start here where jockey said she doesn’t seem to handle heavy tracks anymore (she did early on in her career). Track won’t get that bad here, so we need to work out if she has just lost her form or has had genuine excuses. Well drawn and she has a better turn of foot than most of these which will be a plus in a slowly run race. Not quite convinced you can back her with any confidence, but on her best form she would win this so would probably want to keep her safe.
8-HUETOR is a tough QLD stayer who tends to drop a long way back in his races Good career win strike rate and is capable against this level of field. Was excellent first-up when started long odds and was suited by the run on race pattern, but made really good ground and went past the rest of the field except the winner. Well drawn, fitter for the run, 2000M record is excellent and bit surprised he is going around at $31 coming off such a good run last start. Chance.
9-SHARP’N’SMART is a smart stayer who we saw in Australia for his 3YO season and he really didn’t miss by much here in the VRC Derby when run down late. Bit hard to line up the NZ heavy track form he is probably better on good ground and should be ready to do something three runs in from a spell and out to a suitable 2000M. Has gone 1200M, 1600M and out to 2000M today so might still need this run to find best. Watch the market on this one as right in this race on best form.
10-YOUNG WERTHER seems to have been around forever, but seems to be getting more consistent with age as well. Always had him listed as a Flemington horse but he seems a bit more versatile these days. Was a tough win last start as the other one had race fitness on him and yet he managed to clear away in a two horse battle. Inside barriers are good for him, he likes to lob on-speed and keep going. Does seem to prefer a dry track though and does look like we are going to get a bit of rain. On a dry track lobbing on-speed he would be right in this, wet track and the field coming off the rails he will be making his run in the worse going. Looks to get the run of the race here and a winning chance depending on the track conditions.
11-FRANCESCO GUARDI has been plugging away OK in three runs in from a spell, but he is looking for more distance and a handicap. Well held in this race last race in a stronger field. Got a long way back in a leader dominated race last start at Caulfield and had to loop the field and make a long sustained run and stuck on pretty well. Not sure inside barrier at the back of the field here is a plus. Rough place only.
12-PLACE DU CAROUSEL is one we fell into last start as a first start in Australia import (and we never normally get sucked into runners we haven’t seen), coming off a good trial, but really did very little. Started favourite at Caulfield at $4, interesting that she is going around at $14 today and the market still isn’t that interested. Trial was good, but probably need to see some race form before getting involved.
13-BANKER’S CHOICE is really hard to catch, but he seems to like wet tracks, and distance and running on late down the outside and he may get conditions to suit today drawn the outside barrier. Would probably want the track worse side of SOFT. First two runs this time in weren’t too bad and he was running on nicely, happy to forgive the run on a firm track last start. Always seems to take a few runs in each time to find form, and doesn’t strike the strongest opposition here so actually think he is a genuine rough chance at around $70, but will need the rain to come. Rough.
14-DUKE DE SESSA just hasn’t lived up to expectations and continues to go around and be competitive, but well held by a few each time. Really thought with race fitness on his side he would have outlasted the (10) two starts back at Caulfield, but he didn’t. Set the tempo in the Underwood but was always well covered after they had turned for home. May be better with a bit of give in the ground. Drawn well and likely to go forward here, but he has just had every chance the last two starts. Prefer place.
15-KNIGHT’S CHOICE ran some great races at long odds over the QLD winter and could be one who improves this spring as he is still relatively lightly raced. Specked at odds last start at Caulfield and didn’t do much, but he was on the inside worse going so can probably forgive that run. Probably still want to see him again though here.
16-VALIANT KING is the rank outsider who has only had two starts in Australia and coming off a long spell. Little market support suggests will need a few runs to find best form. No
Summary:
Outside the top few chances there isn’t much between these at all and good chance something will get into the finish at odds, improving over distance with a few runs in. Think we need to stick with the form winner the 3-BUCKAROO, he looked with the impressive win last start like he had gone up a notch and can sweep down the middle of the track again here. But not much between him and the in-form Sydneysider the 6-ELIYASS who should be able to go forward here without much drama. On a dry track we would put the 10-YOUNG WERTHER in as a genuine chance and third pick, however it does look like the rain is going to come and that would instead suit the 13-BANKER’S CHOICE at massive odds who has been going along OK this spring and just needs to find the right race on a wet track with runners on winning. The 8-HUETOR the other runner who looks value. From a punting point of view will probably have something on the roughies, and take a wide trifecta with the top two winning chances as there is a good chance something at odds gets into the finish today for some nice exotics.
Race 1: 13-ZEBELLA, 5-MOBY DICK, 12-TITAN OF CHOICE
Race 2: EARLY 2YO RACE. NO BET
Race 3: 3-GIDDY UP WARRIOR, 5-SCARY, 6-KEENELAND
Race 4: 3-DECLICHY BOULEVARD, 7-TOO DARN DISCREET, 6-COMANCHE MISS
Race 5: 4-FIRST SETTLER, 2-BODYGUARD, 9-ENEEZA
Race 6: 5-ARRAN BAY, 9-COMRADE ROSA, 3-JIGSAW
Race 7: 9-MOSTLY CLOUDY, 16-BERKSHIRE BREEZE, 10-POSITIVITY
Race 8: 3-BUCKAROO, 6-ELIYASS, 10-YOUNG WERTHER
Race 9: 14-RIGHT TO PARTY, 12-JOHNNY ROCKER, 9-CROSSHAVEN
Race 10: 4-SKYBIRD, 11-FORTUNATE KISS, 10-RUNNING BY
