We will end the Spring Campaign 2024 this week, thanks everyone for the support. Unfortunately, it’s been slim pickings this spring and especially over Cup Week with barely a double figure winner in sight.
If you thought Caulfield Cup week felt a little light on, just look at today’s program and find out why – with two Group 1s, three Group 3s and one Listed race borrowed from earlier on in the spring. There is nothing wrong with exploring new race days later in the year, but it would be a good opportunity to create new races rather than diminish established race days.
Hot, warm and sunny day forecast and we should end up on a very firm track here, especially with a strong windy day forecast. They might need cover in the run and to be bursting through the pack late so keep an eye on how strong the wind gets. Looks a pretty good punting day with some competitive fields and seems to be a fair bit of value around, so let’s double up the Betting Portfolio on the last day of spring.
Feature race preview at the bottom of this post.
BEST WIN: Race 9: 4-ANOTHER WIL $10 WIN
TRIFECTA: Race 9: 4 / 1,5,7,10 / 1,5,7,10,13,14,15 x $6 = 25%
Looks the obvious pick in the feature race from a good barrier and taking a good sit behind the speed, with the turn of foot to burst clear early in the straight. Back straight out at around $3.30, and let’s try and increase the collect here by anchoring him to win in a trifecta, taking some value runners in the 10-CHARM STONE, 5-GENTLEMAN ROY for second and likely something at the bottom of the weights will run into the placings to make the dividend worthwhile.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 13-HARRY GOT STYLES $7 EW
This one is showing some ability whilst at the same time challenging our knowledge of popular music. Good win at Bendigo with a big weight, and then had no chance at MV when he was shuffled back to last before the turn, was searching for runs and finally ran on well once got into the clear. Strong finishing type who will want the speed on here, but may be able to settle handier from a good barrier today. There is not a huge amount of current form in this field and he looks a good each way bet at around $10.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 8-HOLY RACKET $7 EW
Small, even field of sprinters and this one has been racing well and more importantly maintaining a good win strike rate. Too strong over the top of them first-up and then trapped between runners last start when couldn’t get a clear crack at them. Out to the 1100M today but with a quite ride hoping to see him bursting through late again at around $11.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 10: 5-EXTRATWO $7.50 EW, QUINELLA 5#3,4,7,9 x $8 = 200%
This one has been up all spring, but continues to race well and more importantly has been racing in harder races than most of these and is suited under the set weights here today. Chased home well in open class last start, blinkers go on today and best suited running on down the middle of the track strong late which looks likely pattern today. Excellent distance stats. Back each way at around $12 and anchor in a quinella with the favourite the 4-NIANCE, the value runner in the consistent 7-DANNY’S ST DARCI, the 3-INFANCY finishing on strongly and the unknown quantity in the 9-MISS ROUMBINI who looks to have a stack of ability.
QUINELLA: Race 8: 3,6,8,9,15 boxed x $10 = 100%
Wide open race in the Country Cups Final, so taking a wide box quinella. Have the 6-MYSTERY ISLAND on top here with improvement off the two runs in, but mainly because he is proven over further than 2000M and many of these are not. The 8-NEW YORK HURRICANE on-speed and racing well, the 9-SUNSETS has had a very curious 4YO preparation for a VRC Derby place getter, the 3-MILFORD just loves dry tracks and Caulfield and the 15-LOTTAROC fit and in form rolling along on-speed.
BEST ROUGH: Race 3: 12-SERASANA $3 EW
This one won the Sandown Guineas here at Caulfield (!!??) last year and was thereabouts but a little disappointing last preparation. The 1100M first-up was far too short and she is much better suited here over the 1400M today. This looks a winnable race with lots of other first-up horses in the field and jockey Allen has been on a winning streak over the last week. Something each way at around $16 in a pretty weak field.
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 6-BLACKBERRY BOMB $3 EW
This is a ridiculously open race and even field and it’s really hard to line up those who have been racing in harder races versus those coming off impressive maiden wins. Big field and they look like they will go pretty quickly here and set it up for something running on late, so we have settled on this one as the racing pattern looks to suit. Likely to be stronger than many of these late coming off a 1300M win, and have something each way at around $21.
BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 9-SUPERCILIOUS $3 EW
We have been following this one all spring and she simply hasn’t been able to get into the right race. No luck at MV first-up when flying home along the rails late, good late at MV the start after in a leader dominated race and again last start at Flemington those on-speed were winning and she was making good ground late. Interested to see what she does today out to the 1600M and we might see a more positive ride from barrier 1. Most of the others in this race have been racing against each other and she represents a different and unknown form line, so keen to have something on today at around $23.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 3: 11-SASSY BOOM at around $4.40
We managed 3 winners from 4 Lays over Melbourne Cup week which is an astoundingly poor effort, not even sure we tipped 3 winners for the week! This one is one we normally back and tip, but to be fair she has been going horribly this time in, has been leading or on-speed and had every chance and done nothing late. Surprised she is favourite in this race based on her form. Let’s see if we can get her back into the winner’s circle here!
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a giant water slide for the Caulfield concrete.
$5 ALL UP
PLACE Race 2: 16-TIFFANY VALENTINE
PLACE Race 5: 8-HOLY RACKET
PLACE Race 7: 9-SUPERCILIOUS
PLACE Race 10: 5-EXTRATWO
Let’s give the Poor Mans’ Quaddie one more try, through the main bets of the day and those who look the safest place bets. Looking at around $350 return for a $5 spend.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 7,8,9,10: 2,4,9,10,11 / 3,6,8,9,15,17 / 4,10 / 3,4,5,7 x $20 = 8.33%
The Quaddie should pay OK today, especially if we can find a value winner to beat the favourite in the first leg. The second leg is wide open, in the third leg the 4-ANOTHER WIL looks the one to beat but take a back-up in the 10-CHARM STONE and come home on the selections in the last.
Feature Race Preview: RACE 9 – SIR RUPERT CLARKE STAKES
As we saw last week, we are getting to the end of the spring and some of these are past their best this campaign and prefer to look to those fresh and on the way up. This race can be pretty tough for those up in the weights, just because there are usually large numbers of horses on the lower weight scale so they are also hopelessly outnumbered. Since 2000, only 5 horses have carried 56kgs or more (not sure what the denominator is there, as in number of starters), though 3 of the last 6 winners have carried 56kgs or more.
The speed here looks to be fast, the 9-BUFFALO RIVER knows only one way and that is to run to a long lead, the 3-TUVALU will have to work to cross from an outside barrier and the 5-GENTLEMAN ROY and 13-RUN HARRY RUN will also likely push forward, with the 14-STEPARTY, 15-WAR MACHINE getting good sits behind the speed with cover.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-SOUTHPORT TYCOON was brilliant flashing home to win a Group 1 at MV and then solid in two highly competitive races up in Sydney. Outside barrier suits this one, who will drop back and swoop down the middle of the track and keep an eye out to see if that is the racing pattern into a strong wind. Dry track suits, already a two times Group 1 winner but he is giving 6kgs to over half the field here. Chance.
2-PRIVATE EYE SCRATCHED
3-TUVALU has a stack of ability but has been raced very sparingly over the last year. Won the feature sprint at Warrnambool first-up mid-year and given a few jump outs leading into a first-up effort here. Has won a Toorak Hcp here and raced at the top level last spring. Won 4 from 8 first up, but challenge here is that he is a leader and he has drawn outside so likely to have to do some work early here to go forward (with a few other leaders in the race). Pretty difficult (if not impossible) to win this race first-up. Passing.
4-ANOTHER WIL has always has a stack of potential and aiming to get a Group 1 on the resume. Been racing well all spring, absolutely launched late here to win first-up, nearly went through the fence second-up (but still won), and then disappointed in an unusually run and won Toorak which was forgivable. Excellent rails burst to win at Flemington during Cup Week. Perfect draw, can sit handy and get some cover here, and looks the one to beat here. Top chance.
5-GENTLEMAN ROY is a tough, dry track leader who can be very hard to run down when he is in form. Super tough win to win the Lawrence here back in August, and then obviously freshened-up to be set for this race. Last start here is better than it looks, he was off a break, he was the first to come out and try and reign in the leader and he simply isn’t at his best on soft ground. Much better on a firm track here, excellent distance stats and if they are winning on speed definitely put him in as a winning chance, if not a rough chance regardless. Rough.
6-CLIMBING STAR looked to have a stack of ability early on and then lost her way for a few preparations before bouncing back into form last time in over in Adelaide, and running well in Group 1 sprints. Her two runs this time in have been good, strong late in the Manikato and again out wide in Sydney. The 1400M distance stats look a bit wobbly, and we have followed this one closely and think she doesn’t like a really firm track – and we are likely to be on a GOOD(3) by the time this race is run. On the plus side, she looks fresher than most of these. Good enough to win this under right conditions. Rough only.
7-JIMMYSSTAR was much maligned after being beaten at $1.26, $1.85 and $1.75 three starts in a row earlier in the year (youch!). Has come back in peak form, launching late to win here first-up and then winning down the middle of the track and against the on-speed racing pattern on Caulfield Guineas Day. Chased really hard at Flemington behind the (4) and really not much between them there. Will want the speed on, which looks the case here, but faces a tricky ride from barrier 1 trying to weave though the field – but maybe the speed on will stretch them out here? Probably better coming down the outside in clear running. Definitely has the ability to win, but not sure we want to back him today and will need luck. Chance.
8-KIMOCHI is a Sydney 4YO mare who was right in the finish of the Thousand Guineas on this day last year in a strong field. Even effort in the Manikato when worked to the line well and then competitive in the Empire Rose over Cup Week. She likes to race handy and is drawn wide here and there are quite a few who can go forward, so suspect she is going to be left exposed here into the wind. Nice light weight but prefer as a place chance. Place.
9-BUFFALO RIVER is lining up for start 37 over the 1400M, start 26 at Caulfield and start number 23 over the Caulfield 1400M which is some effort. Seemed to have lost all form this time in, but then came out last start and nearly led all the way and really he had the entire field struggling till one burst through late out of the pack. Track was favouring those on-speed that day though, and his best form is on tracks with some give. Will run along and ensure a genuine speed but he has had a few tries at this race before and not been good enough. No
10-CHARM STONE has been good in both runs back from a long spell. Worked home OK at MV and then right in the finish at Flemington and sure to have plenty of improvement to come from that run. Nice quiet barrier here and no weight so might get a pretty good run here. Question mark is the 1400M though, but she is fresher than most of these with improvement to come and has always shown a lot of ability. Lightly weighted horses on the rise often win this race. Genuine rough chance.
11-CHRYSAOR SCRATCHED
12-ROLL ON HIGH showed she had ability with strong Cup Week win last year and continued to race well during QLD winter. Drop back type who will be suited with the speed on here. Only even first-up and stepping up into a Group 1 here and not sure her form is good enough for this at the moment. No.
13-RUN HARRY RUN has stepped up this spring, competitive against the (4) here first-up, stuck on well behind the (7) second-up and gets nice weight drop from last run. Fitter for the three runs in and been in the finish each time, and blinkers go on here. Drawn inside and likely to go forward with no weight. Well held against a few going around here in lead up runs, but worth a rough place chance for the wider exotics. Rough place.
14-STEPARTY went around favourite in the Caulfield Guineas last year, but disappointed in his last preparation and has taken a few runs to run into form this time in. Gave a good kick last start at Flemington and the two main chances here did have to work to go past him, but they both beat him home there. Looks ready to peak now, nice barrier draw for a sit with cover behind the speed. On his best form he would be a chance here, keep an eye out for any market moves. Rough.
15-WAR MACHINE was beaten by a very smart one first-up at MV, then competitive last two starts in Sydney. Does have some ability and likely to get a good run here from the good barrier. Many of these are proven at Group 1 though and this one is still on the way up, but does seem to have some market support. Ticks the box of lightly weighted one on the way up. Prefer to risk at the moment.
16-BITTERCREEK is the lightly weighted 3YO with the Melbourne Cup jockey on board. Strong down the middle of the track to win at MV and then worked home OK down the straight last time in super strong sprint race. Likely to drop back here, but strong finisher, no weight and speed on will suit. Another who isn’t hopeless here. Rough chance.
Summary:
Speed here looks to be quite genuine and behind the top two there really isn’t that much between these and most of them have some winning chance if the two in the market don’t bring their best today. The 4-ANOTHER WIL looks the one to beat here, gets a perfect on-speed sit behind a fast speed on a windy day and should have the turn of foot to burst through and win this. Respect for the 10-CHARM STONE as the main danger, lightly raced and lightly weighted and more improvement to come than many of these and want to throw in a roughie for third in the 5-GENTLEMAN ROY who looks over the odds on a dry track on-speed. The 7-JIMMYSSTAR definitely goes in the quaddie, but can’t back him with any confidence when he is going to need luck from the inside barrier. Nice race for wide trifecta with the main chances to win, where a lot of these can run a place at good odds.
Race 1: 8-HIYAAM PROUD, 9-OUR COUVER, 5-KAHHOF
Race 2: 13-HARRY GOT STYLES, 16-TIFFANY VALENTINE, 5-ALONG THE RIVER
Race 3: 13-REGAL VOW, 12-SERASANA, 9-LITTLE JACK
Race 4: 7-I AM VELVET, 1-COLEMAN, 2-RUE DE ROYALE
Race 5: 8-HOLY RACKET, 6-MIRAVAL ROSE, 5-KIN
Race 6: 6-BLACKBERRY BOMB, 2-TOBEORNOTTOBE, 14-LEGACY BAY
Race 7: 2-AELIANA, 9-SUPERCILIOUS, 11-BENAGIL
Race 8: 6-MYSTERY ISLAND, 8-NEW YORK HURRICANCE, 9-SUNSETS
Race 9: 4-ANOTHER WIL, 10-CHARM STONE, 5-GENTLEMAN ROY
Race 10: 5-EXTRATWO, 4-NIANCE, 7-DANNY’S ST DARCI
