It is quite hard to line up any possible racing pattern for Saturday. We have had fine, warm, sunny and windy weather heading into the weekend, but there is a wind change and some rain forecast for Saturday which is likely to come through in the morning. Probably won’t be enough rain to really affect the track that much, just take the edge off. If the rain doesn’t come and the wind isn’t a factor we suspect there will be a strong on-speed advantage, but if there is wind around it should even the racing pattern out and you might need cover. Does that make any sense at all?
One of the great mysteries of each Spring Campaign is working out where the Rupert Clarke, Underwood and Guineas Preludes are going to appear every year as it keeps getting shuffled around. We have to say though, this year’s Rupert Clarke is an extremely intriguing race and pretty much makes the race day as you can make a case for many of these. One important thing to note is that this race is normally won by those down in the weights, only 3 horses have carried 56kgs or more in the last 20 years to win. This year is unusual though in that we have quite a few horses at the top end of the weights, with half the field carrying over 56 kgs, whereas normally you would only have 2-3 runners with those weights and a long light weight tail.
The key here is going to be the speed, which looks genuine to fast. They are likely to aggressively go forward with the 6-CLIFF’S EDGE who raced poorly last start back in the field, blinkers go on today and they will go for the lead. The 15-AGE OF CHIVALRY will rail up behind him, with the 14-BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER getting a sit just behind the speed, the 3-DESPATCH out wide and the 11-STREETS OF AVALON settling handy. The race really has two divisions, as after that leading bunch, we have a stack of quality backmarkers like 1-BEST OF DAYS, 8-WIDGEE TURF, 9-DEPRIVE and 12-AMPHITRITE. Which means you actually probably want to be on one that settles middle which looks like 13-ICONOCLASM and even dear old 5-SO SI BON as the one that is going to get that position in running.
Our trusty reliable form notes say that this a tough competitive Group 1 (which it definitely is this year), and you want a fit, in form horse, so a horse who has won or placed in their lead up run, or at least this campaign. We are going to push for the 13-ICONOCLASM here, who is not a horse we normally follow, but looks to have a few things in his favour today. At the bottom of the weights, fitter for 2 runs in, good run last start here when looked like he was going to challenge the winner but just died on the run and meets that one 3.5kgs better today. Does need the track to stay dry, but jockey Meech might make it back to back features for female jockeys in successive weeks and most importantly can just see him slotting into the perfect position in running here midfield. Looks a nice each way bet at around $15 in a very even field. The 12-AMPHITRITE has the class to win this, no weight, ran on exceptionally well first up and will be suited with the speed on here, just needs them to be running on well and winning. Think these two stand out as good value chances. We are quite wary of the old stager 5-SO SI BON here who seems to be racing in career best form, gets the perfect middle slot, just not sure how he ended up with 57kgs as a horse who has only won 3 races. Have to respect the good run here in the Memsie though last start coming home late hard.
As for the favourite, the hype horse 14-BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER, who was pretty good in a pressure Memsie first try at WFA and gets a very nice weight drop to the bottom of the weights here. Concerned about the pressure up front today and suspect he is going to be well backed to start below $3 which will be rock bottom odds and don’t think he represents any value at all in a very even field. The value runners are the ever reliable 8-WIDGEE TURF who we can see tracking into this race nicely with a fast speed up front, he has very solid track and distance statistics and the 1200M was just too short to get warm, but he might just need one more run and some rain. The other roughie to watch is pretty much our favourite horse going around, the tough, consistent on-pacer the 11-STREETS OF AVALON who will be fitter for the two runs in, has excellent track and distance starts, found the 1100M too short first up, and isn’t a Flemington straight horse so expect a lot of improvement today out to a suitable 1400M race. Plenty of value in this race, and maybe a nice exotic anchoring the top two picks to win in a trifecta and going wide for the placings.
We have a topsy-turvy betting program today, with some great races later in the day and some very ordinary races early on. We doubled up on the Betting Portfolio last week and had a wipe out, so will be more cautious today, though we do think there are quite a few roughies that may get into the finish in the selections.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 6-MYSTERY LOVE $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 4: 6-MYSTERY LOVE, 12-FABRIC x $2 = 200%
QUINELLA: Race 4: 6-MYSTERY LOVE# 5,8 x $2= 100%
Promising type who won her first three starts, ran on well 1st up at MV and meets the favourite here the 3-HAUT BRION HER 3kgs better off today from that run. Likely to be better suited at Caulfield, up in distance to 1400M and looks to be going places. Back each way at around $6. We are wary of the 12-FABRIC who was a stand out Black Booker 1st up, but has been entered and scratched one run since so not sure if she has had a set back or not. So save on a quinella mainly with the (12) who looks the value danger, and again with the other chances the 5-SHOKORA and the 8-SO TAKEN.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 5-SIKANDARBAD $5 EW
Stayer we have a bit of time for who seems to be flying this time in. Awesome run 1st up here in the Lawrence when the jockey thought they were going to give MYSTIC JOURNEY a run for their money, and then just got too far back in an on pace dominated Feehan Stakes when flew home late. Fitter for those 2 runs in, and out to the 2000M suits. Would just like them to press forward here today and sit on speed from a good barrier in a race without much pressure up front, but should be very hard to beat at around $5 and may be going better than most of these.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 13-ICONOCLASM $4 EW
Plenty of value around in the feature race in a wide open field, but this one ticks a lot of boxes. Fitter for the 2 runs in, at the bottom of the weights, sits just off a very fast speed and will have a break on the backmarkers in this race. Was going to challenge on the rails last start and just looked to finish on the run and looks ready to perform. Looks a nice each way bet at around $15.
TRIFECTA: Race 5: 4,8 / 4,8 / 3,5,7,13 x $3 = 37%
TRIFECTA: Race 5: 4,8 / 3,5,7,13 / 4,8 x $3 = 37%
Let’s try something different in this race where the short priced favourite the 4-PIPPIE should jump lead and just about win, but we are very wary of the 8-BELLA MARTINI 1st up who has the class to win this and should track her perfectly on speed. Expect these two will jump to the lead and either run 1-2 or fill the placings, and expecting improvement from the 13-DIAMOND EFFORT with the blinkers on who seems to have some ability and other value place chances like the 3-EMBRACE ME, 5-MANICURE, 7-EVERYDAY LADY. Let’s try and snare the trifecta with the two on pacers fighting out the finish for a healthy percentage.
BEST ROUGH: Race 3: 7-MOLDOVA $1.50 EW
Hard race to line up as just about all of these are leaders, so really want to find something that will sit off the speed here and finish on hard. Normally this one goes forward too, but assuming drawn out a bit they will take a sit. Excellent 1st preparation, and then good with weight last start and not sure if the wet track suited. Better placed back to a dry track today, blinkers on first time and looks value at around $20.
BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 7-DESERVED $2 EW
This is an absolutely awful race to line up with plenty of different form lines and a lot of horses early in their career and likely to improve. This one hasn’t done much wrong in 3 career starts to date, is proven over the 1400M, plugged away OK 1st up and should go forward here from a good barrier and make her own luck. Likely to run a race at around $20 in a race where you probably want to find one at odds.
BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 13-VAINSTREAM $1 EW
Pretty talented field in the last, so probably want to watch market moves. Just about the entire field is first up though, so just wonder if something with race fitness might be able to spring a surprise. This one is up sharply in grade, but career stats aren’t that bad and ran really well at Sandown 1st up when looked the winner on the rails before finishing on the run. Just a little last race dabble at around $26.
LAY OF THE DAY : Race 8: 1-KOOWEERUP at around $5.50
Awful race to bet on so you probably don’t want to back the favourite, especially when it has top weight, is drawn out and will drop back in the run in a race with little speed up front. Finding the winner is another matter altogether though. Happy to risk.
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into an entry fee for The Everest.
TRIFECTA: Race 7: 12,13 / 5,8,12,13,14 / 5,8,9,11,12,13,14 x $20 = 12.50%
We think we have found two solid value winning chances in the feature race, the 13-ICONOCLASM and 12-AMPHITRITE. So take them to win in a trifecta, and go wide in the placings with some of the main dangers to run 2nd, 5-SO SI BON, 8-WIDGEE TURF, 14-BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER, and just hope our favourite horse the 11-STREETS OF AVALON plonks into the finish at odds on speed to blow out the dividend.
Race 1: 5-BUT IT’S TRUE, 4-HEIR TO THE THRONE, 3-ARISTOCRATIC MISS
Race 2: 3-LONG JACK, 4-SKIDDAW, 2-THE LIFELINE
Race 3: 7-MOLDOVA, 1-I AM IMMORTAL, 5-GARNER
Race 4: 6-MYSTERY LOVE, 12-FABRIC, 8-SO TAKEN
Race 5: 4-PIPPIE, 8-BELLA MARTINI, 13-DIAMOND EFFORT
Race 6: 5-SIKANDARBAD, 11-SUPER TITUS, 4-STEEL PRINCE
Race 7: 13-ICONOCLASM, 12-AMPHITRITE, 5-SO SI BON
Race 8: 7-DESERVED, 12-EXCUSED, 16-TRAGIC
Race 9: 8-LYRE, 11-WILLIAM THOMAS, 13-VAINSTREAM
