Bright sunny drying day Friday, but showers forecast Friday night and again during the day Saturday so a bit hard to estimate where this track is going to end up. It could easily end up firming to a better side of SOFT(5), or deteriorating to a worse side of SOFT(6) and it does make a difference for quite a few runners so keep a close eye on the weather. We are going to assume that not as much rain as expected is going to fall for the tips below and track is better side of a SOFT(6). Rail goes back to TRUE and we should get even racing, suspect in big fields down the straight you will want to probably be drawn middle and finishing on home late off likely fast speeds.
This is quite a deep program with big fields and lots of spring horses kicking off so it’s a bit hard to line them all up at the moment, and most of the races have quite a few genuine winning chances. The races down the straight in particular are extremely open, so wide box quinellas may be the way to go. We are going to double up to $100, mainly because there is a lot to bet on today and think punters need to mix it up a little on a challenging program.
In the feature Makybe Diva Stakes, we only have a small field and tactics are going to be critical, especially with the short priced favourite the 1-I’M THUNDERSTRUCK drawing barrier (1) and likely dropping back to last in the run. Speed here is only the 4-ALLIGATOR BLOOD who might appreciate an uncontested lead, from the 7-WESTERN EMPIRE and there is plenty of opportunity here for one of the other runners to be ridden more handy than normal.
Going through the runners the 1-I’M THUNDERSTRUCK is all the rage, and is going to be suited up to 1600M and to a bigger track to suit his drop back and run on racing pattern. Impressive run on 1st up to just miss and does look the one to beat, barrier 1 the issue and the race tempo, but the small field allows plenty of time to get out and run on. More a question of at what odds is he worth backing? The 2-CASCADIAN may be rather underrated, he keeps racing consistently at this level, fair enough he can often drop too far back and run on too late, but he is building a pretty impressive feature mile record. He is definitely a Flemington horse and does seem to run much better here. His 1st up run was just as good as the favourite last start, the 1-I’M THUNDERSTRUCK was out and going for home whilst he was still stuck inside horses and he chased hard and maintained that margin to the line. He has the advantage today of being drawn outside the favourite, so he can reverse the runs and get out to clear running in the middle of the track first. Back to Flemington we actually prefer to be on him and think the difference in odds is too great comparing the last runs. The 3-REGAL POWER had a long break over late 2020 into 2021 and looked to be getting back to best form over summer over in WA. Plugged on pretty well 1st up at Caulfield and unbeaten over the 1600M. Didn’t have much market support 1st up and market is probably the best guide here as to when he will be ready to win again, suggest he probably needs this run as well, but likely won’t be far off at the finish. The 4-ALLIGATOR BLOOD does look to be back to his best form since moving to the Waterhouse stable. Probably needed a more positive ride at Caulfield when he sat off the speed and was shut out for a run just as he was about to launch into the race after they straightened, but bit unclear how well he was going though? Won an Australian Guineas this track and distance leading all the way and almost pinched a Caulfield Guineas with a similar tactic. Ridden to a clear lead here quite possible he could pinch this race, you are basically betting on whether he is back to his best form or not.
The 5-MO’UNGA has not been suited by the wet tracks in Sydney, ran a great 2nd in this race last year behind INCENTIVISE, that was coming off a last start win though. He would want a firming track, not sure what happened as the first-up run was really ordinary, so maybe watch for any market move. The 6-NONCONFORMIST is doing warm-up laps for the Caulfield Cup, better on firmer ground and probably running on late but unlikely to win. The 7-WESTERN EMPIRE stuck on well in the Memsie when he was very well backed to start favourite, excellent win strike rate and likely to get a very cosy on-speed run here. Firmer track would be a big plus for him, on a track better side of SOFT would probably be right in this, just hard to see him beating home both the (1) and (2) from last start who went straight past him in the straight. The 8-SHE’S IDEEL is a stayer resuming, generally needs a wet track to show best, but did give MO’UNGA and VERRY ELLEEGANT a scare when 1st up this time last year. Not sure they will go fast enough for her here and she wants it wet.
Small field and tactics and racing pattern the key, but they should be able to run on and win. If 4-ALLIGATOR BLOOD is back to his best he could easily jump and lead and win this, just can’t be quite sure how he is going after that run didn’t come for him last start. The 1-I’M THUNDERSTRUCK is all the rage and suited to 1600M and a smaller field, but we are pretty keen on the 2-CASCADIAN today, we have a “back him at Flemington” rule and thought his run was just as good as the favourite 1st up in the Memsie, so the $7 each way appeals instead of taking the short odds on the favourite. Drawn out in space and to get to the middle of the track first , may even settle more forward in the run and think he is a pretty strong chance of upsetting the favourite here and keen to bet.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 16-EL ROCKO $7.50 EW
Absolutely flying this time in, and unlucky not to win at Caulfield last start when was held up for runs and the winner was out and going before shooting through too late. Well drawn, can race handy and give himself every chance, at the bottom of the weights and race-fit against many that are 1st up or early on in their preparations so looks the one to beat at around $6.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 2-CASCADIAN $10 EW
Flemington horse who is going to appreciate the change in tracks and the rise to 1600M and thought his run was just as good as the favourite last start, which makes the odds of $7 each-way very appealing. Building a very consistent feature mile record and he may be a little under-rated, he often drops too far back in his races and runs on late, but good chance for a more forward ride here in a small field and actually think he is the one to beat here rather than the favourite.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 9-MOHICAN HEIGHTS $7.50 EW
QUINELLA: Race 6: 9-MOHICAN HEIGHTS#3,4,11,14,17 x $5 = 100 %
Pretty open staying race, but think this one is going to appreciate the bigger track and distance and also the likely firmer ground. Most importantly he can get an even tempo here as he is a drop back and run on horse and not suited in some of the sit and sprint races he has been running in recently. Looks a good each way bet at around $11, but not sure if the flying 14-FENGARADA is going to start after going up to Swan Hill yesterday to race and then the races being abandoned just before his race. Has been the talk of Sandown with his recent dominant wet track wins and has race fitness on most of these and will be competitive if he ends up starting. Very exciting wet tracks stayer to follow this spring. Backing the 9-MOHICAN HEIGHTS each way and anchoring in a quinella, with the main chances the 3-POINT NEPEAN and 4-INTERPRETATION, the wet tracker the 11-HIGH EMOCEAN and the 17-SAINT EUSTACE is an out and out stayer who wants a tough slog and distance.
TRIFECTA: Race 7: 5,6 / 5,6,10,12,14 / 1,3,5,6,7,10,11,12,14,15 x $14 = 21.8%
Although the feature mares race looks pretty even, the two favourites the 6-FLYING MASCOT, 5-KISSONALLFORCHEEKS do look the ones to beat and worth noting that in the last 20 years the winner of this race has come through the Cockram Stakes a whopping 15 times (and 12 times from the first five home), and they both tick this very important form box. So in an open field looks a good wide trifecta race with the two main chances to win, dangers being the 10-FOXY FRIDA (who we always follow), the improving 14-I AM BENE out to 1400M for the first time and the value runner the 12-FORUTNATE KISS and hope something at odds lobs for third for a decent dividend.
BEST ROUGH: Race 1: 5-STUPENDO $5 EW
QUINELLA: Race 1: 2,5,6,8 boxed x $6 =100%
Very open race to start the day, this one was impressive winning down the straight first-up and then competitive in some big fields on the Gold Coast when drew badly and ran on well late. Well drawn here and can position just behind the speed and burst through late at $25. Value quinella in the big even field with the 8-SPACEWALK who has good Sydney form, the 2-EL PADRINO who fought on well start, and the expensive 6-DOULL who will go around favourite in this.
BEST ROUGH: Race 8: 2-ZOUTORI $5 EW
Proven class performer down the straight, and can carry weight and win. Five times winner this track and placed 7 / 12 down the straight (and often not far off) and won 4 times when 1st up. Ran a narrow 4th (beaten less than 1 length with 59.5kgs) in this race last year, and won this race the two years prior when first-up. Drawn perfect to be a strong finisher down the middle of the track and just to stay in touch with the early speed and most importantly, needs the rain to stay way, if the track gets to the better side of soft he is right in this race at around $21.
BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 15-WHO DARES $5 EW
Really open field of 3YOs to end the day and we are going to push for this one at a whopping $51. Been competitive in both career starts and might have been beaten by a smart one last start at Sandown. Both those starts were on heavy tracks and gets to a firmer track today, though drawn wide can go forward in this and get a good on-speed run over the Flemington 1400M and might stick on well in the straight. Probably looms up at some stage in the straight, may just be a case of if something with more class comes over the top late but think he might put in a run today at long odds.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 2: 12-HEZASHOCKA at around $5
Has been racing really well and does have race fitness on these, but he just grinds and is very one-paced, and not sure if he drops too far back here in a large field from an inside barrier and struggles to take runs between horses? Also wary he is dropping 2000M back to 1700M here and although he is in better form than most of these just suspect he will struggle to win this today.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a deposit for a new Flemington racecourse apartment.
QUINELLA: Race 3: 2,6,11,12,15 boxed x $5 = 50%
The straight races look extremely open with big fields and plenty of chances. Particularly this race with 19 x 3YO fillies down the straight and anything could happen. The main chances look to be the 6-OJAI who looks the one to beat on recent form, burst through late last start to just miss, the 12-ENGLISH RIVERIA had excellent 2YO form and will lead down the inside rail and 2-SEE YOU IN HEAVEN who looks to have a fair bit of class and should get a prefect on-speed sit down the middle of the track. Value then about the rank outsider the 15-BERRY BUBBLY who flew home late last start and was SCR from a wet track recently, and might run on at $81 odds out wide from a wide barrier and the strong finishing 11-NANAGUI. Wide quinella and hope for a result.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 6,7,8,9: 3,4,9,11,14,17 / 5,6 / 2,7,8,12,17 / 3,4,6,15 x $20 = 8.33%
Wide quaddie, but good chance of a result today. First leg is wide open, plenty of value around the
9-MOHICAN HEIGHTS, 14-FENGARADA (runs?) and even the outsider 17-SAINT EUSTACE, and think you can be brave and narrow it down to just the two favourites in the feature mares race, the -FLYING MASCOT, 5-KISSONALLFORCHEEKS. Which means you can open up and take wide brackets and roughies in the last two legs like the Race 8: 2-ZOUTORI and Race 9: 15-WHO DARES and there are plenty of chances in those last two races.
Race 1: 5-STUPENDO, 8-SPACEWALK, 2-EL PADRINO
Race 2: 8-ZEYREK, 13-LYRICAL LAD, 10-SIR DAVY
Race 3: 6-OJAI, 12-ENGLISH RIVERIA, 2-SEE YOU IN HEAVEN
Race 4: 16-EL ROCKO, 8-BERMADEZ, 1-LIGHTSABER
Race 5: 2-CASCADIAN, 1-I’M THUNDERSTRUCK, 4-ALLIGATOR BLOOD
Race 6: 9-MOHICAN HEIGHTS, 14-FENGARADA (runs?), 4-INTERPRETATION, 3-POINT NEPEAN
Race 7: 6-FLYING MASCOT, 5-KISSONALLFORCHEEKS, 10-FOXY FRIDA
Race 8: 7-THE ASTROLOGIST, 2-ZOUTORI, 8-STAGEMAN
Race 9: 15-WHO DARES, 3-TIJUANA, 6-BERKLEY SQUARE
