Come back punters – there is still Sandown!.
After being a work horse for most of the year Sandown gets a break when all the spring racing action is at its peak. But don’t forget Sandown Classic Day, which is often a pretty good betting day. We have some proper rain forecast the next few days, and Sandown always gets more rain than most, so we should be safely into the SOFT range come race day. We might see some form turn arounds too coming off a pretty dry spring. We have seen a spring where on pacers have dominated most feature meetings, and even though Sandown has the long straight and normally favours those finishing on late, this is also the longest break it gets all year so we have seen even this meeting favouring on pacers previously. Suspect the rain will even things out though and every horse should have it’s chance.
The “feature” Sandown Classic is always one of the hardest races of the spring to look at. It always attracts small fields, at WFA with lots of non-WFA horses, lots of horses going for consolation prizes after missing their spring targets – really hard to line up the form. There doesn’t look to be much speed either with just the 3-ASSIGN leading, and will be interesting to see how hard they go in front with his stable mate the 1-ALMANDIN wanting a genuine tempo. Often the winner of this race comes through the Melbourne Cup, and pretty keen on the 2-BIG DUKE here. He has been racing well all spring, got no room in the MV Cup and fought on well in the Melbourne Cup. Think the rain is a big bonus for him too. Put the fresh international on the scene the 8-THE TAJ MAHAL as the main danger and fresh internationals have featured in this race in recent years. The 4-BERISHA , who has been mixing his form, but ran on well from well back on a leaders track with a big weight last start the value runner. Just going around the favourite the 1-ALMANDIN a bit, on class and weights he should be suited in this event, but just didn’t like the way he didn’t finish it off in the Melbourne Cup, despite being caught wide early. Pretty keen to have a solid win bet on the top pick here, the 2-BIG DUKE coming off the best Melbourne Cup run.
We think this is actually a pretty good betting day and you can have a solid win bet on a $4 to $6 chance in most of these races and most of the favourites look pretty hard to beat. We can’t see there being many big dividends here either.
BEST BET : Race 7: 2-BIG DUKE $6 WIN
Consistent stayer with a really good win strike rate who was unlucky in the MV Cup when not much room along the inside, and then toughed out the finish in the Melbourne Cup really well. Much better ridden quieter and coming late with a run, and also on wet ground which he should get here. Has just been racing better, and in harder races than most of these and looks the one to beat. Have a confident straight out win bet at around $3.40 and we are also going to take a quaddie with him one out in the Wonder Bet.
BEST WIN: Race 4: 3-ILLUSTRIOUS LAD $4 WIN
Race 4: 3-ILLUSTRIOUS LAD, 4-JUNGLE EDGE x $2 = 200%
Race 4: 3-ILLUSTRIOUS LAD, 6-BASSETT x $2 = 200%
Pretty consistent sprinter when right and he should be fitter for the 2 runs in which have both been good. 1st up he jumped and went forward and fought out the race pretty well and then wasn’t disgraced 2nd up down the straight, when had to give weight to the whole field, including some smart sprinters. Jumped and went forward and ran 2nd in this race last year and he should go pretty close to winning again this year. There are two leaders here, the 1-BURNING FRONT and the 4-JUNGLE EDGE, and he should just sit behind them and get the run of the race. Back straight out at around $4.40 and the quinella should still pay OK with the mud loving 4-JUNGLE EDGE and the unlucky last start 6-BASSETT.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 8-LAND OF PLENTY $4 EW
One that has been building to something all spring, running some good races in harder company, but has still only won the one race from 14 starts. We have been avoiding him all spring as he tends to drop back and run on late for an eye catching placing, but think we will get on today. Long Sandown straight will suit, drawn to get to the outside and run on, and he ran on pretty well last start. Just seems to have found the right race today so have something each way at around $6.50
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 3-BLACK SAIL $4 EW
Up and comer who has been racing really consistently, and he could have easily won his last three starts when he has hit the lead in all of them in the last 200M. Got run down at Caulfield two starts back coming off a furious tempo, and then just couldn’t grab a leader at Flemington when he did look to have the race won. Drawn well, should position handy, and should present at the right time again in the finish and like that he is coming off an 1800M run back to a tough 1600M 3YO feature race. Each way at around $8 in one of the more open races of the day.
BEST ROUGH: Race 2: 12-LILAS $2 EW
One of the more open races of the day and we want to look for some value in a big field. This one was really good her first two starts, finishing on strongly and showing a fair bit of potential. Then jockey totally messed up the ride at Caulfield when ridden aggressively forward in a speed battle and they all came badly unstuck. Given a freshen up, change in jockey and probably ridden more quietly today thinks she is going to do something at around $25.
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 9-DANCE WITH FONTEIN $2 EW
QUINELLA: RACE 6: 2,5,8,9,11 x $5 = 50%
Very open 1000M sprint race and think this one is ready to do something today. Fitter for the 2 runs in, good career win strike rate, and excellent track and distance stats. Fought it out really well last start down the straight in a much harder race and looks value here at around $26. Likely to be some value in a quinella in a big field, so box up the other value chance the 8-LADY ESPRIT, the favourite the 2-GUN CASE, the track specialist the 11-MOTOWN LIL and the consistent 5-ROCK’N’GOLD.
BEST ROUGH: Race 10: 7-JALAN JALAN $1 EW
Why not end the spring with a $50 shot in the last race! This one showed huge potential early on in her career and then had an injury lay off and has never got back to her best. Win strike is starting to look a bit ordinary, but she hit the line well at Caulfield two starts back and then was ridden forward against normal pattern at Flemington in a race where they went too hard and the swoopers dominated. Outside barrier today, ridden quieter, swooping late and think the trick to her might be she wants a soft track which she will get. A little get out at around $50 to finish off the spring and think she will run a lot better than her odds suggest.
LAY OF THE DAY : Race 2: 5-YULONG XINGSHENG at around $4.80
Current favourite in a fairly wide open race, and last run was fair, but not overly impressive at Flemington. Has been thereabouts in her races, but has been mainly finishing well beaten fourths and in a big even field something at odds will probably pop up and suddenly improve. Think the odds are poor value and keener to back others.
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more.
QUAD; Races 7,8,9,10: 2 / 1,3,9,11 / 5,6,7 / 5,7,8,12 x $5 = 10.42%
We should be able to give the quaddie a shake here for a minimal outlay. Happy to go one out on the 2-BIG DUKE in the feature race first leg, and at least we get the anchor leg out of the way early on. The other three races all have clear cut favourites, who should go close to winning, but if one or more of them don’t the dividend should open up nicely. So we just need a value runner like the 11-I’LL HAVE A BIT, the 5-NOZOMI or 7-DODGING BULETS, or the 7-JALAN JALAN or 12-RED IS THE ROSE to land to make it worth our while.
Race 1: EARLY 2YO. GO MARVEL AT THE CONCRETE INFRASTRUCTURE
Race 2: 3-LUQYAA, 12-LILAS, 13-SHAGRA
Race 3: 4-SWACADELIC, 2-GALLIC CHIEFTAIN, 3-FANATIC
Race 4: 3-ILLUSTRIOUS LAD, 4-JUNGLE EDGE, 6-BASSETT
Race 5: 8-LAND OF PLENTY, 6-DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR, 2-HELLOVA STREET
Race 6: 9-DANCE WITH FONTEIN, 2-GUN CASE, 8-LADY ESPRIT
Race 7: 2-BIG DUKE, 8-THE TAJ MAHAL, 4-BERISHA
Race 8: 3-BLACK SAIL, 9-VILLERMONT, 11-I’ll HAVE A BIT
Race 9: 6-RAW IMPULSE, 5-NOZOMI, 7-DODGING BULLETS
Race 10: 5-INVINCIBELLA, 8-PETITION, 7-JALAN JALAN
