Tips, feature race preview and suggested bets for Moonee Valley Friday night 27/09/2024.
We will cover the feature meeting for Moonee Valley tonight and only post summary tips tomorrow for Sandown. Fine and sunny weather so we have a GOOD(4) track and invariably this meeting strongly favours those on-speed so do the form assume the leaders will be winning and double down if we are correct. This program is really missing the JRA Cup which was always a great betting race. For a MV night meeting this is actually a really good betting program, not that many short priced favourites and looks plenty of value. Pretty keen to have a bet tonight, a few runners seem to be the wrong odds.
For Spring Campaign 2024 we will post tips normally around 10am on a Saturday morning. Feature race preview at the bottom of this post.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 12-SIR SWAY $4 EW, QUINELLA: 4,9,10,12 boxed x $6= 100%
This is a pretty open betting race, but this one has been racing extremely well jumping and leading and fighting on, on dry tracks over in Adelaide. Excellent career win strike rate. Not disgraced last start being first time down the straight on a wet track on a messy racing day. MV, dry track and jump and run here suits much better. Likely to lead from inside barrier and for whatever reason Adelaide horses often run well at these night meetings. Good each way bet at around $11 and expect will start shorter. Looks a nice value quinella with the other value runner the 9-MISS ICELANDIC who will also be on-speed and ended up in the wrong spot at the back of the field last start, the favourite the talented 10-WAR MACHINE and the in-form 4-BARAQIEL if he can get across from an outside barrier.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 5-TOBEORNOTTOBE $4 EW
Super consistent type who is no fuss, will jump and run and sit handy and make his own luck. Fought out the finish well last start down the straight at Flemington in tough conditions, and probably better back to a dry track here, perfect draw to sit on speed and should be in the finish at around $6.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 11-COLEMAN $4 EW
Taking a bit of a spec at this one, but just think if they stack the speed and pressure up on front here and he is sitting behind them, he has the sprint finish to dash through here – but admittedly he will need luck from barrier 1 around a MV sprint distance. Just got the impression last start he was about to launch and then he seemed to lose his rhythm, happy to have something each way at around $20.
QUINELLA: Race 6: Race 6: 2-EVAPORATE, 5-DETROIT CITY, 7-HENIEIN boxed x $6 = 200%
There is a bit of value in the Bill Stutt Stakes and hard go past the in form 2-EVAPORATE coming off two good MV wins, but also suspect the 5-DETROIT CITY might do something here out to 1600M on a dry track. Throw in the Sydney visitor 7-HENIEIN who should run out a strong mile (and some of the more favourite runners here are a bit suspect) and we have a nice value box quinella.
BEST ROUGH: Race 1: 2-STAY FOCUSSED $2.50 EW
Sheesh punters are a fickle bunch. This one went around well in the betting market in the Group 3 McNeil at Caulfield two starts back, and ran OK, beaten by a potential superstar. Then did nothing first time down the straight on a very messy wet track which was a total forgive run. Tonight ends up going around at $14 in a MV night meeting field of 7!! Seems totally the wrong odds and suggest you get on now, should be half these odds. Blinkers on first time, has shown ability, should go forward and has the class to beat these on best form. Great rough bet on a horse that is the wrong odds.
BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 6-LADY JONES $2 EW
Short priced favourite in the last the 1-GRINZINGER BELLE should jump and lead and be extremely hard to bet, especially if the track if favouring those on-speed. But think this one will run extremely well, ended up last in the wrong spot last start and out of picture on the replays but worked home well. Normally comes to hand quickly and should jump and settle second or third here behind the leader and should work home well into the place at least at around $15.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 6: 3-DAWN SERVICE at around $3.30
Betting a bit bold here taking on a horse that is in flying form, but was definitely stopping at the end of 1400M last start (all be it in tough conditions), and even if he does lead here just wonder if he may be vulnerable late again? Prefer to back those who look like they will run a strong 1600M.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a deposit for a MV apartment.
$5 ALL UP
PLACE Race 2: 12-SIR SWAY
PLACE Race 5: 5-TOBEORNOTTOBE
PLACE Race 6: 5-DETROIT CITY
PLACE Race 8: 6-LADY JONES
These MV night meetings are always good for these sort of bets, and focusing on those who are fit and in form and on-speed. Looking at around $250 for a $5 outlay
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 5,6,7,8: 4,5,6,8,10 / 2,5 / 1,2,4,11,12 / 1,6 x $20 = 16.67%
Looks a decent quaddie for a MV night meeting. Go wide in the first leg which is an open race for some value, selections are away from the favourites in the Bill Stutt, a wide open feature race and really the favourite the 1-GRINZINGER BELLE should just about win the last but always throw one in as a back-up for the value result in the 6-LADY JONES.
Feature Race Preview: FEEHAN STAKES
Fascinating match race here between 1-MR BRIGHTSIDE and 4-PRIDE OF JENNI and coming off a classic battle last start at Flemington that will long be remembered. Obviously the 4-PRIDE OF JENNI gets a clear lead here today, with the 2-ANTINO sitting second and the 1-MR BRIGHTSIDE in the tracking position behind them and 3-ATTRITION sitting out the back. Real question is can the 1-MR BRIGHTSIDE get the same tracking run into the finish that he got last start?
Runner by Runner comments:
1-MR BRIGHTSIDE got the perfect run last start to chase down 4-PRIDE OF JENNI and really it took him the whole Flemington straight to get there, even though he looked like he was always going to chase her down – but still took a mighty effort. He was set, primed and ready to win last start and really still took everything he had to get there. Astounding 1600M record (11 wins from 18 starts) and track record, but he did have the advantage last start of a heavy track. Not that he goes worse on dry ground, but more that he is better on wet ground than his rival. Small field will help him get into the right tracking spot, and probably not much between them again, question will be on dry track with his main rival probably showing more improvement and on a possible leaders track can he run her down again?
2-ANTINO was competitive last start and has been competitive against these, but always seems to be 3-4 lengths behind the top graders. Dry ground suits better, and he did stick on pretty well behind the main two last start and likely to have plenty of improvement to come. Likely to trail the 4-PRIDE OF JENNI and you would think the two swooping around are probably better chances of running her down.
3-ATTRITION has always been a bit limited by his drop back running style, but that isn’t an issue in a four horse field. Burst through late over in Adelaide 1st up, and then did nothing here last start when out the back all the way. He probably needs to be in a handicap with a weight pull to beat these, but ridden quietly out the back if they overdo it he can actually pull off an upset here on his best form. Rough only.
4-PRIDE OF JENNI answered the critics with a stunning return to form last start and really she is so hard to get past when she is in form. Sure to have plenty of improvement to come from that run (and probably more than her main rival), she was an unknown on heavy ground last start and much better suited today on dry ground and good chance we will get a leader bias as well. Surprised she isn’t favourite and pretty sure she will be favourite come race time. A fit and in-form 4-PRIDE OF JENNI running along in front on a dry track around a tight MV circuit with a probable leader bias looks just about impossible to beat.
Summary: Fascinating race and fascinating tactics but considering it took the 1-MR BRIGHTSIDE the whole of the Flemington straight last start to run down a vulnerable 4-PRIDE OF JENNI coming off a poor run and on an unsuitable heavy track, we are pretty confident the mare turns the tables tonight. Actually think $2 is even good odds, would have thought she would start a clear favourite so actually considering having a bet (and we never back shot priced favourites). 1-MR BRIGHTSIDE for second and expecting that we may see a run from the outsider 3-ATTRITION tonight.
Feature Race Preview: MANIKATO STAKES
These feature MV sprints are always great betting races and really even fields, but so much comes down to luck in running and getting the right run at the right time, so it pays to go for well-drawn horses racing on-speed who can pounce at the turn whilst others are still looking for runs. Suspect coming off a disappointing run taking a sit they will go aggressively forward here with the 8-ESTRIELLA, so more a matter of what kicks up inside her, most likely being the 3-RECOMMENDATION and 12-GROWING EMPIRE. There is a chance the leaders could knock each other out here so watch out for those sitting in behind them, mainly the 11-COLEMAN and maybe the 4-SOUTHPORT TYCOON or the 2-VEIGHT sitting in clear running behind them.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-I WISH I WIN is a top line sprinter who ran extremely well here last start, tight track MV1000M was definitely not his thing but he was still hitting the line very strongly. Drawn wide suits this one as he can sit out the back, and loop into the race with clear running, but he will need them to be running on out wide today. Invariably they go fast in these feature sprints so the speed should be on to suit. Main issue will be if we have a strong leader’s bias, but excluding that he may be better than these given the chance. Definite winning chance.
2-VEIGHT baulked at winning a Caulfield Guineas, but may be better off as a sprinter, and won the Australia Stakes 1st up here back in January and meeting a few key rivals again from that race. Had two trials in to get ready for this, and probably box seats here in clear running behind the speed which is where you want to land in these races. Unbeaten first-up. Might be smarter as a sprinter? Looks a pretty good each way bet getting the right run in this.
3-RECOMMENDATION has won his last three races in a row, but probably some question marks about how strong his opposition was there and the 7L win first-up came on a dynamite leader’s track so the margins the last two starts are probably more realistic regards his ability. He has also been getting uncontested leads, which is unlikely to happen here, in fact there will probably be a lot of pressure up front early. He is drawn to lead from this barrier and suspect they will try, but also suspect a few are going to press forward early. Elevate if we end up with a strong leader’s bias, but bit concerned that the (2) and the (4) both ran over the top of him here late this course and distance back in January when he had kicked clear, and suspect he may fade late again here. Rough only and only if leaders are winning.
4-SOUTHPORT TYCOON ran a great race here 1st up this course and distance back in January, before going on to win the Australian Guineas. Even enough first-up in Sydney but probably better this way of going. Note that the blinkers go on first time here, which might sharpen him up. Good to the line in recent trial and if they can jump and take a forward position from a good barrier think he is a decent rough chance in this. Rough.
5-JOHNNY ROCKER is a little under-rated and did run a narrow second at long odds to a dominant MV sprinter here in the William Reid back in March. Was even enough here 1st up when back on the rails, and likely to drop well back here from an outside barrier today. 2nd up and up 200M, though dry track suits. This one does have ability, and can probably pick up a good race this spring, just not sure this is right race today and would need everything to go right. Passing.
6-CABALIUS is a capable Sydney sprinter and you would think they would go forward here today from a good barrier after making the disastrous decision last start to ride cold at the back of the field when given no chance. Can get a good sit on-speed, and really can’t judge last start at all. Trial was pretty impressive. Looks to get right run into the race and probably will be thereabouts when they turn for home, just a matter of whether he can stick it out at this level. Rough place.
7-CHAIN OF LIGHTNING SCRATCHED
8-ESTRIELLA looked to be a sprinting star on the rise back in the Autumn, but basically was disappointing here 1st up. Was ridden with a sit out wide there and suspect they will go aggressively forward here and try and cross them and put some speed into the race. 2nd up and up 200M off a disappointing run. On her best form ridden forward she would win this, but to be honest we probably just want to see her again today, thought that last run was a little underwhelming, Genuine chance, but hard to be keen today. Maybe watch the betting market for a positive move?
9-KIMOCHI is a talented Sydney visitor who showed a great turn of foot first-up to win over the 1100M and she is better over further. She is probably better suited at 1400M or 1600M and likely to drop back here Melbourne way of going and middle of the field behind runners so suspect she may have a task in this. Another with the ability to win this, but needs the right race and right race tempo and things to fall the right way.
10-CLIMBING STAR showed a lot of ability as a 3YO and then struggled for form for a few preparations but showed she was back to best with dominant first-up win last time in and went on to win a Group 1 and almost win the Goodwood. Barrier trial winner so she is forward for this. Interesting to note that patch of good form was all over in Adelaide, so would want to see her repeat that across the border. She sort of rolls into her races, she doesn’t have a dash turn of foot, and not sure MV is going to suit her. Did drop back from outside barriers last time in and likely to do the same here. Another with the talent but rough only.
11-COLEMAN does have the sprint turn of foot to win a race like this, but not sure barrier 1 is the best barrier, would have preferred a middle barrier and the gap to come and him to dive though. Showed a great turn of foot as a 2YO and then thought he was going to do the same here last start, he looked like he was about to launch and then just hung in and lost is rhythm. Will need to be ridden more forward here today to take advantage of the barrier and he is going to need luck to get the gaps at the right time, but if the gaps come he is a good chance in this if he unleashes his sprinting finish. Strong chance.
12-GROWING EMPIRE is the sprinting star of early spring and won under a hold at Caulfield 1st up before being challenged but still running away from them at Flemington down the straight. Looks to have a stack of ability and like that he has learnt to take a sit and sprint, which means he can get the perfect run today on the speed. Question mark is going to be the class first time and more pressure than in previous races, and if that brings him unstuck, but he looks the real deal. Strong chance.
13-HAYASUGI continues to be under-rated and going around at each way odds and racing well. Best run of the race here last start when he got a good trail into the race. Inside barrier not ideal for this one and can see him at the back of the field behind runners and needing a lot of gaps to open up. Note that previous wins were all coming down the outside with a strong finish. Definitely has ability, but have question marks today, bit wary to under-estimate this one though.
Summary: Track racing pattern will be crucial here, but often these Group 1 sprints are run at a fierce speed and that often over-rides any track pattern. Most of these have some winning chance given the right run into the race, but we are going to take our chances with the 11-COLEMAN here, he has the finishing sprint to win this, but will need to be ridden more forward and for the gap to open up from barrier 1. Have to rate the 12-GROWING EMPIRE who could be anything based on his form this spring and the one likely to get the best run here is the 2-VEIGHT who has the ability to win first-up. Respect for the 1-I WISH I WIN if they are running on OK (and may have the class to win this regardless). Best rough is the 4-SOUTHPORT TYCOON especially if ridden more forward with blinkers on. Happy to have something each way on the top pick and looking for value in an even fielod, and box up a quinella on these runners.
Race 1: 2-STAY FOCUSSED, 6-STOLI BOLI, 8-GALLANT SON
Race 2: 12-SIR SWAY, 9-MISS ICELANDIC, 10-WAR MACHINE
Race 3: 3-BEAST MODE, 8-FRILLED, 7-SCUDERIA
Race 4: 4-PRIDE OF JENNI, 1-MR BRIGHTSIDE, 3-ATTRITION
Race 5: 5-TOBEORNOTTOBE, 4-GEEGEES MISTRUTH, 6-MATISSE
Race 6: 2-EVAPORATE, 5-DETROIT CITY, 7-HENIEIN
Race 7: 11-COLEMAN, 12-GROWING EMPIRE, 2-VEIGHT
Race 8: 1-GRINZINGER BELLE, 6-LADY JONES, 10-MATRIARCH ROSE
