 |
It always pays to check out what offers the corporate bookmakers are throwing at you this spring to make the most of your punting dollar. |
|
| FLEMINGTON: TURNBULL STAKES - 4th Oct 2015 |
| Track: GOOD (3) - Weather: SUNNY - Rail: OUT 9M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Burst of summer heading into the weekend in Melbourne and with warm weather and winds forecast for Saturday expect this track to get quite firm, with a hot 30 degree day forecast on Sunday. Last meeting here the rail was TRUE, but they stuck very close to the rails (even down the straight) as the outside section of the course had been worked on. Always be cautious on hot drying days that the racing may tend towards on pacers and suspect those that are hard and fit and racing on the speed are going to be hard to run down today. Daylights savings commences this weekend today, so don’t forget and last train out to Flemington is 12:40 so get a wiggle on if you are still in your pyjamas and reading this on a Sunday morning. Bit of a hot and cold meeting for a bet, few races you wouldn’t touch because they are impossible (Races 4 + 6), a few with short priced favourites, and a few with clear betting picks where you can bet with confidence. Plenty of value around in the feature race too. RESULTS: Track comes up very firm and very little makes ground. Most winners race close to the speed, and down the straight closest to the inside rail is best. We are lucky to get out in the last race on a very tough program. BEST WIN: Race 5: 4-DON’T DOUBT MAMMA $5 WIN X BEST WIN: Race 5: 7-SAILING BY $5 WIN 4th W=$8.20 Think there two are the main winning chances in the Edward Manifold. The (4) seems to be on the way up and has a fantastic finishing burst, really like the way she put them away at Caulfield and the extra distance should suit. The (7) may be the main danger, she was really tough racing on speed against the males last start and fought on well, and will go forward again here and the track may be favouring on pacers. Back both of them straight out at around $6 and think one of them should win. RESULTS: Both pretty disappointing really. The way the track was racing the 7-SAILING BY leading should have been suited, and the 4-DON’T DOUBT MAMMA just doesn't show her finishing burst. BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 7-JESSY BELLE $4 EW 3rd (dead head) W=$5.20 P=$1.00 = $4 QUINELLA: Race 8: 7-JESSY BELLE#1,3,4 x $3 = 100% 3rd 7-JESSY BELLE W=$5.20, X This one has been racing super consistently and is totally over due to break through and get a Group victory. This race looks quite winnable for her, not the strongest field going around, and her last two runs have been excellent when she keeps working home well and not having the best luck. Better suited over the 1400M today and she has won her last 2 starts this track and distance, and just seems to be going better than most of these at the moment. Had 2 months off and now 2 runs back and should be further improvement to come. Looks a safe each way bet at around $5, and back again through the quinellas with the (4) on speed, the (1) who is going well, but drawn wide (again) and the (3). RESULTS: Wide all the way and they just aren't winning out where she is. She is pretty brave and tough to even get this close so good effort under the circumstances. BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: Race 9: 11-WORTHY CAUSE $5 EW 1st W=$7.00, P=$2.50 = $47.50 Pretty open final race of the day with a big field and not much between these. They tried to get this one into the Group 1 Rupert Clarke last week but he didn’t make the field. Lightly raced Brisbane galloper who won 1st up as a short priced favourite and then wasn’t disgraced down the straight last start when he loomed about 200M from home and stuck it out OK. Back to the 1400M here suits a lot better, has drawn a good barrier and can race handy. In a tough race looks a solid each way bet at around $9, but suspect will be well into double figures come race time on the tote. RESULTS: Lucky get out in the last, and just nudges the Betting Portfolio into profit. Jumps and leads and that is the racing pattern and fights it out the whole straight to just win. Lucky! BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 8-WHO SHOT THEBARMAN $5 EW X We have gone for an upset in the feature race and we are keen to have something on this one at around $21. Fitter for the 2 runs in, both of which have been good and he has been hitting the line well, and back onto a dry track. Drawn well and hopefully they will take advantage of that and go forward to sit better than midfield. He really has been pretty consistent in these sort of races for close to a year now and is capable of causing the upset here. Nice value chance at around $21. RESULTS: Ends up back and wide and they are not winning out that far. Fights on OK, fair enough effort. QUINELLA: Race 3: 1-CHAUTAUQUA, 3-CHARLIE BOY x $4 1st 1-CHAUTAUQUA W=$1.20, X The best sprinter in the land the 1-CHAUTAUQUA really should win this. Startling win 1st up when the MV 1000M was always going to be a challenge, but took off around the turn to prove just how good he is. Too short to back though, but we think the only danger – and almost certain 2nd place getter is the 3-CHARLIE BOY who was excellent 1st up at Caulfield with 60kgs when he poked up and hit the lead in the straight before just finding one better. So maybe back that one the place if you are having a bet, but we are going to take a quinella which will probably only pay around $5, but what the heck we had to spend that last $4 somewhere. RESULTS: The favourite gets into a bit of strife and almost gets beaten. Other pick is one of the first horses beaten. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 6: 5-FOUNDRY at around $2.80 10th W=$6.20 Big, big field of totally out of form stayers and hard to show any enthusiasm for this race at all. This one had a full year off before his last 2 runs and he does seem to be improving as they step up in distance. But 3rd up, up 500M and his form his hardly scintillating and he seems to have landed as the short priced favourite here mainly because he is the only one with anything close to any form! Mad to have a serious bet in this race anyway, and even madder to go taking short odds in a capacity field of stayers just because you ran 3rd last start. Happy to risk. RESULTS: This was such a bad bet, and yet we saw quite a few tipsters make this the best of the day. Seriously? Was $2.80 when we sent out the tips, drifts out to $6 come race time - and never gets sighted. Easy lay. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. Race 6: RUNNING DOUBLE: 4,7,10,12,16 / 8, 11 x $5 = 50% 1st 7-LET'S MAKE A DEAL W=$6.10 / X We are totally contradicting ourselves and having a bet in the silly stayers race, but mainly because we want to try and find a double figure winner to launch a running double off, something like the 4-CRAFTY CRUISER down in weights finally would do nicely thanks. If you can find something at odds in that race (and feel free to go wide, very wide) and then run into the 8-WHO SHOT THEBARMAN, 11-AMRALAH as the picks away from the obvious runners in the Turnbull think the dividend should be rather tasty for a small outlay. RESULTS: Got the first leg in, but the 7-LET'S MAKE A DEAL starts a lot shorter than we expected. How many times have we tipped that horse over the last 2 years?? OK approximates in the 2nd leg, but never get warm. SPENT:$50 RETURN:$51.50 NET: $+1.50 |
| The Tips: Race 1: EARLY 2YO RACES. SLEEP IN FOR AN HOUR. Race 2: 6-WELL SIGHTED, 2-TOP ME UP, 3-ONE FOR ONE Race 3: 1-CHAUTAUQUA, 3-CHARLIE BOY, 4-CHURCHILL DANCER Race 4: 17-ASSERTIVE STAR (emerg), 6-ETYMOLOGY, 3-AYERS ROCK, 4-SCADDEN’S RUN Race 5: 4-DON’T DOUBT MAMMA, 7-SAILING BY, 11-SACRED EYE Race 6: 16-WEXFORD TOWN, 4-CRAFTY CRUISER, 10-BOLD SNIPER Race 7: 8-WHO SHOT THEBARMAN, 11-AMRALAH, 15-ALPINE EAGLE Race 8: 7-JESSY BELLE, 4-GIRL GUIDE, 1-HAZARD Race 9: 11-WORTHY CAUSE, 15-LORD ASPEN, 20-ORIENT LINE(emerg), 17-OCTOBER DATE |
 |
|
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-WELL SIGHTED 2-TOP ME UP 3-ONE FOR ONE 1st W=$4.80 |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-CHAUTAUQUA 1st W=$1.20 3-CHARLIE BOY 4-CHURCHILL DANCER |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 17-ASSERTIVE STAR 6-ETYMOLOGY 3-AYERS ROCK 1st W=$18.80 *** Nice Value Winner *** |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-DON’T DOUBT MAMMA 7-SAILING BY 11-SACRED EYE 2nd W=$4.00 |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 16-WEXFORD TOWN 4-CRAFTY CRUISER 10-BOLD SNIPER |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-WHO SHOT THEBARMAN 11-AMRALAH 15-ALPINE EAGLE SCR |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-JESSY BELLE 3rd W=$5.20 4-GIRL GUIDE 1-HAZARD |
| RACE 9: RESULTS |
| Tips: 11-WORTHY CAUSE 1st W=$7.00 *** Best Each Way Bet *** 15-LORD ASPEN 20-ORIENT LINE |
| RACE 7: TURNBULL STAKES 2000M GROUP 1 SET WEIGHTS |
| Tips: 8-WHO SHOT THEBARMAN 11-AMRALAH 15-ALPINE EAGLE SCR |
| Others: 1, 12, 9 Pace: SLOW Leaders: 9-RISING ROMANCE (wide) Handy: 3-HARTNELL (wide), 5-VOLKSTOK'N'BARRELL, 8-WHO SHOT THEBARMAN, 10-WEARY, 11-AMRALAH, 16-ROYAL DESCENT Back: 1-HAPPY TRAILS, 2-PROTECTIONIST, 4-PREFERMENT, 6-MAGICOOL, 7-DANDINO, 12-EXTRA ZERO, 13-SET SQUARE, 14-GUST OF WIND, 15-ALPINE EAGLE, 17-AWESOME ROCK (emerg) Chances: 1-HAPPY TRAILS needs no introduction and is a trusted and valued friend of many punters. Mainly because he is so darn consistent, he has popped up year after year now, and always manages to win a feature race on this way through and is quite reliable in his form patterns. He follows pretty much the same campaign every spring and usually takes 2-3 runs to find his best. This time in he ran on well 1st up in Adelaide, then 2nd up in the Memsie he was finishing on well late but had nowhere to go and went to the line under a hold. In the Makybe Diva here he presented at the right time in the straight but only went home as good as the rest of them in a blanket finish. Should definitely be ready to win now, out to 2000M and loves a dry firm track. Already won a Mackinnon here and won this race in 2013, before having no luck in this race last year when he went for an inside run on the rails that didn’t come. All of those who finished in front of him here last start aren’t going around today. Question mark is maybe the bunched finish there and if something with a new form line goes better. Does keep drawing inside barriers, would prefer him to be coming outside horses, and bit wary of what happened last year in this race in a big field with no speed today. Does also have to give weight to this entire field under these weight conditions, which is a concern, and meets many of these from last start far worse off at the weights (3-4kgs). Into clear running and with some luck in the straight he is a definite winning chance, but have a few reservations. Chance. 8-WHO SHOT THEBARMAN is a very smart stayer and he is one we are definitely following this spring. His form over the last year has just been ultra consistent, he racked up back to back staying wins here last spring before an excellent 3rd in the Melbourne Cup. Maintained his form during the Sydney Autumn too when he was right in the finish most runs, and looked the winner of the Sydney Cup when he dashed through on the rails. Fitter for the 2 runs in and they have both been good, making ground late. Suspect he is better on firm tracks and will improve a lot today. Like that he has had the 2000M run this time in, as opposed to many of these who are stepping up in distance. Drawn a good barrier – and he can race handy if they want. A lot to like about this one today. Think he is going to step up today and is a strong chance in this. Strong chance. 9-RISING ROMANCE is a smart staying mare who has been coming along nicely this spring. Looked the winner in the Caulfield Cup last year when the jockey cut the corner and went for home, and maintained her form during the Autumn when only just beaten with a big weight in Sydney. Fitter for the 2 runs in, but note she is stepping up from 1600M to 2000M here today, and a few of these have had the extra run in the Underwood, or had the run over 2000M in Sydney in the Hill Stakes. She was probably been the best of them from the bunched finishes, and was hitting the line well in both runs. Wide barrier here is an issue though as she does tend to race handy so is likely to get caught wide, though not sure if there is that much speed in this race. Definite chance on form, suspect she might find one better again today though. Chance. 11-AMRALAH is an import who has taken a few tries to get right, but he finally put it all together last start in Adelaide and wowsers he was pretty good. Don’t underestimate that win. Had some support in the Mackinnon here last year when didn’t produce. Really improved sharply last start when stepped up in distance, and sat handy and looked the winner a long way out – and he dashed away from them very quickly there. Think that is a very promising sign. Obviously this is a much harder race, but it is also good that he represents a new form line away from the bunched finishes in Melbourne. Think he can go forward again here in a race with not much speed. Watch the market here, but think he is a genuine chance and one on the way up. Chance. 12-EXTRA ZERO is a super consistent old timer and a horse we actually have a lot of time for, despite him being labelled as a non winner. Still can’t believe he didn’t get the photo in the Australian Cup here. Placed a whopping 14 times here at Flemington and has been placed 13 of his last 17 starts – and you still keep getting $3 to $4 the place on him!. Fitter for the 3 runs in and they have all been good, 1st up here he worked home really well, 2nd up again OK and the wet track didn’t suit and was coming home well again here last start when the 60kgs just seemed to anchor him. Really well suited getting some weight relief here and he does seem to appreciate the rare occasions that he gets down in the weights. Loves a firm dry track. Last start this track and distance he was beaten in a photo finish in an Australian Cup, and he beat many of these going around today in that race – and gets 3-4kgs off them today. Was SCR from Friday night at MV for this race. Rarely wins, but sheesh he looks well in this so make sure you put him in your quinellas and trifectas and think he is capable of an upset in this. Rough chance. 15-ALPINE EAGLE has a huge spruik on him but it is really time for the 4 year olds to stand up this spring, and stop letting all the 8 year olds win all the races. Lightly raced with a good win strike rate and highlight win was the flashing finish to win the Autumn Classic at Caulfield. Fitter for the 2 runs in and like all of these should improve out to the 2000M. Suited with the drop in weight in this. He was OK, working home late last start, but it wasn’t anything extraordinary. Drawn outside suits as likes to drop back and run on, but not sure what the speed is going to be like here. Certain to get well backed and we really need a star 4YO to step up this spring, but actually think he is going to start poor value. Might win, can win, is a strong chance, but not sure we want to back him today in a race with lots of other value chances. Chance. SCR Place: 3-HARTNELL is a smart import who very quickly adapted to life Down Under in his first Australian preparation, and picked up a few Sydney Autumn feature races. You would think he would probably improve even further this time in with the benefit of one preparation. Only had the one run back this time in, and he went forward and stuck on OK that day. Smart win strike rate. Big plus with this one is that he can go forward and take a position and make his own luck. Just the 4 weeks between runs and stepping up in distance is maybe a little concern. Drawn a wide barrier and probably gets caught out wide here on the speed, but not too sure that is going to bother him that much. Don’t think he will be far away and suspect he will get backing, but maybe just prefer place today. Think he is going to be a factor later in the spring though. Place. 4-PREFERMENT is a super tough stayer who may be a bit under rated. Super tough staying effort to win the VRC Derby here last spring, and was coming through the Geelong Derby Trial which normally isn’t the right form line. Probably a little disappointing during his Autumn campaign, but not hopeless. Fitter for the 2 runs back, did nothing 1st up, and then caused a boilover 2nd up when he went for a wide run 600M from home, got headed and fought back really well to win on a wet track. Really strong win. He just seems to be a ultra tough stayer who wants a tough slog of a race. Not sure that is going to happen today, and these may be a little sharp for him. He wants a fast speed and distance. Think he is under rated and is going to feature this spring, but probably just prefer place today. Place. 1st W=$12.20 7-DANDINO is an import now racing for a local stable. Put in a great spring in 2013 when right in the finish of both the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups, and then had a full year off before commencing this campaign. Fitter for the 3 runs in and has been right there in the bunched finishes this spring, which is a good sign as he would be definitely looking for further. Another backing up off the Underwood Stakes last week where he worked home OK along the rails. Easy to spot in his high res yellow fluorescent safety colours. Drawn outside here suits as will drop back and run on late. He actually seems to be coming along pretty well this spring and should be running on late here again. Place. 4th W=$19.90 14-GUST OF WIND is a lightly raced 4YO mare who looks a real staying type, and has a sensational finishing burst on her day. Won the ATC Oaks over the Autumn. Fitter for the 2 runs in and was one of many in the bunched finish here in the Makybe Diva when she was really good late along the rails. 3rd up and up 400M and a couple of these have had an extra run in now. Well drawn and gets the weight advantage under this weight scale. She is probably going to keep improving and think the last run was pretty good so some sort of blow out chance here, but prefer place. Place. 16-ROYAL DESCENT is a very consistent mare who looked extremely well weighted with only 53.5 kgs in this race. Fitter for the 3 runs in and she has been in the finish every time this preparation. Probably does prefer it wet and the 2000M is probably as far as she wants, despite winning an AJC Oaks as a 3YO. 2000M plus form hasn’t been the best since her 3YO season. Failed in this race in 2013 with similar lead in form, and yet to show much in 3 Melbourne career runs, which were all in feature races, but she was in the betting each time. She can jump and go forward here though , which would be a plus. Really she is fit, in form, on speed with no weight, so that has to put her in the finish somewhere – just can’t see her winning this. Place. 2nd W=$6.70 Sacking: 2-PROTECTIONIST was last year’s stunning Melbourne Cup winner – and last Autumns’ stunning major flop. Absolutely slaughtered them in a fast run Melbourne Cup, but then just didn’t seem to come up in the Autumn, where he made a little ground but didn’t really get into a finish. Has had the two runs back this time in over unsuitable distances, and was going backwards early in the straight last start before starting to pick up again towards the line. The big track here at Flemington and the step up in distance is obviously going to suit. Drawn inside and likely to drop back and need some luck, and he probably needs to get outside runners here to be a factor. Hard to tell how he is going till he gets to a suitable trip, so maybe watch the market, but can’t really have him off 6 disappointing runs in a row now. Wait till he finds some form. No 5-VOLKSTOK'N'BARRELL is a well performed NZer who has been going along OK in all of the bunched finishes in the traditional WFA lead up races. Worked home well 1st up, then raced handy and seemed to be going backwards when finished last in the Makybe Diva, but jockey claimed the horse still had something to give and couldn’t get a clear run (not so certain about that). Backing up off the Underwood Stakes run last week where he settled handy and whacked on OK, but he didn’t really challenge. Nice barrier and will settle handy here and have every chance. Not totally convinced how he is going and he has had every chance at his past 3 runs, though guess he really hasn’t been beaten very far this time in. Probably a place chance, but going to risk him today till he genuinely gets into a finish. No 6-MAGICOOL is an erratic and most annoying horse who is hard to catch. Seemed to thrive on hard racing last time in, and his wins didn’t come till the end of a fairly long campaign. He definitely wants more ground and he should improve as the distances increase. Fitter for the 3 runs in, which have been OK, but bit hard to recommend with any confidence. Gets a little bit of weight relief here under this set weight and penalties weight scale. Has drawn an inside barrier and likely to drop well back and be trapped on the inside and that’s a big negative. No 10-WEARY is a import who has had a couple of good preparations in Australia now. Hasn’t really been tried over these longer trips except for his 2nd in Brisbane over the winter, and not entirely convinced he will run out these distances. Fitter for the 3 runs in, and 1st up run was excellent when he missed the start and they wanted to go forward and he was making good ground late. 2nd up was the best of the late finishers here coming down the outside and based on those two runs he did look primed to do something. Didn’t do much in the Underwood Stakes and is starting to get a pattern of missing the start. Definitely appears to be a wet tracker and the very firm ground and a hot day today is not going to suit. Is nicely weighted under these race conditions though. Main interest here is if they get him to jump with them as he can race forward as there isn’t much speed in this race at all. Risking otherwise. 13-SET SQUARE is a very lightly raced mare who managed to win the VRC Oaks at only her 4th start in her first preparation, which was a fair effort. Didn’t quite go on with it in the Autumn, but wasn’t far away. Fitter for the 3 runs in, but in weaker company than this. 1st up finished on hard to only just miss, and was just OK last start here when she ran her race in patches, but got going again towards the end of the race. 3rd up and up 300M and gets in down the bottom of the weights in this. On her best form she could be a factor in this, still not quite sure where she is going to fit in this spring based on her 2 runs in and would have probably liked to see a bit more in both runs. Will probably get some support, but prefer to let her run today. No 3rd W=$19.80 17-AWESOME ROCK (emerg) is a 4YO who doesn’t have the best win strike rate. Looked good during his 3YO spring runs, but didn’t quite make it to the Caulfield Guineas, and OK during QLD winter campaign when was making ground late. Always appeared to be more of a miler, so strange to see him going on towards these races. Fitter for the 2 runs in, 1st up run was excellent against a lead all the way winner, and then not disgraced in the Makybe Diva. Hard to see him figuring here though, even if he does get into the finish. No. Summary: This is always a great betting race and we get a field with a lot of different form lines and a mix of weights to make things interesting. Just be wary of those bunched finishes we have had in Melbourne, there is a good chance a new form line will come through that is better and that comes out and beats them all. Lower profile horses down in the weights can win this race, though we have a string of tough old timers win it in recent years. There doesn’t seem to be much speed here at all. The 9-RISING ROMANCE (wide) looks the most likely leader crossing from an outside barrier with the 3-HARTNELL (wide), 5-VOLKSTOK'N'BARRELL, 10-WEARY, 11-AMRALAH, 16-ROYAL DESCENT sitting just off them, but there doesn’t seem to be much pressure up front at all. We are going to go for one at odds here, the 8-WHO SHOT THEBARMAN. Fitter for the 2 runs in, had the run over the 2000M and has been hitting the line well last 2 starts. Think there is more improvement to come with the step up in distance and the firm track today and recent Flemington record is excellent. Nice barrier and if they can just get him sitting handy on the speed think he is a good chance at odds. The main danger is probably the Adelaide form line the 11-AMRALAH who was really impressive last start and should sit handy again today in a race with not much speed. Might be one about to go up a notch and watch the betting on this one. The 15-ALPINE EAGLE the other main danger, but probably going to start poor value and really it is time for him to step up this spring and show us what he is made of. Plenty of value here though, especially in the trifectas with lots of great value place chances. Keen to dabble and look for a big collect in a multiple. One to risk: 16-ROYAL DESCENT 2nd W=$6.70 Roughie: 12-EXTRA ZERO The Key: Not WFA, look for those well weighted against lead up runs. RESULTS: Been concern over the bunched finishes in Melbourne, so not unexpected that a few Sydney runners come down and prove to be better. Looks like we have really under rated the 4-PREFERMENT, nothing wins running on from the back of the field today - except for him. He has been in 3 tough finishes now and won each one of them! Maybe the best of the rest is the 14-GUST OF WIND who ran out of room on the rails and will be a lot better once she draws outside horses in clear running. |
|