There looks to be a fair bit of rain heading into the weekend, including on race day so we are probably going to be looking at a track the worse side of SOFT and deteriorating. Rail out 6M and if we get rain on race day they will probably looking to come off the rails in the straight later in the day. Always one of the best punting days of the year with the Guineas Preludes, Rupert Clarke Stakes and Naturalism, shame they keep chopping and changing the race card every year.
Rupert Clarke Stakes
We have a capacity field for the Rupert Clarke Stakes so we need to do some groundwork to go through the form. Few important historical notes; international runner JUNGLE CAT in 2018 is the only horse to have won this race 1st up in the last 30 years, it is not easy at all to do and we have 2-LAW OF INDICIES, 8-AYRTON and 16-CHAILLOT all attempting to do it this year (spell defined as a 90 day break so not counting 15-TUVALU here). Only three horses have carried more than 56kgs and won in the last 20 years, this race normally has a long tail of in-form light weight chances, this year half the field has 56kgs or more (appreciating weights increase over time). This is a super tough feature Group 1 and winners are often lightly weighted horses who have finished in the first three in their lead up run, you need to be in form and racing well to win this race. Another astonishing stat, jockey Craig Williams has won this race 6 times since 2005, which considering the competitiveness of the fields is some effort.
This race often has a lot of interference as well and this year with a big field sure to be some hard luck stories out the back. The speed should be genuine though, the speedy 12-BUFFALO RIVER needs to get across from an outside barrier and only knows one way to race, to go straight to the front. The 4-CALLSIGN MAV will settle handy behind the speed, the 11-RED CAN MAN will also try and cross from an outside barrier and that leaves the 8-AYRTON, 13-AYSAR and the 15-TUVALU getting pretty good runs on the speed whilst the others drop back and ride for luck. The 19-AGE OF CHIVLARY (3rd emergency) and 20-OPEN MINDED (4th emergency) both go forward and add to the speed if they get into the field.
Going through the field the 1-DALASAN is a grand old (he is only six??) campaigner and a feature miler in the classic tradition. Has been thereabouts in lots of feature races and wasn’t beaten far in this race last year carrying 2.5kgs less when he was widest runner into the straight from a bad barrier. His form this time in is actually better, he has drawn a better barrier and it was a pretty tough win first up in Adelaide. Actually wouldn’t be surprised if he did something this year and he is a good rough chance for trifectas and first fours. The 2-LAWS OF INDICES is an international who has only managed one placing in several Australian preparations, and not much market support so passing. The 3-SINEWANN was impressive winning here last November, but didn’t really go on with it over Autumn when he started favourite in a C.F.Orr. Battled away OK 1st up with a big weight and suited here up in distance in a race with the speed on. Maybe a little concern is dropping back from an inside barrier in a big field, but he is some rough chance in this. The 4-CALLSIGN MAV is a rolling on-pacer who is suited on a wet track and will probably win a decent race over spring, not sure he is suited in a high pressure 1400M race though, something a bit longer where he can roll on-speed. The 5-I AM SUPERMAN got a perfect trail into the race here 1st up and only just missed behind one that is in flying form. Probably prefers a track on the better side of soft, so wet track maybe an issue and pretty tough ask from an outside barrier. Well drawn on a dry track he would be a pretty solid chance in a race like this. The 6-JUST FOLK is a wet tracker who may get conditions to suit, has really stepped up in class last six starts or so and has been pretty competitive at a high level and great run in Adelaide last start. Well drawn and can race handy, if the track gets to the worse side of soft think you need to give him serious consideration in this and he is well over the odds in betting.
The 7-GRACEFUL GIRL is a WA visitor and the stable has been struggling this spring so far. Fitter for the two runs in and the Bobbie Lewis is often a good guide to this race, but just concerned about the likely wet track and dropping well back in the run from an inside barrier in a capacity field. The 8-AYRTON is trying to win this race 1st up, which is not easy to do, though is unbeaten at Caulfield in four starts. Won this track and distance 1st up last time in, and unbeaten 1st up as well. Given two trials leading into this so should be ready and inside barrier perfect draw for an on-speed run. Watch the betting market, if the money comes it will probably be right, so have to respect chances, but totally unknown on a wet track. The 9-HILAL is a Sydney visitor who went to the lead last start against his normal racing pattern and stuck on OK. Fitter for the two runs in and best form is as a strong finisher over a mile, but a fast run 1400M probably suits here. Likely to drop well back from the outside barrier though and that is going to make it tough. The 10-SHOWMANSHIP is a 7YO with 8 wins from 10 starts, was scratched quite a few times trying to find a dry track before classy strong finishing 1st up win in Sydney. Well drawn and strong finisher who could burst through the pack late, maybe watch the betting market on this one, but think would want track to stay better side of soft. The 11-RED CAN MAN is a tough on-pacer who is fitter for the two runs in and comes through the Bobbie Lewis which is often a good form race for this. Another who wants a drier track and pretty tough ask going forward here from an outside barrier. He looks to be running into form and if drawn well on a dry track he would definitely go in the selections, so he is probably over the odds at the moment and another who may run better than the odds suggest but will need an outstanding ride. The 12-BUFFALO RIVER only knows one way to race and that is to burn out to a clear lead, totally came undone last start here when pressured up front and first horse beaten, but pretty decent effort in Lawrence Stakes before that. His track and distance stats are actually pretty good, and wet track will suit, but tough barrier for a leader and just seems a really tough horse to rate correctly out in the lead.
The 13-AYSAR stung us last start, but was always going to win a race this spring. Did have the plus of a leader’s track last start at MV and has been a bit tough to follow as he mixes his form. Actually ran 4th beaten less than 1 length in this race last year, and he was fighting out the lead with 100M to go and his form this time in is better. Well drawn to sit just off the speed and might run better than odds suggest, but can we trust his consistency? The 14-BANKER’S CHOICE will drop well back from an outside barrier here but does have a great finishing burst. Worked home OK here 1st up and will be fitter for that run, and does drop a massive 4.5kgs here into this race. Eye-catching run 1st up last Autumn in the Blamey and then made ground in a Doncaster so he has the ability to win this and given a quite ride and bursting through the pack late he may do something today. The 15-TUVALU has always shown a lot of ability and has been very carefully placed, ticks a lot of boxes coming into this as a last start winner, good run on-speed and towards bottom of the weights. Is coming off a 9 week let-up (so technically not quite a spell as such), but has won a barrier trial in between. Handles all going and yet to be unplaced in 11 career start so looks the one to beat with the best form and least negatives today (and at least he is actually in the field). The 16-CHAILLOT best form is 1st up and over the 1400M, has won 4 from 5 1st up, but most of them have been at Flemington and think she is definitely a Flemington horse and not as effective at Caulfield. Will drop well back here and need luck, she needs to make a long sustained run over them in clear running to be effective and wet track could also be an issue. The 17-DRAGON LEAP (1st emerg) is a NZer with good career stats who ran well here at WFA in the Memsie and gets a good weight drop into this race. Question might be if he wants it a little further, but he is probably going to be competitive if he makes the field. The 18-I WISH I WIN (2nd emergency) absolutely destroyed them 1st up off a fast speed and comes into this at the bottom of the weights and in winning form which is exactly what you want. Probably wants the rain to come – and not because he needs a wet track, but so there are a few scratchings so he can get into the field. Definitely the one to beat, chance of getting into the field is minimal though. The 19-AGE OF CHIVALRY (3rd emergency) is a good dry track on-pacer 1400M horse who will probably need another run. The 20-OPEN MINDED (4th emergency) has been racing really well and is fitter for the two runs in and coming off a good last start placing, ready to win now, but better on dry ground and would need a miracle to make the field.
This is a super tough race to sort out, mainly because some of the better chances are in the emergencies and unclear how much rain we are going to get at this stage. Definitely the 18-I WISH I WIN (2nd emergency) is the one to beat, whether he makes the field or is another matter. The 15-TUVALU the other obvious pick on form. But there are a stack of good value roughies here and think that might be the way to go, the 6-JUST FOLK comes right into contention on a wet track, drawn well and racing well and can sit just behind the speed here and looks amazing value at $41. As frustrating as he is to follow the 13-AYSAR is well suited here and ran a great race in this race last year so think you need to be wary of him and think this race is going to be run to suit the 14-BANKER’S CHOICE flashing home late with a substantial weight drop. Tipping the 18-I WISH I WIN (2nd emergency) but planning to end up with the roughie 6-JUST FOLK on top if he doesn’t make the field. From a punting perspective, we are actually going to play with each way bets and wide box quinellas on the three roughies, who are three of the longest priced runners in the race.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 7-AMENABLE $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 4: 7-AMENABLE#2,5,8,10 x $2 = 50%
Promising type who looks a likely Caulfield Guineas horse and was unlucky last start at MV when was just about to launch for a run and had to come out around runners and finished on extremely well. Increase in distance should suit and likely to be strong at the end of the race. Looks a good each way bet with improvement at around $12, the short priced favourite the 2-AFT CABIN is definitely going to be hard to beat though back up in distance. Box up a quinella with the favourite, the 5-LETHAL THOUGHTS who dropped back and was on his wrong leg in Sydney last start and probably sits on-speed today, the impressive last start winner the 8-JAPANESE EMPEROR and there is a good roughie here in the 10-BERARDINO who will run out the trip strongly and might run better than the $50 odds on offer.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 5-BOOGIE DANCER $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 5: 2,5,10,13 boxed x $3 = 50%
Was flying on wet tracks over winter and then given a freshen-up and dropped back to 1200M last start and was weaving through the field nicely at the end of the race (and continued well after the line too, she was full of momentum). Back out to 1400M suits and proven on wet ground, they just need to decide what they are doing from a wide barrier here but she could be pretty good. Back each-way at $6 and this is a pretty open race so take a box quinella with the strong finishing 2-REVOLUTIONARY MISS (wet track?), the leader the 10-PROSCENIUM ARCH who threw the race away last start, but blinkers go on today, and the 13-BONHEUR (from the mighty mare BONARIA!) who ran some good races against good horses last time in and will be suited up in distance and is well drawn.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 4-SHERAZ $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 6: 4-SHERAZ#14-UNCLE BRYN, 13-SMOKIN’ ROMANS x $2 = 100%
Great run here 1st up when poked through along the rails full of running to contest the finish and showed good staying form in Sydney and might go on with it with a few Australian preparations now. Back each way at around $10 and you can take confident quinellas here with the 14-UNCLE BRYN, 13-SMOKIN’ ROMANS who are the other two likely to be in the finish.
BEST ROUGH: Race 1: 11-GONE WEST $2 EW
Just a little speculative bet in the first race, this one raced surprisingly well first run back from a close to two year break last start at Sandown. Was strong late to the line, and even better after the line and looks a solid staying type. Might just need one more run, but this isn’t an overly strong race and may be worth following this spring at around $13.
BEST ROUGH: Race 3: 4-MEGAMEA $2 EW
Super consistent type who we just have to keep following regardless. Handles wet ground and was wide the entire trip here two starts back when the drop back to 1100M didn’t suit and was only just beaten, and then even run last start behind an all the way leader who has since franked the form. Looks well suited into this race and looks good value at around $14 for a pretty consistent type who always tries hard.
BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 6-JUST FOLK $3 EW
Wide open feature race and we are loving the odds about this one, third up and fitter and ready to win, coming off a good Adelaide run, well drawn and loves it wet. Improved rapidly and went up in class last preparation and was competitive and likely to get a pretty good run here. Current odds are $31, but that’s with the emergencies in the field and likely to shorten again once everyone realises how wet the track is so maybe get on first thing tomorrow morning once the field is finalised so you don’t cop any deductions. Really good value roughie and keen to have something each way.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 2: 6-XTRAVAGANT STAR at around $3
Not a race we are that keen to bet in with a fairly even field of sprinting 3YOs that are difficult to line up. Likely to go forward and cop a fair bit of pressure and not sure the wet track suits, but mainly there is probably not much between these so if having a bet would want to back something at better odds than $3 to make it worthwhile.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a deposit for a Caulfield racecourse apartment.
QUINELLA: Race 7: 6,13,14,15,18 boxed x $5 = 50%
Normally we would try for a trifecta in this race, but this year we have a capacity field and a wide open betting market and there are three great roughies in the 6-JUST FOLK, 13-AYSAR, 14-BANKER’S CHOICE to build a value quinella around. So box them up with the main chances the 18-I WISH I WIN (emerg) and 15-TUVALU and the quinella should pay well (the trifecta is utterly impossible). There is a chance of scratchings so in order the replacement runners are 17-DRAGON LEAP (emerg) and 11-RED CAN MAN.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 6,7,8,9: 4,13,14 / 6,13,14,15,18 / 2,4,8 / 4,5,8,9,11 x $20 = 8.9%
Despite the big field go narrow in the first leg where there looks to be three strong chances in the 4-SHERAZ, 14-UNCLE BRYN, 13-SMOKIN’ ROMANS and go as wide as possible in the open second leg and hope for roughies like 6-JUST FOLK, 13-AYSAR, 14-BANKER’S CHOICE. One of the three main chance should win the third leg, but the last leg does have quite a few genuine winning chances so that should spread the quaddie runners around. Really need something out of the ordinary to win the feature race to make this dividend worthwhile.
Race 1: 1-GLOBAL GIFT, 3-FENGARADA, 11-GONE WEST
Race 2: 3-LASCARS, 8-KIN, 1-CANNONBALL
Race 3: 10-SAIGON, 4-MEGAMEA, 9-ADELE AMOUR
Race 4: 7-AMENABLE, 2-AFT CABIN, 5-LETHAL THOUGHTS
Race 5: 5-BOOGIE DANCER, 10-PROSCENIUM ARCH, 13-BONHEUR
Race 6: 4-SHERAZ, 14-UNCLE BRYN, 13-SMOKIN’ ROMANS
Race 7: 18-I WISH I WIN (emerg), 6-JUST FOLK, 15-TUVALU, 14-BANKER’S CHOICE
Race 8: 4-CHAIN OF LIGHTNING, 8-SHE’S ALL CLASS, 2-ZAPATEO
Race 9: 9-IT’SOURTIME, 4-SERADESS, 11-CURRAN
