Warm weather mid-week but some serious rain forecast for Friday and again showers for Saturday so we have to make a guess on the track rating. Doing the form assuming we are looking at a track worse side of slow, the rail is staying in the TRUE position from last meeting, so they should be able to swoop and run on and win and will probably be coming off the rails sooner rather than later.
The feature Feehan Stakes can throw up some funny results, often there is a slow speed and a messy race and this is the B week away from the main spring contenders. Barriers and getting a clear run are crucial. We do have a solid tempo this year though and the 8-SHOT OF IRISH will be zooming straight to the lead and probably a long lead too which is his racing pattern. The 2-STREETS OF AVALON will also go forward, but must be a serious doubt to run on a wet track, and the 12-SOVEREIGN AWARD also dashes forward (and they often also struggle to keep her under control in the lead). That leaves the 11-ELEPHANT with the perfect trail behind the leaders, and then there is a pretty decent gap to the rest of the field who are all backmarkers.
Going through the field, the 1-BEST OF DAYS can be hard to catch these days, but wasn’t too far off them 1st up when stuck on well and had betting support. Is being ridden more forward these days and racing much better, but is a major query on a wet track (check form comments from disappointing Caulfield Cup day run last year when well in the market and etched in our betting account). The 2-STREETS OF AVALON seems to be racing like he did spring last year, impressive 1st up run followed by two disappointing runs in what should have been suitable Caulfield 1400M races. He is a major query on a wet track, and also at 1600M, but worth noting he ran well in this race last year off the same poor lead-up form. The 3-THE CHOSEN ONE is a very hot and cold stayer, who just seems to always find one better when he races over staying trips, but he won impressively 1st up this time last spring which was his last win. 1st up record is actually pretty good at 5 placings from 6 starts. Handles it wet, drawn out suits to run on out wide, will appreciate the fast speed here, but probably better on firm and just can’t catch him so hard to back with any confidence. The 4-SUPERSTORM is a very talented miler who has had one run back from a long injury break and should have plenty of improvement to come. Ran on well and just probably ran out of fitness 1st up, question is going to be a fast run 1600M on a wet track 2nd up might also bring him undone, so a bit cautious about his chances, but he will go on later this spring. The 5-SOUND is a stayer 1st up who handles it wet, but will need further. The 6-CHAPADA is a very frustrating horse to follow, keeps looming into the race like the winner – and not winning. Strike rate of 3 from 30 is starting to look very lean indeed, but actually suspect he will like the speed here and is a good value place chance for exotics.
The 7-NONCONFORMIST is going to go places this spring and is a horse to watch. Just had a set-back last spring and was playing catch-up, and not far off them at the top level in the autumn. Still very lightly raced and we haven’t seen the best of him. First-up run was excellent, when held up at the back of the field with no run, and had to dive and switch runs and was finishing on well to the line for a definite black booker. He seems to handle it wet and would love if they could ride him a bit more forward today and he would be a strong winning chance tracking into the race out wide. The 8-SHOT OF IRISH is very hard to beat when leading on a wet track and he should get conditions to suit today. He tends to run out to a long lead and just keep going, and he looks ready to win now with the three runs this time in. Run here last start as excellent as he didn’t get to lead, had to take a sit and try to get rolling a bit too late. At lot depends on the rain and racing pattern, but would suggest getting on early at the $10 if you hear the rain starting to come as suspect he will start a lot shorter than that come race time. The 9-DAWN PATROL is an international stayer first up, wet track probably suits, but does look like he will want serious ground and watch what the market says. The 10-PORT GUILLAUME similarly and doubt these internationals will do much 1st up except maybe run on late for 3rd or 4th. The 11-ELEPHANT has a bit of a boom on him, and fair enough too, got perfect trail into the race 1st up at Caulfield but also won very impressively. Won 7 from 7, but decent step up in class here, although guess you should never rule out horses rapidly improving with untapped potential. Likely to get perfect trail into the race too, sitting behind a fast speed with a gap back to the backmarkers. Strong chance, just have a feeling the unbeaten record may end today but will still run well. The 12-SOVEREIGN AWARD tends to burn to the lead and burn herself out early on in her preparations, handles it wet and amazing track and distance stats but normally needs a few runs in every time. Interesting to see if they try and hold her up and let the (8) lead, or vice versa. The 13-REALM OF FLOWERS is a very talented stayer who might go to the top level this spring, especially on wet tracks. This is too short 1st up, but will be finishing on well. The 14-SIERRA SUE is pretty under rated and had the Lawrence won on the home turn. Dashing finish when right, better on wet ground was scratched last week after a minor setback with a hoof issue. Be interesting to see if they can race her more handy here from a good barrier as she did race handy earlier on in her career. Respect her form, just suspect maybe she is better outside runners and slight question mark over the inside barrier, but will keep her safe.
Really interesting race and a lot is going to depend on the tempo that the 8-SHOT OF IRISH and 12-SOVEREIGN AWARD in the lead, suspect they are going to scoot away here, just a matter of which one gives up the front. Going to push for the 7-NONCONFORMIST on top here as value, the speed on will suit, will sitting in clear running swooping into the race and really liked the 1st up run. Hopefully they can ride him a bit more forward and be in the middle pack behind the leaders. Main danger is the 8-SHOT OF IRISH who just looks ideally suited onto a wet track with 3 runs in and is awfully hard to run down under those conditions, and wary of the potential of the 11-ELEPHANT getting a good trail into the race. Plenty of stayers who could run on into placings so maybe the 13-REALM OF FLOWERS as best rough. Pretty keen to have a straight out win bet though on the top two picks at $13 and $10 respectively who look great value, and maybe save on a exacta with the (11) from the (7) and (8) just in case.
Surprising big and open fields for a MV meeting and we are pretty keen to sink our teeth into this program as our lockdown cooking isn’t the best, and also because we can see stacks of value around so we are doubling up to $100 in the suggested bets. We have to hope there isn’t too much rain though and the meeting doesn’t get torn apart by scratchings.
BEST WIN: Race 8: 7-NONCONFORMIST $8 WIN
BEST WIN: Race 8: 8-SHOT OF IRISH $7 WIN
Pretty open feature race but we are actually happy to back our two top selections straight out, both at double figure odds. The 7-NONCONFORMIST was seriously unlucky 1st up, suited by the rise in distance, should handle it wet and is probably going to step up this spring so keen to get on – maybe just needs a more positive ride here instead of dropping back off a fast speed. The 8-SHOT OF IRISH is a seriously good front running wet tracker who is ready to win with the three runs this time in, and is very hard to beat once he gets rolling. Back them both straight out at around $14 and $10, though expect the (8) to shorten with every drop of rain that comes.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 1: 6-FORGOT YOU $7 EW
Fairly tricky opening race with an even field of 3YO stepping out to the 1500M. This one is a maiden who was SCR from Bendigo Friday and kept for this harder race. Has had a freshen up off an excellent 1st up run at Flemington when got held up behind runners and came out and worked home well and probably should have finished closer. Looks to be one on the improve, and suited here from a middle barrier swooping into the race. Each way at around $7.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 3: 5-ATHELRIC $5 EW
Really liked the run of this one here last start when he chased hard to the line off a fast tempo. Oliver in the blue colours has had a pretty good record over the last few weeks, slightly concerned about the inside barrier here and would have preferred him drawn out and swooping into the race, but let’s trust the jockey can sort that part out. Another open field, but think he is over the odds at $11 coming off a good run this track and distance.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 3-SCORCHED EARTH $7 EW
QUINELLA: Race 6: 3-SCORCHED EARTH#1,4,7 x $6 = 200%
Really promising 3YO who put in some great runs in her two year old season. 1st up run was excellent when she ad to cross from an outside barrier and go forward on a fast speed, and she stuck on well in a race that was dominated by those running on late. Winner this track and distance, unknown on wet, but should be able to clearly lead on the rails here and not sure there is that much pressure up front here at all. Confident each way bet at around $5, and suspect we will get better come race time with money for other runners. Look for extra collects on a stand out quinella with the 1-BISCAYNE BAY 1st up, who seems over the odds for the horse with actually the best form, the promising 4-MAC’N’CHEESE who is drawn to swoop late, and the 7-ZOUZARELLA who was impressive winning here at her first start a few weeks back.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 11-WICKLOW TOWN $7 EW
For some reason this one keeps going around at double figure odds, which we are not complaining about as we have had quite a few good collects on him this time in. Hard and fit, won a pretty strong midweek race last start with 61kgs and start before that at Caulfield was working home really well late (which makes you wonder why he started $12 the start after). Handles it wet, down on the minimum today with apprentice claim and drawn wide to make run into the best ground down the middle of the track. Looks a good value each way bet at around $10 to finish the day.
BEST ROUGH: Race 2: 2-SKIDDAW $3 EW
QUINELLA: Race 2: 2,4,7,11,13 boxed x $5 = 50%
Another pretty open field, and thought this one worked home OK 1st up out wide and was worth following. Normally jumps and races handy and gets the chance to do that here today from a good barrier. Wet track is a bit of a query, but wet track form may not be as bad as the summary stats show when you go through the individual runs. A little interest bet at around $25 and there should be plenty of value here in a big field where we think the favourite the 8-MR BIGHTSIDE is a winning chance, but really poor value. So box up the (2), the 4-NIKAU SPUR who will be swooping down the outside, the 7-AIR DEFENCE who has jumped and led and won at long odds here on a wet track before, the 11-ORLEANS ROCK who is suited back in distance on a wet track and the top pick the consistent on-speed tough and fit wet tracker 13-FACEMASK.
BEST ROUGH: Race 7: 18-KALKARNI ROYALE (emerg) $3 EW / 10-RIDDLE ME THAT $3 EW
QUINELLA: Race 7: 3,7,10,14,18 boxed x $5 =50%
We are keen on the 18-KALKARNI ROYALE who loves wet ground and has been racing well, was surprised how well she raced on firmer ground at Caulfield last start. Drawn out to sit in space here and run into the race at around $20, question mark she is currently fourth emergency so unlikely to make the field. So if she doesn’t run let’s substitute in the 10-RIDDLE ME THAT instead as the best roughie, strong finishing type who didn’t have the best of luck last preparation and ran a great race 1st up here last time in. Odds around $12 but expect will drift come race time. Another wide quinella in an open race with the top pick the classy 7-AWAY GAME who is well weighted from last start, the very consistent 14-BELLA NIPOTINA who loves it wet and may even string two wins together in a row, and the 3-ORDER OF COMMAND who might be the value if you can forget poor run last start and has excellent wet track form.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 6: 8-ARGENTIA at around $4
Very impressive first start winner down the straight, but looks a long striding horse and going around MV on a wet track from an inside barrier is a very different race. Plenty of up and coming fillies in this race, she may get cluttered up back on the rail here back in the field and need a lot of luck to get out and get into the race. Will probably be heavily supported and definitely have a stack of ability, just prefer to take on today.
TURF DELI WONDER BET : Here we try and turn $5 into 25 million vaccine doses, pronto.
$5 ALL UP
PLACE: Race 2: 13-FACEMASK
PLACE: Race 4: 6-BARADE
PLACE: Race 6: 3-SCORCHED EARTH
PLACE: Race 8: 8-SHOT OF IRISH
Let’s give this one more shot as this looks a good week for it, but will move onto other types of bets soon we promise. The Race 2: 13-FACEMASK should lob on-speed and loves it wet and kick us off, the Race 4: 6-BARADE will be suited swooping from a wide barrier up in distance and the Race 6: 3-SCORCHED EARTH should lead and be hard to run down. Which means we will be coming home on the wet track leader the Race 8: 8-SHOT OF IRISH who should do the right thing and score us around $300 for our lazy $5.
SUGGESTED QUADDIE:
Races 6,7,8,9: 1,3,4,6,7,9 / 7,10,14,18 / 7,8 / 3,9,10,11 x $20 = 10.42%
We got the quaddie here last week, but the short priced favourite in the last leg squashed the dividend. This is a pretty tricky quaddie, also because we are going to get a wet track, a distinct racing pattern and probably a stack of scratchings so pretty tough to do it the day before the meeting. Think you want to go wide in the first leg, although we have already backed top pick Race 6: 3-SCORCHED EARTH, this race is also the best chance of a value winner. The second leg the 7-AWAY GAME, 14-BELLA NIPOTINA look hardest to beat, but throw in the two roughies 18-KALKARNI ROYALE (emerg), 10-RIDDLE ME THAT as well. We are still happy to just go two out on the value picks in the feature, the 7-NONCONFORMIST and 8-SHOT OF IRISH and come home on the three selections in the last leg the 11-WICKLOW TOWN, 3-SKYMAN, 9-TORYJOY and a roughie in the 10-AUSSIE NUGGET for a value approximate. Quaddie probably pays OK today, depending on how many scratchings there are though.
Race 1: 6-FORGOT YOU, 4-SEALION, 3-SANDY PRINCE
Race 2: 13-FACEMASK, 2-SKIDDAW, 11-ORELANS ROCK
Race 3: 5-ATHELRIC, 2-GENERATION, 1-THREE KINGS
Race 4: 9-DEGRAVES, 6-BARADE, 12-COOLTH
Race 5: 3-PORTLAND SKY, 9-ESTA LA ROCA, 4-BOLD STAR
Race 6: 3-SCORCHED EARTH, 7-ZOUZARELLA, 4-MAC’N’CHEESE
Race 7: 7-AWAY GAME, 18-KALKARNI ROYALE (emerg), 14-BELLA NIPOTINA, 10-RIDDLE ME THAT
Race 8: 7-NONCONFORMIST, 8-SHOT OF IRISH, 11-ELEPHANT
Race 9: 11-WICKLOW TOWN, 3-SKYMAN, 9-TORYJOY
