Just a few showers heading into the weekend, but shouldn’t be enough to affect the track. Track is a GOOD(4) and probably still drying out from the abandoned meeting two weeks ago. Rail goes back to TRUE which normally means that we would get even racing, but we have had a strong on-pace bias the last two meetings here and just get the impression this track is heading towards being past its use-by date as the bulldozers move in. So watch the racing pattern, but would prefer to be on those on-speed at this stage.
We are back to calling this race the Feehan Stakes again this year (some of us are deeply set in our ways and actually never stopped, and are also really looking forward to the Craiglee Stakes next week and have already set the VCR). This can often be a very messy race, but we have got a small field this year and actually reckon it is pretty easy to line these up. Tempo is going to be crucial in a small field, and especially if the track is favouring on-pacers and we have a clear leader here in the 6-SIRCCONI with little pressure from the 3-STREETS OF AVALON and 5-MAHAMEDEIS. We simply can’t see them going fast enough here to allow some of the more favoured back markers to run into the race.
Going through the runners, the 1-HUMIDOR has bounced around three different stables in under a year and has probably been booted out of each share house for not pulling his weight doing the dishes. Out of form, normally takes a few runs to find best each time in and really need to see some promising signs before backing him again. The 3-STREETS OF AVALON we know extremely well, dry track and on-speed are his go but we have always him marked a serious query over the 1600M here. First up run was really promising, and was hoping he would be a major player early this spring. We can excuse the failure 2nd up on a wet track, which also isn’t his thing, and he was ridden too aggressively forward last week in the Memsie when he tried to lead BEGOOD TOYA MOTHER (which was a jockey tactical error), but he also stopped really quickly. We may be overanalysing a bit, but last two starts he has drifted out around the turn under pressure and don’t think that is a good sign and to be honest, we don’t think he likes the way 6-SIRCCONI rates the races. The 4-SURPRISE BABY is going to be a major player this spring, and probably should have won the Melbourne Cup last year when came from 20th (!!) on the home turn to run 5th. Hasn’t raced since last November and kicked off with a solid 4th in this race last year, weaving through a big field and chasing home hard. Really surprised he is favourite in this, he is very lightly raced with a stack of upside, but 1st up, 1600M, dropping well back around a tight MV circuit in a small field where those on-speed can dictate, really not keen at all. The 5-MAHAMEDEIS is hard and fit and racing in great form, and starting to build a good MV record, really like the way he launched off a furious tempo to win here last start. He can probably camp right on the speed here and looks some chance in this.
The 6-SIRCCONI is as hard, tough and fit as they come, and is racing in career best form. Took every centimetre for SAVATIANO to go past him in the Lawrence, and then he just missed grabbing the leader last week – he is very one paced and just couldn’t quite make up the ground quick enough, but was still a very good run. Don’t worry about this MV form, two of those runs were over 1000M and 1200M which are not suitable distances and he is clearly the one to beat here. The 7-EXASPERATE is very under rated and has been racing extremely consistently, fitter for the one run back from a spell and drawn out to swoop over them if the speed allows. Not suited at WFA, but in a small field wouldn’t be surprised if he runs a race here and has some rough chance. The 8-HARBOUR VIEWS is the class runner of the field and the one to watch the betting on, thought he would have been favourite for sure in this. Always had heaps of potential, was doing a few things wrong but seems to have put it all together now and heading for big things like the 100th Cox Plate this spring. Strange that he is $4, he has only ever started over $4 once in 10 careers starts and has been beaten favourite at $2, $2.60, $2,40 in 3 out of his 5 last starts. You would think he would be forward for this race seeing it grants exemption for the Cox Plate and that is the main spring target, so let the betting market tell the story. The 9-COMING AROUND is showing a lot of potential, good win strike rate and looks to be on an upward career path. Impressive win two starts back and then was the only horse to make ground at the lead-all-the-way slip’n’slide novelty MV meeting here two weeks ago. Not suited at WFA, but think he is a horse going places this spring and he is one we want to follow regardless.
This looks a really good betting race as we think the market has got it wrong. The 6-SIRCCONI gets a soft lead here and is going to be very hard to run down, really 4 out of his 5 previous runs he has been extremely tough to get past or just missed. The main danger is the improving 9-COMING AROUND who has found himself a quite winnable feature race here and looks to be a horse going places, he can also probably sit just behind the leaders and jockey Newitt seems to be relishing a return to feature Melbourne racing. Respect for the classy 8-HARBOUR VIEWS as third pick, suspect he will start favourite come race time. Chance to the in-form 5-MAHAMEDEIS and best roughie is the 1600M specialist 7-EXASPERATE. Very keen to bet here with a solid win bet on the top pick at around $4.50 and saving on the value main danger at around $11.
It has been a very slow start to the spring on the tipping scoreboard, but we did manage to score a nice profit in the suggested bets last week. For a Moonee Valley meeting there are some quite even and open races today and a bit of value around. We appreciate everyone has different financial circumstances in these troubled times, so stay home, stay safe and bet responsibly.
BEST WIN: Race 5: 3-AGE OF CHIVALRY $6 WIN
Really honest on-pacer who is always competitive in his races. Normally comes up pretty quickly every preparation and was a solid 1st up run last start at Caulfield when he fought on well, and is better off back to a dry track here. Small field suits, and looks to go forward here with only one other on-speed horse in the race the 9-FELICIA. His main rival the short priced favourite the 6-SHOWMANSHIP is going to be giving him a big head start here in what is likely to be a slowly race run with little pressure up front. He should have improved off this 1st up run and looks to get the perfect run here and keen to have a bet straight out at around $3.
BEST WIN: Race 8: 6-SIRCCONI $5 WIN
QUINELLA: Race 8: 6-SIRCCONI, 9-COMING AROUND x $2 = 200%
Another super tough on-pacer who is racing in career best form and deserves a feature race on his resume. He is really hard to get past when rolling on-speed, the winner just got him on the line in the Lawrence two weeks ago at Caulfield. Tough again last week when he just couldn’t quite run down the winner, just gave him too big a gap on the turn and he just grinds so can’t make up ground quickly. In a small field going forward with little pressure up front he looks the one to beat at around $4.50, but we are also quite wary of the up and coming 9-COMING AROUND who was good here on a very wet track two weeks back and looks to be going places this spring, so will have a saver quinella as well.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 6: 9-RULERSHIP $5 EW
Lots of interest in the 3YOs in this race but actually think we want to go with the other 3YO away from the favourite. Was slightly disappointing first up on a wet track, but really good last start at Caulfield back on a dry track when he didn’t get a clear run at a crucial stage. Drawn a good inside barrier here, does like to go forward, a lot of his chances will depend on what the speedy 6-WITHERSPOON does, hopefully he either leads or manages to sit outside the leader. Fitter for the 2 runs in, will get the perfect on-speed run here and will be suited if the track is favouring those on speed, so looks a solid each way bet at around $9.
BEST EACH WAY: Race 9: 10-NAIVASHA $4 EW
Very ordinary last race and a very even field with very little in the way of form or race fitness. This one has a fair bit of talent when right, and was good late behind an impressive winner at Flemington. Drawn out in clear running so can drop out and loop them and this looks at winnable race with improvement from the 1st up run. Each way at around $9.
BEST ROUGH: Race 2: 12-GHODELEINE $2 EW
QUINELLA: Race 2: 2,4,11,12,14 boxed x $5 = 50%
Very open field in the second race and there is actually a fair bit of speed as well. The 12-GHODELEINE will get a nice sit behind the speed in this, comes in at 53kgs with the apprentice claim and will carry 3kgs under the rest of the field which is a big plus. She is quite honest and likes to sit on speed and fought on well 1st up at Sandown behind a smart one. Should have a lot of improvement coming off that run and rise in distance suits. Looks to get a very nice run into the race here at around $20 and worth something at odds. In an open field it is also worth taking a wide box quinella, the 4-JITTERY JACK won impressively on the heavy(45) leaders track last start, but was just as good the start before at Flemington when went for home early and kept holding them off , the 2-SKYMAN has won impressively last two starts and will be suited by the speed on here from an outside barrier swooping, the 14-SHANDY is well drawn and in form and a strong finisher, and the 11-MELODEON has good MV form. Box them up for a good value quinella in an open field.
BEST ROUGH: Race 3: 14-JAY GATSBY $2.50 EW
Big even competitive field of 3YOs here, but this one led and kicked well at Sandown before just getting run down in the last 50M. Likely to be the leader here from an inside barrier, track may favour those on-speed, gets an apprentice claim, fitter for that run and career stats are actually pretty good. Should get a good run here for your money at around $16 in a tough race and probably better odds come race time.
LAY OF THE DAY: Race 5: 6-SHOWMANSHIP at around $2.
We may be totally being foolish, but we just don’t think the highly rated short-priced favourite in this race is worth the risk today. Was very impressive first-up and has won 6 of 7 career starts, but was out the back of the field and looking flat footed before winding up late last start at Caulfield over 1400M. Best form has been over 1400M, and just looks a funny placement dropping back to a tight turning MV around 1200M. Inside barrier, will drop back, track may favour those on-speed, there won’t be much pressure up front here in a small field, and just wonder if he might be even more flat footed this week. We have made the 3-AGE OF CHIVALRY best bet of the day, so let’s stick to our guns and just don’t think he is worth the risk at $2 and suspect he is going to drift come race time.
TURF DELI WONDER BET: Here we try and turn $5 into enough for twenty six million vaccine doses.
$5 ALL UP
PLACE: Race 1: 7-PARMIE
PLACE: Race 4: 3-ODEON
PLACE: Race 6: 9-RULERSHIP
PLACE: Race 8: 9-COMING AROUND
The Poor Man’s Quaddie seem to go best at Moonee Valley. Very even small field to start the day, but the Race 1: 7-PARMIE is normally pretty consistent and drawn out to run on late, and forget the bog track run 1st up so can hopefully get us off to a good start. The rarely winning Race 4: 3-ODEON lands a winnable race today in a small field on-speed on a dry track, the Race 6: 9-RULERSHIP should be on-speed and right in the finish and very keen to come home on the improving Race 8: 9-COMING AROUND as a value place getter in the feature race. We are pretty keen on the last three legs just need to find the right first leg to kick off on, but looking at around $400 for a $5 outlay.
Race 1: 3-HOW WOMANTIC, 7-PARMIE, 9-LADY LOFT
Race 2: 4-JITTERY JACK, 2-SKYMAN, 12-GHODELEINE
Race 3: 14-JAY GATSBY, 2-FLINDERS RIVER, 6-SUCCEED INDEED
Race 4: 3-ODEON, 6-JUNIPAL, 5-ALSVIN
Race 5: 3-AGE OF CHIVALRY, 2-MADELA EFFECT, 9-FELICIA
Race 6: 9-RULERSHIP, 8-HANSEATIC, 5-BELLA VELLA
Race 7: 2-RIVER NIGHT, 6-CLEAN MACHINE, 8-AGREEABLE
Race 8: 6-SIRCCONI, 9-COMING AROUND, 8-HARBOUR VIEWS
Race 9: 10-NAIVASHA, 4-CREEDENCE, 11-SIR PIPPIN
