We have had fine weather all week at Flemington which is pretty rare in itself, but not as rare as having a profitable Cup Week which has eluded us this year (as it has many punters). Rail goes out to OUT 8M today off OUT 5M here for Oaks Day and whilst on Derby day it was difficult to lead and win because of the strong winds, Tuesday and Thursday have noticeably favoured those racing on-speed and making runs through the field and expect that pattern to continue. If the track continues to wear they will be able to come to the middle of the track like they did on the last few races on Oaks Day. Outside rail and outside barriers a big advantage down the straight races.
One of the biggest rules of Cup Week is always back-up on horses who have run well during the week and are going around again – there is very little time to lose form and they invariably go just as well if not better. This looks a favourite’s day and likely most of the races will be won by those in the market, more so than what we have seen over the last week at Flemington. We have three fantastic feature races though to enjoy, and have done the full form preview for the Champion Sprint, Champion Mile and Champion Stakes below.
For Spring Campaign 2024 tips will be posted around 10am on Saturday morning (earlier if time allows). Feature race preview at the bottom of this post.
BEST WIN: Race 6: 1-GIGA KICK $5 WIN
Really competitive feature sprint field and this will be a great betting race, but this one seems most suited to the Flemington 1200M on a dry track. Coming back off an injury lay off and has been improving each start this time in, burst through to win the Everest but just outsprinted late. Think he probably still has more improvement to come off that and likely to be very strong at the end of the 1200M here. Back straight out at around $5.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 1: 6-CEERSEVEN $3 EW QUINELLA 1,2,6,11 boxed x $3 = 50%
Pretty even field to open the day and this one looks ready to win off two runs this time in. Fought out the finish last start and he has better 1600M form than most of his rivals here and is usually pretty consistent when the strikes form. Would like to see a more positive ride in a small field, but looks good each-way value at around $12. Box up in a quinella with the first leader the 1-NATION’S CALL, wary of the 2-TIJUANA who doesn’t win often, but wants on-speed and a dry track and value roughie is the 11-WINSOME STAR off two good runs this time in.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 9-LITTLE MIX $4 EW, QUINELLA 3,6,9,11,14 boxed x $5 = 50%
This is always a very even feature mares’ race and we have had a longshot winners a few times over the years. One thing that is quite noticeable is that very few of these are proven over 2000M, in fact most of them are a query at the distance. So this one really stands out, good distance stats and placed over further in Mornington and Warrnambool Cups. Fitter for the two runs in and was right in the bunched finish last start at MV, but she probably has more fitness improvement to come than most of those from that race. Would be good to see them settle handy here from a good barrier. Looks a good each way chance at around $13 and sure to be a big quinella here so boxing up the 14-FIRESTORM who is strong at the end of her races and wasn’t suited around tight MV in a leader dominated race, the 11-LIEVORE at long odds who just keeps racing well and can go forward again and make her own luck here, the 3-LADY IN PINK who has to overcome a wide barrier, but is really tough and better than her last run and the 6-QUICKSTER who will loom into the race, but may just be a query the last little bit.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 11-AMELIA’S JEWEL $5 EW
She is not one we normally back, but we are keen to have a bet on her today. Been trying for a Group 1 for ages, but she seems back to her best now and she has been racing really well last few starts. Gave a great kick here last week and the winner had to really extend to run her down. Likely to settle more forward than some of the more favoured backmarkers here and she can run into the race at the right time and might prove hard to run down again. Keen to have a bet at around $14 and this is our main bet of the day.
BEST ROUGH: Race 4: 12-ROBRICK $2 EW
This looks a pretty even sprint field, but have to like that this one is drawn the widest barrier which is probably going to the best lane down the straight against the outside rail. Last run at Geelong was excellent coming from a long last and only just missing. Proven down the straight and the run you want to watch out for is the closing second here behind ESTRIELLA when she was flying and he got very close and that one is going around it the feature sprint today. Good rough bet at around $17.
BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 8-ROYAL CHAMPION $1 WIN, $3 PLACE
Up against the short-priced Cox Plate winner in the feature race, so this is more of a place bet, but this one might be a bit of the smokey in this race, an import just starting to run into form who might go on this spring. Only the two runs back from a long spell and thrown in the deep end here so the stable must have an opinion of this one. Gave a really good kick last start at MV and really only run down very late. Likely to sit second in the run here behind the leader and he might kick clear again in the straight and turn this into an exciting race. Rough at $26, more the place.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 5: 7-HINGED at around $3.50
Very consistent on-speed mare who has been racing at the top level for some time now, but hasn’t won for close to three years and starts a clear favourite here in big even field. Good barrier and likely to settle handy with jockey McDonald on board, but suspect she is better with some give in the ground and over 1600M. Happy to risk and prefer to back something at value in this race.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a bottle of the new secret champagne.
TRIFECTA: Race 4: 4,12 / 4,5,9,12 / 1,4,5,7,9,12,14 x $5 = 16.66%
Let’s try for a trifecta down the straight when you can often get large dividends. We have already backed the roughie 12-ROBRICK but the one to beat is the consistent 4-REY MAGNERIO drawn wide and finishing strongly who just missed here last week. The 5-CROSSHAVEN is the value runner here, he goes well down the straight on dry ground and was no surprise to see him finish top four here last week at $81 and he might get into placings again.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 6,7,8,9: 1,2,5,7,12 / 1,4,11,12 / 10,11 / 3,7,11,12,15 x $20 = 10%
Some even races first two legs and a wide open last leg means this quaddie may pay better than most people think. Go wide in an open feature sprint, hope for value in the 11-AMELIA’S JEWEL, 12-STEFI MAGNETICA in the feature mile, the short-priced favourite probably wins the main race but always worth throwing in a back-up and go wide with as many roughies as you can afford in an open last leg.
Feature Race Preview: RACE 6: CHAMPION SPRINT
Strong field for the feature sprint and assuming the outside rail will be fastest down the straight course, so wider barriers will be a plus. For a feature sprint there really isn’t that much speed here though the 8-ESTRIELLA will likely be ridden to an aggressive lead and the 2-OVERPASS will be able to go forward and steer to the best ground and if they wanted to these two could control the speed and make it tough for the backmarkers. The 5-BELLA NIPOTINA will be able to settle just behind these and get the perfect run, and expect the 10-STRETAN ANGEL to settle more handy today.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-GIGA KICK is a very talented sprinter who seems to be back to his best after an injury lay off. Just needed a few runs in this time to get back into form, they went too slowly two starts back and then he burst though near the inside in the Everest and looked the winner but the (5) wore him down. Been raced very carefully and sparingly this spring and looks right at peak with plenty still to give. Dry track suits, proven down the straight and looks very hard to beat in this. Strong chance.
2-OVERPASS is a proven Sydney speedster with an excellent 1200M record. Won against a big field last start and jumped and led and won WA feature races showing some class. Has won down the straight before, but that was a few years ago and he has drawn inside which will probably be the slower side. On the plus side there doesn’t seem to be much speed here at all for a feature sprint, with likely this one and the (8) leading. So there is a really good chance for him to control the speed here, work across into the best ground and pinch this race. Watch the betting market but looks a really strong winning chance. Strong chance.
3-I AM UNSTOPPABLE was a top class 3YO down the straight, but kept finding one better. Some time off and a stable change and then seems to have got him back to form, flying home late last start at MV behind the (4). On his best form he would be a chance here, but we don’t really know if he is back to his best yet. Drawn wide is a plus, and will probably be ridden cold again to finish over the top of them late, but may give them too big a start here. Rough chance.
4-BARAQUIEL looks a very smart sprinter on the rise and has yet to miss the place in 8 career starts. Chased hard with a big weight here 1st up, lengthened and chased one down 2nd up and then was brilliant winning last start at MV looping them and running away from them. He has shown that he can handle the straight before, but wouldn’t have expected he would be contesting a Group 1 feature sprint off the winter sprint third here in July. Drawn barrier 1 is probably not a plus and he is one on the improve, but also facing his biggest challenge and he would really need everything to go right here – expect there are better straight track horses in this. Risking despite great form.
5-BELLA NIPOTINA is the punting pin-up horse at the moment and she just keeps trying so hard and winning again and again – and she often starts at back-able odds despite her incredible and consistent record. No wonder punters love her so much, she is just so reliable. Really chased hard to run down the (1) in the Everest and then had the race won a long way out last start. Handles all track conditions. Is backing up within a week and swapping states which is often an ask. Main issue is her Flemington record 10 starts – 0 wins and 4 placings and that has to be a real worry. Pretty much all of those Flemington misses have been narrow 4ths and 5th beaten less than 2 lengths in feature sprints, but still, it does seem she is not at her best down the straight. Looks to lob behind the speed here and may get the best run in the race. Has to go in just because she is racing so well. Chance.
6-SUNSHINE IN PARIS is the improving Sydney sprinter with the gun Sydney jockey on board. She has never been down the straight before, but she is a strong finishing type who will likely be suited and has drawn wide to run on strongly down the outside. Chased really hard behind the (5) last start and made really good ground late. Main concern is that she is priced on what she may do, rather than what she has done. Suspect she is going to get well back here and give these a start, but needs to be respected. Strong chance, but no value.
7-LADY LAGUNA seems to be continually under-rated and went through an extraordinary preparation at the start of this year when she just kept winning and going up in class and kept winning and ended up with a Group 1. Her two runs in this time has been really good, she chased hard late behind the (2) two starts back and then loomed into the race nicely last start behind the (5) who kicked away, but she fought on well. So she has form around many of these and probably more improvement to come than most of her rivals. Strong finisher who may drop back and need the speed on here to run on late, but think she is still a good rough chance in this. Rough
8-ESTRIELLA came into the spring with really high expectations and was very disappointing her first two runs this time in, even if they were at the top level. They tried to take a sit first-up which didn’t work, and she stopped quickly second up, but they dropped her back in distance last start at Caulfield and just rode her aggressively to the lead and that seems to be the way to ride her. She was favoured by a leaders track there though and wasn’t really challenged in the lead and only just held on. Looks a clear leader here again and she is proven down the straight. This is much, much harder though and have to query her leading over 1200M down the straight at this level. No.
9-RIGHT TO PARTY has had a sensational six months racing down the straight and love the way she just launches late over the top of them, once she gets winding up you can tell what is going to happen. Heavy ground stopped her here two starts back and then those on-speed had pinched a break and she did extremely well to chase them down here last start. Class is the test here and would be much better off if this was a handicap. Probably drawn the wrong side of the straight too and will want to get across to make her runs down the outside. Suspect she is better with a little give in the ground. Will be running on late but probably finds one or two too smart today. Prefer place.
10-STRETAN ANGEL seems to keep her best sprinting form for the straight, but she also does seem to prefer some give in the ground. Good here two starts back when dropped back a bit further than usual and expect to see her sitting just off the speed here and getting every chance. Unlikely to be good enough to win this, but no reason why she can’t run first four with a good run and proven straight track form. Rough place.
11-PRIVATE LIFE has only had the five career starts and a bit of a surprise to see him popping up again at the end of the spring off his Caulfield Guineas win. Really not sure of the strength of the Caulfield Guineas and to be honest, he lobbed on-speed on a leader’s track there and pinched the race and this is a very different race over 1200M down the straight. He is a 3YO with no weight here, but would want to see a very strong market move to be interested. No.
12-BELLATRIX STAR has been a revelation this spring and just keeps racing well and meeting every challenge. Poked through nicely on the inside here last Saturday (and that wasn’t the best ground), and have to respect horses backing up off good Cup Week runs. Proven down the straight, in form, on the rise and gets into this race with a big weight advantage. If the winner of the Coolmore was going around in this he would be probably pushing favouritism so she looks good value. Drawn outside is a plus and think you have to respect her form this spring. Strong chance.
Summary:
Looks a very even race and most of these have some chance, the key here is going to be the tempo down the straight as there doesn’t seem to be a lot of speed or pressure up front. We have to apologise as we are a big fan, but we are going to leave the 5-BELLA NIPOTINA out of the tips today, still think she is a strong chance, but just prefer others given her straight track record. Still that is probably a good thing for those who want to back her! Putting the 1-GIGA KICK on top, proven down the straight with improvement to come from last start, from the 2-OVERPASS who can control the speed here and maybe pinch the race from the backmarkers and have a lot of respect for the 3YO filly 12-BELLATRIX STAR. Best rough is the 7-LADY LAGUNA who continues to be under-rated and will be running on strongly late.
Feature Race Preview: RACE 7: CHAMPIONS MILE
We have a really strong field for the Champions Mile, but to be honest we would love this race to still be a big handicap field with a big weight spread, it was always a great betting race on the last day of Cup Week. Speed here is quite obvious with the 9-PRIDE OF JENNI leading, the 4-ANTINO probably lobs in again to the bunny chasing role with the 6-ANOTHER WIL and 1-MR BRIGHTSIDE ready to drop if the leader stops. Big challenge for the new jockey to rate the leader correctly here, especially coming off a disappointing run.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-MR BRIGHTSIDE needs no introduction and has been consistently appearing and performing year after year and season after season for some time now. Astounding 11 wins from 19 starts at the 1600M and no doubt this is his best distance. He has spent most of the spring chasing others though, he has been super genuine every start and chasing hard, but not quite getting there. Genuine in a fast run Cox Plate. Coming into this off a tough run in that race is the query, at the end of the spring campaign. He probably just prefers a little give in the ground, so slight negative if we get to a GOOD(3) at the end of the day. Second in this race last year behind the (9) and third the year before that, both times coming through the Cox Plate so shown he can handle that preparation, and fourth the year before that – guess which spot he hasn’t filled in yet! Attempting this race for a fourth year in a row is a pretty fair achievement. Well drawn and gets the perfect chase into the race again, not quite sure he is going at his best this preparation but far too good to write off. Chance.
2-MY OBERON is a capable miler with a good 1600M record, hasn’t won for two years now, but has been contesting the very top level races. Best recent runs have been on very wet tracks and likely to be striking a very firm track here. Last three runs have all been really good, stuck to the task well in the Epsom and then loomed up like he was going to run straight past the (9) last start (but couldn’t get past her), which might be a good indicator for this run. Always strong at the end of his races too which might be a plus here. Not sure he is a winning chance though? Place.
3-PINSTRIPED has ability but can be a little hard to catch, loomed like the winner first-up in the Lawrence, but then made amends on a firm track in the Memsie. Didn’t handle the heavy track in the Makybe Diva. Given a freshen-up mid spring and then Caulfield run last start was excellent, ran on out wide, carrying top-weight, chasing hard the length of the straight and the rails was much better ground that day. Class and WFA is the query here, but that last run was pretty good so he is probably stays in the mix as a rough chance. Rough.
4-ANTINO has always shown a lot of ability and often not had the best of luck in his Melbourne spring races. Was just going along OK this spring being safely held by the top-liners at WFA, but then Toorak Handicap win was utterly extraordinary – looping the entire field mid-race and dashing for home and leaving the rest of a smart field in his dust. Question is if the ride made the difference last start and how do they ride him today? Note the jockey change today. Has struggled to get near the (9) before this spring. Will settle handy, dry track and 1600M suits and you have to keep him safe at least coming off that last win. Strong chance.
5-DESERT LIGHTING SCRATCHED
6-ANOTHER WIL was a strong win here on Derby Day off an excellent ride to save ground on the rails. Left flat footed by the (4) the start before in the Toorak when he was disappointing, but it is hard to lose your rhythm mid-race when a horse changes the tempo suddenly like that. Jockey Bates looking to make amends for losing ride on the (9). Well drawn and he can settle handy again and weave though the field again. Always been very highly rated, this is a really strong field though and not sure he has proven himself at this level and at WFA. Also needs to deal with the tempo of the (9) leading at a strong speed. Have to respect the winning form during Cup Week and backing up, but there are probably others we prefer to back here. Prefer place. SCRATCHED
7-NEW ENERGY is fitter for the three runs in this spring but is being set a task here at WFA. Has made good ground each start this time in, but yet to win in Australia yet in two preparations and not sure the firm track here is going to suit. Not against these. No
8-VON HAUKE has always shown fair bit of potential, but bit surprised to see him going around in this race and he would have loved if this was still a handicap so he could get a decent weight pull off these rather than equal weights at WFA. Been building into the spring nicely and looks ready to win now, he was really unlucky last start at MV when launching late but was baulked for runs, and we saw another unlucky one from that race come out and win nicely the last race on Oaks Day. Will win a good race one day, and he is ready to win this spring, but unlikely against these. No.
9-PRIDE OF JENNI has been the talk of the town for most of the spring, but in general she just hasn’t been racing to her best this time in. Disappointing first-up, definitely back in form second-up when only just run down late, she was always going to be hard to run down in a four horse field around MV third-up and then much made of the tactics to make her work early in the Sydney run when she faded late – but the one that beat her there is pretty darn good regardless. Was obviously not at her best in the Cox Plate and she never really ran away from them, poor run was blamed on the back-up off a tough Sydney run the week before. Question now is can she bounce back, past her Grand Final, off a poor run and with a different jockey on? Wins this race on her best, but we are not convinced she is going her best at the moment. Would want to see leaders winning today to back this one, if they are winning coming off the rails would be taking her on. Chance, with reservations.
10-FANGIRL is the highly regarded Sydney backmarker who has yet to really prove herself the Melbourne way of going. In her last six starts she has been beaten four times at $2.90, $2.40, $1.30 and $2.40. Crack Sydney jockey on board to prove her in Melbourne. Ran fourth as favourite in this race last year, but that was coming off a Cox Plate run and she was probably past her spring peak. Obviously set for this race this year and avoided the Cox Plate unlike some of her rivals. Only win in Melbourne was during Cup week in 2021 as a 3YO. Her racing style, dropping well back leaves her open to being vulnerable in slow races and on leader biased tracks. Would want to see them running on and winning today. Not sure if racing against the (9) suits her as she has to stand them such a big start. Sure to have plenty of fans, but actually happy to risk her today – think she needs to prove herself in a big race in Melbourne. Risking.
11-AMELIA’S JEWEL has been racing so well all spring and has been chasing this Group 1 for quite a few seasons now. Really like the run here last week on Derby Day, she kicked clear and the winner really had to dig deep to run her down right on the line, and only just grabbed her on the line. Firm track suits, and be interesting to see if they settle more handy today like they did last week. She chased a tear-away leader here last week and seemed to handle it well. She was hopelessly over-rated early on in her career, starting $2.40 in a Toorak when disappointing, and has been shuffling through stable changes and distance changes since then and we have largely avoided her – but we want to jump on today. Think she is ready to win, has the class to win this and looks great value against a field where key rivals may not be at their best or get the race run to suit. Backing up in Cup Week off a good run is a very big tick. Strong chance.
12-STEFI MAGNETICA has a stack of ability but suspect chasing the Everest has probably upset her spring campaign. She should have won last start, she was absolutely flying late and went to take a narrow gap which abruptly closed on her. Stradbroke win mid-year was outstanding running down a smart one. Never been over the 1600M is the main issue, and this is likely to be a truly run 1600M behind the (9) as well and normally you need genuine 1600M horses for these feature miles. She does has a class turn of foot so wouldn’t rule her out in this and don’t think she has been running in the right races this spring. Chance.
13-BROADSIDING has been a bit of an enigma this spring and we have been happy to take him on. Only just got there first-up and then tried the impossible to win the Caulfield Guineas off only one lead in run and was only fair – to be fair the leaders track didn’t assist either. Good run in the Cox Plate but still beaten a long way. He has had a tough spring so question is how much is there still left to come? Gets the weight pull for a 3YO, but another backmarker who will be giving the (9) a big head start on the turn and will want the racing pattern to be suiting those running on down the middle of the track. Also going to be giving a few on the speed a big head start. Another who will have a lot of punting interest, but we would want to see a few things turn in his favour before getting on and not sure this racing is going to be run to suit. Risking.
Summary:
Probably want to wait and see how the track is racing before betting here – if the racing pattern continues to favour those on-speed and making runs through the field near the rails as it has Cup and Oaks Day then some of these are going to find it very difficult to win. If they are winning running on would probably want to take on the leader. Concerned about how some of the key chances are going here at the end of their spring campaigns and also if they are going to get the race run to suit.
So the one we really want to back here is the 11-AMELIA’S JEWEL, dry track, 1600M and coming off an excellent run here last week and sitting handy well in front of many of the backmarkers and she might be just as hard to run down this week. Respect for the 1-MR BRIGHTSIDE just because he has proven himself in this race year after year and 4-ANTINO has to prove his last run wasn’t just a freak ride, but he is right in this. Happy to take on some of the key runners here with good value about good horses. Best rough chance is the 12-STEFI MAGNETICA who has a sensational finishing burst. Keen to bet here if we have judged this race correctly.
Feature Race Preview: RACE 8: CHAMPION STAKES
Strong field for the WFA 2000M race once known as the Mackinnon Stakes with this year’s winners of the Caulfield Cup and Cox Plate going around and a special guest appearance from last year’s Caulfield Cup winner as well. Often this race is won by those who finished back in the field in the Cox Plate as the winner has normally ended their spring campaign, so will be interesting to see what the short-priced favourite can produce today.
Speed map looks really well established here with the 12-DENY KNOWLEDGE running to a clear lead (and be wary if the track is favouring those on-speed), she can be hard to run down under the right conditions. The 6-ELIYASS and 8-ROYAL CHAMPION will get good sits here behind the speed with the 2-DUKE DE SESSA and 5-FUTURE HISTORY next in line.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-WITHOUT A FIGHT was dominant last spring winning the Caulfield Cup and Melbourne Cup double off a single lead-in run, but has been off with injury since then. Would be a pretty impressive training performance to win this race 1st up off a year spell, but then again it was a pretty impressive training performance to win the Cups double last year off a limited preparation as well, so don’t underestimate this horse. Solid tempo on here will suit and he really needs them to be coming off the rails and winning down the middle of the track as he will be coming from well back. Can’t back with any confidence and he will most likely need this run, but adds a lot of intrigue to this race.
2-DUKE DE SESSA was having a fair spring going around in the features but being well held before everything really fell into place in the Caulfield Cup, he got a favourable wet track, the track was favouring leaders and he got to dash for home and pinch the race. Stuck on pretty well here behind the (10) in Turnbull start before that. Looks to be a fair bit of speed in this race and he will be one pulling the field up to the leaders here which may bring him undone. Also won a handicap last start with a light-weight and back to WFA here. On a dry track at the end of a preparation has to be some question marks over him and prefer place at best. Place.
3-ARAPAHO is coming into this off weaker Sydney races, but only the two runs in so plenty of improvement to come this spring and fresher than most of these. Won the Tancred at WFA last spring but that was a far inferior field to this. Best form is on wet ground and over further and likely to drop well back and give some really good horses a big hard start here. No
4-NUGGET has always shown some ability and is often running on late in mile races but probably doesn’t win as often as he should. Ran on well in the MV Crystal Mile looping the turn, best form has been with light weights in handicap races though. Query at the 2000M and his only 2000M run was overseas and this is likely to be a pretty solidly run 2000M WFA feature which is going to be a task. No
5-FUTURE HISTORY was pushing into the top level of stayers last spring and ran in the Melbourne Cup, before losing form mid-year, but has been racing really well this time in. First two runs were almost identical, jumping on-speed in slowly run races and then under-performed in the Metropolitan and looks like they are keeping him to the 2000M range for now. Controlled the speed in a small field in an handicap to win at MV and that is how he runs his best races, so into a WFA race here with several other leaders probably doesn’t suit this one. Drawn well and will get a good run into the race though so maybe worth a rough place chance. Place.
6-ELIYASS has been racing well in Sydney and was competitive in the Turnbull when beaten by a few top liners who have gone on to win the spring features. Safely held in the Caulfield Cup (but then again so were there Melbourne Cup quinella!!). Can jump and settle handy here, he is probably the one we would risk in this field, going to race on past the Caulfield Cup, and whilst the Sydney form was good, he also got races run to suit. Impressive win strike rate but prefer to risk in this. Passing.
7-DOCKLANDS is the stable mate of the Bendigo Cup winner who went fair but really wasn’t competitive in the Cox Plate. Probably will improve with that run and the best we can say is that those who finished 4th, 5th, 6th in the Cox Plate often win this race. Little betting market interest in the Cox Plate and same again here so hard to recommend. No
8-ROYAL CHAMPION is an import who looks to be slowly building this spring. Jumped to lead but stopped quickly at Flemington and then gave a pretty good kick at MV in an improved performance. They struggled to get to him at MV, despite a large pack chasing and there is a bit to like about this one being fresher and still on the up this spring, whilst the others are already past their Grand Final targets. Will jump on speed and get a really good trail into the race here and don’t be surprised if he gives a kick in the straight and gives them a bit of a scare here. Genuine rough chance here as an unknown quantity.
9-KINGSWOOD SCRATCHED
10-VIA SISTINA was absolutely outstanding in her Cox Plate win and finally lived up to the hype surrounding her. Only bad run this spring was on a very heavy track here and the Turnbull Stakes has been the strongest form race of the spring. Even close to her best and she should win this, although there is always the query about horses backing up again after their Grand Final. But it’s pretty rare for the Cox Plate winner to go on to race again in the spring. Main danger for her might be an on-speed track and the leader pinching break on her. Obviously can’t back her at these short odds, but she actually deserves to be these odds on form (and its surprising how often short-priced favourites are poor value). One to beat.
11-ATISHU is as genuine as they come and her dry track and Flemington Cup week form is more than outstanding, it’s magnificent. Had been coming along slowly this time in, but showed with her hard chase at Caulfield she was back in form and then her effort here last week to chase one down who had kicked for home was outstanding. Won the Empire Rose this year, last year won this race and finished 2nd in the Empire Rose, and year before she won the Matriarch, so that is one extremely impressive Cup Week record. Another who could have opted for the easier mare’s race if she wanted to. Like that she has drawn barrier 1 here as weaving through the field might be the racing pattern rather than pulling out wide where they have struggled to make ground this week. Strong chance.
12-DENY KNOWLEDGE is a dry track on-speed horse who can cause upsets when she gets conditions to suit as she did in the Caulfield Stakes. We gave her no chance in the Caulfield Cup, wet track there and she can over-race so the 2400M was always going to be an issue. She might get a few things to suit here, dry track, and a clear lead with no pressure, possible on-speed bias and worth noting she won the Matriarch on this day last year leading all the way. Interesting that the stable have gone with the harder option here as the mares feature looks pretty weak this year and she would be close to favourite in that race. If there was to be an upset think she would be the one and probably worth having a little rough saver on her at odds. Rough chance.
Summary:
Probably not a great race from a betting point of view but great to see a top class competitive field for the last feature race of Cup Week. On anything close to her best form the 10-VIA SISTINA will win this, suspect it is not going to be as dominant as the Cox Plate though and might set up for an interesting race if the 12-DENY KNOWLEDGE or 8-ROYAL CHAMPION kicks clear early in the straight waiting for something to run them down. Have to respect the 11-ATISHU during Cup Week, she just keeps performing again and again, and we just have a sneaky feeling the 8-ROYAL CHAMPION is going to run a race today as the fresh, improving horse on the scene. The leader the 12-DENY KNOWLEDGE the best rough chance and elevate if track pattern conditions suit. Probably play with something each-way and some exotics around the third pick being the value runner here.
Race 1: 6-CEERSEVEN, 1-NATION’S CALL, 11-WINSOME STAR
Race 2: 5-BUBION, 7-ANGELOTTI, 10-ROHESIA
Race 3: 1-SERPENTINE, 2-BERKELEY SQUARE, 7-KINESIOLOGY
Race 4: 4-REY MAGNERIO, 12-ROBRICK, 9-NADAL
Race 5: 9-LITTLE MIX, 14-FIRESTORM, 11-LIEVORE
Race 6: 1-GIGA KICK, 2-OVERPASS, 12-BELLATRIX STAR
Race 7: 11-AMELIA’S JEWEL, 1-MR BRIGHTSIDE, 4-ANTINO
Race 8: 10-VIA SISTINA, 11-ATISHU, 8-ROYAL CHAMPION
Race 9: 12-KIKO, 7-SHESALLSHENANIGANS, 15-NATION STATE
