After a pretty bleak start to Cup Week the sun is finally going to come out tomorrow and it all looks like a very pleasant day for the races. We just wish they would start this meeting later and run it as a twilight meeting to attract the afternoon CBD crowd. The track is going to stay very firm, and get firmer on a sunny day and it has been quite obvious there has been a strong on pace, inside rail bias for most of the week with very little making ground out wide on Cup Day (poor SWACEDELIC).
The rail goes out 3M here, but we reckon that pattern is going to continue, and normally whatever racing pattern there is for Cup Week stays for the week. Look for inside barriers and on pacers, though with big fields some of these races might get run at a fast speed and allow them to run on, as the last race on Cup Day was. Down the straight they suddenly switched to the outside rail late on Tuesday and expect that is where they were go again, but when that happens it can get squishy, and you maybe want to be drawn back in a little so you get a clear run through.
In the feature race, the 1-ALOISIA is all the rage at a very, very short $1.55. Her form this spring has been sensational, the Thousand Guineas is the form race of the spring with SHOALS winning on Saturday and then she was very impressive winning the MV Vase. She is definitely the one to beat, and the favourite often wins the Oaks. She is top pick, but to be honest, we think she is shocking value and can’t possibly consider backing her at those odds. Remember JAMEKA also won the MV Vase and then won the Oaks – starting at around $4. She also has some genuine competition here, the 2-LUVALUVA was very impressive weaving through the field here on Saturday and finishing on strongly, and the 4-PINOT was really good crossing from an outside barrier and fighting on to win at Caulfield. If she gets to the lead here and the track is favouring on pacers again she is going to be very hard to run down. The value runner is the 5-HIYAAM who keeps sitting on speed and getting into the finish of her races, and is likely to do the same here, and the true stayer the 8-RELIABLE DAME who was really good coming from last in the Geelong Classic. Not a race we are that keen to bet on, though we might take some trifectas anchoring some of the better place chances and hope for a dividend.
Oaks Day is often a day for short priced favourites, but this year we have some very big fields and some extremely tricky races so there is going to be a bit of value around. We can spot quite a few roughies were are interested in, so let’s hope our good Cup Week form continues.
BEST WIN : Race 7: 2-SAMBRO $5 WIN
QUINELLA: Race 7: 2-SAMBRO, 4-BLACK SAIL x $1.50
QUINELLA: Race 7: 2-SAMBRO, 7-CAPTAIN JIMMY x $1.50
One of the golden rules of Cup Week is that you get on horses who have run well and are backing up within the week, This one ran a great race on Saturday in a much harder field, hitting the lead halfway down the straight and only just getting pipped on the line. Drawn a nice barrier, can sit handy, although there does seem to be a bit of pressure up front in this race. Jockey and stable are a bit over due for a winner this week. We should mention that his main rival here the 6-IRISH VEGA is also backing up off a good run at the weekend, but has drawn wide and will drop back so would want to see how the track is racing. Back straight out at around $4, and the quinella should pay OK in a big field with two in form horses the 4-BLACK SAIL and the 7-CAPTAIN JIMMY.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 10-FOX HALL $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 5: 10-FOX HALL, 9-ECHO EFFECT x $2 = 200%
This one stung punters badly last start at MV when got beaten as a $1.65 favourite, which was crazy odds. Lightly raced with a really good win/place strike rate and looks to be a horse on the up. Strikes quite an even field here, most of these have some chance, but drawn inside and can sit handy and get the run of the race in a small field. We like to pay attention to stable placements, and worth noting he was scratched from a $120K race on Tues for this $200K Group 3 race. Field is already down to 8 runners, so would like to keep the three place dividends but looks a pretty safe each way bet at around $6. Take a quinella also with the 9-ECHO EFFECT who was good at Caulfield making an early and wide run to go forward because of the track pattern.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 3-BADAJOZ $4 EW
One we have having a love/hate relationship with as we made it Lay of the Day two starts back and he stung us when he got a dream sit on the rails on a leader’s track. Bravely made it Lay of the Day again last start, and as predicted, got caught up back on the inside as a drop back horse from an inside barrier around the MV 955M, but flew late. Happy to switch teams and get on today though, drawn wide down the straight which should be the better going, and really is racing pretty well. Will be finishing hard late down the outside rail, may just need the splits to come at the right time, but has solid Flemington straight track form. Each way at around $6.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 3-SPLIT LIP $3 EW
Big field coming to the outside rail can always be a little tricky and this one does drop back, so he might need some gaps to open at the right time to get through. Suited under this weight scale as has been running well in much harder races. Ran on well here 3 starts back, and then in the finish last start, dropping back on leaders tracks. Gets into a much more suitable race here and seems to be racing pretty well. Looks over the odds at around $14 and a nice value bet coming into the last race if you need a get out.
BEST ROUGH: Race 2: 8-PORTION CONTROL $3 EW
QUINELLA: Race 2: 5,7,8,10 boxed x $3 = 50%
Think we have spotted one at great odds here, though the market is a bit inflated because the 1-ODEON is still in the field and unlikely to run after winning impressively here on Tuesday. This one is pretty honest when in form, is fitter for the 2 runs in back in from a let up and they were both good, running on from back in the field. Should be able to settle a lot closer to the speed here from a good barrier and previously has good city form around this trip. Just looks ready to do something and think the $23 on offer at the moment is great value. Back each way and take a box quinella in a race with some good value chances like the 5-HOGMANAY on speed, the consistent 7-CARRAIG AONAIR, and the ready to improve 10-WAR LEGEND.
BEST ROUGH: Race 3: 9-HARBOUR GREY $2 EW
It is great they even have internationals coming out now to target the All Greys Race! This one is normally pretty consistent, has ability, but has never quite got to the level he should, but still has pretty good career stats. Placed 3 from 4 this track, 6 from 7 this distance, and was an unlucky 4th in this race last year when he got baulked for a run and had to switch around runners. Hit the lead too early in the straight at Geelong and got run down late, but should be fitter for that run. Can sit handy here, and just looks awesome value at around $18, in a strong greys field, considering his 1400M statistics.
LAY OF THE DAY : Race 1: 16-SWORN EVIDENCE at around $4.60
Totally impossible race to kick of the program with a very even field of 16 starts and barriers and position in running will be crucial here. Struggling to work out why this one is a clear favourite, though, did beat a smart one 3 starts back, but two runs since then have just been OK. Stepping up to the 1700M for the first time, and stable must have an opinion to be these odds, but pretty much would prefer to steer clear of this race, or back something at double figure odds as you deserve it if you find the winner here. Happy to go around this one today.
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more.
QUAD: Races 6,7,8,9: 2,3,4,8 / 2,4,7 / 1,2 / 3,4 x $5 = 10.42%
The quaddie today is achievable, but could still pay OK. Everyone will be anchoring the favourite the 1-ALOISIA in the Oaks, but think the odds about her are awful, so put the main danger the 2-LUVALUVA in and the dividend blows out if she gets beaten. There should be some value in the first leg, with the value runner being the 8-I’M TELLING YA and throw in the 4-SHAF outside the selections. We are keen on the 2-SAMBRO in the second leg, but there is plenty of value about the two other selections the 4-BLACK SAIL, 7-CAPTAIN JIMMY. Be brave in the last race and come home on the 3-SPLIT LIP, 4-JORDA both at over $10, but realistically this is the leg you might want to load up some outsiders, especially those drawn outside barriers.
Race 1: 10-SO SPLENDID, 9-LILYMORN, 8-I’M A PRINCESS
Race 2: 8-PORTION CONTROL, 5-HOGMANAY, 7-CARRAIG AONAIR
Race 3: 6-SILVERA, 9-HARBOUR GREY, 5-URBAN RULER
Race 4: 3-EMOJI, 13-TRANQUIL MISS, 20-AURUM SPIRIT (emerg), 2-NIGHT’S WATCH
Race 5: 10-FOX HALL, 9-ECHO EFFECT, 1-ULMANN
Race 6: 3-BADAJOZ, 2-BALL OF MUSCLE, 8-I’M TELLING YA
Race 7: 2-SAMBRO, 4-BLACK SAIL, 7-CAPTAIN JIMMY
Race 8: 1-ALOISIA, 2-LUVALUVA, 6-HIYAAM
Race 9: 3-SPLIT LIP, 4-JORDA, 1-DEBONAIRLY
