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Sportsbet are offering money back if your horse runs 2nd in the Sandown Guineas |
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| SANDOWN: SANDOWN CLASSIC - 15th November 2014 |
| Track: GOOD(3) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Note that the meeting this year is on the Sandown Hillside course. Clouds and some rain coming our way on Saturday, but most likely not till later in the day so most of this program should be unaffected. Just looking back over spring, there really has not been a rain affected track at all! Poor mudlarks. There is often a distinct racing pattern on this day as Sandown rarely gets a break from year round racing. Last Sandown Hillside meeting was shocking with the rail well out, and the runners on were wining every race and the track got a lot of criticism. Rail has gone back in to the TRUE position so there should be plenty of fresh ground and every horse should have its chance, but you can never go wrong backing on pacers at these feature meetings. At the end of a long spring, just watch out for fresh horses on the scene here. Found this a really annoying program to do the form for actually. Awful lot of clear cut short priced favourites and doubt it is going to be that simple. Also really unclear when the rain is going to come through on Saturday arvo, so just be prepared to change bets accordingly. There is a real lack of speed in most of these races and although you can normally run on OK at Sandown, these fields just seem over burdened with drop back types. BEST BET: Race 5: 4-PRINCE OF PENZANCE $7 WIN QUINELLA: Race 5: 4-PRINCE OF PENZANCE, 7-RAWNAQ x $2 Really not much in the way of form in the feature race the Sandown Classic and the (4) is the only won with solid consistent form. Has been racing really well and like the way he slots in behind the speed and finishes off well, the lack of speed here shouldn’t bother him as he has a good turn of foot. Not a WFA horse, then neither are most of his rivals. Back straight out at around $3.40, and save on a quinella with the best rough chance by far, the 7-RAWNAQ who is the fresh horse on the scene and might have a lot of improvement to come. BEST BET: Race 4: 7-RENEW $6 WIN Tough Sandown 3200M and you always want a real tough staying type in this race and this guy just looks the winner. Import come local who really hadn’t shown any form at all till last start, but really liked the way the first two home at Flem extended away from them and he really seemed to stay to the line. Gets the best out of the weights from that race, he drops in weight, most of his rivals from that race rise in weight into this. Probably wants some speed on and there isn’t a heap of speed in this race, but the long Sandown straight and the 3200M should suit and he looks the strongest stayer in this field. Back straight out at around $4.40 seems pretty reasonable odds. BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 4-ANOTHER PRELATE $2.50 EW There is a short priced favourite in this race the (2) who was super unlucky last start and is the one to beat, but actually prefer to back this one each way at the $17 odds available, Fitter for 3 runs in, been racing pretty well and tends to keep form when he finds it. Strong finishing type who can sit a little handy if required and just seems great odds for one who has been racing so well. Back each way, and we are backing him again to place in the Turf Deli Wonder Bet to try and kick off a big collect. BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 9-ZABISCO $5 EW QUINELLA: Race 6: 5,6,7,8,9 boxed x $5 = 50% This is one of the more even betting races of the day and looking towards fresher horses. The (9) here has had two runs back from a long spell and they have both been pretty good and you think there would be a fair bit of improvement to come. Chased home hard 1st up at Seymour and then loomed up out wide in the straight at Flem, but they were winning on the rails that day and he died on his run. Should improve off that and like that he has put himself into the race the last two runs, means he is close to a win. Back each way at around $8, bit surprised at the odds actually, thought he would be double those odds, so maybe better on the tote on the day. In an open race, take a box quinella as well, with the 5-BEL THOR who ran on well last start too, but needs some rain, the 6-ESCADO who has been racing really well, but doesn’t win that often and also needs some rain, the track specialist the 8-TRISTRAM’S SUN and the likely leader the 7-EXTRA ZERO. BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 8-CHILL PARTY $3 EW This one seems to be improving rather rapidly through his grades and really liked the run at Flem when had to switch outside runners to make a run and really came hard on the line. Strong finishing type over 1800M means he should be strong at the end of the Sandown 1600M. Again lack of speed in this race is a concern, but drawn a nice barrier if they can position a bit closer today might cause the upset at around $26. BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 7-NEAREST TO PIN $2 EW Going to tip a bit of an upset in the sprint race, the first thing that sticks out is that there are no leaders at all. Just a big field full of back markers. Bit hard to tell how the track is going to be racing and when the rain is going to come, but the (7) here should position perfectly on the speed and give himself every chance. 1st up run looks a bit disappointing on paper, but maybe pay to forgive it, he changed runs dramatically and the leading pack seemed to run away from him, but he was working home again well on the line. Normally extremely consistent, and on his best form, sitting on speed here with not much pressure might run better than expected at around $18. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 2: 1-SPEEDINESS at around $5.50 Dropping back in class and slightly in distance but has been mixing his form badly this time in and does have a nasty habit of looming up like the winner and not winning, or missing the start, or running on late, or well just not winning. Giving 5kgs to the rest of the field, and really the favourite the (2) looks the one to beat. Maybe a chance if some run comes, but has just had too many chances to seriously consider backing. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. ALL UP x $5 PLACE Race 2: 4-ANOTHER PRELATE PLACE Race 4: 2-LIKE A CAROUSEL PLACE Race 5: 7-RAWNAQ PLACE Race 9: 2-ESTONIAN PRINCESS Let’s end the season with another try at the Poor Man’s Quaddie being 4 place getters instead of four winners. The 4-ANOTHER PRELATE is racing extremely well, there is a short priced favourite in that race but prefer to be on this one at odds to place at around $4.40, seems crazy odds in a 9 horse field for a horse that has placed his last 3 starts. Go for the on pacer the 2-LIKE A CAROUSEL in the Sandown Cup who will hopefully stick on at around $1.90. We are hoping the 7-RAWNAQ steps up in the Sandown Classic and really blows out the dividend, again $5.50 the place in a 9 horse field looks great odds. Really open last leg but the 2-ESTONIAN PRINCESS was really good late after drawing an outside barrier in the Myer Classic and should be in the finish here at around $2.80. By the powers of multiplication that means we are looking at around 125 to 1 odds by $5, which, well, would be a rather nice way to end the season. |
| The Tips: Race 1: 7-THURLOW, 4-MESA, 1-JACQUERIC Race 2: 4-ANOTHER PRELATE, 2-PORNICHET, 6-RED BOMBER Race 3: 1-WINE TALES, 4-DUAL STAR, 7-WROCLAW Race 4: 7-RENEW, 2-LIKE A CAROUSEL, 3-MASSIYN Race 5: 4-PRINCE OF PENZANCE, 7-RAWNAQ, 1-GREEN MOON Race 6: 9-ZABISCO, 5-BEL THOR, 8-TRISTRAM’S SUN Race 7: 2-STRATUM STAR, 8-CHILL PARTY, 7-DUCAL CASTLE Race 8: 7-NEAREST TO PIN, 5-GENERALIFE, 1-FAST’N’ ROCKING Race 9: 2-ESTONIAN PRINCESS, 6-ROSE OF CHOICE, 12-BELLE DE COEUR |
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| RACE 5: SANDOWN CLASSIC 2400M GROUP 2 WFA |
| Tips: 4-PRINCE OF PENZANCE 7-RAWNAQ 1-GREEN MOON |
| Others: 9 Pace: SLOW Leaders: 5-AU REVOIR Handy: 1-GREEN MOON, 2-SEA MOON, 4-PRINCE OF PENZANCE, 8-COUNT OF LIMONADE Back: 3-RIALYA, 6-SPILLWAY, 7-RAWNAQ, 9-EPINGLE Chances: 1-GREEN MOON is the 2012 Melbourne Cup winner, who although he has been competitive has yet to win in his 12 starts or two years since then. He has been around the placings in just about everything he has attempted and this is by far the weakest race he has been in during that time. Stable has an excellent record in this race. He is probably the only real WFA horse in the field and that is a really big plus. He really hasn’t gone as well this campaign and there was some doubt over him continuing on this spring after poor Turnbull Stakes run. But he has turned his form around suddenly before. His Caulfield Cup run wasn’t that bad at all, he went to run into it on the home turn, was about 4th when they went for home, was tightened for room a few times and stuck on OK. Interesting that they went for this race instead of the Melbourne Cup though, would suggest stable knows he is racing below his best. He has class on these, he can sit handy in a small field and think you need to keep him safe regardless of his form. Chance. 4-PRINCE OF PENZANCE is pretty much the only horse in this field with any form and that has to be a big plus. Promising lightly raced stayer who was looking good earlier in the year as he went through the grades. Took a fair while and a few runs to find form this time in, but now that he has he should hold it. Liked the MV Cup win when the jockey took a very brave run from the back of field and weaved through, and similar run last start when just sat off the speed and produced to put himself into the race. Like the way he races, he sits just off the speed and runs into the race at the right time. Slowly run race here wouldn’t bother here, he seems to have a pretty good turn of foot. Good win and place strike rate and really as the only horse in this field with any form does stand out as the one to beat. Strong chance. 7-RAWNAQ has been mixing his form for years, but this spring he has had that special cut which so often seems to work. Win strike rate is very ordinary. Ran 3rd in 2012 Victoria Derby at 100-1 and jockey thought he should have won that day. Really good ride to win at Caulfield when sat at the back of a pack and burst through a very narrow gap. Drew very wide last week and the track was strongly favouring on pacers, and he actually ran on very well there to finish behind those that sat on speed. That run was pretty good. Like that he is the fresh horse on the scene here, fitter for the 3 runs in and although he probably wants the speed on, he does seem to have a turn of foot and the small field and long straight will suit. He did flop in this race in his 3YO year with no weight, but stable are confident they have him right now and that he is going to go on and think he is the best rough chance by far in this. Rough chance. 9-EPINGLE is a pretty good staying mare on her day, she just needs to get into the right race to win, which doesn’t happen very often. Maybe she has been set for this race all spring? Only the 3 runs in, she ran on really well 1st up late at MV over a short trip, and did the same again in the Cranbourne Cup and then really wasn’t suited by the lack of speed in the MV Cup. So her form is OK and she hasn’t really found a race to suit yet. Big track and distance here will suit and has solid 2400M form. She just needs the speed on, or for runners on to be winning which so often doesn’t happen and she probably doesn’t win as often as she should. She is going OK though so some rough chance in this, would prefer some give in the ground so maybe elevate if the rain comes early? Rough chance. Place: 2-SEA MOON is the other Williams stable runner who has never really lived up to the huge spruik on him last spring. Last spring he seemed to need hard riding, and lots of distance and runs to get to his best. Bit surprised they have kept him so fresh this time in. 1st up at Flem he was starting to wind up late, but still that was 2500M, so you don’t get much further than that. Went to the lead in the Caulfield Cup against normal racing pattern and stopped very quickly. SCR from Melbourne Cup. Has to be some question mark over his form and how he is going. Doubt they will go forward here again, he will sit handy and grind away, but doubt there is enough speed in this race for him. The long Sandown straight and the uphill run home will be a plus as he does really like to grind away, but place at very best. Place. 5-AU REVOIR has only had the two Australian starts and they have been OK, so has to rate a chance in this small field with not much form. Solid on pace effort in the MV Cup when went to the lead in a race with little speed, but was still beaten by the (4) who had the sit on him. Bit hard to know exactly how he is going, but think he might be better next preparation and doubt he will improve much on his Australian runs this time in. Melbourne Cup run wasn’t too bad, he was wide most of the way and did present out wide on the home turn, but was going backwards down the straight. Likely leader here so always a chance could lead and dictate and pinch this race, but prefer place chance. Place. Sacking: 3-RIALYA is a 7YO stayer who seems to be aiming pretty high here. Been well held in weaker races and hasn’t shown best form for at least a year, if not longer. Should drop back here. Hard to see him being competitive at WFA here. Very hard to get enthused on form. No 6-SPILLWAY has been a bit erratic all spring and hasn’t really got to the level that was expected. Looked the goods 1st up way back in the Lawrence Stakes when zipped home and only just missed on the line, and was fair in the Makybe Diva. Got blocked for runs and rider was heavily criticised in the Naturalism when was short priced favourite, and he has been chasing Cups starts all spring with not much luck. Disappointing up in Sydney. Ran on well in the Mackinnon when speed on suited and he was really good late there. Really hard to know where he is at, he has had a long spring and missed his main spring targets, but he does seem to have a nice turn of foot which means he may be suited at WFA in a small field. Some suggestion he may not be a stayer? Not sure he is going to get the speed he wants in this and find it hard to back him with any confidence off indifferent form, even in a weak field. Concerned he has been up for so long this spring. Risking. 8-COUNT OF LIMONADE is an import come local who is being given time to race though his grades which seems like a good plan. Beaten favourite at first two Australian starts. Had the 4 runs in but has been up since late August, so fairly long campaign. Did beat home the (4) two starts back and there is going to be a fair bit of difference in the odds here. Guess he will be better off for the run over the 2400M. He is going OK, but just not sure at WFA he is really going to be a factor here. Probably won’t be too far off them, but happy to leave out today. No Summary: As always a totally lack lustre field for this event, and as usual get a small field of horses that aren’t really WFA horses, pretending to be WFA horses. That always makes this a tricky race to line up. If there is a genuine WFA horse in this field, then it almost certainly wins. Often prefer to be on fresher horses for this race too, so often it is the consolation prize for horses that have missed their main spring targets. Small field and really looks to be no speed at all – the 5-AU REVOIR leads, with 1-GREEN MOON, 4-PRINCE OF PENZANCE taking the sit behind him. Really 4-PRINCE OF PENZANCE stands out as the one to beat on form here – mainly because he is just about the only horse in the field with any form. Racing really well, has a nice turn of foot and just like the way he puts himself into the race at the right time, so lack of speed shouldn’t be an issue. On form really should win this. The only danger we think is the 7-RAWNAQ and quite liking the odds about this one, he is the fresh horse on the scene and last run is much better than it looks on a track that was favouring on pacers. 1-GREEN MOON the unknown element as the only WFA horse in this field, so would only have to find a semblance of old form to be a factor in this. Actually keen to bet, think the top pick really should win, and just save on the great value second pick and take the quinella. One to risk: 6-SPILLWAY Roughie: 7-RAWNAQ The Key: WFA class, but no WFA horses. |
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