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It always pays to check out what offers the corporate bookmakers are throwing at you this spring to make the most of your punting dollar. |
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| MOONEE VALLEY: MOIR STAKES - 2nd Oct 2015 |
| Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: FINE - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Fine weather heading into the weekend in Melbourne, so this track should be firming up the further we go into the weekend. Rail is TRUE tonight, which normally means at MV that they can run on OK. Normally this meeting opens the night racing season and it can often favour those running on speed, but the opening meeting this year was last week with the rail OUT 5M. Think we should get even racing tonight, just always wary of on pace horses at MV night meetings, no matter where the rail is. It is free entry tonight for anyone wearing Hawthorn or West Coast colours, though if you wear the Hawthorn clash jumper you will just get laughed at and told to go home and put something sensible on. Not a bad program to have a bet tonight, but will be more certain once we see the racing pattern. The Stock Stakes and the Stutt Stakes are really struggling to get decent fields in recent years which is disappointing. Pretty keen to have a go at a few each way bets tonight. RESULTS: Track comes up quite firm and despite the rail being TRUE the track strongly favours those racing on speed. Those who come around the field struggle to make ground, only chance is to cut the corner. BEST BET: Race 6: 7-GENUINE LAD $10 WIN X Well performed Tasmanian have a crack at a spring campaign and worth noting THE CLEANER won this race last year, leading all the way, and there is a very good chance this one will do the same this year. Fitter for the 2 runs in, 1st up dropped out and did nothing in a race where nothing made ground. Then was excellent 2nd up, was up 600M in distance, drew outside, had to cross to go to the lead, and fought on well to not be beaten far behind the (5) and the (3) here. Should have a lot of improvement to come here and likely to go to the lead without too much pressure. Looks the one to beat to us. Was hoping to get better odds and make it an each way bet, but currently looking at around $6 so let’s back him straight out. Suspect we will get better odds on the tote come race time though and this one is going to be very hard to beat. RESULTS: With the track favouring on pacers we were really confident coming into this race. Sat outside leader (who led all the way and won), but was the first horse beaten. Most disappointing. BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 4-PRECIOUS GEM $4 WIN X QUINELLA Race 3: 4-PRECIOUS GEM, 2-MAY’S DREAM x $4 X, 2nd 2-MAY'S DREAM W=$2.70 QUINELLA Race 3: 4-PRECIOUS GEM, 1-AMANPOUR x $2 X QUINELLA Race 3: 4-PRECIOUS GEM, 6-UNGRATEFUL ELLEN x $2 X, 4th 6-UNGRATEFUL ELLEN W=$13.70 She is one we follow and despite not looking well weighted here (she meets the (2) 3kgs worse off from last start at Flemington), think she will be in the finish tonight. Fitter for the 2 runs back, 1st up she made a dashing run wide but faded on a day here when nothing made ground out wide and then she was not beaten far at all in blanket finish at Flemington. Excellent MV record. The key to her chances here is the small field, and many of these are backmarkers, and she can sit up handy if they want and she has a better turn of foot then many of these. So ridden in a sit and sprint race think she is a solid each way bet at around $7.50. Probably not much point backing the place though with only two place dividends, so instead let’s take quinellas with the (2) who is flying, the likely leader the (1) and the one at odds who could step up this spring the (6). RESULTS: Drops out the back early - and the race was over before it even begun. Even allowing for an on pacers track needed to be up and running on the speed to be any chance. Never looked likely. BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 4-FLAMBERGE $5 EW X They should run along OK in the feature race and often in the MV 1000M sprints you want to be on something drawn middle or wider, that can sit off them and get into clear running. This one has been in fantastic form over the last year, is a Group 1 sprint winner (unlike many going around here), ran really well 1st up here when only beaten by the best sprinter in Australia, and is yet to be unplaced in 3 starts this track. Should sit off the speed out wide and if they go hard enough in front will run over the top of them. Then they tell you the odds are $12 !! Yes please. Fantastic each way bet. RESULTS: No chance the way the track was playing, but worked home really well amongst runners and is going along quite nicely this spring. Keep following. BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 2-GRANE $4 EW 2nd W=$16.10, P=$3.80 = $15.20 Really consistent sprinter who always seems to go around at great each way odds. Good win/place strike rate, likes to drop back a bit and run on. So the MV 955m can be a bit dicey giving his running style and he will be giving these a start, but there is plenty of speed in this race and they should be running on OK tonight. Drawn out is perfect, he can sit back and wide and swoop into the race around the home turn. 1st up run was excellent when poked up on the rails and got held up for runs and crowded for room. Nice each way bet at around $13. RESULTS: Ridden for luck at the back of the field, waits for runs and burst through in the last 50M - probably wins if he gets into the clear earlier. Keeps going around at great odds and keep following this one. BEST ROUGH: Race 2: 8-SCHOCKEMOHLE $2.50 EW X Bit of a no namer, but he does have a habit of popping up at long odds, including a win here. Generally he wants it a bit further, but quite liked the 1st up run, when he was caught wide and exposed and fought on for a long way in the straight. Has won here at MV at $21, and ran 2nd at $61. He can race wide and on speed here and may stick on much better than expected. Have a dabble at around $23 but sure to be much longer odds on the tote come race time. RESULTS: Caught wide all the way and never a factor. Give another chance over further. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 3: 7-SARDAAJ at around $4.60 X 7th W=$6.80 NZ import who had a bit of a spruik on her and was unlucky here 1st up when held up for runs and stormed home late. Sent out a very short priced favourite at Caulfield and although she was caught wide, really did nothing and was very disappointing. Guess you can forgive one bad run, but now she is up in distance, and up in class and just think you would want better odds than the $4.60 on offer here against mares who are proven in this grade. Happy to risk. RESULTS: Really not sure why people wanted to back her again, up in class and coming off a poor run. Never a factor. TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. $5 ALL UP PLACE: Race 3: 4-PRECIOUS GEM X PLACE: Race 5: 2-PATCH ADAMS X PLACE: Race 6: 7-GENUINE LAD X PLACE: Race 7: 4-FLAMBERGE X Let’s try a Poor Man’s Quaddie a try tonight – the placegetter in four races. We haven’t backed the 4-PRECIOUS GEM the place in the suggested bets, so let’s do it here instead, into the consistent 2-PATCH ADAMS who has been racing against better horses than these. The 7-GENUINE LAD should lead and be in the finish, and really keen to come home on the 4-FLAMBERGE who seems way over the odds and should be in the finish. We are doubling up on horses we have already backed, but looking at a nice $200 or so for a $5 outlay if things go our way. RESULTS: 0 out of 4. Scoreboard. SPENT:$50 RETURN: $15.20 NET: $-34.80 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 3-KEEN ARRAY, 6-PRESTWICK, 1-MAWAHIBB Race 2: 1-MOONOVERMANHATTAN, 8-SCHOCKEMOHLE, 5-BURNING FRONT Race 3: 4-PRECIOUS GEM, 2-MAY’S DREAM, 1-AMANPOUR Race 4: 2-GRANE, 8-RELDAS, 4-GALLANT HARMONY Race 5: 6-RAGNAAR, 2-PATCH ADAMS, 8-ADMIRABEEL Race 6: 7-GENUINE LAD, 5-THE UNITED STATES, 6-DESERT JEUNEY Race 7: 4-FLAMBERGE, 13-PETITS FILOUS, 6-BALL OF MUSCLE Race 8: 11-GALAXY PEGASUS, 6-TAWTEEN, 12-WEINHOLT |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 3-KEEN ARRAY 1st W=$3.00 6-PRESTWICK 1-MAWAHIBB 2nd W=$2.40 Quinella: $2.80 |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-MOONOVERMANHATTAN 8-SCHOCKEMOHLE 5-BURNING FRONT 1st W=$5.80 |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-PRECIOUS GEM 2-MAY’S DREAM 2nd W=$2.70 1-AMANPOUR |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 2-GRANE 2nd W=$16.10 8-RELDAS 1st W=$9.10 4-GALLANT HARMONY Quinella: $70.80 *** Nice Value Quinella *** |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 6-RAGNAAR 2-PATCH ADAMS 8-ADMIRABEEL |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-GENUINE LAD 5-THE UNITED STATES 6-DESERT JEUNEY |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-FLAMBERGE 13-PETITS FILOUS 6-BALL OF MUSCLE 2nd W=$9.30 |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 11-GALAXY PEGASUS 2nd W=$4.80 6-TAWTEEN 3rd W=$4.50 12-WEINHOLT |
| RACE 7: MOIR STAKES 1000M GROUP 1 WFA |
| Tips: 4-FLAMBERGE 13-PETITS FILOUS 6-BALL OF MUSCLE 2nd W=$9.30 |
| Others: 1, 9,5 Pace: GENUINE Leaders: 1-BUFFERING, 3-RAIN AFFAIR, 6-BALL OF MUSCLE, 13-PETITS FILOUS Handy: 4-FLAMBERGE, 5-LE BONSIR, 9-MISS PROMISCUITY, 11-HEADWATER Back: 2-STERLING CITY, 7-ANGELIC LIGHT, 8-GRIANTE, 10-BROOK ROAD, 12-FONTITON Chances: 1-BUFFERING is a grand old campaigner who has been at the top of the sprinting ranks since we were just a young upstart with a dial up modem. 4 times winner here at MV and 3 times this track and distance, including this race last year. Ran 2nd in this race in 2013. Note that this race has been dropped back to be 1000M this year though and was previously 1200M. That probably suits this one as he has had a long, long lay off of close to a year, whereas in previous years he had normally had the standard 2-3 month break coming into this race. Won 7 from 10 first up is just plain astounding! He is a straight out jump and run horse and like that he has drawn a middle barrier here which means he can sit just off them in space if one is quicker earlier on. 1st up and MV record says he is right in this, have a slight query if he might need a run or two this time in because of the long break, but has to be rated as a chance. Watch the betting to see how confident the stable is. Chance. 1st W=$6.80 4-FLAMBERGE has been racing really consistently over the last year and seems to have gone up a level. Really good back in the Autumn when he gave the super sprinter CHAUTAUQUA a bit of a scare at Caulfield, and picked up a nice Group 1 sprint over in Adelaide over winter. Really good 1st up here a few weeks back behind the super sprinter again. Placed 3 from 3 here at MV. He seems to be racing really well and like that he is drawn out here, he can sit just off the speed, but in clear running which is really important over the MV 1000M. Strong chance. 6-BALL OF MUSCLE isn’t probably quite as tough as his name sounds and really he is just a big softie with feelings. Lightly raced sprinter with an excellent win and place strike rate and has yet to miss the place in 15 career starts – making him the BLACK CAVIAR of the trifecta world. Fitter for the 2 runs back and both have been good, leading and fighting and note both of those were on wet tracks and he gets back to a firm track tonight which might be preferable. 1st try the Melbourne way of going and has to contend with barrier 1 around MV, which we think is a bit of a query – but that will depend on how much pressure there is up front here and if the runners push forward from the outside. He is going well, and might lead here without too much pressure. Chance. 2nd W=$9.30 13-PETITS FILOUS is the boom filly of the spring so far and has been winning in devastating style. 4 starts, 4 wins and unbeaten in her career so far. Smashed a small field here 1st up, and again 2nd up. Seemed to be dying on her run at Caulfield and that flagged the 1100M is probably as far as she wants. Actually thought she might be vulnerable down the straight over 1100M, but she sat and sprinted and said Bye Bye and it was all over in a very impressive win in fast time. She is drawn middle and will go forward and pressure those on the rails here. Question mark is going to be how she handles the open class Group 1 racing, in particular whether anything comes from outside barriers to put pressure on her early on here – so a lot really depends on what the (3) does. She is flying and the one to beat, but they all have to lose sometime* (*BLACK CAVIAR exception asterisk). Think she is way too short in this, goes into the tips as a winning chance, but won’t be backing her. Strong chance. Place: 5-LE BONSIR is a MV specialist and has won 4 times here. Last start was actually his first try over the 1000M, which is surprising given he has been a sprinter around for a few years now and he won nicely, sitting just off the speed and running into the race at the right time. Drawn to do the same again tonight. Firm track is a big plus too. Seems absolutely crazy odds, $50 plus, for a last start winner this track and distance, though guess he has struggled when tried at this level before. Did run 3rd in this race in 2013, but beaten a long way. Really take away the first few in the market here and he is competitive against the rest of these. Will probably find one or more better again tonight, but seems great value for quinellas and trifectas and probably won’t be far away. Good rough place chance. 8-GRIANTE is a super consistent sprinting mare, who has been gradually getting better with each run in this time in. She was hitting the lead and looking the winner, but stopping in her first few runs this time in. Last 2 runs have been excellent, especially last start when came from last to only just miss. Note that those runs were all over 1200M though and she drops back to 1000M here. Speed on should suit and will sit out the back of the field here to make a late run. Ran 3rd here in a Group 1 here back in January. This is her first ever try at 1000M. Drawn well, think she will be running on – just suspect she might find one too brilliant over this trip but solid place chance. Place. 9-MISS PROMISCUITY is a smart sprinting mare who is under rated. Smart win strike rate and rarely misses the place. Won a Group race at Caulfield over winter, but was well held when beaten last start at Caulfield. Both of those starts were on wet ground though and pretty sure she is better on dry tracks. Group 1 company is the test, but she looks to have many of these covered on form. Drawn barrier 2 is the trick, and she doesn’t want to get caught on the rails behind the leader the (6) here. If she gets a clear crack at them she is a rough chance in this and another great value place chance. Drawn out a little would have put her into the tips actually. Place. 12-FONTITON has only 51kgs and it is rare these days that we get to see horses going around with such low weights. Very smart 2YO, who could sit off them and win (which is unusual for a 2YO), and got sent out a short priced favourite in the Blue Diamond when was fair, but slightly disappointing and pulled up with an injury. Freshen up and this is her first run back for the spring as a 3YO. Drawn out, and that suits, because she doesn’t have the early speed to go with them here. Watch market but capable of winning this 1st up – but also just be aware of 3YO hysteria and don’t go over rating her chances in this – we don’t know how she lines up here, she has had a few months off, injury and first time into open company. There are reservations and might wait and see how she comes back rather than diving in at the odds on offer. Prefer place. Sacking: 2-STERLING CITY is a Hong Kong sprinter whose form before leaving to come to Australia was pretty bloody ordinary. Only the one run for the new stable, didn’t have any market support and did very little. Hard to even consider. No 3-RAIN AFFAIR is a Sydney sider who loves absolutely flies along in front, but more recently he has been flying along – and stopping. He hasn’t won a race now in over 2 years. He does like to burn along and get out to big leads though so will ensure this is a fast run 1000M (which it probably would be regardless). He normally leads clearly in 1200M to 1400M races, he might not be able to get such a clear lead here over the 1000M. You would think the drop back in distance here is probably because he isn’t finishing off his races. Best form is on wet ground and this track is likely to get quite firm. Drawn out a bit and if he tears forward he is going to put a lot of pressure here on those also going forward. Can’t have on form, but he may be an important runner here from a tactical point of view. No 7-ANGELIC LIGHT is a pretty lightly raced 6 year old mare, who had a long mid career break and has come back in great form over the last year or so. Upset LANKAN RUPEE here this time last year over this track and distance and was only narrowly beaten in the Manikato here last year. Had another long break since disappointing January run here. The firm track suits and has the ability to win this on her day. Drawn out and will drop back and will sit off them here. Might just want to see how she comes back again after a long break and watch the betting for hints as to how they think she is going. Prefer to risk. 3rd W=$14.50 10-BROOK ROAD is another lightly raced one with a good win strike rate. 1st time Melbourne way of going, and had a 6 week break since good wet track Sydney win last start. Likely to drop back here from outside barrier and suspect this class is going to test. No 11-HEADWATER is one of three 3YO olds in this race and although they can often pick up sprinting races with no weight, punters can also get a bit carried away with them. Boom 2YO who won his first start this track and distance, but has since turned into a bust 3YO with two runs back that haven’t really been that good. Drawn barrier 3 and assume they will press forward here and put the pressure on the (6) leading. Can’t really have on form, but adds to the equation to put pressure up front in this race. No 4th W=$20.60 Summary: Note that this race has been dropped back from 1200M to 1000M this year. Which does kind of make sense. We used to have the Group 1 Manikato Stakes on this night, it got swapped to move it to Cox Plate day, and the Group 2 Moir Stakes moved back to this date. Then the Moir Stakes got upgraded to be a Group 1, which meant effectively that a Group 1 1200M race was replaced with ummm, a Group 1 1200M race. Can you spot the difference? MV 1000M races can often be tricky. They all dash to go forward, you definitely don’t want to be on the rails behind the leaders as you will never get out, and the best ones to follow are normally the horse that just sits off the speed from a middle barrier, so you get a clear run into the race. Whilst the speed here is fast, it is not excessive. The 6-BALL OF MUSCLE should lead and rail here, the 13-PETITS FILOUS will sit outside him and pressure him, this race really depends on how fast the 1-BUFFERING, 3-RAIN AFFAIR go. If they press forward also then it bring the leaders unstuck, and sets it up for something sitting just off them, if they don’t think these two could run away with it. Going to go for the value here and can’t really fault the form of the 4-FLAMBERGE who should sit off the speed here and run into the race at the right time. The short priced, and incredibly poor value 13-PETITS FILOUS the main danger, and her chances really depend on how much pressure here is early in this, as do the chances of the 6-BALL OF MUSCLE leading on the rails but going to assume the speed up front isn’t going to be that strong. Don’t be surprised to see the likes of 9-MISS PROMISCUITY, 5-LE BONSIR around the finish at odds either. One to risk: 12-FONTITON 8th W=$6.40 Roughie: 9-MISS PROMISCUITY The Key: MV 1000M, draw middle sit in clear running off the speed. Beware 3YO hysteria. RESULTS: The grand old sprinter 1-BUFFERING jumps and leads, beats off the 3YO's and then beats off the next bunch. Amazing effort. The 13-PETITS FILOUS buckles under the pressure and really represented a shocking bet. 6-BALL OF MUSCLE travelling really well and probably almost wins if not held up on the home turn. Keep following the 4-FLAMBERGE who had no chance the way the track was racing and ran on well. |
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