Interesting weather heading into the weekend, warm and sunny mid-week, few showers Friday, buckets of rain forecast for Saturday so we have to try and guess when that is going to come through. At the moment the BOM best guess is that it is going to hit earlier in the day, so we could be looking at some pretty torrid conditions and a track downgrade and probably lot of late scratchings. Rail back to TRUE so we should get even racing, but the field might spread out a bit in the straight if the rain comes and they are likely to use plenty of the track. Inside rail likely to be the place to be down the straight. Maybe if the serious rain and wind does come look for horses that are hard and fit and well-drawn that will keep ploughing on.
We have a capacity field in the feature Makybe Diva stakes and it is pretty difficult to line them up with 6 of the runners first up and 8 of the runners second up. In terms of speed the 2-GAILO CHOP (1st up) and 5-GATTING (won this race last year on speed) are likely to go forward, with the 16-MIAMI BOUND sitting handy and expect to see the 11-DALASAN more forward today to make the most of the good barrier and maybe the 1-VOW AND DECLARE (1st up) and 6-LEVENDI (1st up) up near the speed. Regardless there doesn’t seem to be much pressure up front and with most of the on-speed horses being 1st up they are unlikely to roll along at any great speed. So this race could be a very dawdling affair and expect to see some hard luck stories and the winner being the horse who gets the break at the right time.
Running through the field, the 1-VOW AND DECLARE is the Melbourne Cup winner whose last three first up runs have been a 3rd, 4th and 3rd all at Flemington, and he can probably go forward here and settle in the first half of the field which will be a big plus. Won’t be anywhere near wound up heading towards the Cup, but probably will run better than the market suggests and he is a good value runner for exotics. The 2-GAILO CHOP is an old-timer know who hasn’t shown his best form a while, still competitive in the right race and leads here but will need this run. The 3-HARLEM always takes a few runs to find his best form. The 4-FIERCE IMPACT is one of the main chances, proven miler who is probably more forward than most of these and you would think the form from last race is maybe stronger than the Melbourne form and even better proven on wet ground. Up against a decent quality field here though. Still not quite sure how the 5-GATTING won this race last year at $101, goes forward from a good barrier so maybe a super long shot for value exotics. The 6-LEVENDI will need the run 1st up. The 7-KINGS WILL DREAM looks over the odds for a horse proven multiple times at this level, three time winner at Flemington and seems to keep his best form for here. 1st up run was really good when chased hard to the line and step up in distance and bigger track is a big plus. The 8-SO SI BON is one we are actually pretty good at catching and he isn’t hopeless today, excellent run 1st up down the straight with a big weight when they just went too slow in front, and even competitive effort in the Memsie. He actually ran 4th in the feature 1600M race here on Derby Day on a wet track, has drawn wide today, but think the wind and rain suits him as he does tend to plough home so any conditions that slow down the other horses is a big help.
The 9-MASTER OF WINE has big plans for the spring, and is proven on very wet ground and can probably settle first half of the field here. 1st up run in Sydney was a bit ordinary though, so would probably prefer to see a solid market move today else happy to see how he lines up the Melbourne way of going and how well he has come up this spring. The 10-WARNING will need the run, but suspect he may go a bit better than most people expect here first up so maybe another for value exotics. The 11-DALASAN was a well-documented beaten $1.40 favourite last start, did get too far back and finished on OK, but was probably a little flat 2nd up. Good barrier here and you would think they will be more positive with the ride, at least he is at each way odds today, looking over his form there are an awful lot of defeats as short priced favourite. Solid wet track form and be interesting to see what the betting market does with him today. The 12-QUICK THINKER handles it wet but needs it further and will need the run. The 13-RUSSIAN CAMELOT pretty much has the Melbourne Cup won already according to social media, horse with serious potential and absolutely strolled in in the SA Derby. Drawn wide and they probably ride him well back here in a big field and do have a concern they are not going to go fast enough for him today and with bigger spring targets in mind assuming he is not going to be as forward here as some as his rivals. The 14-PERFECT JEWEL was very impressive winning at Caulfield, strong finishing backmarker who is rising in distance sharply from 1200M to 1600M and into a very competitive race so looks well under the betting odds in this field – considering you got $14 last start against mares over 1200M, $6 today in open class at Group 1 1600M looks poor value. Concerned about the inside barrier here dropping back in a big field with no speed. The 15-PRINCESS JENNI normally needs a few runs to find her best. The 16-MIAMI BOUND is one to consider, was giving the field 6 lengths on the ridiculously wet track at MV 1st up and worked home well along the inside when not fully ridden out. She didn’t come up last preparation, but based on her spring form last year she would be right in this. Fitter for that run in, well drawn, will sit just behind the speed, handles it wet and excellent Flemington form, she is a definite rough chance in this.
This is an extremely even betting race with plenty of genuine chances and good horses going around, the slow tempo and wet track are going to be the key factors, which has us looking away from the favourite 13-RUSSIAN CAMELOT. The 7-KINGS WILL DREAM is well proven at this level, loves getting to Flemington, handles it wet and ran on really well 1st up and looks a good value top pick at around $11. Has drawn wide, but think the jockey can probably slide forward here and settle around midfield outside runners ready to make a run. The 4-FIERCE IMPACT is a specialist miler who handles it wet and presents a different form line to many of these, which may actually be the stronger form line and may be more forward than many of his rivals here heading to longer spring targets. We are going to throw in the 16-MIAMI BOUND as the roughie and third pick, it does mean taking her on trust as we can’t be sure how well she is really going, but 1st up run was good, excellent Flemington form and can sit just behind the speed here from a good barrier so we might see a return to form here today. The 11-DALASAN the other main chance, at least you are getting each way odds today, probably more forward than most of these with two runs in. We do struggle to catch him though and just looking at his form he has won 2 from 9 in Melbourne and 5 from 8 in Adelaide, fair enough the Melbourne races were mainly strong feature races but he has been beaten over here quite a few times now. Looks a really good betting race, so we will be backing the top pick to win, the roughie each way and boxing the four main chances up in a nice value quinella.
This looks a great value punting program and we have found plenty of double figure horses in the selections and expect to see some decent exotics today. It also appears the Number 7 is going to be very popular. Simple box quinella on the selections should keep you well entertained for the day. We have doubled up in the Betting Portfolio just so we can cover a lot of each way bets as it seems like a day with plenty of value around. We appreciate everyone has different financial circumstances in these troubled times, so stay home, stay safe and bet responsibly.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 2: 7-CROSSHAVEN $6 EW
QUINELLA: Race 2: 7-CROSSHAVEN# 1-IMMORTAL LOVE, 9-CROWN MINT x $3 = 150%
One that seems to have a bit of ability, winning his first two starts and then was quite noticeable he was well backed in the McNeil so the stable must have some opinion of him. He box seated nicely in that race and was fighting out a bunched finished and just got squeezed for a run near the line, finished 6th but not beaten far at all in the end. Has drawn out, but should be able to cross and sit just off the speed here which is a big plus over the Flemington 1400M. Handles it wet. Gets a slight weight turn around on the favourite the 1-IMMORTAL LOVE and just looks a nice each way bet at around $8 box seating on the speed in this. Also anchor in a quinella with the favourite and a value runner in the 9-CROWN MINT who blew the start last time but can settle handle here today from a good barrier.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 8-SHOT OF IRISH $7.50 EW
Unfortunate barrier mishap last start saw jockey Dunn badly injured, yet amazingly somehow managed to stay on board. Bold front running wet tracker on his day, and the rain is almost certainly going to come through before this race so should get conditions to suit. Did have 3 months off before last run, which wasn’t really a run so a bit hard to know exactly how forward he is, but he should lead clearly in this and most of these don’t have race fitness either, so if he is forward enough he should run and really just keep going. Not often you see a horse coming off a 47 length defeat winning next start, but we are happy to give it a go each way at around $8.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 10-MORVADA $5 EW
QUINELLA: Race 6: 10-MORVADA, 12-TRAVIMYFRIEND, 9-ROMANCER boxed x $6 = 200%
Tough, fit and very under rated leader who has placed an amazing 10 times from 11 starts over the 1400m. Fitter for the two runs in and normally holds form when he finds it. Does have to sit outside the other leader the 8-YULONG JANUARY, but not sure how well that one is going so he might end up handing up the lead in this. Always a plus to be on-speed over the Flemington 1400M. Have to say he is probably a query on a genuine wet track though, but happy to take the punt for now at around $14 which looks great value. There is also a nice value box quinella here with the consistent fit and in form wet tracker the 12-TRAVIMYFRIEND who is better off dropping in weight and the other on pace Flemington wet tracker the 9-ROMANCER.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 7: 7-KINGS WILL DREAM $6 EW
QUINELLA: Race 7: 4,7,11,16 boxed x $3 = 50%
Proven WFA performer in these sort of races, and most importantly he is a Flemington horse with three wins here. Ran on well first up when the jockey just chose the wrong path initially and had to change course, handles it wet, the wide barrier is a bit of a concern but hoping they go forward here in a big field with not much pressure up front. Has the class to win this as an early spring feature and the turn of foot to overcome a slowly run race. Back each way at around $10, and take a value quinella with the 1600M specialist the 4-FIERCE IMPACT (and the Sydney form may be better), the roughie 16-MIAMI BOUND who may just get back to her best form today and the frustrating to follow but talented 11-DALASAN.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 7-RANTING $7.50 EW
Still a maiden but looks to be a horse going places this spring. Was well backed 1st up this time in when loomed up on-speed and was cruising on the turn, but found one better and then was a surprisingly a massive betting drifter second up when dropped back to last from outside barrier (against normal racing pattern) and flew home late to finish 4th, really given no chance. Nice barrier today and much better ridden on speed, not sure they are going to go that fast in this up front and think the inside rail will be better down the straight. Each way at around $10.
BEST ROUGH: Race 4: 10-ROCK PROPHET $2 EW
Lightly raced horse who has just started improving rapidly his last few starts. Last two runs down the straight have been excellent, finishing on strongly on wet tracks and a smart one just got the gap on him here last time but he chased it home hard. Flopped back on a dry track at Caulfield, but happy to consider again back down the straight on a wet track. Not well weighted in this at all against some smart rivals, but he has race fitness on his side and most of this field is kicking off their springs so might run better than the $50 odds on offer (and suspect will drift further come race time).
BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 16-MIAMI BOUND $2.50 EW
We have made a case for this runner as roughie in the feature race, so want to have something on it. Looked to have a heap of talent as a spring 3YO and then just didn’t come up in the Autumn so forget those runs. Impossible to tell how she is going based on the one run this time in, was a bog track, dropped out a clear last by six lengths, but worked home very nicely along the rails. If she regains her best form she is right in this, Flemington form is good, wet track form is good, well drawn and sit handy in a muddling run race. Worth a little something at around $30 taking on trust that she might bounce back to her best form this time in.
BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 1-MILDRED $2.50 EW
QUINELLA: Race 9: 1,2,4,10,15 boxed x $5 = 50%
Extremely under rated filly who has won twice down the straight before and can jump and go forward from a good barrier in a big field and make her own luck. Proven on wet ground and went up to Sydney last time and also ran well. Does have to give all these weight – and she is only a small filly, but it is only 2.5 kgs and her form is better than most of these. Looks to box seat on speed, and seems well over the odds at around $16. Last race is a bit of a raffle, so let’s also have a fling at a wide box quinella with the 15-JENNI’S RAINBOW who was all the rage a few weeks back off an impressive maiden win, and suddenly is forgotten just because of a forgivable bog track run, the favourite the talented 4-MINHAAJ and two good value roughies proven down the straight the 2-A BEAUTIFUL NIGHT and the 10-STANDOFF.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 7: 14-PERFECT JEWEL at around $6
Big even talented field for the feature race and whilst this one was very impressive winning 1st up at Caulfield, that was over 1200M and against her own sex at Group level. Into a feature Group 1 here, stepping up in distance 2nd up from 1200M to 1600M, drawn an inside barrier and likely to drop back in a big field with a muddling tempo. She has a stack of ability and is going places this spring, but the $6 on offer just looks really poor odds considering how much harder this is when she started at $14 last start. Happy to risk.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into enough for twenty six million vaccine doses.
TRIFECTA: Race 5: 7,8 / 4,7,8,13,15 / 3,4,5,7,8,13,15 x $5 = 12.5%
The 8-SHOT OF IRISH and 7-TOFFEE TONGUE look the two main chances in this race, but there are some nice value roughies that could run into the places such as the 13-PRINCE ZIGGY and 15-IRISH FLAME which would mean a nice trifecta dividend in a big field if things go our way.
Race 1: 7-PERSAN, 3-EXEMPLAR, 4-SCHABAU
Race 2: 7-CROSSHAVEN, 1-IMMORTAL LOVE, 9-CROWN MINT
Race 3: 2-SAVATIANO, 5-MY GOLD BRACELET, 13-AFFAIR TO REMEMBER
Race 4: 7-BOLD STAR, 1-TOFANE, 10-ROCK PROPHET
Race 5: 8-SHOT OF IRISH, 7-TOFFEE TONGUE, 13-PRINCE ZIGGY
Race 6: 10-MORVADA, 12-TRAVIMYFRIEND, 9-ROMANCER
Race 7: 7-KINGS WILL DREAM, 4-FIERCE IMPACT, 16-MIAMI BOUND
Race 8: 7-RANTING, 1-PRAGUE, 5-EXTRA TIME
Race 9: 1-MILDRED, 15-JENNI’S RAINBOW, 4-MINHAAJ
