Cold weather and a few showers around, but not really enough to affect the track. We always seem to strike crappy weather for these MV night season kick offs for some reason. Rail is TRUE and normally that means they can ran on OK, with small fields and not much speed in some of these races though those sitting on speed will be hard to beat.
The feature race is pretty fascinating from a form point of view and these MV sprints really just always come down to luck, and who gets the split/right run at the right time. This is going to be a fast 1000M scamper, with 3-BALL OF MUSCLE leading, 5-FAATINAH and 6-NATURES STRIP sitting outside him, and the 8-HOUTZEN and 12-SNITTY KITTY sitting in behind them. Basically it really all comes down to luck and how much pressure there is on up front there, but suspect there is going to be an awful lot with 6 horses who could potentially go forward.
The 6-NATURE STRIP is the one to beat and is flying at the moment and seems to have ironed out of lot of his flaws. Middle barrier draw suits him as he can sit outside horses racing on speed in plenty of space, don’t think he would handle too much pressure from an inside barrier. He is going to have the pressure on early though, and think that leaves him slightly vulnerable and lets see how he copes with it. He is the one to beat, but is pretty short in the market, and think this race sets up perfectly for the 1-BRAVE SMASH. Fitter for the 2 runs in, fast speed suits, drawn outside to swoop over the top of them late with a clear run and he has a scintillating finishing burst when right. Main other runner we are interested in is the 12-SNITTY KITTY, mainly because she can sit in space behind the leaders here and come into the race at the right time. Favourite is hard to beat, but plenty of value about some other extremely good horses and think just prefer to back the other two runners at $13 and $21 which seems very genuine odds.
For the rest of the program, this is a traditional MV night meeting with a swag of $2 favourites and really most of them should win. Which makes it really hard to find anything at value for the Betting Portfolio. There are two horses running tonight that we have flagged to follow this spring, Race 2: 5-SHEEZDASHING who we think will be the best of the 4YO mares coming through, and Race 3: 3-TRAP FOR FOOLS who is tough, on pace stayer on the rise. Good luck to all those going around in the barrier trial against CHAUTAUQUA as well.
BEST WIN: Race 2: 5-SHEEZDASHING $7 WIN
Taking this on spec a bit, as really on racing pattern the favourite the 1-I AM A STAR should lead easily here and be hard to run down. Really keen to follow this 4YO mare this spring though and over the middle of the year she put in a string of really impressive strong finishing runs. Win strike rate isn’t the best, but think she is going to go on with it this campaign. 1st up run was excellent, she came out of the pack and was making fast ground against the two on pacers and probably would have grabbed them in another ten metres or so. She will drop back, but small field and outside barrier will suit and if the track plays that they can swoop off the camber and run on and win think she might stamp herself tonight as a major contender this spring. Backing straight out at around $4.00
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 1-BRAVE SMASH $5 EW
Plenty of value in the feature race, especially if the short priced favourite gets a lot of pressure up front. Has the class and turn of foot to win this. If the pressure is on, the race is set up for this one to swoop out wide over the top of them and think we prefer to back him each way at around $13 rather than back the short priced favourite.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 9-SWEET ROCKETTE $5 EW
QUINELLA: Race 6: 9-SWEET ROCKETTE#2,6,10,11 x $4 = 100%
This is one of the most open races of the night and probably the best betting race of the night. This is also probably the horse we are most keen to back this long punting weekend. Nice win here 1st up and then thought the Flemington straight run was pretty good when got shuffled too far back and down the middle of the track, which was not the best going and fought on well in the finish. Suited here back to MV with a nice sit from a barrier 7 on speed and looks a very confident each way bet at around $9. Back each way and take quinellas which should pay well with the likely leader the (2), the very consistent (6), the (10) on speed and the (11) and both of those last two were SCR last week to be kept for this race.
QUINELLA: Race 1: 2-SUNSET WATCH, 5-DIVINE MR TYCOON x $2 = 200%
QUINELLA: Race 1: 2-SUNSET WATCH, 10-SHAMINO x $2 = 200%
Hard to find much value tonight with so many short priced favourites. The (2) here will start short, but really should jump, lead and win. Trying to find some value in the quinella in a field where there isn’t much between the rest of them, so the two on pacers the (5) and the (10) look most likely.
BEST ROUGH: Race 4: 9-SAXOPHONE $2 EW
The two favourites in this race the (4) and the (1) are going to be hard to beat, but this one should be fitter for the last two runs and has a habit of popping up at odds in these short of races. Well drawn in space, and sometimes crazy things can happen in these 955M scampers, so suspect he will be in the finish somewhere here at around $26.
BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 3-KINGS COMMAND $3 EW
The last race is extremely ordinary, but the thing that really sticks out is that there is no speed at all. This one surprised many (including us), when he put together some very impressive wins last campaign when well into his racing career and his form looked pretty exposed. 1st up run in Adelaide was good when made good ground late. The 1200M may be a little short here, but he was winning leading over 1400M last campaign so what you would really like to see them do here is ride aggressively to the lead with an apprentice claim (so watch for riding tactics). The $26 on offer here seems rather generous in a race with very little depth so looks a good value end to the night.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more.
DAILY DOUBLE: Races 6, 8: 9 / 3,5,6 x $5 = 166%
Very hard to find any value tonight, but the last few races look the best options. We are keen on the Race 6: 9-SWEET ROCKETTE despite an open race, and with a long shot Race 8: 3-KINGS COMMAND in the last we have the option of landing a pretty decent Daily Double on a night that looks a bit skinny.
Race 1: 2-SUNSET WATCH, 5-DIVINE MR TYCOON, 10-SHAMINO
Race 2: 5-SHEEZDASHING, 1-I AM A STAR, 4-MRS GARDENIA
Race 3: 3-TRAP FOR FOOLS, 1-HARLEM, 2-THE TAJ MAHAL
Race 4: 4-GOLDFINCH, 1-YOU’VE BEEN HAD, 9-SAXOPHONE
Race 5: 2-MUSWELLBROOK, 4-LEONARDO DA HINCHI, 8-MARK THE HORSE
Race 6: 9-SWEET ROCKETTE, 6-HUMMA HUMMA, 11-GOLDEN HALO
Race 7: 1-BRAVE SMASH, 6-NATURE STRIP, 12-SNITTY KITTY
Race 8: 3-KINGS COMMAND, 5-ISAURIAN, 6-MANUEL
