Yet another shuffle of the racing program for Cox Plate weekend and this program now features the Moonee Valley Cup. Bit of rain around in the morning, but just enough to keep the track in good order and a clear night ahead. Rail TRUE normally means every horse can have its chance but as always at MV be on the watch out for an on-speed advantage and be ready to take advantage if that is the case.
For Spring Campaign 2024 we will be posting tips Saturday morning around 10am (earlier if time allows). Feature race preview at the bottom of this post.
BEST WIN: Race 7: 10-POSITIVITY $7 WIN, QUINELLA 10#3,5 x $3 = 150%
This one has been racing really well this time in, jumping and racing on-speed and fighting out her races and then was taken back last start at Flemington when she drew an outside barrier and still worked to the line well, but that’s simply not her racing pattern. She can sit just behind the speed here tonight and looks perfectly place to win here, just slight query after being injury scratched last week in the Caulfield Cup. If everything is right she should pretty much win this at around $6 and save on a quinella with the main dangers the 5-FRANCESCO GUARDI, 3-SERPENTINE.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 1: 5-PARIAH PERAL $4 EW
Consistent on-speed type who ran well first-up when just beaten and should be able to go forward and get the run of the race here at around $8 in a race with not much depth away from the top two in the market.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 9-RICK’S CAFÉ $4 EW, QUINELLA 1,6,9,13 x $3 = 50%
She has been racing really well and deserves a win, right in the finish last two starts which have both been sit – sprint races and she is much better off in a truly run race as a strong finishing back marker. Big field will hopefully ensure a genuine tempo here and as long as she doesn’t settle too far back she should be within pouncing distance on the turn. Back each way at around $14 and box up a value quinella with the 13-MISTERKIPCHOGE who is racing really well and the one to beat in this, the roughie 1-GOLD WOLF who should be ready to do something third-up, but may drop back and the 6-KENTUCKY NICK who should be up on the speed from an outside barrier.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 5-MAGNASPIN $5 EW
Pretty consistent when he strikes form and he loves sitting on-speed on dry track around MV and gets all the ticks tonight. Good first-up and then attempted a Group 1 feature mile last start, so this is a big drop back in class and likely to get the perfect on-speed run here behind a few possible leaders in this race. Each way at around $10.
BEST ROUGH: Race 2: 8-JOLTIN’ JOE $2 WIN, $4 PLACE
This is a sprint final, but a pretty dreadful race with 7 of the 8 starters coming though the same two races last start at Sale and Hamilton. This one is actually better than most of these, just also a bit older with a lot more starts, and has run some pretty good races here, just he needs a firm track and to be able to run on. Small field and decent speed should suit and the 1000M last start was too short for him. Rough at $25 which is over the odds.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 4: 4-FORCE RED at around $2.60
Nothing against this one, just in a large-ish field of sprinting 3YOs, a lot of whom seem to go along OK he seems to be poor odds. Winner of this race will probably be the one who gets the most luck in a mad sprint, so prefer to back something at value.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a deposit for a MV apartment.
EARLY QUAD: Races 1,2,3,4 – 3,5,8 / 4,5,7,8 / 10 / 2,5,9,10,12 x $5 = 8.33%
Hard to find much value around tonight, so lets take a cheeky Early Quad and anchor the Race 3: 10-HEAVENLY EAGLE going away from the two favourites in the third leg, who ran on well last start when he got too far back in the run. Plenty of value in the second and last legs in even fields so if we can find something away from the obvious in the third leg we might get a decent dividend.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 5,6,7,8 - 1,6,9,12,13 / 4,5,10/ 5,10 / 4,6,10,12,16 x $20 = 13.33%
Actually looks a fairly open quaddie for a MV night meetings with a very open first leg, some obvious chances in the second leg, confident third leg to go narrow in and just open it up in the last leg and hope for a result.
Feature Race Preview: RACE 7: MOONEE VALLEY CUP
For the Moonee Valley Cup, always pay close attention to the weight scale, its not WFA and its not a handicap, its set weights with penalties and invariably there is an extremely well weighted horse. There seems to be a lot of speed here for a staying race, the 2-JUST FINE likes to lead but suspect the 3-SERPENTINE will challenge it or try and go forward and long way out and 7-OKITA SOUSHI raced well leading last start. Which gives the perfect trail into the race for the 10-POSITIVITY who will be sitting handy behind them.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-SHARP’N’SMART has been bouncing back between Australia and NZ and has stand-out 3YO classic staying form when he was only just outstayed in the VRC Derby. Didn’t really go on with it in his 4YO season (it happens), and building a staying preparation this time in and gets out to a suitable distance today. Was wide and ridden along a long way out in the Turnbull. Dropping in class, return to a dry track here and out to distance may see improvement, but hard to get enthused about a horse struggling for form carrying top weight. No
2-JUST FINE has shown class in previous preparations and was showing great potential leading in Sydney victories and started favourite in the Caulfield Stakes last year when disappointed. Seemed to be struggling for form since then, but then came out and in a magnificent ride lead all the way to win the Bart Cummings when they did let him dictate the speed. Was probably a distance query over 2500M before that win, and note that he was stopping on the line there. Leader again here, and may strike an on-speed track, but probably gets pressured by the (3) which might bring him undone, so would probably need a perfect ride again to win this. Chance.
3-SERPENTINE is a tough on-speed stayer who doesn’t win out of turn but makes the staying races pretty interesting. Firm track suits and building into his staying preparation this time in, faded badly in the Metropolitan but he is better than that. Likely leader here and best form is good enough for this. Chance
4-MANZOICE is a tough staying type who won the VRC Derby in 2022, but hasn’t won in 14 starts since then. Building into his staying preparation this time in and seems to be going better this preparation than previous ones. Probably a lot of improvement to come off last run with the rise in distance, but also likely to drop back here and wins have all been on wet tracks. Prefer to wait till he strikes form. No
5-FRANCESCO GUARDI is well in the market here off fair form at best this time in. Another building into his preparation and suited out to the staying 2500M today. Worked home well in the Naturalism which was dominated on-speed and plugged away well on the inside in the Turnbull in a strong form race. Won this race two years ago on a very heavy track. Likely to drop back and be chasing a long way out, but will get the speed on here and he is good enough to win this on best form, just not sure the betting market is much value here. Chance.
6-BRAYDEN STAR usually plugs away in the weaker country staying races, but ran on well in the Herbert Power which is strong enough form for this. Was really strong to the line there and should have improvement to come off that run. Normally has been kept to 2000M, but last two starts past that distance have been a 2nd in a Bendigo Cup and a 4th in a Herbert Power. Dry track suits. Likely to drop back along inside here so might need luck and maybe a query in a true staying contest, but looks value on recent form. Rough.
7-OKITA SOUSHI is an import who came over for the Cups last year and did little and had shown little this time until the long shot placing in the Herbert Power last start. Set the speed there and on-pacers were strongly advantaged that day. Probably goes forward again tonight, but is going to be contested in the lead here. Might improve again off the last run so maybe watch the betting market, but probably prefer to watch and see how the form lines up.
8-SAINT GEORGE had the international staying spruikers all excited off an unlucky run first-up, but has had every chance in two runs since then and hasn’t really shown much. Another who might peak with a few runs this time in and out to a suitable distance with race fitness. Market will be best guide in a strong staying stable but would want to see him produce before getting on.
9-HAARACINE is lightly raced and one on the way up, and impressive effort to win first-up at Flemington. Was then set a mammoth task to step up 900m in distance into the Herbert Power so can forgive that run. Looks to have a lot of potential, but carrying equal weights with many of these who have been racing in much stronger staying contests. Prefer to risk today.
10-POSITIVITY has been racing in great form this time in, coming off strong 3YO classic staying form. Jumped on speed and right in the finish first two starts this time in, and then ridden back from outside barrier didn’t suit and worked to the line really well in the Bart Cummings on unsuitable wet ground. Was keen on her in the Caulfield Cup last week when scratched with a minor issue and note the synthetic hoof filler notification. If she is right to go she is the one to beat here and looks ridiculously well weighted on 52.5 kgs, getting 2.5kgs off the rest of the field with equal or better form. Can settle handy behind the ample speed here too and get the perfect run into the race. Top chance.
Summary: Looks a pretty even staying field and we should get a genuine tempo here. On weights and on form the 10-POSITIVITY looks an absolute stand out bet here, ridden back last start meant she had no chance and looks to get the perfect sit behind the speed tonight. Only query is coming off the injury set back so be interesting to see how the betting market reacts, but she should be clear favourite in this field without that. 5-FRANCESCO GUARDI the main danger, hard to tell exactly how he is going but could step up tonight out to a suitable distance. 3-SERPENTINE the best of the on-speed horses in a very even betting market. Happy to have a confident win bet on the top pick who looks extremely well weighted here, just that niggly query over the setback stopping us going all-in on this one.
Race 1: 5-PARIAH PERAL, 3-WRITTEN IN CODE, 8-DIVINE THOUGHTS
Race 2: 8-JOLTIN’ JOE, 5-SHE’S BULLETPROOF, 4-MAWALLOCK
Race 3: 10-HEAVENLY EAGLE, 1-VERDAD, 6-WAIMARIE
Race 4: 9-EARTH GOD, 10-RICH DOTTIE, 2-IMMORTAL STAR
Race 5: 9-RICK’S CAFÉ, 13-MISTERKIPCHOGE, 1-GOLD WOLF
Race 6: 5-MAGNASPIN, 10-RUNNING BY, 4-RUN HARRY RUN
Race 7: 10-POSITIVITY, 5-FRANCESCO GUARDI, 3-SERPENTINE
Race 8: 10-FISSION, 6-MIDNIGHT DEVIL, 4-BOONIE
