Track is currently a GOOD(4) heading into the weekend, but there is a moderate amount of rain forecast which should see it slide down into a the genuine SOFT range, and maybe even the worse side of. Also take note of the wind, which looks like it will be a factor. Expect them to be coming off the rails and maybe needing cover in the run, so they should be able to run on and win today and may be an advantage to be drawn out.
We have a sensational feature Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes, with a very strong field which also means we are getting really good odds about some pretty decent horses. Traditionally this is a very tough race for those carrying weight to win, and we have 3/4 of the field here on 52kgs. BEHEMOTH won this race last year with 60kgs, and JUNGLE CAT won with 58kgs in 2018, before that pretty much the last 20 winners have all carried under 55kgs, which is not surprising as they make up most of the runners.
There looks to be plenty of speed this year, with the 8-GROUNDSWELL only knowing one way to win and that is to lead, and 6-BUFFALO RIVER going forward, the 3-STREET OF AVALON (wide), 9-AYSAR (wide) sitting handy from the 16-POLAND (wide). With a lot of the speed influences drawn wide that means there is a really good chance for one or more of those drawn inside to kick up and get the perfect sit behind the leaders, and three favoured runners 1-BEHEMOTH, 2-PROBABEEL, 5-BEAU ROSSA will all have the chance to do just that.
Going through the runners, the 1-BEHEMOTH is totally dominant at this level and won this race last year against a weaker fields with 60kgs. He is drawn inside and that can be tricky for him as sometimes he can be slow away, but they have managed to kick him up at most of his Caulfield starts to sit handier and will probably do the same again today. He did get the perfect run into the race last start in the Memsie, which some of his rivals did not, and does meet the (5) a considerable 3.5 kgs worse off, who had the worse run in that race. Jockey said there was plenty of improvement to come for this one though and he will handle it wet and is a strong chance. The 2-PROBABEEL is a class mare with a 50% win strike rate from 27 starts, unbeaten at Caulfield and she can push up from this barrier as well and probably wouldn’t want her to drop too far back along the inside here. She is better on firm ground, but wet track isn’t really an issue unless it gets to the worse side of soft. Jockey Prebble got booted off a winning ride on the (1) and is seeking payback on this one and may just get it. The 3-STREETS OF AVALON is following an almost identical campaign to last spring, great run 1st up, really disappointing runs in the Caulfield 1400M features, and then a pretty decent run on a wet track (unsuitable) over 1600M (unsuitable) at MV. Bombed out in this race last year though with the same preparation, and likely wet track is a major issue for this one, so only rough place chance at best. The 4-DALASAN missed a run over in Adelaide after going for a stroll and one hour’s exercise before the race, so has been behind in his preparation. Even effort 1st up at MV in an unsuitable race, and probably drops back here from a wide barrier. He tends to be a bit more dour these days and think he needs further. The 5-BEAU ROSSA seems to be on a path of rapid improvement and been really impressed with his last few runs. Really should have won the Memsie after being held up for runs on the inside and coming home late and hard, and gets a nice weight advantage today. Not sure how far he will go into the spring though after only a short let up. Jockey Meech has a chance to salvage some spring glory as a replacement rider, but they do need to go forward here from barrier 1 and settle just behind the speed, and think if he drops back along the inside there will be issues. Really given the right ride he is the one to beat here.
The 6-BUFFALO RIVER is 1st up into this race, and it is pretty much impossible to win this race 1st up. Yet to miss the place in 10 starts over the 1400M, and wet track is a plus. He does tend to over race and run out to a long lead, and reckon it is pretty hard to win 1st up with that sort of racing pattern as it requires serious race fitness. Should ensure a genuine tempo though. The 7-SIERRA SUE should have won the Feehan last start when she couldn’t get a run on the home turn behind the leaders when travelling like the winner. Had the race well in control on the home turn here the start before to win the Lawrence, and suited on a wet track, off a fast speed running into the race down the middle of the track and should get everything to suit today. Looks extremely well weighted here as the Lawrence winner with only 52kgs, coming off excellent WFA runs last two and looks massive value at around $14. The 8-GROUNDSWELL is very hard to beat when he gets his own way in front. Not suited taking a sit here last start, and nice weight drop, but really only wins when he leads and likely to get taken on by the (6) today. Also likely to come off the fence in the straight and let something through on the inside just behind the speed for a cosy run (hint: 5-BEAU ROSSA). The 9-AYSAR has been extremely costly to follow, at least he has stopped running teasing 2nds when he has had every chance which was his previous race pattern. Drawn out, will go forward here, fitter for the 2 runs in, and probably a good value runner for exotics as suspect he will run better than the odds suggest, but not a winning chance. The 10-IRISH FLAME is one we have heaps of time for, incredibly honest and no surprise to see him run so well 1st up over an unsuitable distance. He will love the speed on here, and drawn well to just cut the corner and run into the race and is a probably a rough winning chance in this.
The 11-ROMANCER keeps racing well at odds and will be suited on wet ground. Ran some really good races down the straight recently and wasn’t too bad at MV last start working home well off a super fast tempo. Will get a nice midfield run here in space, unlikely to win, but not reason why he can’t place. The 12-SAMIZDAT is a WA visitor, fitter for the two runs in and a bit hard to line up so probably have to rely on the market, but this is a pretty strong Group 1 and think you would want to see him go around first on that basis alone. The 13-AMISH BOY keeps racing really well in top level races, but just doesn’t seem to be quite good enough to win one, and is still stuck on the one win from 17 starts now. Hopelessly unlucky here last start when got crunched making a run on the rails, had to switch around them, pounced on the lead only to be run down by a pretty freaky strong finish. Outside draw and probably drops back here, but suited at the bottom of the weights and is a genuine winning chance – that last run here was seriously good. The 14-DICE ROLL was all the rage over the winter months, and has continued to race well, just lost some of his buzz. Probably goes forward here from a good barrier, but pretty tough to win this off a two month let up. Watching his previous runs he tends to slog out finishes, and not sure a hustle bustle capacity field 1400M Group 1 really suits him. The 15-REGARDSMAREE keeps racing well, but often presents as the winner and finds one better. Has loomed into the race like the winner last two starts, but been swamped late. Fitter for the 3 runs in, and think is probably better ridden a bit colder off a fast speed and running on late versus been ridden more forward last few starts, which should be the riding tactics today. Actually not hopeless in this, probably just needed the field to come up a little weaker, but some rough chance and race pattern should suit. The 16-POLAND faces a big challenge 2nd up and up in distance into a top notch Group 1, like a soft on-speed sit and don’t think he gets that today. The 17-I'M THUNDERSTRUCK is the first emergency, but showing a stack of potential and won impressively last two. Pretty tough to win this off a two month let-up and up substantially in class, drawn widest, speed on will suit but would need a strong run on pattern to figure in this and happy to risk even if he makes the field.
So how do we line all these up? We are a bit nervous about the inside barriers for the three favoured runners, 1-BEHEMOTH, 2-PROBABEEL, 5-BEAU ROSSA, they probably need to be pushed along early to take a good position and think the one who drops back might miss getting a run at the right time, which will be when the leader the 8-GROUNDSWELL shifts out in the straight and the run presents. Probably most worried about the 2-PROBABEEL dropping back out of these with the added potential of a wet track. Really there isn’t much between them at all, but we actually want to push for the 7-SIERRA SUE as the top pick. Just looks perfectly suited in this, won the Lawrence here, should have won the Feehan so could have easily been coming into this race off two WFA wins, only 52kgs, drawn out in clear running and suited swooping down the middle of the track late off a fast speed on a wet track so looks great value at $14. The 5-BEAU ROSSA the main danger, but very tricky ride here from the inside barrier and can never underestimate the flying 1-BEHEMOTH. Respect for the 13-AMISH BOY as the only other winning danger, and then there are a stack of value place chances like the 9-AYSAR, 10-IRISH FLAME and the 15-REGARDSMAREE. Betting plan is something each way on the top pick and a wide trifecta with the main winning chances and the rough place chances.
This is always a sensational meeting with the Caulfield and Thousand Guineas Preludes and the Naturalism and a meeting punters can normally launch into. Since 2000, 8 last start winners (and 13 last start place getters) have won the Guineas Prelude, 13 last start winners (and 18 last start place getters have won the Thousand Guineas Prelude and 3 last start winners (and 9 last start place getters) have won the Naturalism, and it always pays to look for value in that race. Plenty to bet on today so will double the Betting Portfolio up to $100 and have a bet in most races.
BEST BET: Race 5: 1-GENERAL BEAU $10 WIN
Really talented 3YO sprinter, but it was obvious even as a two year old that he struggled at the end of 1100M and he keeps fading badly after looming up like an easy winner in longer races. Back to 1000M here is a massive plus and suited by the set weights scale with form in much better races. Been racing well this time in and really should have these covered in a more suitable race at around $3.50.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 7-DEVOUT HERO $6 EW
This one is coming along nicely in the Thousand Guineas Prelude, well supported and won at first start at Geelong and then just got into the wrong spot at the back of the field at Sandown 2nd up. Ran on really well late there when got into the clear, but the winner had pinched the race already. Fitter for the run over the 1400M and probably settles more handy today and should be looping into the race on the home turn here at around $6 and looks likely to keep improving.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 4-ATHELRIC $6 EW
This one was seriously unlucky last start at MV when he was caught on the rails and travelling well before the home turn and had to wait and ease across runners before launching late and just missing. Both runs this time in have been good and he is racing like the 1400M is going to suit today. Drawn out today is better, he can track into the race out wide with much yelling from D.Olilver and looks value each way at around $10.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 13-GILGANI $5 EW
QUINELLA: Race 6: 13-GILGANI#3,6,7,11 x $4 = 100%
We have backed this one a few times previously and still happy to stick with her. Really tough on pacer who gets a clear lead here at the bottom of the weights and with an apprentice claim to boot and might prove hard to run down. Last start here she took on one in front who has since proven to be pretty darn good, and suspect she took that one on head to head on-speed – and came off second best and she ruptured. But she still fought on pretty well for the length of the straight and should improve as that was first run back off a freshen-up. Back each way at around $14 and nice value quinella if she sticks on on-speed with the main danger the strong finishing 7-SNICKERDOODLEDANDY, the classy 3-ANNAVISTO who does look the one to beat, but is currently a ridiculous $2.20 odds which is far too short, the consistent 6-GOOD AND PROPER and consistent wet tracker 11-AIDENSFIELD.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 7-SIERRA SUE $7 EW
Really talented field for the feature race, but pretty keen to have something each way on this one at around $14. Think she is a bit under-rated, she has shown some pretty outstanding talent, but she has also been a bit hot and cold and hard to follow so often starts at better odds. They seem to have her worked out now though, and she looks really well suited coming into this off a Group 2 Lawrence win, and Group 2 Feehan (which she should have won), into this with 52kgs. Good wet track form, and should be looming into the race out wide here on the turn, whilst the more favoured runners search for runs on the inside. Pretty keen to have a decent each way bet at around $14.
QUINELLA: Race 7: 11-NONCONFORMIST# 2-ANGEL OF TRUTH, 7-CHAPADA, 12-GRAND PROMENADE, 14-REALM OF FLOWERS x $8 = 200%
The Naturalism is always a wide open race, but the 11-NONCONFORMIST looks the one to beat off his last two runs. Unlucky at the back of the field here in the Lawrence and finished on well, and then forward wide and early in the Feehan from a wide barrier and fought on really well. Drawn well here and likely to go forward again and should be ready to win now with the two runs in. Not sure we want to back him straight out though at $4 in a big, even field, so would prefer something with a bit more value. So let’s just anchor him in a quinella with the under-rated 2-ANGEL OF TRUTH who is racing really well, the 7-CHAPADA who rarely wins but might be suited running on late, the very fit on-speed 12-GRAND PROMENADE, and late finishing Melbourne Cup hopeful the 14-REALM OF FLOWERS
BEST ROUGH: Race 1: 8-KAZIO $2 WIN, $4 PLACE
QUINELLA: Race 1 2,5,7,8 boxed x $3 = 50%
Pretty messy first race and not sure we want to have a serious bet, so we are instead going to rather ambitiously have something each way on a $100 shot! This one is normally quite consistent, has placed in half of his 44 starts and is good at running into the placings at odds and has placed 5 from 10 here at Caulfield which is pretty decent. Was struggling for form earlier in the year, but had a break, had two decent jump outs and was actually pretty good last start working home from last on a day where leaders were dictating. We are a fan of apprentice jockey Price on board and he may actually run on OK out wide here if they go hard enough in front. A little dabble at $100, and more the place at $21, and kick off the day with a bold box quinella with the 7-CRESTANI, 2-THE GAUCH and 5-JUST FOLK.
BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 6-CHASSIS $5 EW
QUINELLA: Race 9: 6-CHASSIS, 9-GEIST, 4-LA MEXICANA boxed x $6 = 200%
For some reason this one keeps going around at double figure odds and she keeps racing really well. Pushed a super star mare here last start, and whilst she is probably better over a little further, she does look well suited here drawn well and finishing on late off a fast speed, especially if they are coming off the rails later in the day. Wetter ground probably better for her too. Back each way at around $13 and there is a good value swooping late quinella here boxing her up with the 9-GEIST and 4-LA MEXICANA.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 2: 2-ATHIRI at around $4.50
This is a fairly weak race and this one used to go pretty well, but seemed to lose form last time in. May bounce back to form this time in, but looks a bit of a query on a wet track and given how weak the race is would have thought she would have had solid support if there was any stable confidence? The betting move may come still, but at the moment would be risking unless there was more confidence in the betting market.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a deposit for a nuclear powered paddle boat.
TRIFECTA: Race 8: 5,7 / 1,5,7,13 / 1,2,5,7,9,10,13,15 x $5 = 13.88%
The feature race is always a great trifecta race, so let’s narrow it down to the two top picks to win, 7-SIERRA SUE, 5-BEAU ROSSA, add in the 1-BEHEMOTH and 13-AMISH BOY as the main dangers and go wide with roughies 9-AYSAR, 10-IRISH FLAME and the 15-REGARDSMAREE to place.
Race 1: 7-CRESTANI, 8-KAZIO, 2-THE GAUCH
Race 2: 5-WISDOM OF WATER, 7-HE’S A BALTER, 1-PREZADO
Race 3: 7-DEVOUT HERO, 6-XTRA GEAR, 3-MORIOKA
Race 4: 4-ATHELRIC, 9-RIVERPLATE, 3-BRIGANTINE
Race 5: 1-GENERAL BEAU, 7-FAKE LOVE, 4-DIRECT
Race 6: 13-GILGANI, 7-SNICKERDOODLEDANDY, 3-ANNAVISTO
Race 7: 11-NONCONFORMIST, 2-ANGEL OF TRUTH, 12-GRAND PROMENADE
Race 8: 7-SIERRA SUE, 5-BEAU ROSSA, 1-BEHEMOTH
Race 9: 6-CHASSIS, 9-GEIST, 4-LA MEXICANA
