Fine warm spring weather heading into the weekend, but there is a change due Saturday and low, low temperatures, wind and rain forecast. At this stage it’s a bit hard to tell when that is going to come through, and much rain we are going to get. The wind however, may be a major factor, and normally on windy days at Flemington the racing pattern strongly favours those running on late down the middle of the track. Be a bit wary of leaders left exposed. Down the straight suspect you will probably want cover, and don’t ignore those darting back to the inside to make their runs.
The feature Makybe Diva Stakes is a fascinating race with barely anything separating the top three in the market who hit the line together in the Memsie. It is really hard to toss up between them too. The big difference though is that the Memsie was run at a fast speed, setting it up for the backmarkers. This race today has close to no speed, so will be a very different race. Likely possible leaders are the 5-JON SNOW, and the 9-THE TAJ MAHAL, and wonder if they might roll the dice and take the 12-GRUNT forward here with no obvious leader? The 1-HAPPY CLAPPER can also sit handy. Regardless there seems to be little pressure up front and they are likely to dawdle and turn this into a sprint home.
Going to go with the 3-HUMIDOR on top though. Go back and watch his dominant win in this race last year 2nd up – how we let him go around in the Memsie at those odds in a fast run race that would be run to suit, was a serious oversight. Will drop back to last and get cover from the wind, the slow pace won’t suit, but he has the class turn of foot to go around the field here and remember how close he came to beating WINX in the Cox Plate last year. The danger might actually be the 1-HAPPY CLAPPER, super consistent normally in these sort of races, and just got a bit lost around Caulfield 1st time last start. Flemington should suit better (as it will for many of these horses), but the big plus is that he can take a forward position here in a slowly run race and most of the main dangers are back markers – that puts him in the finish here on best form if the jockey is positive with riding tactics. 11-KEMENTARI another suited at Flemington and he is more of a 1600M horse than many of his rivals here so probably his best chance to win a feature this spring. We have been keen to follow the 10-KINGS WILL DREAM this spring, another winning chance, just slightly concerned he might be a bit more dour now and a slowly run race might not suit. Hard to find much of value away from the main chances, but something on speed will probably stick on into the finish if you can find the right horse.
For the rest of the program, there doesn’t seem to be a huge amount of value and most of the favoured runners should go close to winning. There are quite a few nice each way bets at around $6 though so spreading the suggested bets around a bit. We are keen to follow SHEEZDASHING though this spring and see where she goes, today isn’t the right race but keep an eye on her next few starts. Going to throw a few quinellas in to try and get some value on what looks a bit of a skinny day.
BEST WIN: Race 7: 3-HUMIDOR $6 WIN
QUINELLA: Race 7: 3-HUMIDOR, 1-HAPPY CLAPPER x $2 = 200%
Stick with the class horse in the feature race. There wasn’t much between a few of these last start, but he beat them and likely to do the same again here. He should be even better suited to Flemington on a track that is likely to strongly favour those running on late. Back straight out at around $4 and the main danger might actually be the (1) on speed so take a quinella away from the main chances which might pay OK.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 6-THE AUGUST $4 EW
QUINELLA: Race 4: 6-THE AUGUST#3,11,14,16 x $2 = 50%
Improving type who hasn’t done much wrong in career so far. Fitter for the two runs in and really good run last start chasing hard behind an all the way winner. Looks like the 1400M will suit and should get perfect cover here on speed from a middle barrier. Looks a really confident each way bet at around $8 and value in the quinella here where the short priced favourite the 3-BRUTAL is beatable leading on a windy day where the inside might not be the place to be. So anchor quinellas with the 11-LEONARDO DA HINCHI, the strong finishing and highly topical 14-A FIGHTING FURY and the 16-QAFILA.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 1-I AM A STAR $3 EW
QUINELLA: Race 6: 1-I AM A STAR#2,5,7,13 x $2 =50%
Class mare who is proven time and time again at this level. Fitter for the 2 runs in and she normally takes a few runs to find her best. On her best form, under this weight scale, she beats these easily so a bit surprised at the $7 odds on offer, thought she would be a clear cut favourite. Excellent run last start from outside barrier and good record here. Normally races on speed, but suspect they might drop her back here from an outside barrier if the racing pattern is favouring those running on. Back each way at around $7 and anchor in quinellas with the 2-BELLA MARTINI on speed, the tough 5-MISS GUNPOWDER, the 7-SAMOVARE who might get the race run to suit and finally the 13-PETITION gets into a race where runners on might actually be suited, after often promising and not delivering.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 11-OCEAN KNIGHT $4 EW
The favourite here, the 3-NATIVE SOLIDER is the horse to beat after a sensational all the way win from an outside barrier at Caulfield last start. But that is the way to ride wide barriers from the 1200M there, and suspect down the straight might be slightly different. We are pretty keen on the (11) here, strong finishing type who was an eye catching run coming on late out wide at MV on a dynamite leaders track. Drawn to drop back, get cover and swoop down the outside which is probably going to be the racing pattern. Each way at around $8.
QUINELLA: Race 1: 7-TIFFANY’S LASS, 3-MASTER ZEPHYR x $2
Just a play bet in the first, back the leader, and one that will be improved with the 2400M run this time in, and in a race where a lot of these are shamefully mixing their form might be a simple $10+ quinella to kick off the punting day.
BEST ROUGH: Race 2: 13-TRILLI $3 EW
There are two horses dominating the betting in this race, the (4) and the (7), but in a race with a lot of unexposed form think you want to look at some value runners. This one is a strong finishing type, who hasn’t done much wrong in her career so far and just gave the winner too big a start last start when finishing on really well. Looks to be suited with cover and finishing on late out wide here and a good value roughie at around $20.
BEST ROUGH: Race 9: 9-SEABURGE $1.50 EW
Really ordinary race to end the day and often in these races you are looking for the least worse option in a field of lots of out of form horses. This one is awfully inconsistent, but fitter for the 2 runs in and meets next to no opposition here so should be ready to do something today. Most of his best form is here, can be ridden cold from an outside barrier and just needs to be slightly not as awful as his rivals here to get into the finish at around $16.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 5: 7-KEMONO at around $3.80
Oh you are from Japan? And a racehorse? You can start favourite then. Japanese import who went OK 1st Australian start at Caulfield, but not sure it was well enough to go around a solid favourite here. Small field, but 1st time to Flemington straight, race with not much speed and really just prefer to see these do something genuine and get into the finish before jumping on the spruik import bandwagon. Happy to risk.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more.
QUINELLA: Race 2: 6,7,8,11,13 boxed x $5 = 50%
Think this is exactly the sort of race we are likely to see a value result in. We have two solid favourites in the (4) and (7), but a stack of under exposed young horses on the way up and down the straight suspect we will see one or more at odds into the finish. The ones we are keen on are the 6-SWEET ROCKETTE and 13-TRILLI, put in one of the favourites with the 7-SMART MELODY and other roughies the 8-THINE IS THE POWER and 11-CRISTAL EYES for a value result.
Race 1: 7-TIFFANY’S LASS, 3-MASTER ZEPHYR, 1-HIGH CHURCH
Race 2: 13-TRILLI, 6-SWEET ROCKETTE, 7-SMART MELODY
Race 3: 8-WAGING WAR, 1-THEANSWERMYFRIEND, 11-MAHAMEDEIS
Race 4: 6-THE AUGUST, 3-BRUTAL, 16-QAFILA
Race 5: 4-RICH CHARM, 1-HEY DOC, 8-I’M WESLEY
Race 6: 1-I AM A STAR, 13-PETITION, 7-SAMOVARE
Race 7: 3-HUMIDOR, 1-HAPPY CLAPPER, 11-KEMENTARI
Race 8: 11-OCEAN KNIGHT, 3-NATIVE SOLDIER, 1-ENCRYPTION
Race 9: 10-MR GARCIA, 15-FURRION, 9-SEABURGE
