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| FLEMINGTON: STAKES DAY - 7th Nov 2015 |
| Track: HEAVY(8) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: OUT 6M |
| Betting Portfolio ($100): If punting during Cup Week wasn’t hard enough – how crazy has the track and weather been this week? We got a leader’s track on Derby Day, on pacers again on Tuesday with the middle of the track declared off limits and then a torrential storm on Oaks Day which had them splitting sides in the straight, and even coming to the outside rail in other races. Total punting headache trying to work out ahead of the day now what the racing pattern is going to be, it is entirely unpredictable. The track got a decent whack of rain on Thursday and whilst tracks can recover pretty quickly these days it is going to be tough at the end of the big week of racing and with more showers forecast heading into the weekend. Can’t see the track improving, in fact it is more likely to deteriorate. So think we are looking at a genuine slow to heavy track, with probably plenty of scratchings. They will probably be winning running on late out wide so watch out for runners on and outside barriers. Down the straight the outside rail is almost certain to be the place to be, but just be careful if they start to squash up against the outside and horses struggle for clear runs. Normally Stakes Day is a pretty good day to try for a get out if you have been struggling during Cup Week but it might be tough this week with solid favourites in most races, some pretty dodgy betting races and probably a lot of scratchings to come. No best bet today, just a few each way bets and lets try and find a reasonable dividend somewhere. Doubling up to $100 as we try to hit a decent collect at the end of Cup Week. BEST WIN Race 4: 1-DEMONSTRATE $15 WIN QUINELLA: Race 4: 1-DEMONSTRATE, 10-PALENTINO x $3 QUINELLA: Race 4: 1-DEMONSTRATE, 7-APOLOBOOM x $2 QUINELLA: Race 4: 1-DEMONSTRATE, 2-SECRET PROPHET x $2 This one has much better form than most of these and has been racing really well. Looked the winner when came down the middle of the track two starts back at Caulfield and then good effort to run on against the racing pattern at MV. Wet track no issue – in fact it is probably a plus. Main question might be up to the 1400M for the 1st time and up in distance off one run from a freshen up, but drawn out, handles it wet and should be running on strongly. Back straight out at around $6 and take in quinellas with the (10), (7), and (2). For some reason this race is often won by one coming off a maiden win so just be wary of that as well. BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 4-SENTINUM $7.50 EW You get the feeling this guy is going to pick up a good race one day. He has had some very strange race choices this time in. Won 1st up at odds in a pretty good quality race then thrown in the deep end in the Memsie when he was also ridden forward against his normal racing pattern, then dropped back in distance again the next start, which looked unsuitable. Good run here 2 starts back this track and distance when ran on well out wide on track favouring on pacers and then didn’t do that much at Caulfield. But think he is going better than his form suggests and this is much weaker. Largely unknown on wet tracks, but he is drawn out, will drop back and run on late in the best going so think the racing pattern is going to suit. Taking on trust a bit, but just think he is going to do something today. Each way at around $10. BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 8-MANAGERESS $7.50 EW This one totally loves Flemington and she was racing really well during the winter here. Strong finisher who wants distance and the track to be favouring those running on, which it almost certainly will. She has probably been set for this race all spring. Fitter for the 2 runs in, ran on really well here 1st up and then just OK at MV which is so not her track and not suited with the on pacers winning. Dropping back in the field, back to Flemington and out to 2000M is exactly what she wants. Looks a great each way bet at around $8. BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 10-ULMANN $5 EW QUINELLA: Race 9: 10-ULMANN, 9-MALAGUERRA x $4 QUINELLA: Race 9: 10-ULMANN#1,3,5,6 x $4 = 100% This one has a fair bit of ability, but just struggles to get into the right races and is often out the back and running on late. Fitter for the 3 runs in and they have all been OK and just looks ready to win today. Unknown on wet tracks, but will be suited with them running on late. Back each way at around $9 and take in a quinella with the 9-MALAGUERRA who will lead here and won on Cup Day, and you always need to respect horses that race well during Cup week backing up. For a bit of value anchor in a quinella with the (1), (3), (5) and 6-CHILE EXPRESS who is well known for running on late in his races and might get suitable conditions today. BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 3-ORIENTAL LADY $3.50 EW We are having a second bet in this race, also because it is one of the few races with a big of size and scope about this. This mare is pretty tough stayer and think she will be suited today in a tough slogging 2000M in wet ground. Had a pretty solid staying preparation and might just out last most of these. Drawn a very wide barrier, but that might be the best ground and really hasn’t been that far away her last few runs. Worth a little something each way at around $31 which looks over the odds. RUNNING DOUBLE: Races 7,8 4,6,11,13,15,16 / 3,7,8 x $18 = 100% Two of the feature races look the most likely to throw up a value result. In the Emirates although we suspect one of our tips 6-MAGIC ARTIST, 11-POLITENESS, 4-BOW CREEK will win, this race has a nasty habit of throwing up long shot winners. So go wide in a running double and throw in roughies like the 13-MAY'S DREAM, 15-CORONATION SHALLAN and 16-HE OR SHE. If something at odds gets up the double will totally blow out with a very even 2nd leg and our three selections here the 8-MANAGERESS, 3-ORIENTAL LADY, 7-BALLET SUITE are all at really good odds. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 4: 8-NGARIMU at around $3.80 This race, for some reason, is often won by last start maiden horses, as this one is – but that doesn’t mean you should go sending them around as a solid favourite. Well backed for 1st start maiden win, but never been on a wet track, into a field with plenty of different form lines and something probably steps up and wins at odds if our top pick doesn’t. Just looks poor value in what is probably a pretty even field. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. $5 ALL UP PLACE: Race 2: 4-VELOX PLACE: Race 4: 1-DEMONSTRATE PLACE: Race 6: 1-BUFFERING PLACE: Race 8: 8-MANAGERESS Let’s try for a decent collect with an All Up Place bet – because boy do we need one with the Betting Portfolio well in the red this season. Kick off with the 4-VELOX who was unlucky at MV when he couldn’t get a clear run at them, and then ridden back (grrr) at Caulfield when we tipped it and he was finishing on late in a race won by on pacers. We have already backed the Race 4: 1-DEMONSTRATE to win and he looks a pretty safe place bet as the only proven wet tracker in the field. In the feature sprint Race 6: 1-BUFFERING might surprise again going forward on wet ground and happy to forgive last start when he was taken on in the lead. Come home on the Race 8: 8-MANAGERESS who we have also already backed, but want some extra collect on. Looking at around a $200 collect for the $5, though odds might drop if there are a lot of scratchings. |
| The Tips: Race 1: EARLY 2YO. WAIT FOR THE SUN TO COME OUT. Race 2: 4-VELOX, 10-DIVAN, 13-NESBO Race 3: 4-BONFIRE, 2-DANDINO, 5-BOLD SNIPER Race 4: 1-DEMONSTRATE, 10-PALENTINO, 7-APOLOBOOM Race 5: 4-SENTINUM, 6-DEFIANT ANGEL, 8-HARADA BAY Race 6: 2-CHAUTAUQUA, 1-BUFFERING, 6-FLAMBERGE Race 7: 6-MAGIC ARTIST, 11-POLITENESS, 4-BOW CREEK Race 8: 8-MANAGERESS, 3-ORIENTAL LADY, 7-BALLET SUITE Race 9: 10-ULMANN, 9-MALAGUERRA, 6-CHILE EXPRESS |
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| RACE 7: EMIRATES STAKES 1600M GROUP 1 |
| Tips: 6-MAGIC ARTIST 11-POLITENESS 4-BOW CREEK |
| Others: 3,13,15,16 Pace: GENUINE Leaders: 3-TURN ME LOOSE, 7-ECUADOR Handy: 2-AROD (wide), 5-DISPOSITION, 12-SONS OF JOHN, 14-ROCK STURDY, 15-CORONATION SHALLAN (wide) Back: 1-LUCKY HUSSLER, 4-BOW CREEK, 6-MAGIC ARTIST, 8-MESSENE, 9-MORIARTY, 10-AMOVATIO, 11-POLITENESS, 12-SONS OF JOHN, 13-MAY'S DREAM, 16-HE OR SHE Chances: 3-TURN ME LOOSE is a tough NZ on pacer miler who is racing in flying form. Just beaten here at first Australian run giving a fair bit of weight to the horse who beat him and then jumped and led and gave nothing else a chance in the Seymour Cup. Suited by the on pace bias at MV and really never looked like getting beaten. Should handle a wet track just fine and there shouldn’t be too much pressure up front here. The main issue is going to be leading on a day when off the rails is likely to be the best going and he will need to steer to the middle of the track in the straight which will leave him vulnerable. Have to respect that he is in great form though. Chance. 4-BOW CREEK is an international racing for a local stable now, who put in a very eye catching performance at his first start in Australia. Held up for runs around the home turn and took a little while to get into clear running, but when he did he stormed home late and got very close to the winner. That was a huge run. Good win strike rate and shouldn’t have any issues with the wet track here. We don’t have much to go on, but that MV run was pretty bloody good, he is drawn out to sit back and get into the best part of the track and looks a live chance in this. Chance. 6-MAGIC ARTIST is an import who was incredibly unlucky in the Mackinnon here last week when he was full of running but stuck on the rails with nowhere to go. Probably should have won if he had got clear running – he was in tight running most of the way down the straight and couldn’t be ridden out to the line. Best form is over the 2000M overseas, but with the wet track this is probably going to be a pretty solid 1600M race anyway. Likely to drop well back here and go to the middle of the track for his runs which should be the place to be. Reckon you also need to respect horses who have run well during Cup week who back up again – and he definitely ticks that box. Strong chance. 11-POLITENESS is another who is difficult to catch, but she has always shown a stack of ability and they seem to have got her ticking over just right now and she is in career best form. Have to respect a horse coming into a race with three wins on end. We always had her tagged as best on wet ground, in races with a fast speed and on tracks where they are running on OK – so that would put her right in the mix today. Was a very impressive win here last week, especially because she was stepping up in distance and because nothing else won running on for the whole day. She is simply flying. Drawn middle to get to the outside and run on in the best ground. Last week was her first win over 1600M and suspect it is as far as she wants – and she might get outlasted by one of the internationals here, but you just have to respect her form. Strong chance. 13-MAY'S DREAM is a good, strong finishing miler on her day and she has been pretty unlucky not to win a race this time in because she has been racing really well. Fitter for the 4 runs in, probably should have won when held up here in blanket finish 2nd up and then ridden forward early against normal racing pattern at MV when not beaten far. Made a good run here last week but got run down by those out wide. She is racing pretty well, has drawn wide which might be a plus and likes to run on late out wide which should be the racing pattern. Soft track win was her maiden and think she is much better on top of the ground. The (11) came from behind her last week and went straight past her so think that one has her measure. Stable won the Cup on Tuesday. She has been racing well and will be suited running on, so a rough chance. Rough. Place: 1-LUCKY HUSSLER is one of our favourites and class sprinter miler with a great finishing burst – but to be honest we haven’t actually backed him this spring as yet. He has been racing really well too, poking up on the rails 1st up, before not having much room to finish off 2nd up in the Rupert Clarke with a big weight. He came out 3rd up and won the Toorak in style and both the horses he beat that day went on to win their next start in good races – so the form really stacks up. Sent out a short priced favourite in the MV Crystal Mile, and he loomed on the home turn but couldn’t go on with it. It will be very interesting to see how he goes today against the (3) who beat him last start, as we think it was the leaders bias at MV that won that one the race - this one loomed up but couldn’t go on, and suspect on a fair track it would have been pretty close. He only actually just gets the mile and was a narrow 2nd in this race last year. Boss seems to know how to ride him too, winning 3 times so far on him, including a sensational Group 1 1200M sprint win earlier in the year. Drawn inside and he is best ridden back and running on – and will want to get to the middle of the track here. The soft track is probably a bit of a query and a heavy track definitely so. Would love to tip him today, but reckon he only just gets 1600M and the wet track is going to be an issue. He is the class horse of this field though so may be able to offset that. Place. 5-DISPOSITION has been racing extremely well this spring and has been in the finish of every start he has contested. Has to be said though he has also had every chance in each of those races, he races handy and puts himself into the race at the right time, so gives himself every chance. Good win here last Saturday and that race is often a good guide to this one – but seriously why on earth the rest of the field came off the rails, on a leaders’ track – and gave him a perfect run through in the best going is still a mystery. We suspect he might be slightly suspect at the 1600M and especially a strong 1600M on a wet track. He hasn’t been beaten far in his races – but just reckon he has had every chance. Won here at his only wet track start last week , but again remember the field magically opened up for him that day. Excellent win strike rate, only missed the place once now in 12 career starts, and should go forward and sit handy again here, but prefer him as a place chance. Place. 7-ECUADOR is a Sydney miler with an excellent win/place strike rate, but he just hasn’t seemed to gone up that one level when tried in the top grade. Excellent effort in the Epsom when was only beaten by the eventual impressive Cox Plate winner. We liked him last week in the Mackinnon – basically because a leader just about always win that race (and one did – just not the one we picked) and he sat just off the speed that day and wasn’t beaten very far. He is much better suited back at the 1600M here today and guess last week’s run was pretty good. Wet track form is really good too – in fact he is probably better on wet ground. Draw a middle barrier and they will go forward more aggressively than last week when they were probably trying to make sure he ran out a trip he was a bit suspect at. He can push forward here and make the (3) work for the lead if need be. Likely to end up in the wrong part of the track though and suspect they will be winning coming down the middle of the track. Last week’s run wasn’t too bad, he is better at a mile and the soft ground suits. Rough. 12-SONS OF JOHN is a Sydney miler with a good win/place strike rate and placed in the Epsom. Settled on the rails at MV which should have been the best going and was well held, even though he was checked and not ridden out to the line – he was going backwards anyways. Has won past 1600M which is a big plus for a wet track mile slog. Drawn inside and normally races handy so think that means he gets stuck back towards the inside here in the worse going. Note the huge weight drop though from last start – 59kgs at WFA down to 52.kgs here in a handicap and does have excellent wet track form. Rough place chance only. 15-CORONATION SHALLAN is the rank outsider of this field but is actually in pretty good form and that is one thing that the Cup result taught us – never underestimate horses that are racing in good form. 4th up and been up in distance every start so probably still has improvement to come. Jumped and led and kicked at MV – but the leaders were winning that day. Worth noting though that the 2nd horse ran very well last week here. Excellent 1600M record, and handles wet ground. Placed in the Winter Championship here in July. Drawn wide and does normally race on speed so that is going to be an issue as does look like he will get caught out wide here. But last start winner with no weight, good 1600M form and wet track form think he is a good roughie for those wanting a big trifecta dividend. Rough place. 16-HE OR SHE has been thereabouts in most runs this time in and stable must have some opinion of him – they scratched him from an easier race on Tuesday to run in this which is always a positive sign. Win strike rate is excellent, but that is mainly from previous WA form. Dropped back to a much weaker race to win last start, though guess the place getter did win here on Thursday. Had every chance last few before that when seemed to get back a bit too far and run on too late –but he is likely to be suited by the racing pattern here today. From the outside barrier they can just ride him cold out the back of the field and swoop down the middle. Only ever seen a wet track once so hard to know, but suspect it might be an issue. Lightly raced, good win strike rate, last start winner, swooper guess that puts him in as some rough chance. Rough. Sacking: 2-AROD is an international bought over here for the Cox Plate, and he started well supported but disappointed. He over raced in that race and pulled up a bit worse for wear. Good form in the UK before that and he is a tough rolling on pacer who might be suited by the slogging conditions come race day. Drawn outside and he does like to race forward, but guess he could stay three wide in the best ground and get to the middle of the track. A well beaten international from the Cox Plate came out and won the Mackinnon here last Saturday, so guess you shouldn’t write him off completely. Bit hard to back with any confidence coming off a poor run though. No 8-MESSENE has a pretty good win strike rate, but hasn’t shown his best form for a fair while and seems to be struggling for form a little. Didn’t do much here last week against some of these – but again that was a leaders’ track and he did settle back in the field. Ran on OK in runs prior to that and runs a solid 1600M – 4 times winner. Soft track win was a maiden at his 2nd start, so maybe don’t get too excited by his wet track form. Just doesn’t seem to be going well enough. No 9-MORIARTY seems to have been around forever, but you know what he likes. 2000M, running on , and a firm track. Soft and heavy track form is really ordinary and that is going to be a major issue here. Fitter for the 4 runs in and has been running on OK. Did run 3rd in the Mackinnon here in 2013. Drawn inside and will be at the back of the field here and wanting to get to the middle of the track. Just doesn’t seem to be going well enough at the moment. No 10-AMOVATIO is a horse that we just cannot catch and he was stung a few times in recent months. He has been racing in career best form, winning 3 times in a row, and has been leaving it rather late in his career to suddenly start rising through the grades. Dropped well back at MV and had no chance the way the track was racing. Won the Winter Championship here in July but the Group 1 Emirates is another step up again. Does like to drop well back in the run and is one that will be suited if they are winning running on. Soft track form is just OK. Just looks outclassed against this lot. No 14-ROCK STURDY is a Sydney galloper who has done most of his racing over shorter trips. Adelaide jockey with an amazing habit of riding good value Cup Week winners goes on board. Fitter for the 4 runs in and has been going up in distance each time so should be right at peak today. Was OK two starts back at Caulfield and then nicked back to Sydney when he had to lump weight and wasn’t beaten too far. Likely to settle just off the speed in this and will be caught wide – but that might be the best going? Just doesn’t seem to be going well enough to win this. No. Summary: This race takes on a different complexion this year with two internationals appearing, both coming off really good Australian runs. Not sure about the quality of the rest of the field and think many are suspect at the 1600M, and they might get found out there on a wet track 16000M with some international form to keep them honest. The way the track is playing is going to be a key factor here, but it is almost certainly going to be better ground out in the middle of the track on a track that is deteriorating due to rain. This race can throw up the odd upset and normally they are horses with large numbers down the bottom of the weights, so keep an eye out for last start winners the 15-CORONATION SHALLAN and 16-HE OR SHE. The pace here should be genuine, with the 3-TURN ME LOOSE, 7-ECUADOR leading and they might not get that much pressure from the rest of the field. But they are going to find if hard if they need to come off the rails in the straight to search for the best going and they will give the runners on their chance. So going with the runners on here. The 6-MAGIC ARTIST was really unlucky here last week in the Mackinnon when he didn’t get clear running and always respect horses who run well during Cup week that are backing up again. Does drop back to the 1600M, but like that he is racing over further for a wet track 1600M slog. The main danger is the 11-POLITENESS who wants a wet track favouring runners on and gets just that, and backing up off good form last Saturday as well. The 4-BOW CREEK was excellent at MV as well. Suspect one of these swoop down the middle of the track to win this (though make sure that is the racing pattern before getting on!). Can probably back all three depending on what the odds come up as and one of the three should really win. One to risk: 5-DISPOSITION Roughie: 13-MAY'S DREAM The Key: Run a really strong mile. |
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