Track is currently a GOOD(3) but there is a bit of rain forecast over Friday/Saturday and it is a bit hard to guess exactly how this track is going to come up. Suspect we will end up with a track with some give in it. Rail goes back to TRUE for the first time in a few meetings and the best ground is likely to be on the rails and think the racing pattern will favour those with good barriers and those racing on speed. Lots of straight races too, so make sure you keep an eye on the racing pattern but suspect it will be OK to be against the rails.
There should be plenty of value results today in big fields, lots of unpredictable straight races and lots of different form lines with more and more interstate visitors starting to pop up. So box up a few at odds in quinellas and doubles and look for a nice collect.
BEST BET: Race 4: 3-TASHBEEH $8 WIN
QUINELLA Race 4: 3-TASHBEEH, 4-RIZIZ x $2
QUINELLA Race 4: 3-TASHBEEH, 11-BON AURUM x $2
This one seems to be on the way up and his two runs back this time in have been excellent. Finished on well here down the straight first up and then monster effort in feature WFA race last start at huge odds when went forward on a very fast speed, hit the front in the straight and tired to just miss the placings. Should have plenty of improvement still to come and should sit handy here over the Flem 1400M which is a huge plus. Last start was extremely impressive run. Very keen today at odds of around $5 straight out. Aim for a bigger collect with some quinellas on the roughie 4-RIZIZ who should jump and lead here and 11-BON AURUM well down in the weights.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 6-DETECTIVE $3 EW
Time to start watching out for the interstate visitors and this one looks well suited today. Ran 2nd this course and distance back in the Autumn, and although drawn out he should go forward and lead here and suspect the racing pattern will suit those racing on speed. Doesn’t appear to be a huge amount of pressure up front in this and suspect he may prove hard to run down at around $9.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 5: 9-DAM READY $4 EW
Really liked the run of this one 1st up when he fought on well behind one that may be pretty smart. Drawn a good barrier and should get a perfect on pace sit here down the straight in a race that doesn’t seem to have much speed at all. Think he is one on the improve and may step up today in this harder race at around $9.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 8: 4-THAMES COURT $4 WIN
QUINELLA: Race 8: 4,6,10,12,18 x $5 = 50%
The mares race is extremely open, but that also means there is going to be plenty of value. Barriers will be crucial in a big field over the Flem 1400M, and we think the one to beat is the 4-THAMES COURT who should get a perfect on speed position. Think she is one on the improve too and 1st up run was full of promise. Sure to be plenty of hard luck stories behind her, but let’s back her straight out at around $8 and save with a box quinella in a race with plenty of value chances like the 6-JESSY BELLE and the 18-EGYPT.
BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 5-JACQUINOT BAY $3 EW
Super consistent performer who is fit and in form early in the season against a lot of WFA horses and stayers heading for later spring contests. Excellent run in the Lawrence to run 2nd and then absolutely no luck at all last week in the Dato Tan when went for a run on the turn and got shut out and then blocked for runs rest of the straight – definitely should have placed. Runs a strong 1600M and should lob on speed here again in a race with not much pressure up front. The favourite the flying 3-BLACK HEART BART is obviously the one to beat, but pretty keen to have something each way at odds on this one at around $21 after extremely unlucky last start run.
BEST ROUGH: Race 6: 11-WE’VE GOT THIS $2 EW
Smart sprinter who we haven’t seen the best of yet and was an eye catcher flying home late 1st up. Winner down the straight before and looks well suited here. Little query about his racing style, he will get well back in a race with not much speed and would want the racing pattern to allow them to run on OK, but still worth something at odds at around $13.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 6: 6-KINGLIKE at around $5
No idea why punters keep falling over themselves to back this one. He did win impressively on this day last year and has been running OK in much harder races, but really he just has not lived up to the early hype. May go better back to Flemington and down the straight, but would actually much rather back his stable mate the 5-DURENDAL at around $26 than him – he just seems well under the odds. Happy to risk.
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into a whole lot more with a silly multiple bet.
RUNNING DOUBLE: Races 8,9: 4,6,10,12 18/ 3,11 x $5 = 50%
Sure to be plenty of value in the multiples today and the last two races look wide open. We have already identified a stack of value chances in Race 8, 4-THAMES COURT, 6-JESSY BELLE, 18-EGYPT and there should be some value in the running double if the well backed, but has failed before favourite the 13-PILOTE D’ESSAI doesn’t win the 2nd leg. Would much rather back the improving 11-GABELLA or the super consistent 3-ROYAL RAPTURE and the running double dividend might blow out nicely to $100 or so.
Race 1: 7-O’LONERA, 3-BLACK TOMAHAWK, 5-REFECTORY
Race 2: 12-ARIAZ, 10-NAJMAAT, 3-HAPPY EVENT
Race 3: 6-DETECTIVE, 8-REVOLVING DOOR, 5-THROSSELL
Race 4: 3-TASHBEEH, 4-RIZIZ, 11-BON AURUM
Race 5: 9-DAM READY, 1-DEFCON, 7-DREAMS APLENTY
Race 6: 1-UNDER THE LOUVRE, 11-WE’VE GOT THIS, 10-FAATINAH
Race 7: 5-JACQUINOT BAY, 3-BLACK HEART BART, 12-RISING ROMANCE
Race 8: 4-THAMES COURT, 6-JESSY BELLE, 18-EGYPT
Race 9: 11-GABELLA, 3-ROYAL RAPTURE, 13-PILOTE D’ESSAI
