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| SANDOWN: SANDOWN CLASSIC - 14th Nov 2015 |
| Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: CLOUDY - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): As so we end up here at Sandown, yet again at the end of another Spring Campaign. They haven’t raced at Sandown for months now, whilst all the other tracks have had their silly spring parties. So we should get a perfect racing surface. This meeting switches between the Lakeside and Hillside track every couple of years, but we are racing on the Hillside this year. Last year this racing pattern strongly favoured those running on late, which is often does here, so keep an eye out and keep this in mind when betting during the day. Note that the feature race didn’t even make it to be a leg of the quaddie! This is actually always a great meeting to finish off spring, normally there are still a few good horses around but there is always plenty of value and variety in the fields. And there is no better way to finish off spring than a 20 horse mares races. They should end every race day like that – at least if you find the winner you get a chance to get out for the day. Betting wise stick to the good horses, but you can go wide in trifectas for the placings and there should be some pretty decent dividends. BEST WIN: Race 4: 2-CHARMED HARMONY $6 WIN QUINELLA: Race 4: 2-CHARMED HARMONY, 8-GOOD PROJECT x $2 = 200% QUINELLA: Race 4: 2-CHARMED HARMONY#5,6,7,10 x $2 = 50% This one has been super consistent for the last few months, jumping and leading and winning and has had a sensational preparation. Stepped up to the tougher grades and really wasn’t beaten that far in the Group 1 Rupert Clarke. Then fought on really well on Derby Day when the jockey really should have pushed forward to the rails which was the better going, instead of being caught in the middle of the track. Held off his rivals there, apart from those who got a dream run along the rails from well back. Should lead without much too trouble here, and that is how he runs his best runs – running to a clear lead. Past 1400M he isn’t a dominant, and he does prefer more give in the ground, so maybe the Sandown 1500M might be a slight query, especially giving weight to most of these, but he is just racing so well you have to trust him here. Back straight out to win at around $5, take a quinella with the main danger the 8-GOOD PROJECT who was really good late at Flemington, and go again with some value roughies in the quinella like the (5), (6), (7), (10). BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 4-TALL SHIP $4 EW The fresh horse on the scene might be the one to beat in the feature race (which is Race 5). Has been running on well in all his lead up runs, and although he hasn’t really got into the finish suspect he is going a lot better than his form suggests. Much better suited out to the 2400M and suspect he is going to rapidly improve today – just was expecting much better odds in a WFA race. Form doesn’t read that flash with a string of well beaten 8ths, but he is going better than that. Currently around $5.50, would have preferred around $8 to $10, but maybe he will drift in the betting come race day. Should run on and get into the finish and looks a solid each way bet. BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 5-DE LITTLE ENGINE $4 EW QUINELLA: Race 8: 5-DE LITTLE ENGINE, 1-THE OFFER x $2 This one has always shown so much potential but did have a nasty habit of starting short odds, dropping back and running on for 3rd or 4th. Just seems to want 2500M+, and even 2500M doesn’t quite seem to do it. Ran on well in the Geelong Cup and then win over 2800M at Flemington on Cup Day was very impressive- he came along the best ground along the rails, but was finishing very strongly over the top of them. The big, long Sandown straight and the 3200M should be just what he wants and he still gets in at the bottom of the weights here. Looks the one to beat at around $6, but also wouldn’t want much shorter in a big staying field. Also take a quinella with the (1) who we think is the main danger at the top of the weights off an OK Melbourne Cup run and that should pay OK in a big field. BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 10-TRISTRAM’S SUN $4 EW This was actually more of a Best Each Way bet, but seeing he is around $20, we should really call him a roughie. Been racing really well this time in and stepping up in distance each start, and won the Kyneton Cup for the second year in a row last week. Really honest type who has a good win strike rate and is proven over further than the 1800M here and think that is important at Sandown with the long run home. More importantly, he was won three times at Sandown Hillside and seems to be a bit of a track specialist. A lot of speed in this race, and think the on pacers might knock each other out, so prefer to be on something running on. Looks really good each way value at around $20. BEST ROUGH: Race 3: 5-GRACIOUS PROSPECT $2 EW This one just always seems to be in the finish, doesn’t win out of turn, but is normally a pretty reliable each way bet. The 4-UNDER THE LOUVRE is definitely the one to beat here, he has stung punters a few times now this spring, but the drop in distance back to 1300M should suit him. But this isn’t a big field and there isn’t much speed and the (5) just loves sitting on speed in these races and getting into the finish. Fitter for the 2 runs in, and especially stepping up from 1000M to 1400M and thought he was really good at Flemington last week when he loomed nicely in the straight. Probably not suited under this weight scale, but still looks way over the odds at around $34? Way, way over the odds. Great rough chance. QUINELLA Race 7: 2,6,8,12,14 boxed x $5 = 50% Always find the Sandown Guineas a bit of a funny race. Often think you need to watch out for the fresher horses on the scene, but also it seems to be often won by horses who are looking for further than 1600M. The 12-DON’T DOUBT MAMMA is the class horse of the field, and one to beat, but did get beaten last time she tried the 1600M. The 14-MAYSAM is the fresh one on the way up and was really good out wide in the worse going at Flemington last start, and note they could have run her in Race 2, but have gone for a much harder race – so stable must think the run was OK as well. The 6-PATCH ADAMS was good late on Derby Day and should run out the 1600M here. Even the 8-SEA OF TRANQUILITY might do something at odds on the improve. Box them all up in a quinella and suspect something at odds will get into the finish in this. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 2: 12-MICONDESA at around $5.50 Was heavily backed to win her maiden and was pretty impressive doing so, but it is very rare that they can go on at their next start, especially not up in class and drawn wide (and she does like to race forward). Sure to get support, but she is carrying equal weights to those with good city form and reckon you are always better looking for horses at value in these sort of races and prefer to risk. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. Race 9: TRIFECTA: 1,9 / 1,5,8,9,12 / 1,4,5,6,8,9,12 x $5= 12.5% As we said in the preview, there is no better get out than landing the trifecta in the last race of spring in a field of 20 mares. Think you want to be on the class horses here, the 1-SOLICIT who is fitter for the 2 runs in and they have both been good, and the 9-BALLET SUITE who was scratched last week because of the wet track. Anchor them to win, and throw in some good value rough chances into the placings like the 8-ANFITRIONA and the 12-LILY DAZZLER and hope to land a value trifecta. Suspect one or more runners at odds will get into the finish here, so don’t be scared to throw more runners in for third. Think there is a good chance the trifecta will pay $2000 plus here, and plus it is the only chance we have to get out for spring in the Betting Portfolio – so the dream bet goes on in the last race. Dare to dream – and you can walk home later. |
| The Tips: Race 1: EARLY 2YO RACE. ADMIRE THE CONCRETE Race 2: 6-IRADA, 8-MISS WILSON, 4-QUEEN OF WANDS Race 3: 4-UNDER THE LOUVRE, 5-GRACIOUS PROSPECT, 3-GENERALIFE Race 4: 2-CHARMED HARMONY, 8-GOOD PROJECT, 10-HARADA BAY Race 5: 4-TALL SHIP, 6-RISING ROMANCE, 1-DANDINO Race 6: 10-TRISTRAM’S SUN, 5-MALICE, 11-CASINO DANCER Race 7: 12-DON’T DOUBT MAMMA, 14-MAYSAM, 6-PATCH ADAMS Race 8: 5-DE LITTLE ENGINE, 1-THE OFFER, 7-MAYGROVE Race 9: 1-SOLICIT, 9-BALLET SUITE, 8-ANFITRIONA |
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| RACE 5: SANDOWN CLASSIC 2400M GROUP 1 WFA |
| Tips: 4-TALL SHIP 6-RISING ROMANCE 1-DANDINO |
| Others: 7 Pace: SLOW Leaders: 5-DON DOREMO, 6-RISING ROMANCE Handy: 2-WHO SHOT THEBARMAN, 3-SERTORIOUS Back: 1-DANDINO, 4-TALL SHIP, 7-KIRRAMOSA, 8-DO YOU REMEMBER Chances: 1-DANDINO is pretty much the only horse in this field with some genuine form. Import who had a great spring here in 2013 running close up in both the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups, before struggling for form back overseas. Bought back here for a local preparation and seems to have regained his form. Had 7 runs this time in, but he has been holding his form well and competitive in most of his races. Was an eye catcher in both the Underwood and the Turnbull when not suited at WFA and running on well off unsuitable slow tempos. Then chased home a pretty smart one in the Geelong Cup when the first two were well ahead of the rest of the field. Always looked the winner last Saturday at Flemington when he sat off them, again in another small field with not much form. He did race a little erratically last start and almost cost himself a race on protest. Drops back to the 2400M here but should be suited as a strong finisher on this track that often favours those coming from well back – even if there is very little genuine speed in this race. Strong chance, but wouldn’t want to take too short odds on him. 4-TALL SHIP is a very promising stayer with a very good win strike rate who put together a string of country cup wins earlier in the year. Had a later start to the spring and has probably been set for this race, unlike many of the others who are going here as an after thought after missing their main spring targets. He has been slowly improving with each step up in distance and looks much better suited out to the 2400M here. Form past 2000M in Australia is excellent. Flemington run was much better than it looked in a race dominated by those on speed and he was well back and struggling for clear running room and finished on well. Definitely looking for further now. Does tend to drop well back in the field and run on, but that should be the racing pattern today and even in the small field he should have his chance. Lot to like about him, he is the fresh horse on the scene here and looks to be having an experience campaign to get him ready for bigger and better things next year. WFA is the test against these, but most of these are not genuine WFA horses anyways. Strong chance. 6-RISING ROMANCE is a classy staying mare who has put in some good runs this time in. Had a great spring last year when she kicked clear in the straight in the Caulfield Cup and looked the winner until being run down late. Given a traditional WFA lead up into the Cups and she was going OK without being overly impressive and then was probably a bit disappointing in the Caulfield Cup this year when she was caught wide but didn’t do much. Excellent run in the Mackinnon when she sat handy and on pacers were winning that day and just couldn’t get past the leader. Likely leader here in a small field and will pretty much dictate the tempo as she wishes – so keep an eye on the racing pattern, but it normally favours those running on here. Excellent 2400M record and the firm track suits. She probably has the best WFA form out of this field too. Strong chance. 7-KIRRAMOSA is the Oaks winner of 2013 who had a long break due to injury after that. Struggled for form in come back preparation last spring, but has been going better this time in and has been running on well most starts. Finally got out to a suitable distance in the Bendigo Cup and finished on very strongly and should be a lot fitter for that run. Big track here will suit and she is a strong finisher who will be suited by the likely racing pattern. Chance. Place: 2-WHO SHOT THEBARMAN is a classy stayer who just hasn’t found the right races this time in and you can’t be quite sure how he is going. Melbourne Cup and Sydney Cup place getter, and was in top notch winning form last spring. Autumn preparation was pretty good when he was running on OK in most races, and looked the winner in the Sydney Cup before being swamped by one late. He has been working home OK this spring, but not really getting into the finish of his races – so it is a bit hard to know if he is just teasing us or not. Was caught very wide in the Turnbull and again in the Caulfield Cup and both runs were very similar, he ran on OK, but didn’t really challenge. He loomed just after they straightened in the Melbourne Cup and looked a winning chance – he did get tightened but appeared to be dying on his run when it happened. Guess they wouldn’t back him up after a Melbourne Cup unless they thought he had more to give. This is much, much easier and he might sit on speed today. Just a bit difficult to know exactly how he is going and prefer place. Place. 5-DON DOREMO was a highly promising horse last year but he has been struggling for form this spring. Good form earlier in the year and had a crack at the Sydney Cup where the wet track probably did not suit. Really should have been thereabouts in a country cup this spring, but just has not produced, and ended up going around at $101 in the Geelong Cup. Was surprised to see him poke up on the inside last week at Flemington and actually look like the winner early in the straight, and he battled on OK there. Not sure about that form – it was a very small field and there were a lot of out of form horses in that race. Note he is very badly weighted off that run into a WFA race. He is probably the leader here and maybe that last run was a sign that he was about to run back into form? Place best. Sacking: 3-SERTORIOUS is normally a very genuine type but he hasn’t really been competitive this spring and seemed to go around in the Melbourne Cup mainly for the participation certificate. That was actually probably his best run this spring, he ran on well there and did pass quite a few in the straight. This is more his type of race and he has run some good races at WFA in the past. Will probably sit up on the speed in a small field and in a slowly run race and have every chance. Struggling to be convinced about how well he is going this time in though. No 8-DO YOU REMEMBER is the rank outsider of the field and is a South African import who has only had the 1 run in the last two years and didn’t get much support at MV at her first Australian start. Big challenge to win this race 2nd up, up 800M off a long, long break in a new country. No Summary: Small field again in this race and normally it isn’t a real WFA race with most of the genuine WFA horses well and truly on their summer vacation. So watch out for the genuine WFA horses and 6-RISING ROMANCE appears to be the only one in that category. The other thing to watch out for is fresh horses on the scene, as often this is a consolation prize for horses that have missed their main spring goals and sometimes they are either not racing in the best form, or have had enough this time in. Small field, so there shouldn’t be much speed at all, and expect 5-DON DOREMO and 6-RISING ROMANCE to be setting the speed. Thing is speed often isn’t that important in this race, due to the long Sandown straight and the racing pattern often favouring those running on regardless. Going to go for the fresh horse on the scene here this spring, the 4-TALL SHIP. Has been running on OK in his lead up runs and the last run at Flemington was good and he will be suited finally getting out to a staying trip here. Can see him finishing on late over the top of them here. The 6-RISING ROMANCE is obviously the one to beat, real WFA form and setting the speed, and elevate if the racing pattern is suiting her, and the other obvious danger is the 1-DANDINO in winning form and running on late. Probably going to have something each way on the top pick though as the fresh horse on the scene, though have to say he does look way under the odds at the moment at around $6 coming off a string of 8ths. One to risk: - Roughie: 5-DON DOREMO The Key: Fresh horse on the scene |
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