Tips, form and suggested bets for Lawrence (Liston) Stakes at Caulfield 17/08/2024
We will kick off Spring Campaign 2024 this week with the return of the $50 Betting Portfolio, the Lay of the Day and the Suggested Quaddie and more detailed feature race form.
Dry week and most of the rain forecast for Friday didn’t come and really depends how much rain comes through on Saturday, at the moment probably just a GOOD track with some give. You would think this track will cut up a bit regardless, more so if it rains during the day, and they will be coming off the rails later in the day. Thankfully we are still running 9 race cards but we will probably head back to 10 races any day now. Fairly small program with not a huge amount of value around in smallish fields so tending towards straight out win bets.
Reminder that for Spring Campaign 2024 we won’t be posting tips till Saturday morning (earlier if time allows). Feature race preview at the bottom of this post.
BEST WIN: Race 2: 3-DEVOTED $5 WIN
Very small field here and there isn’t much between the top three in the market. This one hit the line really well at first start for a new stable, and seems to like racing at Caulfield. Should be able to sit handy just off the speed here and looks a decent straight out win bet at around $4.50
BEST WIN: Race 8: 6-PINSTRIPED $5 WIN
Capable miler who looks like is being set to pick off some of the early WFA races. Competitive at this level last spring, given a few jump outs to get him ready for a first-up tilt, and will be suited finishing strongly off a strong speed here. Back straight out at around $6.50 and watch for market support for confidence.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 4: 4-AMIGO $4 EW, QUINELLA 4,10,11,14 boxed x $3 = 50%
One of the few open races of the day and this one was really strong winning weaving through the field at Sandown, after not handling the heavy at Flemington the start before and making good ground late here the start before that. Raced at a pretty high level last preparation and looks to have some ability. Nice middle draw to sit off the fast speed here and run into the race, happy to back each way at around $11. In an open race also back up with a quinella with the 11-PRINZERRO who will be hard to beat if the track stays dry, the strong finishing 14-MOOR MUMM who probably does something 1st up today and the 10-CAVALLO RAMPANTE who got the money for us last week at $15, just slightly concerned about an inside draw for a drop back horse today.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 9-BELLE SAVOIR $4 EW, QUINELLA 9#3,8,15,16 x $2 = 50%
Last race is dominated by the short priced favourite the 16-ELOUYOU who seems poor value at $2.40, especially seeing he was beaten at similar odds last run in Melbourne. This one keeps racing consistently without winning, and seems to thrive on a lot of racing. Strongest finish of the race here last start on the last race of the program on a cut-up track, and expecting a similar pattern today so have something each way at the $21 which looks value. Usually around the finish so anchor in a quinella with the favourite, and the dividend really blows out if he fails to perform, with horses like the 3-LOUNGE BAR RUBI at value, consistent 8-THE OPEN and 15-SANDPAPER in the finish.
QUINELLA: Race 1: 6-CHARMED RUN, 10-MIGHTY, 9-CUTE AS boxed x $6 = 100%
Very even first race and most of these have some chance, but the ones we like are going to sit off the speed here and run on late, and these three runners look value for a nice quinella.
BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 3-EL SOLEADO $2.50 EW, QUINELLA 3,6,8,10 boxed x $3 = 50%
First glance you would think this is too short for this one first-up and we are totally playing favourites a bit here as we have had a few good wins on this one. But think there is a bit of an unknown factor about him, his last two preparations have been outstanding, he has placed 11 of his 12 last starts, stepping up to every challenge and the only race he missed the place he went to the lead against his normal racing pattern in a Group 2 race. Might do something today first-up, as long as the speed is on and they are running on and winning, but think he will go onto win a good race this spring regardless so watch out for him. Rough chance at $20. Nice race for box quinella with the classy 8-ARKANSAW KID, the first and on-speed 6-WHO DARES and the other value runner here the 10-VAGRANT who might do something fresh.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 1: 3-DIPSY DOODLE at around $4.50
Might as well get any pain out of the way in the first race. This is a very even field and this one has consistent form, but looks a task first time Melbourne way of going, draw wide, and likely to be caught out wide on the speed. Prefer to back others.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into a new Caulfield couch.
$5 ALL UP
WIN Race 2: 3-DEVOTED
WIN Race 6: 5-KUROYANAGI
WIN Race 8: 6-PINSTRIPED
Well those all up place multis never seem to quite get there, so let’s go out all today on horses to win. Looking at around $400 for a $5 outlay
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 6,7,8,9: 5,6 /2,3,6,8,10,11 /1,6,9/ 8,9,16 x $20 = 18.5%
Hard to see the favourite the 5-KUROYANAGI getting beaten in the first leg, but throw in one other runner as a backup. Go wide in a very open second leg where the value runners are the 3-EL SOLEADO and 10-VAGRANT, and just the main chances in the last two legs to come home on.
Feature Race Preview:
For the feature Lawrence (Liston) Stakes, it is always good to watch out for those with race fitness and this field is pretty much a normal Saturday handicap with no stand out class horses in the field. Weather is going to be critical here, there are a few who don’t handle it too wet. Speed should be genuine with the 4-BUFFALO RIVER who likes to tear along in the lead (but do they do that first-up?), and the 7-GENTLEMAN ROY going forward, the 5-POUNDING should settle handy and the 9-JIMMY THE BEAR should get the perfect run into the race behind these.
Runner by Runner comments:
1-PERICLES probably has the most upside in this field, and was competitive at the top level all last campaign. Always strong at the end of his races and probably drops back just a bit first-up here, but will be suited if they are winning off the rails, which is likely. Handles it wet and probably better on a wet track. Drawn to sit back off them and swoop into the race and betting market will probably tell the story here as to how ready he is first-up, but looks hard to beat and may have a class edge on these.
2-MUNHAMEK has had a terrific last year or so and has also been unlucky a few times. Excellent distance stats, and he is strong finisher who will be suited if that is the racing pattern and the genuine speed here would suit. Has effectively been in work for a year, so although he is in peak winning form question mark is if can come back again and perform. Caulfield track stats look a little wobbly and suspect he is a better Flemington horse, although 3 of those runs were behind PRIDE OF JENNI or MR BRIGHTSIDE. Prefers a firmer track and would be some query on a wet track. Chance, but just have a few reservations today.
3-AEGON has been thereabouts, but hasn’t really lined up in his Australian runs and seems to go better over in NZ. Wet track a plus, and did run well in this race last year running on from well back for third – but really didn’t go on with it that preparation. Likely to drop back here and form is a bit hard to follow. No
4-BUFFALO RIVER seems to have been around in these races forever and is best ridden out to an aggressive lead on a wet track, and definitely has a preference for this track and distance. Given three jump outs so should be forward for this race. Does normally take a few runs to find best form though and jockey Gaudray has managed to get the best out of this one last few preparations and she doesn’t ride today. Likely to run them along here and test the race fitness of the rest, and is capable of winning, but also often isn’t a consistent betting proposition. Prefer place.
5-POUNDING is usually super consistent, but form has got a bit wobbly last two preparations. Can go forward and sit handy, but prefers it dry and normally needs a few runs in each time to show best. Passing.
6-PINSTRIPED is one who hasn’t won as many races as he should have, due to his drop back and run on racing style. Ran 2nd in this race last year and picked up a feature race last spring so well and truly up to this class. Suspect he has been set for the early WFA races and he definitely has the ability to win them. Given three jump outs so should be ready for this race first-up and the speed on here should suit especially if they are winning down the middle of the track. Strong chance.
7-GENTLEMAN ROY looked like he was going to be the next big thing back in the start of 2023 with his tough leading all the way performances. Just lost his way a bit in his preparations since then, but seems to be heading back to his best form. Really strong win last start when contested in the lead and looked vulnerable, but found again to draw away from them. His wet track stats look good, but we have always had him marked as better on a dry track. Doesn’t get the lead on his own here and good chance the inside will be off which are going to be two considerable obstacles to overcome. Reserving opinion till race time on this one as racing pattern is critical to his chances.
8-BANKERS CHOICE doesn’t win out of turn and best form is on a seriously wet track and over further. Just a warm up run here. No
9-JIMMY THE BEAR is a super tough and super consistent 1400M to 1600M horse who deserves a crack at a race like this. Strong effort in super messy conditions here last start to just get nabbed on the line, and always thereabouts when in form and handles it wet. Has race fitness on his side, and can jump and sit just off the speed here which is going to be a big plus. Test is the WFA conditions at Group 2 level, but really, he has raced and been competitive against most of this field in previous races. Often stuck carrying big weights these days, so WFA may not be that much of an each. Looks a really strong each way chance.
10-NICOLINI VITO is one we struggle to catch and is probably better on firm ground. Only just gets 1400M so a bit of a query in a fast run 1400M with tear-away leaders on a possible wet track. Previous form around these is consistent and he is probably over the odds at $26 but rough chance only.
11-HONEY GIRL is an important who has shown no form so far in Australia. Waiting.
Summary:
There doesn’t seem to be many winning chances here and a few of these are just making up numbers. Assuming they are coming off the rails we can see the 6-PINSTRIPED dashing over the top of them late off a suitable fast speed, he has the class to win this and looks primed for a first-up tilt. Keep a keen eye on the market, but suspect he will be backed. The 9-JIMMY THE BEAR should get the perfect run here and hit the lead early in the straight, question will be if he can hold off the strong finishing main dangers and the 1-PERICLES as third pick with class on his side. Hard to see anything outside these three winning and some pretty dull tips, from a punting point of view probably just back the top two picks straight out.
Race 1: 6-CHARMED RUN, 10-MIGHTY, 9-CUTE AS
Race 2: 3-DEVOTED, 7-RISE AT DAWN, 6-RHAPSODY CHIC
Race 3: 11-ALECTRONA, 5-IN HER STRIDE, 6-LOVAZOU
Race 4: 4-AMIGO, 11-PRINZERRO, 14-MOOR MUMM
Race 5: 5-BAND OF BROTHERS, 4-WONDER BOY, 3-INTEREST POINT
Race 6: 5-KUROYANAGI, 6-MADRINA, 11-JUST LIKE GABY
Race 7: 8-ARKANSAW KID, 3-EL SOLEADO, 6-WHO DARES
Race 8: 6-PINSTRIPED, 9-JIMMY THE BEAR, 1-PERICLES
Race 9: 9-BELLE SAVOIR, 16-ELOUYOU, 8-THE OPEN
