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| FLEMINGTON: OAKS DAY - 5th Nov 2015 |
| Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: SHOWERS - Rail: OUT 2M |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): There is some rain coming through on Wednesday night and showers in the morning Thursday which might take the edge of this track. The Flemington track has been a debacle this week, with those leading or racing on the rails winning Saturday and the middle section of the track largely declared off limits on Cup Day meaning they split in two down the straight. So really hard doing the form until we know the racing pattern, because basically most horses have just had no chance this week. The rail is staying in the same position as Tuesday, but surely must be starting to wear by now? You would think if there is a bit of rain it should even things out. So let’s hope for even racing, but realistically – it will probably favour those racing on the speed again. We might start heading towards a genuinely wet track though so do your wet track form as well. There are a lot of races down the straight on Oaks day, which makes doing the form pre race day really hard. They split up down the straight on Tuesday wanting to avoid the middle section of the track which was no good. So one side will probably be quicker, and you will want to be either hard up against the inside or outside rails. Once we know what is going on there, you can have a bet with confidence. Actually much keener to bet today than Cup day and there seems to be plenty of great chances at odds today. BEST BET: Race 8: 2-JAMEKA $7 WIN The Oaks is usually a pretty good race to have a solid confident bet and there are normally not that many chances and the favourite often wins. This one is in sensational form, she has been right in the finish every start this time in and she won for us at MV when she railed and chased hard to run down one that had kicked and gone for home. Looks a classy, but tough on pace staying type and she should sit handy here with not much speed , on a track that has been favouring those racing on speed all week and simply be too good. Her main rival, and race favourite the (3) will be giving her a head start into the straight, and much prefer to be on this one. Think she is close to a good thing and keen to have a confident bet at around $4. BEST WIN: Race 5: 1-RAGNAAR $5 WIN This one has been racing well in much harder races and is well weighted coming back to carry equal weights against many of these. Wasn’t beaten that far in the Caulfield Classic, a far superior race to this and then presented in the Geelong Classic at the top of the straight but found a few better. Big drop back in class here and really surprised about the $4.80 on offer – thought he would be more like a $3 chance. Guess the outside barrier is going to be the issue, but maybe they can go forward early and offset that. Think he just wins and is a class above these. Only having $5 here though, but also going one out in an Early Quad in the Turf Deli Wonder Bet. BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 6-FIREHOUSE ROCK $2.50 EW QUINELLA: Race 2: 6-FIREHOUSE ROCK, 9-BERISHA x $1.50 = 150% QUINELLA: Race 2: 6-FIREHOUSE ROCK, 4-LUCKY PADDY x $1 = 100% This guy is a bit of a nemesis of ours, we have backed him plenty of times and he has a very nasty habit of hitting the lead and then deciding to stop. But they seemed to have worked him out, they need to ride him cold and make sure he doesn’t hit the lead too soon. Only just missed when flying late at Caulfield. Just seems to be going better than many of these and he is proven past 1600M – and many of these are not. Jockey has been on board last 2 starts so knows what to do with this one. Will need them to be running on OK, but there actually isn’t that much speed in this and there is no reason why they couldn’t sit a lot more forward. Just looks really nice odds at around $12 with only 54.5kgs with form in much better races. Can he do it for us today finally? Hope so. Back him each way and take quinellas with the main chances the (4) and the (9) in case he turns it up yet again. BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 4-QUICKSILVER LASS $2.50 EW Everyone talks about how weak the Cups are in a certain year – but how weak have the All Greys races been this spring? There has been tiny fields and the same horses most weeks – so let’s look for a new one. This one actually has a good win strike rate and can go forward which might be important today. Last start winner with 59kgs and drops to 54kgs here and just seems to have some genuine form – unlike many of these. Nice each way bet at around $13. BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 13-TUDOR $4 WIN QUINELLA: Race 6: 13-TUDOR#3,6,11,12,16 x $2.50 = 50% This one has been racing super consistently. No luck at Cranbourne 1st up when didn’t get a run on the rails when he had plenty to give, and then we were on him at MV when he kicked clear on the turn and got run down late on a track that was suiting those swooping. Drawn inside and will go forward here and that is probably going to be the best side of the straight. Back to win at around $11 and anchor him in the quinella in a big field which should pay pretty well. BEST ROUGH: Race 4: 19-LITTLE INDIAN $2 EW This one is a maiden, but has been racing extremely well. Flashed home at Caulfield 2 starts back in a very strong form race, behind two they have gone on and then given no chance at Cranbourne when ridden too far back when a short priced favourite. Main issue here is going to be the barrier 2, a drop back horse, and the straight track favouring on pacers on the rails, but you would think the field will split so that might reduce traffic on the inside rail and just needs the jockey (who is riding extremely well at the moment) to get some gaps at the right time. Nice roughie at around $21, and might get much better odds come race time. BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 6-I LOVE IT $2.50 EW QUINELLA: Race 7: 2,4,6,13,18 boxed x $5 = 50% This one has been racing well and will be fitter for the 2 runs in and looks ready to win now. She was hitting the line really hard behind a few of these last start and suspect she has more improvement to come than them. Placed in a good quality sprint over in Adelaide during the winter. Drawn a nice inside barrier, and if the inside is the way to go she is going to be able to sit just off the speed here and run into the race at the right time. Big even field, so plenty of chances and happy to have something each way on this one at around $20, but expect even longer odds on the day. In a big even race take a box quinella as well, but you may want to put in one extra runner or two depending on which side of the straight is quicker, but throw in the classy favourite the 2-LUMOSTY, the consistent 4-MISS PROMISCUITY, the in form 18-TUSCAN SLING and the super roughie the 13-NAUTICAL LAY OF THE DAY: Race 9: 7-ROCK FOR THE LADIES at around $4.60 We made this the Lay of the Day last start and it did win, but we weren’t really that interested in betting in an All Greys Race to begin with. That was a nice win, but this race is much, much harder and there are plenty of in form, fit country horses going around in this. Strange they dodged the greys race for this one when they are worth the same, but guess they thought he wanted the mile. In winning form, but in much weaker races and not interested as favourite in this race. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. EARLY QUAD: Races 2,3,4,5: 4,6,9 / 1,4,9 / 1,5,6,8,10,19 / 1 x $5 = 9.3% We have been going best in the early races this spring, so let’s try and snare an Early Quad which is on Races 2,3,4,5. Take our three selections in the first two legs, and hope the favourites don’t win and if we get a $10 winner somewhere, the dividend will start to open up. Go as wide as you can in the 3rd leg down the straight and hope for a result, and come home one out on our Best Win bet Race 5: 1-RAGNAAR in the last leg. With big fields, it just takes a few results away from the favourites and the dividend hits $2,000+. |
| The Tips: Race 1: 9-CHAMPAGNE COCKTAIL, 5-FINDA FITTER FILLY, 11-TRICKY AFFAIR Race 2: 6-FIREHOUSE ROCK, 9-BERISHA, 4-LUCKY PADDY Race 3: 4-QUICKSILVER LASS, 1-SLATE ON EDGE, 9-HARBOUR GREY Race 4: 6-SECRET AGENDA, 19-LITTLE INDIAN, 10-ZARA BAY, Race 5: 1-RAGNAAR, 2-LOYALTY MAN, 12-BENGAL CAT Race 6: 13-TUDOR, 3-UNAMIOUSLY, 12-CASHED Race 7: 6-I LOVE IT, 2-LUMOSTY, 4-MISS PROMISCUITY Race 8: 2-JAMEKA, 3-SACRED EYE, 6-DAWNIE PERFECT Race 9: 6-SADAQA, 3-BURNING FRONT, 8-LORD ATHENAEUM |
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| RACE 8: VRC OAKS 2500M GROUP 1 3YO F |
| Tips: 2-JAMEKA 3-SACRED EYE 6-DAWNIE PERFECT |
| Others: 4 Pace: SLOW Leaders: 9-RITZY Handy: 2-JAMEKA, 4-AMBIENCE, 8-MUZYKA Back: 1-PASADENA GIRL, 5-HONESTA, 6-DAWNIE PERFECT, 7-THE GREY FLASH, 10-ZARABEEL, 11-DULVERTON, 12-PRINCESS ARIA Chances: 2-JAMEKA looks to be a real solid staying type and the win at MV in the Vase against the boys was sensational when she railed and chased really hard after one that had kicked clear and gone for home. Form stacks up really well too through the Derby winner. She has been super consistent this time in, racing wide at MV 1st up, sticking on well on speed 2nd up, and working home really well late 3rd up. Only missed the place once now in 8 career starts. Big plus with her is that she can race handy and she will probably be a few lengths ahead of her main rival the (3) when they turn. Looks a real staying type and think you need to pay attention to that last start win – it was seriously good. Top pick. 3-SACRED EYE is one of the main chances and another who did well to beat home the boys last start at Caulfield. That was a very impressive win and she won with a bit of class about her, coming out and chasing them down. Still in her first preparation and normally you would want them to be a bit more mature coming into this race, but last year’s winner was the same. Only the 4 starts and yet to finish further back than 2nd. She has been doing everything right this spring and strong chance in this. Only thing we would say is that the winner of this race normally comes from the Wakeful, and she has had almost 3 weeks between runs here – the form lines may change now we have the Caulfield Classic, but it is worth noting anyway. Note international jockey goes on here, which is a strange move. She will be back in the field, so just listen for riding instructions and see how that bloody Flemington track is racing. Will be giving her main rival a head start in the run – and she looks a solid staying type. Strong chance. 4-AMBIENCE was really good wining the Wakeful on Saturday and more often than not the winner of the Wakeful goes onto win this race. In fact, normally most of the field is the same too – so it is pretty much the same race, just run 5 days later. Another who has never missed a place in 6 career starts. Thought she was outstayed by the (6) at Caulfield and she may have been advantaged the way the track was playing here on Saturday as she got the perfect sit on speed and nothing could run on out wide – so that might flatter the form a little bit. But she did come out and put the race beyond doubt very quickly. Drawn out a little and think they will want go forward here considering how the track is racing. Chance, but just get the feeling those who have been racing against the males are probably going a bit better. 6-DAWNIE PERFECT looks a real genuine staying type and she broke her maiden status with a quality staying win down the middle of the track at Caulfield – and the track was favouring on pacers that day. She was well beaten by the (4) here on Saturday – but just be wary about how the track was racing that day – she loomed at the top of the straight and stuck on pretty well, but the runners on were just not figuring. That run may be a lot better than it looks on paper. Wet track may be a bit of an issue with her. She looks a real staying type and a tough 2500M will suit here. A lot depends on how the track is racing, suspect she is the best stayer in the field – but the others have more class, so depends what sort of race we get. Cassidy looking to retire on a feature race win here. Think the run on Saturday is better than it looks and she is a decent chance here. Chance. Place: 1-PASADENA GIRL was a little super star in her 2YO season, knocking them off at big odds at her first start down the straight and then going on to win 3 of her first 4 starts (and being unlucky in the other run). She has been racing really consistently this time in too – but been 2-3 lengths off them in every start. Her first start back this time in was the best, she zoomed late with weight and it looked like she would go on her winning way this spring, but reckon her form since has been a little disappointing. She has been running on each time – but been safely held by 2-3 runners. Actually each of her runs have been largely identical, she works home late once the race is already over and you think you should get on next time – but she does the same thing again. It could be that she is just looking for more distance – or it could be that the others have improved more over the break and have her measure these days. We suspect it is the later. Guess she hasn’t been beaten that far so you shouldn’t write her off entirely and if she returned to her best form she would probably beat these. Not convinced she stays – but you often don’t need to stay to win this race anyways. Can’t see her doing any better than a place though. Place. 5-HONESTA hasn’t raced since Caulfield Cup day and normally the winner of this race does come through the Wakeful on the Saturday. She has had a pretty long preparation – 7 starts this time in. She was right in the mix against the (4) and the (6) at Caulfield. She has drawn out and does normally settle back in the run, so again watch how the track is playing here. Fit and in form against these, but again prefer to be on those who have been beating the males in the lead up runs. Place. 8-MUZYKA is another who looks a real solid staying type, and she was impressive winning by 5lengths over 2000M in her maiden 2 starts back. Good run to place here on Saturday and it is the Wakeful form that normally holds up going into this race. She did come along the rails there which was the best going and followed the winner into the race, but she chased hard once presented with the clear run. Drawn barrier 1 and suspect they might use that and race her a lot closer today and she will stick on pretty well in the straight. Not sure she has the class to beat the top few in betting, but solid place chance. Place. 9-RITZY has been racing very consistently through the weaker grades and looked the winner 2 starts back at Ballarat till a 100-1 shot came out and run her down. She ended up at the back of the field here in the Wakeful, which isn’t her normal racing pattern and she worked home OK to the line out wide which was not the place to be. Normally she races on speed and suspect she is the leader in this. Win strike rate isn’t the best, but she is consistently around the money, and should go forward here and probably didn’t have much chance the way the track was racing on Saturday. Even though she is at long, long odds she is probably a rough place chance here, sticking on, on speed. Place. Sacking: 7-THE GREY FLASH has only the one win from 8 starts and a lot of the others here have much better strike rates. Fitter for the 4 runs in, but she has been well covered by some of these her last two starts. She found a bit of trouble early on in the straight here on Saturday, but thought she had every chance after that and was well held. Hard to see her improving enough in 5 days to turn those margins around. No 10-ZARABEEL is a really staying type but seems to be wanting about 4000M, and just keeps plugging away late at the end of the race. Still a maiden and up against plenty of classy winners in this. Had a long preparation with 6 starts this time in – and she has been the best finisher her last 2 races, so will probably be the best suited out to the 2500M here today. Guess you can make a case for her, if it turned out to be a true staying contest, but doubt that will happen in a small field with not much speed. Guess she is probably some rough chance, but prefer to be on those who are actually getting into the finish. No. 11-DULVERTON has had only the 4 career starts but does at least represent a new form line to these. Her run in the Geelong Classic was good when she raced a bit all over the place in the straight but hit the line strongly. The form from that race didn’t really hold up in the Derby on Saturday though. Likely to drop well back here and will be giving some classy runners a decent hard start going into the straight. Might run on OK, but think she is well held in this. No 12-PRINCESS ARIA has the obligatory Princess/Diamond name to make her on Oaks Day favourite. 8 starts – and yet to run a place is hardly an enticing statistic. Wasn’t beaten that far at Caulfield against these and then probably had next to no chance here on Saturday in the Wakeful when she where she was out the back of the field and wide and that just wasn’t the racing pattern. Hard to see her being competitive here though against these. No Summary: Usually the Oaks is a pretty straight forward race and there are no 100-1 dream story winners. The Wakeful form is just about always the way to go, and often most of the field is the same too and the race is only run a few days later so not much changes. However, this year is a bit different in that we have two fillies the (2) and the (3) who have been going really well and beating the boys in the lead up runs – and think that form is going to be a lot better. There doesn’t seem to be much speed here at all, with just the 9-RITZY leading and the 2-JAMEKA, 4-AMBIENCE sitting off her, and be wary of how many here are going to be giving some class ones at the front of the field a head start. So think we want a classy Oaks winners, rather than a staying Oaks winner. The 2-JAMEKA is a clear top pick here, the last win at MV was sensational when she came out and chased hard against one that had kicked clear. Plus she will sit a lot closer in the run than her main rival and think she box seats and just dashes away from them here. The 3-SACRED EYE the obvious danger, she has been beating the boys and is a strong finisher, but will be back in the field and will need the track to be playing fairly (which is a bit much to ask for Cup week , isn’t it?). The value runner might be the 6-DAWNIE PERFECT, she is a solid staying type and she was in the wrong part of the track on Saturday so might improve today over further if the runners on have a chance. Actually keen to bet and think the top pick is close to a good thing here at around $4. One to risk: 1-PASADENA GIRL Roughie: 9-RITZY The Key: Beating the males is good form |
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