Fine drying day on Thursday, there was a bit of rain and wind forecast for Friday night, but it looks like we are going to miss that, so this track might come up firmer than expected with the wind. Often MV night meetings strongly favour those on-speed, especially at this meeting, and suspect that will be the case tonight with the rail OUT 4M, depending on what the wind does.
These feature MV sprints like the Moir Stakes are always pretty much determined by luck in running. They go quickly and you need to be out in clear space and running into the race on the home turn and there are normally plenty of hard luck stories for those dropping back from inside barriers. Tonight the speed will come from the speedy 11-PROFITEER leading, from the 8-BALLISTIC LOVER (inside) and the 9-MISS ALABANIA (wide) with the 2-WILD RULER and 4-PORTLAND SKY getting a good sit behind them. Over half the field here are drop back horses though, so there mightn’t be that much pressure for a sprint race and likely something sitting handy pinches this race.
Going through the field, the 1-TREKKING ran 2nd in this race last year, 2nd in the Manikato and 8th in this race in 2019. Group 1 sprinter, but he does drop back in his races and has drawn inside again (he drew barrier 2 last year but managed to get through on the inside to run into the race). 1000M is on the short side for him, and he will need luck 1st up to get into the finish, but he is proven at this level if the gaps come. The 2-WILD RULER is a Sydney on-pacer who was good 1st up fighting out the finish against a top liner. Good win strike rate and good record this distance and looks a pretty strong chance jumping and getting the rails here. The 3-INFERNO is a class horse from Singapore who the stable totally rave about. He flew past some decent horses with ease here last start over this track and distance. Has to be said that the track pattern was strongly in his favour that day, but it was still very impressive, but he might just need some luck at the right time coming around the turn here. The 4-PORTLAND SKY was under-rated early on in his career but went on to win an Oakleigh Plate and a run 2nd in a William Reid here. Was well covered by the (3) last start, but he will get a great run in clear running here from a middle barrier on-speed and run into the race at the right time, whilst the others are still looking for runs back in the field. Sure to have improvement coming off that run and think he is a good chance in this at each way odds. The 5-SEPTEMEBER RUN is a sensational drop back sprinter down the Flemington straight, so seems curious to be targeting this race. Dropped back and ran on well here last start (was the pattern that day), but really hard to see her getting warm from barrier 1 at the back of the field here around the MV 1000M, something will have pinched the race before she gets out and going.
The 6-SWAT’S THAT is a top level sprinter who is often chasing the (5) around. Have to watch market 1st up as she doesn’t seem to have trialled, so hard to know how forward she is. She is drawn out to run into the race at the right time though, and double the odds of the (5) and would probably prefer to be on this one so think she is value in this field. The 7-BROOKLYN HUSTLE tends to drop back and has been unlucky more than once in these sort of races, funny enough she managed to finally pick up some wins by leaving Melbourne, so maybe she is jinxed when she races here? Recent barrier trial winner so should be forward for this, and outside draw suits her drop back and swooping racing style. She just needs luck when she races here though, so she will probably run on late for a place, but maybe not win. The 8-BALLISTIC LOVER is a Sydney on-speed sprinter who was good winning against lesser grade here last start when she did get the perfect sit into the race. She will jump and sit handy again here and be thereabouts, suspect she might just find one or two a bit better at this level though. The 9-MISS ALBANIA is one we haven’t seen the best of yet and is continuing to work her way through up to this level. Tough win out wide on the wrong side of the track at Flemington and then missed the start here last start when probably should have gone close to winning. Up to a much stronger race here. Drawn to sit wide on-speed here and as long as she goes forward tonight she will probably run a race at odds in this. The 10-SHAQUERO was scratched last weekend, on-speed 3YO who will need to jump and run to hold the rails position here and suspect ends up back on the rails on the inside. Doesn’t seem to be much market interest at the moment so hard to get enthused. The 11-PROFITEER was a top line 2YO who went around favourite in a Golden Slipper, and is ridiculously well weighted at WFA with only 52kgs in this. Super speedy type who can go forward here and lead clearly and really if he lives up to her 2YO season form then he is the one to beat. Market will be the best guide here and suspect he will be very well backed, but you are basically betting on him coming back in as good form as he showed last time in and sometimes they don’t go on with it. So basically he either wins easily, or doesn’t run a place.
These MV feature sprints are always good even betting races and should to be plenty that are backed coming into this race. Just looking at the likely race pattern we are keen to have something each way on the 4-PORTLAND SKY here, should have improvement off the 1st up run and should get a perfect position just behind the speed here and in clear running. Was beaten by a freak performance here in the William Reid and a freak ride, else he looked the clear winner in that race. Looks a value each way bet at around $11 and think he will be in the finish. The lightly weighted 11-PROFITEER as the main danger, see if the market comes for him, but around MV 1000M on a likely leaders track if he gets out to a clear lead he is going to be very hard to run down. Wining chance also to the 2-WILD RULER on-speed, and value in the roughie 6-SWAT’S THAT who looks the wrong odds on her form. Betting plan is probably to have an each way bet on the top pick and a wide trifecta hoping something at odds stick on into the placings.
Decent betting program to keep us entertained on a Friday night in lockdown and we have found quite a few at each way odds as top pics, and think some of these favourites are too short. This is actually a much, much better program to bet on than Sandown tomorrow and we are keen to have a play tonight in competitive races, but need to be versatile in case of a track pattern. Our yearly note of warning that the JRA Cup is often won by the leader, with CAPTAIN COOK (2019), THE TAJ MAHAL (2018), JON SNOW (2017), ESCADO (2015), THE CLEANER (2014), MOURINHO (2013) all leading or settling very close to the speed in the last 10 years.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 4-IMPERIAL LAD $5 EW
Super tough on-speed horse who was beaten by a smart one two starts back and fought on really well after setting a furious speed in front last start. Back in distance, but has placed 9 from 9 at the 1200M. Drawn to go forward and probably sits on the speed, outside the likely leader the lightly weighted short priced favourite the 9-LOMBARDO who is going to be hard to beat. But even though this one has to carry 6kgs more he is tough as they come, and he might be able to over-come the weight difference at around $8.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 4-PORTLAND SKY $5 EW
Barrier and position in running is incredibly important in these MV feature sprint races and this one looks to get the perfect run tonight, sitting out in clear running one back behind the leaders. Means he can run into the race at the right time on the home turn, whilst the backmarkers search for runs and try to get clear. Good MV record. will be improved from the 1st up run and has gone close in these sort of races before and proven at the Group 1 level. Each way at around $12 looks great value in an open race.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 4-FLYING EVELYN $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 4: 4-FLYING EVELYN, 5-LARKSPUR RUN, 8-HER EMPIRE boxed x $3
This one should have won at Flemington when she just had to wait for a run to get clear and came very hard at the winner on the line to just miss. Drawn for clear running tonight and should settle in the first few and be pretty hard to beat at around $7. Nice box quinella with the main danger the 5-LARKSPUR RUN and the roughie 8-HER EMPIRE who should lead on the rails here and might kick on at $30.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 9-SO YOU ASSUME $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 8: 9-SO YOU ASSUME#7,8,12,13 x $2 = 50%
This is a very open Stock Stakes and it is probably not as strong a race as normal. Usually we have one or more solid proven WFA mares going around in this race. Which means there is the chance for something fit and in form to grab a Group 2 race, such as this one. Last two wins have been great leading and winning and likely do to the same tonight, though more confident if the track pattern plays that way as well. Back each way at around $6 and a good horse to anchor in the quinella to be in the finish with the classy improving 12-BUTTER CHICKEN, the strong finishing 7-RIPPER RITA who might improve up in trip, the Sydney class mare the 8-ONLY WORDS and value on the last start winner 13-MISS GUGGENHEIM.
BEST ROUGH: Race 3: 2-DAILY BUGLE $2 EW
The Stutt Stakes always seems to attract a small field, and there doesn’t seem to be much between the 3YOs this year. The 3-FORGOT YOU was super impressive last start here and looks hard to beat, but still think this one is better than his form suggests. Drop back and run on type who has an explosive turn of foot, and don’t think the race pattern suited last start. Fitter for the 3 runs in and ready to do something now up in distance. If they are running on and winning swooping suspect he is going to show his best form tonight and worth something as a roughie at $20 in a small field.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 6: 3-DEFIBRILIATE at around $3
Talented stayer fitter for the two runs in and suited up in distance, but he is also a drop back horse in a race that is often won by those on speed. He was won at MV before, but unless there is a strong run-on swooping pattern suspect he may get too far back tonight and something on-speed pinches this before he gets warm, so happy to look for others in this race.
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a 25 million vaccine doses, pronto.
Race 7: TRIFECTA: 4,11 / 2,4,6,11 / 2,3,4,6,8,9,11 x $5 = 16.66%
Probably a bit of value around in the feature race, so anchor the 4-PORTLAND SKY, 11-PROFITEER to win, value in the place getters 2-WILD RULER and 6-SWAT’S THAT and if one of the favoured runners misses third we should snare a decent dividend.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 6,7,8,9: 6,12 / 1,6,13 / 2,4,6,11/ 7,8,9,12,13 x $20 = 16.66%
Even fields so we should get an decent quaddie dividend tonight if we can just find a winner or two away from the obvious. The 955M races can be very tricky, but think the either the 6-CURRAN or 12-YULONG COMMAND wins in the first leg. Bit of value in the second leg with the three selections, 6-INVERLOCH, 1-HOMESMAN, 13-GHODELEINE and a few at double figure odds are a chance in the feature race including 4-PORTLAND SKY and 6-SWAT’S THAT. Last leg is wide open and where you want to go wide in a very even field and maybe throw one in at odds like 7-RIPPER RITA just so you have a large approximate going if we are live coming into the last leg.
Race 1: 3-DARCEANDERMILL, 2-PORT LOUIS, 8-SMYTZER
Race 2: 4-IMPERIAL LAD, 9-LOMBARDO, 10-RANBIEL
Race 3: 3-FORGOT YOU, 2-DAILY BUGLE, 4-SANDY PRINCE
Race 4: 4-FLYING EVELYN, 5-LARKSPUR RUN, 8-HER EMPIRE
Race 5: 6-CURRAN, 12-YULONG COMMAND, 8-LEITER
Race 6: 6-INVERLOCH, 1-HOMESMAN, 13-GHODELEINE
Race 7: 4-PORTLAND SKY, 11-PROFITEER, 2-WILD RULER
Race 8: 9-SO YOU ASSUME, 12-BUTTER CHICKEN, 7-RIPPER RITA
