Super sunny day to end Cup Week and this track should end up quite firm on a dry, sunny day as we have had next to no rain all week. Derby Day and Cup Day favoured those well drawn and on speed, and although they could run on OK on Oaks Day, often it was in races when they went too quickly, in the races where the leader got a soft run they were pretty hard to run down. Still suspect this track is going to play towards on pacers again today with the drying weather, though you would think it should start to wear coming to the second half of the program. But note there are quite a few smallish fields without much pressure up front and these leaders are going to be hard to run down. Down the straight is pretty hard to guess, it was middle to inside Derby Day, outside rail Cup Day and then they just mixed it up again with inside runners winning Oaks Day. Suspect the inside is going to be slightly better again, but there won’t be much between it.
In the feature Emirates Stakes / MacKinnon, there has been a recurring theme that often the winner comes out of the Cox Plate, and often something that was even well beaten there can back up and win this race. Just looking at the field though, be wary that a lot of these are past their spring targets and would prefer to look at those that are fresher and made set specifically for this race. The pace looks to be really genuine too, with 15-CLIFF’S EDGE, 3-GALIO CHOP and 6-TOM MELBOURNE and think you want something with genuine 2400M staying form as a result. Clear top pick here is the 7-FOLKSWOOD who was super impressive winning the Cranbourne Cup with weight and then beat home most of the field in the Cox Plate. Genuine tempo should suit and just looks to have more to give this spring than most of these. Put in the improving 11-ODEON as the value runner and main danger, despite not being suited at WFA, he is in flying form and last two wins have been impressive and looks to be one on the way up. Respect the classy stayer 10-GINGERNUTS coming into this fresher than most of these and suspect the 4-TOSEN STARDOM is going to be suited by the fast tempo here and will run a lot better than last week. Keen to bet on the top pick though.
The feature sprint, the Darley Classic is going to be a fascinating race, made even more complicated as we don’t know which side of the track they are going to go to. We suspect it will probably be the inside, but also worth noting there is very little speed drawn outside too if some decide to go to the outside rail. There actually isn’t much speed here at all, with the 2-REDZEL or 3-VEGA MAGIC leading from the 12-IN HER TIME and maybe the 14-SUPER CASH racing more forward today. This is another race where we want to go with the fresher horse, and keen to have a bet today on the 5-MALAGUERRA at odds. He won this race last year, is fitter for the 2 runs in, ran on well last start after being held up on the turn and just looks set for this race compared to the others post peaking after The Everest. Drawn outside though, so a lot is going to come down to making the right choice about which side to go to. The main danger is the flying 2-REDZEL who has now won his last 5 races and 1-CHAUTAUQUA flying home back to Flemington after teasing us all spring with run on late black book runs. Other chance is 12-IN HER TIME, especially if the inside rail is faster.
From a betting point of view this program has come up a bit light on this year, and normally we double up on this day, but with small fields there isn’t enough to bet on this year. Doesn’t mean we aren’t going to have a bet though!
BEST WIN: Race 8: 7-FOLKSWOOD $6 WIN
Keen on our top pick in the feature race coming off a very impressive Cranbourne Cup win and stuck on pretty well for 3rd in the Cox Plate. Tough staying type, and not too fussed about the outside barrier and should be suited by the fast speed here turning the race into a genuine staying test. Just looks fresher and with more upside than most of these and looks the one to beat at around $4.80
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 5-MASTER RESET $4 WIN
QUINELLA: Race 3: 5-MASTER RESET, 1-FASTNET TEMPEST x $2 = 200%
QUINELLA: Race 3: 5-MASTER RESET, 6-COLDSTONE x $2 = 200%
Very consistent dry track, on pace miler when right, and just totally forget the last run. 1st up run was excellent when was leading at the 200M, but just faded on the run, and then 2nd up got caught 3 wide all the way on a leaders track and faded quickly. Should be fitter for the 3 runs in and in a small field here should be able to lead uncontested here and be hard to run down. Back straight out at around $9 and as we are already down to 7 runners let’s forget the place bet, and back in quinellas with the two main dangers, the (1) and (6) instead.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 10-WHEAL LEISURE $4 EW
The staying race has plenty of chances, and the imported stayers are always extremely hard to beat and tend to win this race. But really like the way this one is going, lightly raced, good win strike rate, won her first two starts this campaign and then was an eye catching finishing hard late at Geelong. She was up in distance that day and that was only her 3rd run in this campaign so think she is going to have more improvement to come than her rivals. Keen to back her each way at around $9, again seems to be fresher and with more to give than many of her rivals here.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 5-MALAGUERRA $5 EW
Really strong field for the feature sprint, but this one won this race last year and looks to have been set for the race again, as opposed to most of the field on post Everest rapid descents. Fitter for the 2 runs in, dropped too far back 1st up, and then unlucky when cutting the corner and tight for room when finishing on strongly last start. Main question is going to be which side to go to with barrier (14), as most of the speed is to the inside. Looks really good value at around $11 though and suspect will drift come race time as the big money comes for the usual suspects.
BEST ROUGH: Race 4: 9-SADAQA $2 EW
QUINELLA: Race 4: 1,2,3,9,15 x $5 = 50%
Front runner with excellent track and distance stats and strikes a winnable race here in that most of these are badly out of form. Drawn barrier 1 and should get the lead here. Fitter for the 2 runs in and worked home nicely last start over an unsuitable shorter trip. Have a little something at rough odds of around $15 and in an open race also throw in a box quinella on some value runners. Note, it is not quite clear if the 1-SUPPLY AND DEMAND will back up from Thursday’s run, but should be hard to beat if he does.
BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 11-MR SO AND SO $2 EW
Last race of the Melbourne Cup Carnival and you might as well go for something at odds if you need a get out. This race is often won by up and coming horses off country form as most of the better city 3YOs have already packed up for the spring. Has been really good last two starts and can probably go forward and box seat here out wide and looks to be one on the improve. Let’s see if we can end the day with a $18 winner.
LAY OF THE DAY : Race 4: 7-LITE’N IN MY VEINS at around $3.30
This is a big, dumb field of out of form horses and we are a bit reluctant to make this one Lay of the Day as we did Black Book him off a good 1st up run a Caulfield, running on well late when held up for room. So first off we actually intended to tip him on top here, but think the odds are rubbish in a decent sized field. 2nd up, up 200M had a 3 week break, probably drops well back here in a race without much speed and although he has been racing in harder races, he actually hasn’t even placed in his last 9 starts, yet is going to start a clear cut favourite here. Doesn’t have much opposition so he might get us here, but not interested at these odds.
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more
$5 ALL UP
PLACE: Race 4: 3-BASSETT
PLACE: Race 5: 8-VIOLATE
PLACE: Race 6: 2-PROMPT RESPONSE
PLACE: Race 8: 11-ODEON
Let’s try and grab a big collect on the last day with a Poor Man’s Quaddie, the place getter in 4 races. Race 4: 3-BASSETT should get a perfect on speed sit here, does struggle to carry weight but should be in the finish somewhere. In Race 5, the 8-VIOLATE whacked away OK in the Geelong Cup and should have further improvement to come as that was his first run at the distance, and he is normally a pretty reliable value place chance. The 2-PROMPT RESPONSE in Race 6 has a class edge on these, slight query at the distance but she sits on speed and has fought on well the last two so should be in the finish again. Come home on the rapidly improving Race 8: 11-ODEON who is backing up after a good on Tuesday and often horses backing up go well during Cup week. Looking at an extremely ambitious $900 or so for a $5 outlay.
Race 1: EARLY 2YO. HAVE A SLEEP IN. LONG WEEK.
Race 2: 9-KNOWABLE, 2-TARQUIN, 1-KOURKAM
Race 3: 5-MASTER RESET, 1-FASTNET TEMPEST, 6-COLDSTONE
Race 4: 9-SADAQA, 1-SUPPLY AND DEMAND, 3-BASSETT, 2-LORD ASPEN
Race 5: 10-WHEAL LEISURE, 1-QEWY, 8-VIOLATE
Race 6: 7-TAHANEE, 6-FALIKA, 2-PROMPT RESPONSE
Race 7: 5-MALAGUERRA, 2-REDZEL, 1-CHAUTAUQUA
Race 8: 7-FOLKSWOOD, 11-ODEON, 10-GINGERNUTS
Race 9: 5-TAMASA, 11-MR SO AND SO, 4-ANDAZ
