Tips, suggested bets and feature race preview for Memsie Stakes at Caulfield 31/08/2024.
Time to move on from racing politics and dive into the form guide once again. A few showers leading into Saturday, but it has also been Wizard of Oz style windy so this track should come up quite firm. Keep an eye on how windy it is during the race day and also if you need cover, but on a firm track and rail back to TRUE expecting the racing pattern to favour those on-speed – and maybe strongly so. Racing pattern will be really important this week.
This is a funny punting program, there are quite a few big open fields, but have landed on the obvious $4 favourites in most legs and think punters are struggling to split the rest of these fields. Definitely not that clear cut and expect to see plenty of good dividends today, but can’t spot where they are going to come from at the moment.
Reminder that for Spring Campaign 2024 we will be posting tips Saturday morning, (earlier if time allows), so keep an eye out from 10am onwards. Feature race preview at the bottom of this post.
BEST WIN: Race 1: 3-SASSY BOOM $6 WIN
Fairly even field to start the day, but this one showed a lot of potential last campaign and expect she is going to go on with it this spring. Likes a firm track, given two jump outs leading into this so should be quite forward and she can jump and sit handy here and has the turn of foot to sprint away from them in the straight. Back straight out at around $5.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 6-WONDER BOY $5 EW
Looks like a quality 3YO on the rise. Absolutely launched to win his first start at Flemington and was just winding up at the end of the race here last start. Speed on here should suit, he will be sitting off them and coming hard late so will need them to be running on and winning but just get the feeling he may be pretty good. Keen to back each way at around $7.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 2-WROTE TO ARATAKI $5 EW, QUINELLA 2-WROTE TO ARATAKI#1,3,8,12 x $4 = 100%
Keen to find some value in a big field and this one has consistently been competitive at this level over the last few years. Given a few jump outs leading into this, drawn well, jockey Kah on board and most importantly can jump and go forward here and sit on speed. Ran third in this race last year when missed the start and ended up at the back of the field and finished hard late. Given the perfect run into the race looks pretty likely to be in the finish at around $12. Looks a good value anchor quinella with the classy 1-QUINTESSA, the strong finishing 2-SKYBIRD who will need the speed on and for them to be running on, and in-form 8-EXTRATWO off a great ride last week, and the one to beat the favourite 12-EXPRESSIVENESS who was really good here last start and will go forward too.
QUINELLA: Race 8: 5-JIMMY THE BEAR, 8-FUTURE HISTORY, 14-POSITIVITY x $6 = 200%
Really don’t like this race every year, once again we have a few milers going around who are vulnerable at the 1700M up against a stack of stayers first up who will probably need the run. Normally it’s the stayers who finish on over the top of them in this, so liking the 8-FUTURE HISTORY on speed at odds if he regains his old form and the up and coming 14-POSITIVITY who is first-up going into his 4YO season to run over the top of the consistent 5-JIMMY THE BEAR who is just about always in the finish, and just, just, just gets the 1700M, but will be vulnerable late.
BEST ROUGH: Race 3: 4-STATION ONE $2 EW
This guy only knows one way to run and that is full throttle to lead (so don’t take him on at the traffic lights). That is likely to be the racing pattern, this is a big field of drop back stayers and most of them are early on in their preparations. Third-up ridden aggressively to the lead possible he could expose some of these and get them chasing and jockey Kennedy riding extremely well too. Happy to have something on at a massive $51, but still hoping for a drift come race time as $81 was available earlier today.
BEST ROUGH: Race 10: 13-MARACANA $2.50 EW
We have a short priced favourite in the last 2-ANOTHER WIL who looks vulnerable from an outside barrier having to work to go forward 1st up, so looking for something with a good barrier who will sit handy and sprint through late. This one is well-drawn, will sit handy and competed at a high level up in QLD over the winter when she seemed to improve rapidly. Something at odds at $18 first-up today.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 3: 3-MATTHEW at around $4.60
This one has been racing well, but has won – flopped – won – flopped and has being having post-race issues. Capable of winning this on best form, but just doesn’t look a reliable betting proposition in a big field where we want to find some value. Risking.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a high pressure hose for cleaning concrete.
QUINELLA: Race 3: 4,9,12,13,14 boxed x $5 = 50%
We landed a $100 Early Quad collect here last week from just a $5 spend. This week let’s take a box quinella in the widest race of the day with plenty of value runners. The 4-STATION ONE we have already highlighted as a long shot roughie, the 12-RISE TO IT was excellent last start off a fast speed and will go forward, the 14-BIG STORY will be suited with the speed on, as well drop back strong finisher 9-SHULTZY and the 13-GENTIAN BLUE looks ready to do something. Plenty of value runners in that lot.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 7,8,9,10: 2,3,8,12 / 1,2,3,5,8,13,14 / 1,3,7 / 2,11,13 x $20 = 7.9%
We should have the first leg covered, the second leg we really don’t like and suggest you go wide as you can, be a little cheeky and throw in a third runner outside the two main chances in the feature race, such as 3-GENTLEMAN ROY and that is where the result can blow out. Come home on just the three selections in the last where will need some luck in a big even field.
Feature Race Preview:
For the feature Memsie Stakes, we have a proper WFA race with two stars returning and lots of head-to-head talk about this race leading into it and it is probably well-deserved. We have two definite leaders here, the 3-GENTLEMAN ROY and the 7-PRIDE OF JENNI, and the 3-GENTLEMAN ROY probably crosses and leads early with race fitness on his side, but expect the 7-PRIDE OF JENNI to take off soon after and run to an early and clear lead. Question will be will anything be game to try and stick close to her and possibly bring themselves undone as a result? The 2-AEGON and the 4-BANDERSNATCH probably settle next and the rest are backmarkers who will be chasing well before the turn.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-MR BRIGHTSIDE has been plugging away super honestly and racking up wins for a few seasons now, and was working hard to put himself into the champion category through honest-hard work. And then 7-PRIDE OF JENNI came on the scene out of nowhere and just surpassed him quickly. Amazing track stats of 5 wins from 7 starts, and unbeaten in 5 starts this track and distance. Won this race last year 2nd up, and only just got past his arch rival here in the autumn to win the C.F.Orr. Other than that the (7) has had him covered, but his best chance to beat her is first-up this track and distance. He can be slowly away and don’t want him too far back here, but also not too close either to puncture chasing, so will need a perfectly judged ride. He might have the edge here if the 7-PRIDE OF JENNI isn’t at full fitness. Strong chance.
2-AEGON has been a bit of an enigma in his Australian runs, ran a slashing race 1st up here two weeks back, but also did the same thing in that race last year and didn’t go on with it into the spring. Can be a bit slow away and suspect he prefers a bit of give in the ground and this is likely to be a very firm track. Concerned if he misses the start again behind a tear-away speed. Probably works home nicely for a well beaten 4th or so, but can’t suggest with any confidence. No
3-GENTLEMAN ROY is a super tough on-speed dry track horse and great to see him getting back to his true form this time in. Last two wins have been super tough, they have loomed and challenged both times and he has held them off. Up in class now, but gets his chance on a likely leader’s track and with race fitness over this rivals here. Likely to lead here, but expect the (7) to aggressively cross early and he will be the one getting the sit into the race just behind the speed. Worth noting he sat 2nd behind the leader here last start too to peel off and win. We had a big opinion of this one early on and thought he would go on, he lost his form for a while but seems to be back and suspect he is going to be seriously in the finish here today and worth strong consideration. Chance.
4-BANDERSNATCH is a bit under-rated and constantly lobs just off the speed and gets into the finish of 1400M to 1600M races at good odds. Did just that 1st up here and does normally take 2-3 runs in each time to find his best form. Interesting they have decided to campaign him in Melbourne this time in and not Sydney, would have to check his spring targets. Going around at $100 and extremely unlikely to win against these, but he will settle just behind the speed and plug on pretty well so don’t be surprised if he runs top four at odds (hello same-race multi). Likely to run better than odds suggest without being a serious chance.
5-PINTSTRIPED loomed into the race like the winner here last start, but was laying in on top of the horse on his inside and that probably cost him the race. Capable at WFA but would need to prove himself against the top-liners here. Likely to drop well back and give those up front a head start and that’s a bit of a concern, and suspect he is better with some give in the ground and this track may come up too firm. Excellent run last start, but rough only here.
6-ANTINO is the one that is a bit of an unknown quantity, and the impressive win strike rate is only scarred by a few unlucky runs down here, normally during the spring. Interesting to note he is 1/5 outside of Brisbane and 10/12 in Brisbane, but to be fair most of those losing runs were feature races. Is very well in the market here at $6, actually looks a little on the short side for us. Nice trial leading into this, but likely to drop to the back and give these a start. Winning chance but not a betting proposition.
7-PRIDE OF JENNI was the talk of the Autumn, and she went up a notch last campaign and proved the dashing wins were not a fluke. Only just beaten in the C.F.Orr Stakes in the autumn 1st up and she showed that day she was going to go on with it. Whilst the 1-MR BRIGHTSIDE has been the workman campaigner, she has the X factor about her and could still go on and be absolutely anything, she could be an absolute freak. Interesting she had had three trials leading into this and should be fairly forward, the question with her racing style is that it takes a lot of race fitness to pull off, so always the question mark of how aggressive they are today. One to beat here and we could be in for a great race.
8-VAGRANT has some ability but doesn’t win out of turn, and tends to drop back in the run so needs the race shape to suit. Dropped out and hit the line really well first-up, but really hard to win as a drop back horse against a teat away leader and outclassed here. No
Summary:
Great race coming up here with the two headliners up against each other and really not quite sure which way to go. On paper you would think the 1-MR BRIGHTSIDE could run down the 7-PRIDE OF JENNI first-up again over this course and distance whilst she is more vulnerable without race fitness, but need to keep in mind that she really might be an out and out freak and could do anything. Definitely the 3-GENTLEMAN ROY as the only other major danger though and suspect he is going to be right in the finish here and is actually capable of an upset. The more we look at the race the more we like his chances. Super roughie 4-BANDERSNATCH is the one to play with here in same race multis to just plug on and run a distant first four. Likely just a watch race, hard to split the top two with confidence, to be honest we will probably just have a win bet on the third pick as the value runner here.
Race 1: 3-SASSY BOOM, 4-LOVAZOU, 8-STREET DELIGHT
Race 2: 13-STEP ASIDE, 11-CARBONADOS, 1-THE OPEN
Race 3: 12-RISE TO IT, 4-STATION ONE, 14-BIG STORY
Race 4: 11-ALDER, 2-DUKE DE SESSA, 4-GEAR UP
Race 5: 7-MARBLE NINE, 2-RECOMMENDATION, 1-KALLOS
Race 6: 6-WONDER BOY, 4-ASTAPOR, 1-GROWING EMPIRE
Race 7: 2-WROTE TO ARATAKI, 12-EXPRESSIVENESS, 3-SKYBIRD
Race 8: 5-JIMMY THE BEAR, 8-FUTURE HISTORY, 14-POSITIVITY
Race 9: 7-PRIDE OF JENNI, 1-MR BRIGHTSIDE, 3-GENTLEMAN ROY
Race 10: 13-MARACANA, 11-JENNILALA, 2-ANOTHER WIL
