Clear weather heading into the weekend and suspect this track is going to come up fairly firm and improve from the current GOOD(4) rating with no sign of rain around. We really wish they would make a decision about when they are running these feature races, the old Show Day program has been split and chopped and changed so many times in recent years, and the Underwood and Rupert Clarke Stakes are continually flip flopped around race meetings. Which means today’s races end up being MRC Foundation Cup (Group 3) Day, even though there is a feature Group 1 on the program, which is the race we will do the detailed form analysis for.
Just be wary of the racing pattern today, on a firm track with the rail OUT 9M, suspect it may favour those racing on the speed. Which makes it interesting with the feature Group 1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes which is a field full of quality backmarkers (and the race is probably much better run on the following meeting where the rail is TRUE).
There doesn’t seem to be a huge amount of pressure up front in the Rupert Clarke and suspect the tempo will only be even. We do have a few leaders, with 2-HOME OF THE BRAVE, 3-SHOWTIME, 7-HELLOVA STREET, 10-DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR (drawn wide, probably takes a sit) and 14-MISS GUNPOWDER all capable of going forward, but most of those will also just be happy to take a cosy sit behind the speed so don’t think they will burn along. This race is often a bit rough, and some of those back in the field will need the breaks to come at the right time.
Most of these runners have a winning chance in a very even field. We are going to push for one at double figure odds here in the 13-OREGON’S DAY. Fitter for the two runs in which have both been promising, and put in a great run when not suited under the WFA scale here last start. Finished not far from the favoured (4) and (8) here 1st up, and meets them both 2kgs better off today. She is a bit under rated and has a devastating finishing burst that can win a Group 1 here. The key is going to be the jockey getting the race tactics right, she doesn’t need to drop back and can actually settle 4th to 6th and in running room outside runners, and if she settles there and is the first to go for home on the bend and kick clear, think the back markers may struggle to run her down. Main danger is the 8-LAND OF PLENTY who is in flying form, having now won 4 of last 6 starts (which means he also only won 1 from 16 before that). Seems to have totally turned the corner and is on the up, but will drop well back from an outside barrier and need them to be running on OK. Respect for the on pacer 10-DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR, who will probably take a sit just off the speed from an outside barrier, but is fit and in form over this trip, and the 12-MR SNEAKY who is fitter for the two runs in, and really looked to have this race shot to pieces last year when kicked clear in the straight, until a freakish performer came out and ran him down. He is another who is going to drop well back though and need luck. Wary of the classy on pace import 2-HOME OF THE BRAVE whose two runs in Australia has both been excellent and probably gets the run of the race here, only concern is that this isn’t a race those up near the top of the weights win often (only one horse has carried 57kgs or more in the last 20 years and won). Best roughie is actually the tough on pace mare 14-MISS GUNPOWDER, who will get a great run on speed from an good barrier draw and is one to put in to boost your trifecta and first four dividend. Really interesting race, both in terms of tactics and betting and you can find plenty of value in this field.
For the rest of the program there is a pretty tricky card with either short priced favourites who should just about win, or full fields with 4 emergencies where it is hard to know who is going to get a start. Some very open races too and there are plenty of double figure horses in the selections and think we can find a value winner or two along the way. Sure to be some long shots pop up today, and don’t be scared to go wide in doubles, etc to keep safe.
BEST WIN: Race 4: 14-SHOKO $6 WIN
BEST WIN: Race 4: 10-LADY OF FLANDERS $2 WIN
Really keen to have a bet in his race and think one of these two wins. The (14) has been showing a lot of promise in her three career starts, tough run last start at Sandown when challenged in the lead and came off the rails to the middle of the track but still fought out the race well. Drawn inside here, looks the clear leader, track may favour those on speed and looks very hard to beat. The (10) is one we are following this spring and she has been showing a lot of promise. Excellent wins 1st two starts this time in when challenged and drew away from them, and then just dropped back one spot too far here last start, took a while to get into the clear and finished on well when she did. Out to the 1400m should suit. Have a confident bet straight out on the top pick at around $7 and save on the main danger at around $13 and we are going to go again in the Running Double in the Wonder Bet below as we are really keen on these two today.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 1: 1-SEBERATE $3 EW
QUINELLA: Race 1: 1-SEBERATE#8,9 x $2 = 100%
Taking this one on trust a bit as career stats are starting to look a bit wobbly and has been out of form. Fitter for the 2 runs in and the step up in distance and was OK with big weight last start racing on speed. Looked really promising early on in career and probably should have won the VRC Sires Produce when was ridden aggressively forward from an wide barrier. First race of the day, small field, not much pressure up front, if they go forward here he should actually win this on his best form (that’s if he shows it). Each way at around $8, and take a quinella with the two other on pacers the 8-LOUIE THE LEGEND, 9-THUNDERDOME
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 8-BANDIPUR $3 EW
Fairly open race here but surprised about the odds on offer about this one. Good career stats, unbeaten at this distance, put two good wins together and then was out the back and wide last start at MV on the day it was a dynamite leaders track so a total forgive run. Don’t mind him drawn wide as a horse that likes to drop back and run on, and looks a value each way bet at around $12.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 13-OREGON’S DAY $5 EW
Going away from the first few in the market in the feature race, but think this mare gets her chance today in this Group 1. Fitter for the 2 runs in, back to a handicap, has the Group 1 sprint finish, and has been competitive against most of these, just probably needs a slightly more positive ride today. Each way at around $14 and think we will get better odds on the tote come race time once the moves come for the more highly favoured runners.
QUINELLA: Race 6: 3,4,7,14,18 (emerg) boxed x $5 = 50%
In a wide open 3YO fillies race with plenty of chances let’s take a box quinella around our selections, most of which are double figure odds, so the quinella should pay OK. The value roughie is the 18-CROSS LEGEND who had no luck at all last start – but is third emergency so probably unlikely to get a run. If she doesn’t make the field replace her with the 2-KINKY BOOM.
BEST ROUGH: Race 2: 15-AYERS ROCK $1 WIN, $2 PLACE
Totally a throw at the stumps bet here at $61 as this one does mix his form a fair bit, and realistically the favourite the (8) should just about win this race. But this field is full of out of form horses, a lot of whom drop back and this one will just burn to the lead and dare them to run him down. SCR from Adelaide to run here. Should lead clearly, if there is a racing pattern towards on pacers he may actually run a lot better than expected. If you are taking exotics in this race throw in the other on pacer the 14-SNIPFIT as well, suspect one of them will stick on into the finish at odds.
BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 11-RISING RED $2.50 EW
Super open staying race and very hard to line them up here, there does seem to be a lot of speed / on pacers which is highly unusual for a staying race. This one is 2nd up and up 400m, but has drawn OK and can go forward too. Really liked the run last start, pulled out wide on the turn, threw head around a bit, but finished on really well. Might just need one more to find best, but proven over longer trips, and has decent career stats and suspect he is going to go on this spring. Rough at around $16 in a very tough race. The one we really want to back in this, is the backmarker 18-YOGI (emerg), who will be suited with the speed on, but question is whether he gets into the field as second emergency, and he is entered for Adelaide as well, so backing the roughie instead.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 6: 8-ANJANA at around $4.80
Wide open 3YO fillies 1400M race and this one is currently favourite – and to be honest we really can’t work out why. Unbeaten in first three starts in weaker races, and then run was fair last start at MV when made OK ground late. She is actually meeting 3 horses here the (3), (5) and (7), who all beat her home last start, and some of whom were far better runs, who are all currently at longer odds than her. In a race with many chances happy to risk her in this.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more.
RUNNING DOUBLE: Race 4,5 10, 14 / 8,9,12,14,15 x $5 = 50%
We are really keen on the 14-SHOKO, 10-LADY OF FLANDERS in the first leg, and that opens us up to a nice value running double into the second leg. We have already backed 8-BANDIPUR, other dangers are the (14) and (9). Throw in the roughie (15) and it would be foolish to leave out the mighty 12-BRYAN who is going to be hunting for a third $20 Caulfield win on end and punters might get stung – yet again.
Race 1: 1-SEBERATE, 8-LOUIE THE LEGEND, 9-THUNDERDOME
Race 2: 8-LUCKY FOR ALL, 5-AL GALAYEL, 15-AYERS ROCK
Race 3: 1-WRITTEN BY, 3-GYTRASH , 2-ROCK HARD,
Race 4: 14-SHOKO, 10-LADY OF FLANDERS, 9-SHOKORA
Race 5: 8-BANDIPUR, 14-OBERLAND, 9-SPENDING TO WIN
Race 6: 14-GOLDEN HALO, 4-MYSTIC JOURNEY, 3-KRONE
Race 7: 18-YOGI (emerg), 16-ODEON, 11-RISING RED, 5-OUR VENICE BEACH,
Race 8: 13-OREGON’S DAY, 8-LAND OF PLENTY, 10-DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR
Race 9: 7-I AM EXCITED, 1-GLOBAL GLAMOUR, 2-ELLICAZOOM
