Really hard to read this meeting, with a bitterly cold day forecast and a considerable amount of rain coming with possible strong winds. May also be a lot of late scratchings if the weather continues like this. Likely tough conditions and expecting a track down grade and expect you will want to get cover and be strong late. Doing the form for a genuine wet track on the worse side. Race fitness may be crucial here and some of these races may turn into a pretty tough slog. Down the straight expecting outside to be faster with some cover from the conditions.
Some very big and even races today in tough conditions so there should be plenty of value around in the dividends and suspect some of the more favoured runners are going to get rolled today. Doubling up to $100 in the suggested bets with a few at odds we want to back, and really just need to spend a bit more and go wider on a day like this. Taking wide quinellas and sure to be some good dividends.
For Spring Campaign 2024 we will be posting the form guide at around 10am on a Saturday morning (earlier if time allows). Feature race preview at the bottom of this post.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 3-TOBEORNOTTOBE $7.50 EW, QUINELLA 3-TOBEORNOTTOBE#1,5,7,12,14 x $5 = 100%
This is always a wide open race of early 3YO fillies down the straight and think the betting market is a bit tight around the two favourites in this. Watch the racing pattern as good chance you may just want to box up the outside barriers regardless. This one is proven down the straight which is important and looks forward after a few jump outs this time in. Unknown in wet, might go forward, but would actually prefer them to take a sit today as there is a fair bit of speed here. Back each way at around $7 and nice value quinella if something at odds gets into the finish like the strong finishing 14-BLACKBERRY BOMB or the 12-THE DABBLE EFFECT drawn wide.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 17-EL ROCKO $5 EW, QUINELLA 2,4,6,8,17 boxed x $10 = 100%
Wide open race here but think the first emergency is the wrong odds. Tough, fit and in career best form and best of all he absolutely loves it wet. Weaved through and hit the line strongly last start on an unsuitable firm track. Flemington stats aren’t the best, but often they have been on firmer tracks. Get conditions to suit today and think the $18 is great odds each way. Box up a quinella with the consistent on-speed 2-BANDERSNATCH who looks perfectly suited here, the enigmatic 8-BANK MUIR who is due to win again, the in form 4-NICOLINI VITO and we always throw in the 6-EL SOLEADO as a horse we follow and he is better than the odds suggest.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 3-SEE YOU IN HEAVEN $10 EW
Classy Adelaide mare who is proven at this level and should be primed for this off the two runs in which have both been excellent. Excellent wet track stats and the conditions should be no issue and drawn to sit in clear running and swoop down the middle of the track which may be the racing pattern. Has a class turn of foot and looks ready to produce today. Back each way at around $6
BEST EACH WAY: Race 10: 6-BERKELEY SQAURE $5 EW
Really difficult horse to catch and not a horse we normally follow, but he needs a solid tempo and to be flashing home late and seems to keep his best form for here at Flemington. Did his usual finishing on strongly late run 1st up at Caulfield, handles it wet and has struck a pretty winnable race here. Should be finishing on strongly late on the last race of the day on a track that will probably be cut-up. Each way at around $10.
QUINELLA: Race 9: 11-STRETAN ANGEL# 9-RIGHT TO PARTY, 10-ARKANSAW KID x $6 = 300%
There doesn’t seem to be that much speed in this race and suspect the 11-STRETAN ANGEL will get to dictate the speed down the straight, which might make it difficult for some of the backmarkers in this. Proven in the wet, proven down the straight and coming off good jump outs and looks hard to beat at around $4.50, but let’s take a simple quinella with the other likely leader the 10-ARKANSAW KID and the strong finishing 9-RIGHT TO PARTY who just seems to love launching late down the straight.
BEST ROUGH: Race 1: 5-MOONHAVEN $4 EW, QUINELLA 1,5,7,8,12 boxed x $5 = 50%
Wide open first race but really surprised about the odds on this one. Stormed home late to win down the straight here two starts back in heavy conditions and pretty much gets the same set-up today and then was never going to be suited going around MV as a drop back horse on tight turns. Drawn wide which is probably the best place to be and looks way over the odds at around $25, suggest getting on now as will be well backed once everyone works out how wet it is. Huge value quinella in the first around the talented 1-BARAQIEL, the in-form 8-SIR SWAY leading down the outside, the 7-SHIRSHOV who looks a chance at odds and the 12-ZOURION
BEST ROUGH: Race 4: 2-DUBLIN DOWN $3 EW
Even though we have tipped the 1-GROWING EMPIRE on top here coming off a classy win, taking $1.80 about a horse first time down the straight on an extremely wet track is asking for trouble. From a punting point of view prefer to back this one at around $20, proven in wet ground and proven down the straight.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 5: 8-POINT KING at around $4
Well backed imported stayer who looks to have some potential, but just a bit concerned the last start win at MV was a little flattering when he was strongly favoured by the racing pattern swooping and really didn’t beat very much at all. In a tough slog wet track staying contest he may find one better today.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into enough to pay off the Club Stand.
TRIFECTA: Race 7: 3,7 / 1,3,7,10,13 / 1,3,6,7,10,12,13 x $5 = 12.5%
Likely to be some big quinellas and trifectas today. The 3-SEE YOU IN HEAVEN, 7-WOLLOMBI probably fight out the mares race, but there is a good chance roughie 13-RUMBLED AGAIN runs better than the long shot odds suggest along with a few other roughies which may blow out the dividend.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 7,8,9,10: 1,3,7,10,13 / 1,7,8 / 9,10,11 / 3,4,6,11 x $20 = 11.1%
Just hold off taking your quaddies till later in the day as we are likely to get some late scratchings and you don’t want to end up with the dreaded substitute. Take the main chances in the first leg and include super roughie 13-RUMBLED AGAIN and there are a few others at odds who may pop up here so that’s the best chance of a value winner. Take the selections but include a blow out in the feature race with the 7-ATISHU, the three main chances should fight out the third leg and really just need to hope a bit in the last in a very open race.
Feature Race Preview:
Another small field for the feature race and largely identical fields to the previous weeks. Really only one leader here in the 6-PRIDE OF JENNI, the 4-ANTINO can settle more forward if he jumps with them this week, the 1-MR BRIGHTSIDE in the stalking role and you would except they will ride 8-VIA SISTINA within earshot of the leader unlike in Sydney during the Autumn where the ride was heavily criticised.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-MR BRIGHTSIDE is extremely consistent and look poised to win first-up but was just run down late by one with race fitness in the (2).You would think he will have the measure of that one today with improvement to come with that run. Handles it wet so the rain is not an issue. Suited out to the 1600M today (x10 winner) and won this race last year and should get the perfect trail into the race. Actually really like the way he ran into the race last start even though he was run down late. One to beat.
2-PINSTRIPED seems to have come back in excellent form, would have won first-up at Caulfield if he had gone straight, and then race panned out perfectly last start when the race fitness was probably the key difference over his rivals. Some rain is fine, probably doesn’t want it too wet. You would think others would have more improvement, but it’s also quite possible that he has just come back better this time in and $10 about a last start Group 1 winner does seem generous odds. Rough.
3-CIRCLE OF FIRE is a Sydney Cup winner on a staying campaign, hard to see him being forward enough to be a factor in this and the small field and tactical race makes it difficult for these types.
4-ANTINO has a stack of ability, but is also racking up a stack of hard luck stories and races just don’t seem to go his way when he races down in Melbourne. Missed the start at Caulfield and was really strong late, and if he jumps today he should settle handy. Wet track no issue. Famously beaten here as an even money favourite on this day last year so may be a story if he makes amends today and wins the Group 1. Just suspect he is better off in handicaps, he is probably competitive here query on him beating some of these.
5-WARMONGER is an extremely promising staying 3YO into his 4YO spring and always interesting to see which ones go on and which ones don’t. Awful lot expected of this one, but he needed distance and a few runs to find best last time in and will probably just work home nicely here for a well beaten result. No
6-PRIDE OF JENNI is the one you need to take a stance on here – the run last start was too bad to be true, she punctured early and quickly. Racing pattern that day didn’t suit leaders regardless, but that run just wasn’t her. So we need to take a punt of whether she bounces back to form here. Her two dominant wins over spring were this track and distance and she does normally take a run or two to find best. Not sure the rain suits her, she may be a little query on a genuinely wet track and would want to see the racing pattern with the forecast wind, would be reluctant to back her if the track was racing like it was last start. Gets an easy lead here so would win this on best form. Market will be best guide, suggest wait until closer to race time to evaluate conditions and racing pattern before taking a stance on her chances.
7-ATISHU is one to be wary of here, she absolutely loves Flemington and can improve quickly here. Can quickly find form early on in her campaigns, and did work home nicely first-up up in Sydney. Will stalk these, but she just loves letting loose with her turn of foot at Flemington. Wet is no issue for her and she is the blow out chance here. Strong rough chance.
8-VIA SISTINA was quite generous odds at $11 first-up in Sydney considering she went around at $2.30 and $1.85 in her two previous starts before a break. Got a perfect run along the inside there and 1400M was always going to be on the short side. Had a full season in Australia so should be ready to go on this spring. Big track and 1600M suits, she is better over further though and always a chance something with a shorter sharper sprint could run over her here, but the conditions may play in her favour today if it’s a tough slog to the line. Strong chance, but not unbeatable.
Summary: Another WFA race where we are finding it hard to have a strong opinion or a strong interest in betting, but sure to be a great race to watch. Of course a lot of it will come down to the 6-PRIDE OF JENNI and if she returns to her best form, they definitely ride the 8-VIA SISTINA closer to the leader today so they don’t get caught napping again. Safest bet here does seem to be the 1-MR BRIGHTSIDE, he has proven himself time and time again at this level, wet track won’t worry him and really liked the way he ran into the race last start, even if he was run down late. Value runner here is the 7-ATISHU who might do something today and is capable of pulling off an upset, track and distance stats are excellent. Obvious third pick is the 8-VIA SISTINA but suspect she is going to drift towards race time and the (1) will probably challenge her for favouritism. Verdict on the 6-PRIDE OF JENNI will be made closer to race time and the betting market probably tells the story here. From a betting point of view will probably have something each way on the second pick who looks good value.
Race 1: 5-MOONHAVEN, 1-BARAQIEL, 8-SIR SWAY
Race 2: 1-WONDER BOY, 3-DETROIT CITY, 2-DAGGERS
Race 3: 3-TOBEORNOTTOBE, 1-DRIFTING, 14-BLACKBERRY BOMB
Race 4: 1-GROWING EMPIRE, 2-DUBLIN DOWN, 5-AARDVARK
Race 5: 4-MOSTLY CLOUDY, 3-HORRIFYING, 7-DASHING DUCHESS
Race 6: 17-EL ROCKO, 2-BANDERSNATCH, 8-BANK MUIR
Race 7: 3-SEE YOU IN HEAVEN, 7-WOLLOMBI, 10-RUNNING BY
Race 8: 1-MR BRIGHTSIDE, 7-ATISHU, 8-VIA SISTINA
Race 9: 11-STRETAN ANGEL, 9-RIGHT TO PARTY, 10-ARKANSAW KID
Race 10: 6-BERKELEY SQAURE, 11-POSITIVITY, 3-KING MANGUS
