Was a tough day on the punt on Melbourne Cup Day but we still managed a few winners with Best Win bet Race 2: 2-OPENING ADDRESS 1st W=$4.40 and Best Rough: Race 10: 13-BEL AIR 1st W=$12.40 with plenty of other winners in the selections.
Been a warm week and they have put a lot of irrigation on this track. Saturday with strong head-winds they could win running on, Cup Day there was a strong on-speed and close to the rails bias (which was not unexpected). Expect that racing pattern to continue to favour those on-speed, though they should be able to run on and win later in the day, but barriers will be important today. Middle to outside will be fastest down the straight races, but there probably won’t be much between each side.
This is a bit of a messy punting program with a few clear favourites in well lined-up fields, and then a few total raffle races so again we may see some long shot winners like we did on Cup Day.
For Spring Campaign 2024 tips will be posted race day at around 10am (earlier if time allows). Feature race preview at the bottom of this post.
BEST WIN: Race 2: 1-KALLOS
QUINELLA: Race 2: 1-KALLOS#3,6,8,11 x $5 = 125%
Usually this 1000M race is a good race for a confident bet and the thing to note here is the set weight and penalties weight scale which means those towards the bottom don’t get that much of a weight pull for form in weaker grades. This one has excellent track and distance stats, and proven down the straight is always important form indicator for straight races. Held up badly for runs on the inside last start, and can sit behind the speed here and pounce late – Flemington straight track and firm ground are big ticks. Odds of $3.40 is a bit short for a straight out bet, so again let’s try for some value in a quinella with the 3-RECOMMENDATION leading, the 6-KATSU who is proven down the straight and didn’t like the inside barrier last start, the 8-GARZA BLANCA in a new stable who has some ability and the 11-FRILLED who hasn’t had much luck in weaker races.
BEST WIN: Race 5: 13-SABAN $5 WIN
QUINELLA: Race 5: 13-SABAN#2,8,10 x $5 = 166%
This one was super impressive winning here first up, running over the top of them out wide and then went forward at Caulfield and stuck on OK, but happy to forgive a run second up and up in distance. Nicely in here at the bottom of the weights, draw wide to drop back and come down the middle of the track again and most of these have little in the way of form so looks the one to beat here. Back straight out at around $5 and anchor in a quinella with the 2-INDEPENDENT ROAD who is ready to do something now leading on a dry track, the 10-PICAROON who won on this day last year and is better suited back in distance and dear ol’ 8-VERDAD who has now run four seconds in a row as favourite and you would have to be brave to jump back on today even though it looks the perfect race for him and jockey McDonald going on board. This is the main bet of the day.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 12-NEARING LIBERTY $4 EW
Big even field and want to back something here with upside that is well-drawn and can go forward at each-way odds and this looks the perfect pick. Been going up in class and distance every start this time in and handling it well, last start at Caulfield had to work early to go forward and still stuck on really well down the straight. Likely to get the perfect sit just off the speed today and run into the race at the right time at around $10.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 3-SECOND TO NUN $4 EW
This is a pretty weak edition of this race and not convinced how well a lot of these are going. This one is always really consistent over in Adelaide, she had little luck when strong late in the Seymour Cup and then set a task trying out the 2000M trip at MV. Better suited back to the 1600M here and might settle more forward today in a small field. Always strong of the end of her races and this looks a winnable race today. Each way at around $10.
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 6-TITAN OF CHOICE $2 EW
QUINELLA: Race 6 4,6,7,12,16 boxed x $5 = 50%
Feature country mile and a stack of value to be had here so you could probably back a few at $20 and over. What is quite noticeable is how few of these are actually proven over the 1600M so maybe stick with those proven at the distance. This one does has a tendency to run on late and place, but really like really like how he is going this time in, excellent run 1st up down the straight here, cleared away down the middle to win at Seymour and then dropped back to 1200M with a very big weight (63kgs) when presented but just seem to labour late. Much better suited back to 1600M here in a big field running on late. Little something each way at around $40 and a value quinella here boxing up the 12-TORRANZINO who gets jockey McDonald on board and runs the 1600M (maybe just needs to not drop so far back), the 7-ELECTRIC IMPULSE who has been racing well and can jump quickly and may go forward here, the 4-MAGARTEN well drawn with the best 1600M record in the race and the 16-SAN MARINO on-speed from a good barrier.
BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 8-FEMMINILE $2.50 EW
This one seems to be building nicely this spring and may cause the surprise in the Oaks. Looks a strong finishing staying type suited at Flemington and out to the 2500M today. The form of those behind the first two in the Wakeful is mediocre at best, and the Sydney form seems to be rather bunched so there is plenty of room of something from a different form line to get into the finish here. Looks to have upside and may be a little untapped this spring. Keen to have something each-way at $26 (and note some corporates are paying out 2nd as the winner so this is a good way to use that offer).
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 4: 5-RUNNING BY at around $4
To be honest we are not sure we really want to Lay this one as we have been wanting to back it all spring – but she just keeps getting scratched! Last start was here 14/09 on an unsuitable wet track, since then been entered and scratched Flemington 05/10 (late scratching, track downgrade), Caulfield 12/10 (wet track), Caulfield 19/10 (not sure why?), MV 25/10/ (not sure why?) and there may be one more we have missed. On her best form, rolling on-speed Flemington dry track she would win this, but hard to see how this has been an ideal preparation. Maybe wait till she is actually in the barriers before having a bet!
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a $3 million First Four collect.
RUNNING DOUBLE: Races 5,6: 13-SABAN / 4,6,7,12,16 x $5 = 100%
The country mile race is wide open with plenty of chances over $20, so lets anchor the best bet of the day Race 5: 13-SABAN in a Running Double and hope for a result in the second leg.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 6,7,8,9: 4,5,6,7,9,12,16 / 2,3,7,9,13,14 / 1,5,8 / 2,11 x $20 = 7.9%
Looks a super wide first two legs today in the Quaddie so load them up with plenty of $20+ shots and hope for a good kick off. Take the main two in the Oaks, but hope for our roughie 8-FEMMINILE as a blow out, and we can be confident and go narrow in the last leg on the top two chances.
Feature Race Preview: RACE 8: VRC OAKS
Traditionally the Wakeful is the best form race for the Oaks and the winner of the Wakeful (or the best run from that race) invariably wins the Oaks, so normally it’s one of the few races you can confidently bet on a short-priced favourite. Since 2000, there have been 15 starters in the Wakeful who have gone on to win the Oaks, and 8 winners of the Wakeful completing the double. Only slight disclaimer on that is that we have had the spring schedule re-organised a bit in the last couple of years and we have several runners coming through the Spring Champion Stakes in Sydney this year which is always a really strong form race and we need to try and line them up to the Melbourne fillies.
Speed here should be even only, with the 9-KILCARE BEACHGIRL leading from the 10-NOISES and the 13-PLACID PEARL, 11-HURRY CURRY next in line. Plenty of chance here for something to settle handy and burst away from them here and can’t see this being run as a true staying contest to suit a lot of those who have been running on from well-behind in the lead-up runs.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-TREASURETHE MOMENT totally burnt us with a very impressive win here on Saturday after we made her the Lay Of The Day. Career stats are looking very impressive, racking up three wins in a row whilst most of these have been running well beaten 4ths and 5ths. Was absolutely jog trotting here on the home turn on Derby Day, her arch rival the (5) was level pegging with her but was under pressure trying to keep up. Start before at Caulfield she only just got there, so the class of the Wakeful win was a bit of a surprise. Wakeful winners invariably go on to win the Oaks, she can go forward and settle handle and seems to have a really good turn of foot. One to beat.
2-TOO DARN DISCREET has been showing a lot of potential this spring, she ran over the top of them in the hail storm at Flemington, and then was first for home around the turn at Caulfield and looked vulnerable half-way down the straight, but she fought back to win. She does have a tendency to lay in though and race a bit erratically and that may be an issue going up to 2500M. Would probably want a genuine speed on. Likely to drop back here and would want to get outside runners for a run down the middle of the track. Has the ability, just not quite sure about the maturity. Chance.
3-HARLEM QUEEN has been consistently in the finish in every career start to date, and has been coming along nicely this time in. Strong finish in the Flight Stakes which was a sit-sprint in a small field and chased hard in the Spring Champion Stakes. Drawn well and can probably settle handy here. Hard to line up the Sydney form against the Melbourne fillies, but keep an eye on the market here, if she is good the money will come for this one. Chance.
4-RAG QUEEN has been mixing her form up in Sydney, dropping well back and not really getting into the finish of her races. Was good late two starts back behind a smart one, and on paper her form doesn’t look good enough for this No.
5-POWERS OF OPAL went around at the insane odds of $1.90 here in the Wakeful coming off a Sydney maiden win. Obviously has a stack of potential and a huge spruik on her. She stuck to her task well down the straight and chased the winner for the length of the straight, without really making any ground off her. Question is if she can now outstay her over 2500M and that is definitely a possibility. She will be giving her a head start on the home turn, and this could turn into a pretty exciting finish with the (1) kicking clear early in the straight and this one coming out and trying to run her down. More genuine tempo and true staying test would suit this one. Strong chance.
6-PLEASURE ARTIST has been coming along nicely in her first preparation, and hit the line really well two starts back before being even last start. Not sure how much there is between a few of these coming through those Sydney races and finding them a bit difficult to line up. Really done nothing wrong in career to date and probably some rough chance in this. Rough.
7-TALISAY ran on well late here in the Wakeful and the race there probably wasn’t run to suit, it was sit and sprint race and she is strong staying type who wants the speed on. She was really good the start before in the Hill-Smith over in Adelaide behind the Derby winner. She tends to drop back in her runs which makes it very difficult to win, but looks like she will stay the 2500M and would be a really good rough chance in a solidly run race. Her last two runs have been pretty good so she is some rough chance here. Rough.
8-FEMMINILE might be going into this race a little under-rated, go back and watch the outstanding last to first win against the outside rail in Adelaide back in June. Building up to a win this time in, she chased hard behind the males at Flemington and then really liked the Caulfield run, she settled handy, got dropped when they sprinted for home on the turn, but was really strong to the line. She is probably equal with the winner of that race off that run at least, and she has more improvement to come. Wide barrier and likely to settle back here but she looks the strong staying type to run on down the middle of the track. Odds look totally wrong here and think she is a strong rough chance in this. Great rough chance.
9-KILCARE BEACHGIRL is a Waterhouse stable on-speed stayer and likely leader in this. She stopped pretty quickly at Caulfield, but effort here on Saturday was probably better than it looked, she stuck on OK on a day it was impossible to lead, but was safely held by the first two home there. Can control the speed here and track may still play to those on-speed, but suspect she gets outstayed out to the 2500M here unless she can set a really slow tempo. No.
10-NOISES has been racing along nicely on-speed up in Sydney. She tried to set a sedate tempo last start but one dashed past her mid-race and threw her rhythm off. Likely to go forward here but is pretty rare for a leader to win the Oaks and others seem to have her measure in this. No
11-HURRY CURRY was scratched from the barrier here on Saturday so going into this race one run short is not ideal. Form before that was solid and big plus with her is that she makes her own luck and settles on-speed and can be in the right position turning for home. Good winning here two starts back and then presented at Caulfield but made little impression. She is well drawn and can settle handle just think a few of these will outstay her here. Decent place chance though in a slowly run race. Place.
12-INEVITABLE TRUTH is still a maiden, but keeps doing her best work at the end of her races suggesting she is looking for more distance. Last three runs have been pretty much identical, well beaten but running on well late to the line, but just being beaten a decent margin. Question is will getting out to the 2500M make the difference today? She will want a strong tempo on and probably works home well again, but prefer place again. Place.
13-PLACID PEARL is coming through Sydney provincial staying form, but at least is fit and in form. Drawn wide, but likes to settle handy and not sure she has the class to win this. No
14-ALL KINDS OF FOLK is a maiden who has been safely held in her lead-up runs by many going around here. Best run was in the hail at Flemington when was strong late in tough conditions but has been safely held since. Probably jumps and settles handy, but just battling at the moment. No
Summary:
We could be set up for a pretty interesting finish here with the two favourites fighting out the finish, the 1-TREASURETHE MOMENT sitting handy and sprinting for home and the 5-POWERS OF OPAL coming out and trying to run her down. They are the most obvious choices in a race that often throws up the most obvious. But we want to push for the 8-FEMMINILE at odds in this, really like that last run at Caulfield and she looks like she will run out the 2500M strongly down the middle of the track and is capable of causing the upset against the form patterns here. Really not sure about the Sydney runners and there doesn’t seem to be much between them. Best roughie is the 7-TALISAY who will also stay but will want a solidly run race. So the Wakeful winner and favourite looks the one to beat, but happy to have something each way on the second pick 8-FEMMINILE at good odds.
Race 1: 2-CALLMEANICON, 3-GREY ICE, 8-SWYCHO
Race 2: 1-KALLOS, 3-RECOMMENDATION, 8-GARZA BLANCA
Race 3: 12-NEARING LIBERTY, 13-ALMA RISE, 15-HEAVENLY EAGLE
Race 4: 3-SECOND TO NUN, 4-POIFECT, 7-MOLLYNICKERS
Race 5: 13-SABAN, 2-INDEPENDENT ROAD, 10-PICAROON
Race 6: 6-TITAN OF CHOICE, 12-TORRANZINO, 7-ELECTRIC IMPULSE
Race 7: 3-BOLD BASTILLE, 7-KARAVAS, 2-TOBEORNOTTOBE
Race 8: 1-TREASURETHE MOMENT, 8-FEMMINILE, 5-POWERS OF OPAL
Race 9: 11-POISION CHALICE, 2-LIGHT INFANTRY MAN, 14-WASCALY
