Tips, feature race preview and suggested bets for Moir Stakes at Moonee Valley 07/09/2024
Spring Carnival feature race re-shuffle sees the running of the Moir Stakes this week instead of the usual Feehan Stakes, and it seems to have worked well with a really strong field in the feature race. Rail goes back into the TRUE position from OUT 5M and we have a fairly firm track with a sunny day ahead with little wind. Suspect the inside 5M will be the best going here and it may be a plus to be on-speed and up on pace. From a punting point of view, it is the normal smaller fields and short-priced favourites at Moonee Valley so not a great day for value results.
For Spring Campaign 2024 we will be posting tips Saturday morning around 10am (earlier if time allows). Feature race preview at the bottom of this post.
BEST WIN: Race 7: 8-STOLI BOLLI $5 WIN
Probably not much between most of these, but this one seems to be one on the way up. Really like the way he hit the line here last start and probably has a lot of improvement to come. Can go forward here and lead or sit handy in a race where most of the field is resuming and hoping he can kick clear on the turn here. Back straight out at around $6.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 9-REGAL ZEUS $4 EW
Consistent on-speed horse who has been right in the finish here last two starts and comes into this race with a decent weight drop. Hard fit and will get perfect run into the race at the right time here sitting handy and looks a safe each way bet at around $6.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 2-SAVANNAH CLOUD $4 EW
Super consistent type who seems to be consistently under-rated. Has placed an astounding 25/34 starts and still just about always goes around at each-way odds. Yet to miss a place in 7 starts first-up, given a spell after form tapered off last campaign. Prefers a firm track, will jump and sit handy today in a small field and always presents and gives himself every chance. Each way at around $8.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 1-ATTRITION $4 EW
Hit and miss horse who has a stack of ability but hasn’t delivered as often as he should have. Seems to have dropped back a grade this spring after contesting all the features last spring and worth noting he ran second in the Feehan on this day last year beaten only by PINSTRIPED. Flashed home really strongly first-up over in Adelaide and probably has a class edge on these here today. He would probably win the Feehan if it was on today. Like he is drawn out, he has a sharp sprint and needs to pounce on them off the turn. Looks a good set up today, back each way at around $8.
QUINELLA: Race 2: 13-THE MARG FACTOR, 6-OUR EMPRESS ZOE, 7-LIEVORE x $6 = 200%
Probably only value today is in the box quinellas, let’s box up the three on-speed mares here, the 13-THE MARG FACTOR who should jump and lead and might be hard to run down with fitness improvement off two runs in this time, and the consistent on-speed 6-OUR EMPRESS ZOE, 7-LIEVORE.
QUINELLA: Race 10: 10-PIASTRI, 1-SUPERAZI, 4-WHY WORRY x $6 = 200%
Another box quinella in the last, with the 10-PIASTRI who is flying at the moment, the 1-SUPERAZI who was strong late here last start and looks value and the on-speed 4-WHY WORRY who has been racing well in these sort of races.
ROUGH: Race 4: 14-RICK’S CAFE $2 EW
Hard to find any roughies today, but this mare was strong here late last start and should be suited up in distance with a strong tempo here to string the field out a bit. Jockey Hefel knows how to ride her and she should be weaving through the field late strongly at around $25.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 10: 6-VERDAD at around $4
Struggling to understand why this one is favourite in the last race. Showed a lot of ability as a 3YO, but that was a Derby preparation and he has never raced under 1300M. Drawn barrier 1 over a MV 1200M sprint almost certainly to be dropping well back along the inside and will need luck and prefer to risk today.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a deposit for a trackside MV apartment.
$5 ALL UP
PLACE Race 2: 6-OUR EMPRESS ZOE
PLACE Race 3: 9-REGAL ZEUS
PLACE Race 7: 8-STOLI BOLLI
PLACE Race 10: 1-SUPERAZI
Field sizes look about right for an all up place multi today, focus on the value on-speed horses early in the day and the Race 10: 1-SUPERAZI looks a value chance to come home on in the last. Looking at around $250 for a $5 outlay.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 7,8,9,10: 2,8 / 1,2,4,7,11 / 6,7,8 / 1,4,10,12 x $20 = 16.66%
Probably not a huge quaddie today, but let’s go narrow in the first leg, hope for a result against the short-priced favourite the 2-PERICLES in the 2nd leg and come home on the selections in the last two legs.
Feature Race Preview:
Quality field for the feature Moir Stakes and MV 1000M really is a specialist distance and you want to follow the speedy jump and run types. Speed looks fast with the 6-ESTRIELLA, 8-LADY OF CAMELOT both jumping and going forward, but there looks to be a gap back to the rest of them so good chance for something like the 7-COLEMAN and 4-CABALLUS to go forward and get the perfect run behind the speed. Good chance the two leaders will kick away on the turn here though.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-I WISH I WIN is an Everest bound class sprinting mare with a devastating finishing sprint when ridden correctly. Has class on these and proven time and time again at the top level. 1000M is on the short side though and she has never been to MV before and likely to be giving these a start coming up to the home turn. Class says she can win, you would want to see them running on and winning OK. Just concerned one of the on-speed horses jumps and runs or kicks before the turn and wins this, but class can often over-come these obstacles. Wary.
2-MORINGTON GLORY is in flying form this time in and well suited on a firm track. Unbeaten at 3 starts this track and distance. Not sure of the strength of what he has beaten last two runs though and this is a big step up today. Can never underestimate fit and in-form but think he faces a task today though. Place.
3-JOHNNY ROCKER has been a little under-estimated and has put in some slashing runs in feature sprint races. Drop back strong finishing type who will probably be hitting the line well here. Place
4-CABALLUS is a consistent on-speed type and actually like where he settles in the run here, he is probably the one who goes forward and settles third behind the two leaders with the perfect run into the race. Should be ready to do something today first-up coming off two smart trials and probably has considerable career improvement to come. Looks best roughe in the race and some blow-out chance.
5-CHAIN OF LIGHTNING is a top class sprinting mare on her day, but she has had patches where she has lost form, mainly on firm tracks. 1000M might be a little on the short side for her, and she can be slowly away sometimes, but if she jumps and settles handy you know you are in trouble if you have backed against her. Not sure this is the right race for her, but she can win this on her best form.
6-ESTRIELLA had a break-out dominant Autumn campaign as a 3YO and this looks the perfect kick-off into the spring. She has the speed to jump and lead or sit second and control the race and can quickly put a gap on the field. Firm track suits, barrier trial coming into this and looks to be a top class sprinter in the making. One to beat at around $4.
7-COLEMAN is one of a group of 3YOs at the bottom of the weights here and they are all strong winning chances. Consistent at the top level as a 2YO and has the strong smart sprint to win this race. Would be good to see them go forward here and sit just behind the leaders, given the right run into the race he has the turn of foot to win this. Chance.
8-LADY OF CAMELOT was a smart sprinting 2YO and can probably lead here against the rails and might be hard to run down. Huge run in the Blue Diamond when pressured up front all the way and otherwise known as “The Filly” for her Waterhouse Golden Slipper win. Looks a likely jump and run type and if the track is favouring those on-speed she is going to be very hard to beat.
9-HAYASUGI was constantly under-rated as a 2YO and kept winning at good odds, and jockey Kah was constantly impressed with what she could do. She is a tough, gritty type who likes a fast speed and a tough slog to the finish. Likely to be giving them a start here and just wonder if the MV 1000M suits her grinding style, but wary to underestimate her. Rough.
Summary:
Great sprint field and really interesting race early in the spring. Keep an eye on the track conditions here to see how advantageous it is to be up on-speed, but good chance the two leaders here the 6-ESTRIELLA, 8-LADY OF CAMELOT jump and run and fight this race out – if one of them gets a clear lead they will be hard to run down. The 6-ESTRIELLA looks a star in the making and can probably drop them on the home turn here, the 8-LADY OF CAMELOT hard to beat with no weight and best value runner is the 7-COLEMAN who has a very smart sprint given the right run into the roughie. Best roughie is the 4-CABALLUS for first fours. Even betting race in a quality field so good odds about a few good horses here.
Race 1: 1-EVAPORATE, 4-COCOBILL, 5-STYLISH SECRET
Race 2: 13-THE MARG FACTOR, 6-OUR EMPRESS ZOE, 7-LIEVORE
Race 3: 9-REGAL ZEUS, 10-NAILS MURHPY, 1-ARAMCO
Race 4: 2-LAUDING, 14-RICK’S CAFE, 13-GENTIAN BLUE
Race 5: 2-SAVANNAH CLOUD, 4-WHO DARES, 3-ARKANSAW KID
Race 6: 3-SILMARILLION, 8-SASSY JENNI, 4-SATIN STILETTO
Race 7: 8-STOLI BOLLI, 2-EPIMELES, 3-PUBLIC ATTENTION
Race 8: 1-ATTRITION, 2-PERICLES, 7-POUNDING
Race 9: 6-ESTRIELLA, 8-LADY OF CAMELOT, 7-COLEMAN
Race 10: 10-PIASTRI, 1-SUPERAZI, 4-WHY WORRY
