Weather is looking pretty clear in Melbourne with the chance of a few showers coming through at some stage, but they really shouldn’t affect the track that much. Normally when the rail is TRUE at MV the racing pattern favours those running on late and swooping around the turn. Having said that, just be wary tonight as we have relatively small fields and quite a few races where there isn’t much speed at all so race tempo is going to be very, very important.
As always with MV, there are plenty of short priced favourites, and you are unlikely to get fabulously rich with skinny dividends - but think there are a few decent each way bets tonight to warm up your punting weekend.
BEST BET: Race 3: 6-OBERVATIONAL $8 WIN
EXACTA: 7-TOM MELBOURNE - 6-OBERVATIONAL x $2
Imported stayer who can mix his form a little bit, but finished off really well here 1st up and then got too far back in a big field in the Naturalism and made good ground late. Fitter for the 2 runs in and should be ready to do something tonight. Will get back and will need them to be running on and winning, so just be wary of not much speed in this race. Back straight out at around $4.80 and save with an exacta with the favourite and leader the hopelessly over rated 7-TOM MELBOURNE who might get this race handed to him in front, just in case he leads and pinches this before our one runs home too late.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 1: 8-PLOT THE COURSE $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 1: 8-PLOT THE COURSE#3,4,5,19 x $2 = 50%
This one showed a fair bit of promise this time last year, but then just didn’t come up in an Autumn preparation. 1st up run this spring looked good and was running on well late. Fitter for that run, blinkers go on for the 1st time and should be able to sit off the speed here and finish over the top of them around the camber. Back each way at around $6.50 and anchor in a quinella with the dangers the 4-SADAQA, 5-MARWOOD and some silly roughies the (3) and (10) and try for a decent collect. Happy to take on the favourite here the 7-MR INDIVIDUAL at short odds, even though he is a horse we follow, coming off a bad run and a very long preparation.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 8-KACHING $5 EW
Even group of 3YOs in the Bill Stutt but this one is showing a lot of promise and has done nothing wrong in 3 career starts. Drawn out and drops back, but will be suited if they are swooping and winning with the rail TRUE. Like that he has had the 1600M run this time in and many of his rivals have not and was an eye catcher late last start at Caulfield. Blinkers first time to sharpen him up and looks a good each way bet in an even field at around $6.50.
QUINELLA: Race 8: 3-HEZA RIPPER#6,7,8,10 x $6 = 200%
Watch out in the last race as all the speed runners have been scratched, which leaves the fit and in form 3-HEZA RIPPER with a soft lead from barrier 1. In flying form and looks a really good value quinella bet leading so anchor with the main dangers the 7-SEBRING SUN, 6-MANGUS REIGN and the (8) and (10). Really keen on this quinella and think we will get a decent collect in an even field.
BEST ROUGH: Race 4: 6-GENERAL JACKSON $2 EW
Recent form on this one is utterly hopeless and hasn’t even placed in his last 7 starts. But he is a straight out fresh, 1000M jump and run horse so he looks suited in this race tonight. Note the recent barrier trial win and they really burnt him to the lead that day and think the intention here from barrier 1 will be to jump and run and keep going. Is better than form suggests. Was expecting better odds than the $10 on offer, but think he will drift come race time.
BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 7-HEATHERLY $2WIN $3 PLACE
The super speedy 7-HEATHERLY might be the surprise packet in the feature race tonight. One we have not seen the best of yet, is fitter for the 2 runs in and has race fitness on her main rivals. MV 1000M specialist and like she has drawn a middle barrier so can sit in clear running and keep going. Looks over the odds at around $15 and $3.60 the place especially.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 8: 4-SIR BACCHUS at around $2.70
Sydney visitor who is fitter for the 2 runs in and doesn’t strike a particularly strong field here. But drop back type, 1st time in Melbourne, 1st time around MV, drawn an inside barrier in a field with not much speed he might need a fair bit of luck getting a clear crack at them. You can probably Black Book him now as an unlucky runner and save yourself the hassle of watching the race! Just far too short at around $2.70 and besides if you are looking for a last race get out you want to find some value so we don’t want this one to win.
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet.
$5 ALL UP
PLACE: Race 1: 8-PLOT THE COURSE
PLACE: Race 6: 3-JESSY BELLE
PLACE: Race 7: 7-HEATHERLY
PLACE: Race 8: 3-HEZA RIPPER
The Best Place bet of the night is probably the Race 6: 3-JESSY BELLE who is fitter for the 2 runs in and has had no luck, but just struggles to win one of these feature mare races. Drawn middle barrier to sit on the speed here and present at the right time and should be in the finish. Although we don’t like backing the same horse more than once, let’s try and make the most of it with an all up place bet around our other selections and looking at around a $200 return for a $5 outlay
Race 1: 8-PLOT THE COURSE, 4-SADAQA, 5-MARWOOD
Race 2: 9-DAM READY, 2-KEN’S DREAM, 7-CURVATURE
Race 3: 6-OBERVATIONAL, 7-TOM MELBOURNE, 1-REAL LOVE
Race 4: 6-GENERAL JACKSON, 3-GUN CASE, 7-ESTAMINET
Race 5: 8-KACHING, 1-DETECTIVE, 7-MANDALAY BAY
Race 6: 2-MISS ROSE DE LAGO, 3-JESSY BELLE, 10-DON’T DOUBT MAMMA
Race 7: 2-CHAUTAUQUA, 7-HEATHERLY, 1-BUFFERING
Race 8: 3-HEZA RIPPER, 7-SEBRING SUN, 6-MANGUS REIGN
