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| MOONEE VALLEY: MANIKATO STAKES - 23rd Oct 2015 |
| Track: GOOD(4) - Weather: CLOUDY - Rail: TRUE |
| Betting Portfolio ($50): Very little rain around during the week, and it is clearing up coming into the weekend. You would think they would put a bit of extra water on the track with the double meeting coming up. By Friday night this track should probably still retain a little bit of give and be on the worse side of a GOOD(4), so those who like a bit of give in the ground should have their chance. Last night meeting here for the Moir Stakes there was a very strong leaders track with the rail TRUE. Normally the rail TRUE at Moonee Valley actually favours those running on late and it can be difficult to lead all the way. However, there was also a strong on speed pattern for this meeting last year as well. For some reason MV night meetings just favour on pacers. Be prepared, be ready, and make the most of it if it does happen again and watch out for those on speed tonight. We will try and update the feature race preview later on this afternoon. Never a great meeting to bet on, and there are 18 races over the weekend so no need to go too hard tonight and keep some in reserve for Cox Plate Day tomorrow. Do think there are some nice warm up bets tonight though, so put your feet up and tune in on a chilled Friday night. RESULTS: Tips don't get warm at all, and we struggle to find a place getter even. The track strongly favours those running on late and it is very difficult to race on speed and win. Yet somehow we squeeze a profit in the Betting Portfolio with a nice value quinella! BEST WIN: Race 6: 11-TUDOR $6 WIN 2nd W=$9.70 QUINELLA: Race 6: 11-TUDOR, 7-CASHED x $2 = 200% 2nd 11-TUDOR W=$9.70, 4th 7-CASHED QUINELLA: Race 6: 11-TUDOR, 9-RELDAS x $2 = 200% 2nd 11-TUDOR W=$9.70, 1st 9-RELDAS W=$5.70, Quinella = $35.10 x 2 = $70.20 This one was incredibly unlucky at Cranbourne 1st up when he had plenty to give but was stuck on the rails. 2nd up and up 200M, but good on pace 1200M horse on his day and drawn out is a plus tonight as he can sit on speed in clear running room. Has been placed at Group 2 level over the 1200M and won under lights here before. Looks a great bet at around $8.50 and actually think he should be favourite in this. Save on quinellas with the two main dangers, the (7) and (9). RESULTS: Gets the perfect sit on the speed in clear running and boots for home nicely on the turn - on any normal track that would be enough to win. But with the track stronly favouring those running on late he gets run down in the last 50M. Still we picked up a very nice quinella for minimal outlay. BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 5-FAB FEVOLA $3 EW X QUINELLA: Race 5: 5-FAB FEVOLA#2,7,9,12 x $4 = 100% X / 1st 2-GRANE W=$6.70 Really speedy type who often looks the winner but finds one better, but think he has struck a winnable race tonight. Good MV record and his best form is over the 1000M – he tends to stop too quickly when tried up in distance. 1st up and fair bit of speed here – but we really like when they draw out in space over the MV 955M trip – half the trick is getting a clear run at the right time. Back each way at a very nice $13 and save on quinellas with the (2), (7), (9), (12) and the quinella should pay pretty well here in a wide betting race. RESULTS: Actually gets a very clear lead and was looking promising coming up to the home turn, but stops quickly. BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 1-BUFFERING $4 EW X QUINELLA: 1-BUFFERING#2,4,9 x $3 = 150% X, 1st 2-CHAUTAUQUA W=$2.30 Super honest sprinter who just jumps and runs and his win here 1st up was sensational when he beat off several sets of challengers. For a sprint race there doesn’t seem to be that much pressure up front tonight, and two of his main rivals are drop back horses who have drawn inside barriers and might need some luck. Should jump and lead here and good chance he can win again tonight. Back each way at around $7, and again let’s take some quinellas with the short priced favourite the 2-CHAUTAUQUA who might need luck from his barrier, the 4-REBEL DANE who is racing really well and due for a change of luck in these races and the roughie the 9-GRIANTE who has been racing really well and might get into the finish here at odds. Blow out in the quinella if the short priced favourite gets stuck for runs (which almost happened last start at Flemington). RESULTS: Has to work hard most of the way with one poking up on his inside, and is quickly held once they turn for home with the super star sprinter going straight past him. BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 7-RING DA BELLE $4 EW X Fitter for the 3 runs in and a good run last start at Cranbourne and she meets the winner there slightly better at the weights tonight. Maybe want to be ridden a little more forward tonight, but just looks ready to do something so back her each way at around $5.50. RESULTS: Takes a while to warm up but she is running into the race nicely in the last 50M in tight running when the gaps just close on her. Really unlucky and should have run a place at least. BEST ROUGH: Race 4: 8-KINGS PALACE $3 EW X Good run here last start when not beaten far and he should have plenty of improvement to come off that run. Drawn middle to sit back and get a nice run into the race again tonight and still has a decent win strike rate. Hard to get enthused about many of these, so think we would prefer to back something at odds and the $15 looks good – and maybe you will get $20+ on the tote come race time. RESULTS: Never looks likely. LAY OF THE DAY: Race 2: 6-ROCK FOR THE LADIES at around $2.60 1st W=$2.60 In winning form in much, much weaker grade, and lightly raced and coming into a small field here. But its the All Greys race. And we don’t really care what wins as we won’t be having a bet anyway. And no-one will care if the Lay of the Day wins this race – so might as well lay it. Convinced? RESULTS: It was the All Greys race. Who cares! TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet. $5 ALL UP PLACE BET: PLACE Race 3: 1-AKZAR X PLACE Race 6: 11-TUDOR 2nd P=$2.80 PLACE Race 7: 9-GRIANTE X PLACE Race 8: 7-RING DA BELLE X Let’s try and snare a decent collect on a night with pretty small fields and not a huge amount of value. In Race 3 the (1) should be ready to do something with the 3 runs in and he often gets left with big weights in these races, so doesn’t look too badly in tonight with 58kgs against a 55kgs minimum. He has been competitive in much better races so lets see if he can get back to his best form tonight. The 11-TUDOR looks a great standout place bet in Race 6 and we have already backed it to win, so this is some insurance. Then let’s try and blow out the dividend and throw in a roughie with the 9-GRIANTE in the feature who is going to be one of the outsiders, but really nothing wrong with her form and a lot is going to come down to luck in running in that race. Maybe they could go forward with her in a race with not that much speed? Come home on the last race top pick 7-RING DA BELLE who should be around the finish somewhere. Looking at around a $300 collect for a $5 outlay, and it would good if at least the first leg gets in and gets us on the board to start with! RESULTS: Never get warm in the first leg. The 11-TUDOR was a great stand out bet at good place odds though if you could find a few others to couple him up with. SPENT: $50 RETURN: $70.20 NET: $+20.20 |
| The Tips: Race 1: 4-STREAM AHEAD, 1-PETITE’S REWARD, 3-OUR VIDIA Race 2: 4-SECRET TOY BIZNESS, 5-TOTOLO, 2-SLATE ON EDGE Race 3: 1-AKZAR, 7-TEMPS VOLEUR, 8-KILLARNEY KID Race 4: 8-KINGS PALACE, 11-LUCKY PADDY, 2-EXCITES ZELADY Race 5: 5-FAB FEVOLA, 12-BERLUTTI, 7-BULLPIT Race 6: 11-TUDOR, 7-CASHED, 9-RELDAS Race 7: 1-BUFFERING, 2-CHAUTAUQUA, 9-GRIANTE Race 8: 7-RING DA BELLE, 4-LONG FACE GRACE, 10-LADY TATIA |
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| RACE 1: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-STREAM AHEAD 1-PETITE’S REWARD 3-OUR VIDIA |
| RACE 2: RESULTS |
| Tips: 4-SECRET TOY BIZNESS 3rd NTD 5-TOTOLO 2-SLATE ON EDGE 2nd W=$3.90 |
| RACE 3: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-AKZAR 7-TEMPS VOLEUR 8-KILLARNEY KID |
| RACE 4: RESULTS |
| Tips: 8-KINGS PALACE 11-LUCKY PADDY 1st W=$2.90 2-EXCITES ZELADY 2nd W=$4.60 Quinella: $6.90 |
| RACE 5: RESULTS |
| Tips: 5-FAB FEVOLA 12-BERLUTTI 7-BULLPIT |
| RACE 6: RESULTS |
| Tips: 11-TUDOR 2nd W=$9.70 7-CASHED 9-RELDAS 1st W=$5.70 Quinella: $35.10 |
| RACE 7: RESULTS |
| Tips: 1-BUFFERING 2-CHAUTAUQUA 1st W=$2.30 9-GRIANTE |
| RACE 8: RESULTS |
| Tips: 7-RING DA BELLE 4-LONG FACE GRACE 10-LADY TATIA |
| RACE 6: MANIKATO STAKES 1200M GROUP 1 WFA |
| Tips: |
| Others: Pace: EVEN Leaders : Handy : Back : Chances: Place: Sacking: 1-BUFFERING 2-CHAUTAUQUA 3-TERRAVISTA 4-REBEL DANE 5-TIGER TEES 6-FAST 'N' ROCKING 7-RICH ENUFF 8-SRIKANDI 9-GRIANTE 10-ALPHA MISS Summary: One to risk: Roughie: The Key: |
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