There are showers forecast for Friday night, it is still not quite clear when they are coming through though and the radar looks fairly clear at the moment, so it might just be cloudy with a few light showers. Track is probably firm enough to assist a few tonight who have been struggling on wet tracks. This meeting often favours those on-speed, so watch out for leaders, particularly in the JRA Cup where the small field of stayers means a leader can often pinch the race.
The fields have come up fairly strong tonight, but as always with these MV meetings we have a lot of short priced favourites who look hard to beat, so it’s difficult to find decent each way bets and have to move to quinellas for some more value. As a result a lot of the suggested bets are roughies who look over the odds with too much focus at the top end of the betting market.
For the feature Moir Stakes, these feature sprints at MV night meetings are always great betting races, but you always need luck to get the run at the right time and tend to want to avoid those from inside barriers who drop back in the run. There are a few who can go forward here, but suspect the 2-GENERATION gets the rail, and the 5-MALKOVICH, 4-ZOUSTYLE sitting next and the 3-ROTHFIRE behind them.
Runner by runner comments:
1-INFERNO has put in some great races here as a strong finishing sprinter, but needs the speed on and always needs luck and an even racing pattern, so watch for any leader bias tonight. Drawn middle suits and first up run was pretty good and is a good rough chance here at $20.
2-PAULELE is the Sydney Goldolphin runner who has excellent career stats, but normally races over slightly further, so question might be if he drops further back tonight over the 1000M here. Probably has best form in the race, not sure where he gets to in the run tonight and despite being well supported and a definite winning chance will probably look for more value with others.
3-ROTHFIRE jumped back to best form last start and has a sensational win strike rate. Drawn well to sit handy here and should get run of the race, did get run of the race last start as well. Definitely a winning chance but maybe just prefer those around him from last start, but definitely keep safe.
4-ZOUSTYLE will go forward here and probably sit outside the lead from a wide barrier. Last run was excellent when fought head to head with the short priced favourite 3YO and beat him off, only to be run down late. Going to get a better run here tonight and think is a strong chance.
5-MALKOVICH is speedy and a 1000M specialist, but best form is on wetter tracks than this and maybe want to see again this time in before getting on.
6-GENERATION was super tough 1st up when battled head to head with a speedy one, fought it off, but set the race up for one finishing hard late who just got him. Drier track suits, and good chance they can cross and get the rails and lead here if they want, and if the other on-pacers just stay off a bit he is going to be very hard to run down.
7-EXTREMELY LUCKY is the flying strong finisher from Adelaide who just didn’t seem to be in the right race last start when was initially a short priced favourite but drifted as betting continued. Bigger field and more speed on here suits, as does the outside barrier, actually probably looks value at $16 for a horse that has started $4 or shorter his last five runs. Has a stack of talent, but would need a fast speed here and a racing pattern where they could run on OK, so will we get that? You still just get the feeling that 1000M and MV really isn’t suitable, but has the ability to win if race run to suit and think the odds are good tonight if you want to follow him.
8-SEPTEMBER RUN is a Group 1 sprinter who was all the rage a few seasons ago, but returned to form with a Group 1 win here in March. 1000M likely to be too short here, and normally takes a run or two each time in to find form.
9-BELLA NIPOTINA was often just a reliable place getter, but has really gone up a notch last preparation and was quite dominant swooping into the race here last start. Probably prefer a slightly wetter track to show her best and the 1000M is just a tad on the short side with her, but she is just racing so well she is hard to leave out. May just drop back a little here from the outside barrier, but looks good odds at $15 considering her form.
10-ISOTOPE has great QLD form, but best form is over longer and she has been a bit cold on form recently so wait till she returns to her true form.
11-MILEVA is a good 1000-1100M horse but not at this level and drawn wide means will struggle to go forward without being used up in the run.
12-COOLANGATTA is the hyped 3YO who went forward and burst here last start at very short odds, but wasn’t beaten that far at the end. Huge weight advantage tonight and always wary of sprinting 3YOs, but surely the inside barrier has to be an issue here? Barrier 1 for a horse that is best ridden swopping around them into the finish, and can’t see them going forward again after it didn’t work last start. Be interesting to see the betting market but think want to risk on barrier alone at the moment.
Summary
These are always really good betting races and we are keen on the 6-GENERATION leading here on the rails on a firmish track, keener if we end up with a leader’s bias and chances will largely depend how much pressure up front there is. Don’t think we have seen the best of him and he is up to winning this off an excellent 1st up run. Main danger is the 9-BELLA NIPOTINA who actually seems to be improving and getting better with racing and she has been marking up some seriously good wins and suspect the other leader the 4-ZOUSTYLE is going to run a race tonight with not as much pressure up front. Best roughie is the 1-INFERNO. Keen to bet here and will probably back all three selections accordingly seeing they are all around the $10 mark.
BEST BET: Race 4: 4-TIJUANA
QUINELLA Race 4: 4-TIJUANA#5-HE’S HEAVEN, 6-RINGMASTER x $5 = 250%
Great run in a very strong form race last start which seems to be the best group of 3YOs going towards the Caulfield Guineas. Dropped back there in a big field, but normally races on speed and should be able to go forward here tonight and did win over 1400M impressively as a 2YO leading all the way at Flemington. Looks the one to beat here at $2.50, but he is too short to have a serious bet on so let’s try for a quinella instead with the consistent 5-HE’S HEAVEN on-speed and the Sydney visitor 6-RINGMASTER who didn’t get much room early in the straight last start.
BEST WIN: Race 2: 7-ENGLISH RIVIERIA $5 WIN
Speedy filly who led into a strong headwind down the straight last start at Flemington and only just faded late and grabbed by a group of swoopers. Was a huge run. Early 2YO form was pretty good and ran a great race leading in a Blue Diamond. Track staying firm is a plus and good chance she will jump and run and lead here and will be hard to beat if there is any leader bias. Back straight out at around $4 and try again with a First Four in the Wonder bet below for an extra collect.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 7-ROSE QUARTZ $4 EW
Sprinter who looks to have some potential and has been scratched from wet tracks so firmer surface tonight should suit. These 955M races they always go quickly and important to get a run at the right time and looks perfectly draw in barrier 8 to swoop around them late. Back each way at around $5 in a competitive field, and note we are also having something on roughie 10-SHAM I AM in this race.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 8-DESERT ICON
QUINELLA: Race 6: 8-DESERT ICON#11-PRIX DE TURN, 9-AURORA’S SYMPHONY x $4 = 200%
The JRA Cup is often won by the leader, as often there is a small field of drop back stayers going around and little pressure up front. This looks the same case this year, with this one being the likely leader and unlikely to get much pressure at all. Odds of $3.40 probably a bit short though so anchor a quinella with the 11-PRIX DE TURN who looks ready to win now third up, and the value runner here might be the 9-AURORA’S SYMPHONY going forward.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 6-GENERATION $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 7: 6-GENERATION#1,3,4,9 x $4 = 100%
These feature MV sprints are always great betting races and probably the only field of the night where we can have a decent each way bet. This one has a fair bit of talent, and the track staying drier is a big plus. Very speedy, and first up he kicked to the lead and was challenged all the way by another leader who he shook off, but the race was set up for something running on late and he was only just got nabbed. Was a super tough effort and drawn barrier 2 here should be able to cross and lead and might be too quick for them, but will have to sustain pressure again. Looks a decent each way bet at around $10 and a good value quinella here anchoring the strong finishing 1-THE INFERNO, the in-form 3-ROTHFIRE, the 4-ZOUSTYLE who will also go forward and also looks good value and the ever reliable 9-BELLA NIPOTINA who seems to be getter better as she gets older.
BEST ROUGH: Race 1: 3-LIBERTY STEPS $2 EW
QUINELLA: Race 1: 1,3,4,7 boxed x $3 = 100%
Showed a bit of ability as a 2YO with a really strong finishing burst and forgive the QLD campaign. Drawn wide actually suits as he will drop back and show a turn of foot running around them, will need the speed on and for a fair racing track but does look over the odds at $35 for a little roughie to kick off the night. Box up a quinella with the man chances the 1-EL PADRINO on-speed and the 7-THREE RINGS running on late and there is another value runner here in the 4-LINCOLN SQAURE leading.
BEST ROUGH: Race 5: 10-SHAM I AM $2 EW
Extremely underrated sprinter who does need the track to stay firm, but that looks the case at the moment. Won two races in a row here back at the end of 2020 at $51 and $19 leading all the way over 1200M and placed here this track and distance at $41 in October last year. Kicked clear and ran a huge race 1st up last time in down the Flemington straight at $31. Extraordinary record of getting into the finish at long odds and very under-rated when allowed to lead on dry ground. First-up tonight, lots of speed and the 955M probably a little short, but drawn wide means he can roll on-speed out wide and good chance he will run a race again tonight at $61 and definitely worth a small each way bet.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 1: 2-SHALAMAN at around $4
Tough night for Lay Of The Day with lots of short priced favourites going around and most will probably go close to winning. Let’s get this out of the way early in the first race where this one won here last start leading all the way (and we were on), but only just lasted and was stopping badly at the end of the race. Form from that race has held up, but suspect there is going to be more pressure tonight and that may bring him undone late and may prefer a wet track.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a deposit for a Moonee Valley racecourse apartment
FIRST FOUR: Race 2: 7-ENGLISH RIVIERIA / 3,8 / 2,3,6,8 / FIELD x $5 = 11.9%
We are pretty keen on the classy 7-ENGLISH RIVIERIA to lead and be hard to run down here and the First Four may pay OK in an even betting racing. The value dangers are the 3-LADY LAGUNA who got used up pressing to go forward here last start and still fought on well, and the under rated 8-PRAIRIE FLOWER who will be swopping around them late, so let’s try for a value First four collect and hope something silly runs 4th.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 5,6,7,8: 4,5,7,8,10 / 8,11 / 1,2,3,4,6,9 / 1,2,10 x $20 = 11.11%
Not sure the quaddie pays tonight with really only three chances in the last leg 10-LADY OF HONOUR, 1-KISSONALLFORCHEEKS, 2-FOXY FRIDA and you can confidently narrow down the second leg to just 8-DESERT ICON, 11-PRIX DE TURN and go wide in the 1st and 3rd legs and hope for an upset.
Race 1: 1-EL PADRINO, 3-LIBERTY STEPS, 7-THREE RINGS
Race 2: 7-ENGLISH RIVIERIA, 3-LADY LAGUNA, 8-PRAIRIE FLOWER
Race 3: 7-SNAPPER, 3-CLEMENCEAU, 5-PIONEER RIVER
Race 4: 4-TIJUANA, 5-HE’S HEAVEN, 6-RINGMASTER
Race 5: 7-ROSE QUARTZ, 8-ASFOORA, 10-SHAM I AM
Race 6: 8-DESERT ICON, 11-PRIX DE TURN, 9-AURORA’S SYMPHONY
Race 7: 6-GENERATION, 9-BELLA NIPOTINA, 4-ZOUSTYLE
Race 8: 10-LADY OF HONOUR, 1-KISSONALLFORCHEEKS, 2-FOXY FRIDA
