Tips and suggested bets for the Moonee Valley meeting tonight.
It is extremely nice of the Victorian Government to make the Moir Stakes a public holiday. Weather is fine with a shower or two but not enough to affect the track which should just have that little extra MV give in it. Rail goes OUT 4M and it is pretty simple punting at MV, the further the rail goes out, the more the leaders win by. Get on the leaders and on pacers and there are some decent bets on what is a stronger than normal program.
The feature sprint race has come up extremely strong and hard to believe horses like SUPER CASH and ABILITY didn’t even make the field. Many of the better sprinters are drop back horses drawn wide and in these big feature sprints around MV luck in running plays a huge part, so think you want to go with someone drawn well that will sit on speed. That puts the 9-SHEIDEL on top, her recent form hasn’t been up to her best, but blinkers go on tonight and jockey Moreira seems to know how to get the best out of her. She can go forward and shouldn’t need luck. The in form and winning 5-RUSSIAN REVOLUTION the main danger, they will also need to go forward from an outside barrier and 3-VOODOO LAD the best of the back markers, even though he is drawn wide and back to the 1000M don’t think he can be underestimated. 12-SWEET SHERRY the best roughie with the cosy break on speed and bursting through if the runs come.
BEST BET : Race 6: 1-HELL OR HIGHWATER $7 WIN
No idea what happened to this horse but she has continued to improve and improve and improve, and pretty late in her career too. Tough, on pacer, who is fit and in form and there are question marks over how some of her main rivals are going here. Last win was awesome, kicked clear on the home turn and put the race beyond doubt, in a very strong form race. Should be able to go forward again tonight and there isn’t much pressure up front so really this race is there for her to win. Confident win bet at around $5.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 4-MUBAKKIR $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 2: 4,5,11 boxed x $3 = 100%
There isn’t any speed in this race at all, and hard to work out who is going to lead over the 1200M. Unless the 6-TUDOR goes back to front running tactics? Regardless, this one looks well drawn to go forward and sit handy in a race with very little pressure up front. Good career stats and hopefully is ready to go fresh at around $10. Also take a box quinella with the favourite the 11-SO YOU TOO and the MV specialist 5-SEBRING SUN who might do something fresh.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 6-FOUNDATION $5 EW
QUINELLA: Race 5: 6-FOUNDATION#2,5,12 x $3 = 100%
Williams stable runner who seems to be rapidly improving. Was really good here two starts back leading and fighting on well and then was ridiculously unlucky here last start when snagged back to last, loomed up with a big hold around the field on the turn and ran into a total dead end. Looked like he was going to cruise past them. Tactics are going to be important here and you would probably want to see them advising of racing handy. Back each way at around $5 and the quinella should pay OK in a even field with value runners like the 12-SPANISH REEF leading.
BEST ROUGH: Race 3: 11-ELLE GAGNE $2 EW
Speedy type who won maiden well and then fought on OK down the straight when not beaten far when leading into a wind. Although we have tipped the short priced favourite the 1-HOUTZEN on top, think she is vulnerable coming off a below par 1st up run and kept to her own age and sex here. This one should lead from a good barrier and if the track is favouring on pacers might give you a decent run for your money at around $31.
BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 8-MIGHTY BOSS $5 EW
Keeping the best for last tonight and think we have found one at great odds in the last race. Hard to line these 3YOs up with lots of different form lines, but this one was racing well and then had no luck at all at Flemington last start. Got held up for runs at the top of the straight badly and then once into the clear really chased hard and made up good ground. Racing like distance will suit and might come over the top of them in the last race. Quite keen to have a serious bet at odds here at around $17 and this is a really strong rough chance tonight.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 2: 8-LABUAN STAR at around $4.60
Fit and in form, but is a drop back sprinter drawn an inside barrier and there doesn’t seem to be much speed in this race at all. With the rail out he will need luck getting a clear run, unless they are clever and push forward (which invariably happens when you don’t expect them too, and never happens when you want them too). Keener on others.
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a deposit for a house on The Block.
QUAD: Races 5,6,7,8: 2,6,12 / 1 / 3,5,9,11 / 3,8,9 x $5 = 13.88%
Think we can have a quad tonight and there still seems to be some value around. We are going to anchor the best bet of the night, the Race 6: 1-HELL OR HIGHWATER and hope she just goes to the lead and that’s the end of that. Take the selections in the first leg, (6), (12), (2) and there is some value there in an open race. Go wide in the feature sprint (and probably add more runners if you can afford it), with (3), (5), (9), (11), and pretty confident we can come home on (8), (3), (9), which includes a good mix of favourites and roughies.
Race 1: 2-DANGER DEAL, 1-KOBAYASHI, 3-CORUSCATE
Race 2: 4-MUBAKKIR, 11-SO YOU TOO, 5-SEBRING SUN
Race 3: 1-HOUTZEN, 11-ELLE GAGNE, 9-MINTHA
Race 4: 4-SUPER MAXI, 6-SUPER TOO, 10-MADEENATY
Race 5: 6-FOUNDATION, 12-SPANISH REEF, 2-JON SNOW
Race 6: 1-HELL OR HIGHWATER, 11-SMART AS YOU THINK, 7-I AM A STAR
Race 7: 9-SHEIDEL, 5-RUSSIAN REVOLUTION, 3-VOODOO LAD
Race 8: 8-MIGHTY BOSS, 3-SHOWTIME, 9-WASSERGEIST
